Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Oh my god.

That figure is for September alone, what about the rest of the years demand?? Just going on a rough look at the graph in front of you over 50k had mortgage approval and the majority of these were FTBs so even steering the argument your way and taking a very PropQuery like look at the figures if 25k were FTBs (this is very low looking at the graph) and with your estimated (I reckon it will be less) 20k New houses built, it is still 5k short of what was needed this year up until September. So we still have 1/3 of the year left to see how many more mortgage approvals are seen. Also from your 20k new houses how many of the new houses are set aside for social housing and REITS??

So please as its getting boring proving you wrong over and over so stop and look at the bloody link I gave and stop coming up with a subset of subset to try and prove your argument its getting ridiculous the facts and figures are right in front of you but you wont look at them.

So what we know is
Mortgage approvals is up 20% year on year
Mortgage approvals are up 50% in the last 6 months
Proving Demand is up



https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

To be fair, mortgage approvals are up 20% when September 2020 is compared to September 2019. Typically early summer is busy for draw downs and Autumn is quieter. Covid has made month on month comparisons spurious due to the sharp shock it caused. As summer was all but lost this year, the economy opened up again in August and September so more approvals were put through in September 20. Also possible that quite a number of approvals were rolled over from 6 months previous.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

yes and if you read it you see only 7 are in dublin, the rest of the cuts are mostly apartments in greystones.

Well, we only know of their price cuts because they're a public company and must inform their shareholders of their plans.

Most other large developers also appear to be panicking due to the lack of demand for their units and appear to be doing their level best to offload their units to the councils before the smaller developers cop on to what's really going on in the market as per the latest report from CBRE:

"Over the last few months, there has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities. This has escalated further since Budget 2021 when the Government reiterated their commitment to reducing social housing lists over the coming years by a variety of means including long-term leasing. Several developers are at an advanced stage of negotiation with both local authorities and the Housing Agency, which will provide some much-needed social housing stock in a range of different local authority areas in due course."

Link to download the CBRE report here. The above quote is on page 6: https://www.cbre.ie/en/research-and-reports/Ireland-Bi-Monthly-Research-Report-November-2020

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you would agree that September mortgage approvals would be one of the higher months in the year? You're also assuming no other executor sales or second-hand homes enter the market. Once executor sales and second-hand homes enter the market, the supply of housing entering the market (new-builds plus non-new builds) in September will exceed the mortgage approvals from FTB.

And, that doesn't include the thousands of unsold new build homes from last year just sitting there.

Its funny a few posts ago you make an argument that mortgage approval for non first time buyers cant be taken into account as it would mean a house would be bought and sold so a zero sum game ( so I proved my argument on FTBs alone showing that we are still 5k short with only 2/3rds of the year gone) but when it comes to supply of houses the same equation cannot be used. Anyone selling a 2nd hand property still need somewhere to live. So the supply of houses do not go up when a 2nd hand property comes onto the market.


Have you any facts on these??

Props can you show me a link to the thousands of unsold houses from last year and not just one offs an actual total??

Can you show me a link to the executor sales coming into the market and same as above not just a one off but an actual total??


Demand is up and supply is down.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Its funny a few posts ago you make an argument that mortgage approval for non first time buyers cant be taken into account as it would mean a house would be bought and sold so a zero sum game but when it comes to supply of houses the same equation cannot be used. Anyone selling a 2nd hand property still need somewhere to live. So the supply of new houses do not go up when a 2nd hand property comes onto the market.


Have you any facts on these??

Props can you show me a link to thousands of unsold houses from last year and not just one offs an actual total??

Can you show me a link to the executor sales coming into the market and same as above not just a one off but an actual total??


Demand is up and supply is down.

Goodbody's said as much in the middle of last year.

From June 2019:

"There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we only know of their price cuts because they're a public company and must inform their shareholders of their plans.

you just keep shifting your argument. anyway i knew well before the announcement to shareholders, your finger isnt on the pulse clearly

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we only know of their price cuts because they're a public company and must inform their shareholders of their plans.

Most other large developers also appear to be panicking due to the lack of demand for their units and appear to be doing their level best to offload their units to the councils before the smaller developers cop on to what's really going on in the market as per the latest report from CBRE:

"Over the last few months, there has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities. This has escalated further since Budget 2021 when the Government reiterated their commitment to reducing social housing lists over the coming years by a variety of means including long-term leasing. Several developers are at an advanced stage of negotiation with both local authorities and the Housing Agency, which will provide some much-needed social housing stock in a range of different local authority areas in due course."

Link to download the CBRE report here. The above quote is on page 6: https://www.cbre.ie/en/research-and-reports/Ireland-Bi-Monthly-Research-Report-November-2020

OK so let me get this straight so companies who have been building are struggling to sell and you think their plan is to cut the price of housing but keep this information it a secret? Do you not think that they would be shouting it from the rooftops to try and sell their stock?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Goodbody's said as much in the middle of last year.

From June 2019:

"There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

So where is this supply then? Why isn't it up advertised for sale?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Goodbody's said as much in the middle of last year.

From June 2019:

"There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

So taken a 18 month out of date figure of 2.5k unsold stock. It still leaves us as of September 2020 2.5k short of houses for FTBs this year.

This also means that for the months of October, November and December there will be have to be zero FTBs applying for a mortgage and that we actually reach 20k new builds. (both of which are highly unlikely)

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So where is this supply then? Why isn't it up advertised for sale?

Probably like the build-to-rent units. All their houses and apartments are basically the same so they only need to advertise one of each unit rather than all 20, 50, 100 etc. of the total number of units they really have available for sale on MyHome.ie.

Or maybe they're one of the "several developers are at an advanced stage of negotiation with both local authorities and the Housing Agency".

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Probably like the build-to-rent units. All their houses and apartments are basically the same so they only need to advertise one of each unit rather than all 20, 50,100 etc. of the total number of units really available for sale on MyHome.ie.

OK so if something is built to rent would that not mean that it cannot be taken into the stock of houses available to buy as they are being rented?

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

So where is this supply then? Why isn't it up advertised for sale?

The numbers looks right, what was posted about new supply and sales. And it matches with PPR data.
There are properties like Build-to-Let, government programs (build or lease), self-built, that does not get sold as new property, thus sales of new properties are always lower, that construction supplies

Obviously, this doesn't mean that they are unsold empty properties. Who see it as empty unsold stocks, really doesn't understand what they speak.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So taken a 18 month out of date figure of 2.5k unsold stock. It still leaves us as of September 2020 2.5k short of houses for FTBs this year.

This also means that for the months of October, November and December there will be have to be zero FTBs applying for a mortgage and that we actually reach 20k new builds. (both of which are highly unlikely)

Well, unless they develop a vaccine for old age, a similar number of probate sales to new build units should be entering the market each year going forward.

And, it was reported today that despite all the narrative to the contrary, we will indeed manage to still build c. 20,000 new build units this year.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, unless they develop a vaccine for old age, a similar number of probate sales to new build units should be entering the market each year going forward.

And, it was reported today that despite all the narrative to the contrary, we will indeed manage to still build c. 20,000 new build units this year.

Do I need to bring up the up to date link I showed you about our age demographics proving you wrong again. We have more people up and coming looking for a mortgage/house then we do have dying I showed you this I dont know why I bother replying to you.

As for the building of 20k new homes have you a crystal ball. has anyone got a figure for completion to date.

As of Sept 2020 even with 20k new houses built this year and with out any FTBs looking for a mortgage in the last 3 months of the year we are at least 2.5k houses short of what is being demanded.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, unless they develop a vaccine for old age, a similar number of probate sales to new build units should be entering the market each year going forward.

And, it was reported today that despite all the narrative to the contrary, we will indeed manage to still build c. 20,000 new build units this year.

I just don’t get your view on demographics. When I was in school the population of Ireland was 3.5m it’s 5m today. Add on top of that the fact that there are more separate families that need housing etc. Just because people die and houses get sold does not mean that there is less demand.

Dwarf.Shortage

Its approaching do not feed territory at this point, for the good of the thread.

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

I just don’t get your view on demographics. When I was in school the population of Ireland was 3.5m it’s 5m today. Add on top of that the fact that there are more separate families that need housing etc. Just because people die and houses get sold does not mean that there is less demand.

I have gone through this with him/her ad nausem they had an out of date chart and skewed it trying to prove we had very few in an age bracket that would want new houses. They were using 2016 chart. So just for you Props

https://statbank.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=pea01

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

I just don’t get your view on demographics. When I was in school the population of Ireland was 3.5m it’s 5m today. Add on top of that the fact that there are more separate families that need housing etc. Just because people die and houses get sold does not mean that there is less demand.

Well, if the population of Ireland increased from 3.5 million in 1990 to c. 5 million today, that's an increase of 1.5 million. At an average of 3 persons per unit (one couple and one child), we only needed to build c. 500,000 units (c. 16,000 per year) over the past 30 years.

We built over 90,000 in 2006 alone. In 2007, we built 78,000. 51,724 in 2008. 26,420 in 2009.

According to the CSO:

"431,763 households stated that their dwelling was built between 2001 and 2010, an average of 43,176 per year."

And, that's only including the occupied units, so the true number built between 2001 and 2010 is far far higher.

Link here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/od/

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if the population of Ireland increased from 3.5 million in 1990 to c. 5 million today, that's an increase of 1.5 million. At an average of 3 persons per unit (one couple and one child), we only needed to build c. 500,000 units (c. 16,000 per year) over the past 30 years.

We built over 90,000 in 2006 alone.

https://statbank.cso.ie/multiquickta....aspx?id=pea01

Have you calculated the amount of housing demolished and taken out of commission in that time as well

IAmTheReign

PropQueries wrote: »

1. Most of those 7,500 jobs are gong to other cities in the EU e.g. Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt etc.

2. The article link on Glenveagh is from 08th September 2020, so hardly "outdated":

"House builder Glenveagh Properties is cutting prices on hundreds of luxury homes in Dublin and Wicklow in a sign of weak demand at the top end of the market."

Link to Glenveagh article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

Did you even read the article you linked?

'As part of its interim results for the first half of 2020, the firm said it has cut prices on more than 220 properties. The discounts apply at its Marina Village development in Greystones, Co Wicklow, and ‘The Collection’ – a seven-property portfolio on Shrewsbury Road in Dublin 4 – where prices previously hit €5m.'

7 properties in Dublin, the rest are at one development in Wicklow

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

https://statbank.cso.ie/multiquickta....aspx?id=pea01

Have you calculated the amount of housing demolished and taken out of commission in that time as well

I don't think it's part of his interest.

If there are 100 new birth, 50 new families, 10 death. I know exactly to which number he is interested in.
If most age group of population are growing, but some age group is falling. I know exactly which group of people he will pick up.
If 95 projects are selling well on the asking price, but 5 projects struggling. I know exactly which projects he will be interested in discussing property market situation.
If he finds huge numbers of vacancy, there is no interest what that vacancy means. If some of them are really vacant long-term in livable conditions, that's the only interest to defend vacancy, no interest what other majority means.

With such selective cases, it doesn't seem such people has any interest to discuss the reality of current property market.

PropQueries

In relation to the commercial office market in Dublin, apparently almost half of the Office of Public Works’ leased properties are due to expire over the next five years.

The OPW stated that "with the Government already committed to having 20 per cent of the public service working remotely, and with more employees wishing to do so in light of the pandemic, it says there are “real opportunities” to re-examine the State’s approach to office accommodation to realise savings for the Exchequer."

The link to the Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-urged-to-review-opw-office-leases-in-light-of-covid-crisis-1.4401158

How can office space in Dublin now be valued as even if they have a blue chip tenant, come the next lease break, the tenant will have their choice of office spaces to relocate to? The state basically is the market for the commercial office space sector in Dublin and they're now looking to get out.

wowy

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the commercial office market in Dublin, apparently almost half of the Office of Public Works’ leased properties are due to expire over the next five years.

The OPW stated that "with the Government already committed to having 20 per cent of the public service working remotely, and with more employees wishing to do so in light of the pandemic, it says there are “real opportunities” to re-examine the State’s approach to office accommodation to realise savings for the Exchequer."

The link to the Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-urged-to-review-opw-office-leases-in-light-of-covid-crisis-1.4401158

How can office space in Dublin now be valued as even if they have a blue chip tenant, come the next lease break, the tenant will have their choice of office spaces to relocate to? The state basically is the market for the commercial office space sector in Dublin and they're now looking to get out.

Hold on with your hyperbole there. The article itself says that OPW leases 345,000 sqm, of which 58% is in Dublin (200,000 sqm), half of which will expire/break in the next 5 years. That's 100,000sqm over 5 years up for renewal, which is a fraction of the Dublin office market. Plus, it's not like the state is looking to walk from each leased property - the suggestion is a reduction of up to 10% in property costs (either through reduced rents or reduced floor areas).

Perhaps it would be good not to exaggerate every single reported piece of property/economic/business news to try to back up your claims of the imminent fatal collapse of the property market.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't think it's part of his interest.

If there are 100 new birth, 50 new families, 10 death. I know exactly to which number he is interested in.
If most age group of population are growing, but some age group is falling. I know exactly which group of people he will pick up.
If 95 projects are selling well on the asking price, but 5 projects struggling. I know exactly which projects he will be interested in discussing property market situation.
If he finds huge numbers of vacancy, there is no interest what that vacancy means. If some of them are really vacant long-term in livable conditions, that's the only interest to defend vacancy, no interest what other majority means.

With such selective cases, it doesn't seem such people has any interest to discuss the reality of current property market.

I just put my thoughts out there. I don't see where the upset is coming from. I just reply whenever people call whatever point I was making idiotic etc.

In 2011, landlords couldn't let their residential investment properties for free and commentators at the time were saying that it would take decades to get rid of the oversupply of housing from the boom years. The so-called demographic argument figures were all available to those same commentators who were saying it would take decades to get rid of the oversupply in 2011 so the current housing 'under-supply' due to demographics argument is definitely not valid IMO.

Then, three short years later, those same tenants that could rent for free in 2011 couldn't find a place to rent if they wanted to.

There's only a few things that happened in the interim that could have reversed such a situation so quickly IMO:

1. AirBnB was much much bigger than any of the analysis shows; or

2. Those €200 Billion in property and business loans purchased by the so-called vulture funds soaked up all the excess housing supply and have kept most of it off-market (for whatever reason) up until now.

The 8,000 Google jobs or the 4,000 Facebook jobs definitely don't account for the shortage. We're building c. 60,000 new residential units between 2019, 2020 and 2021. That's enough new housing to give every single person working in Google and Facebook a home of their own 5 times over.

Therefore, at the moment, I would believe the current housing 'under-supply' is due to a combination of points 1 and 2 above.

It's an opinion and is open to change but I haven't read anything so far to contradict it.

Idbatterim

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the commercial office market in Dublin, apparently almost half of the Office of Public Works’ leased properties are due to expire over the next five years.

The OPW stated that "with the Government already committed to having 20 per cent of the public service working remotely, and with more employees wishing to do so in light of the pandemic, it says there are “real opportunities” to re-examine the State’s approach to office accommodation to realise savings for the Exchequer."

The link to the Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-urged-to-review-opw-office-leases-in-light-of-covid-crisis-1.4401158

How can office space in Dublin now be valued as even if they have a blue chip tenant, come the next lease break, the tenant will have their choice of office spaces to relocate to? The state basically is the market for the commercial office space sector in Dublin and they're now looking to get out.

great to hear, given you know that these fools would sign outrageously expensive leases etc.Why build on your own sites, when you can rent them off zero tax vulture funds instead :rolleyes:

the less commercial there is a need for, the better in a way, if many can work from home. It can divert sites and labour to residential, where is needed far more than anywhere else...

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I just put my thoughts out there. I don't see where the upset is coming from. I just reply whenever people call whatever point I was making idiotic etc.

In 2011, landlords couldn't let their residential investment properties for free and commentators at the time were saying that it would take decades to get rid of the oversupply of housing from the boom years. The so-called demographic argument figures were all available to those same commentators who were saying it would take decades to get rid of the oversupply in 2011 so the current housing 'under-supply' due to demographics argument is definitely not valid IMO.

Then, three short years later, those same tenants that could rent for free in 2011 couldn't find a place to rent if they wanted to.

There's only a few things that happened in the interim that could have reversed such a situation so quickly IMO:

1. AirBnB was much much bigger than any of the analysis shows; or

2. Those €200 Billion in property and business loans purchased by the so-called vulture funds soaked up all the excess housing supply and have kept most of it off-market (for whatever reason) up until now.

The 8,000 Google jobs or the 4,000 Facebook jobs definitely don't account for the shortage. We're building c. 60,000 new residential units between 2019, 2020 and 2021. That's enough new housing to give every single person working in Google and Facebook a home of their own 5 times over.

Therefore, at the moment, I would believe the current housing 'under-supply' is due to a combination of points 1 and 2 above.

It's an opinion and is open to change but I haven't read anything so far to contradict it.

Your thoughts and very limited view and stats (most of which are outdated and misleading) have been false and your obviously trying to mislead people and you have some kind of agenda. That is where people have an issue when your proven wrong you just dont respond you move to the next link that might prove your theory that we are going to have a huge property crash in the next couple of months. I think people should really just ignore you if you keep this approach up

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

I just put my thoughts out there. I don't see where the upset is coming from. I just reply whenever people call whatever point I was making idiotic etc.

In 2011, landlords couldn't let their residential investment properties for free and commentators at the time were saying that it would take decades to get rid of the oversupply of housing from the boom years. The so-called demographic argument figures were all available to those same commentators who were saying it would take decades to get rid of the oversupply in 2011 so the current housing 'under-supply' due to demographics argument is definitely not valid IMO.

Then, three short years later, those same tenants that could rent for free in 2011 couldn't find a place to rent if they wanted to.

There's only a few things that happened in the interim that could have reversed such a situation so quickly IMO:

1. AirBnB was much much bigger than any of the analysis shows; or

2. Those €200 Billion in property and business loans purchased by the so-called vulture funds soaked up all the excess housing supply and have kept most of it off-market (for whatever reason) up until now.

The 8,000 Google jobs or the 4,000 Facebook jobs definitely don't account for the shortage. We're building c. 60,000 new residential units between 2019, 2020 and 2021. That's enough new housing to give every single person working in Google and Facebook a home of their own 5 times over.

Therefore, at the moment, I would believe the current housing 'under-supply' is due to a combination of points 1 and 2 above.

It's an opinion and is open to change but I haven't read anything so far to contradict it.

You absolutely read it
All of the reports contradicts your estimates. None of the reports gives needs of supply less 20K properties a year.
You politely ignoring it.

"The paper finds that around 34,000 dwellings would be required per year until the end of the next decade assuming unchanged household formation rates. This scenario is based on net inward migration of 30,000 per annum, a figure in line with the levels of inward migration observed in 2017 and 2018. Assuming a lower level of net inward migration of 10,000 per annum, annual average housing demand is estimated at around 26,500 per annum out to 2030."
https://www.centralbank.ie/news-media/press-releases/press-release-economic-letter-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-10-december-2019

Bubbaclaus

Goodbody report expects house prices to fall by 1.7% next year, after pretty much being flat this year. Pretty steady, as has been the case since late 2018.

TheSheriff

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Goodbody report expects house prices to fall by 1.7% next year, after pretty much being flat this year. Pretty steady, as has been the case since late 2018.

Was listening to Pascal on RTE today, he made a statement that they were willing to continue current measures through 2021 is necessary; so I'd expect 2021 to be similar to this year i.e. little movement up (or down).

cnocbui

TheSheriff wrote: »

Was listening to Pascal on RTE today, he made a statement that they were willing to continue current measures through 2021 is necessary; so I'd expect 2021 to be similar to this year i.e. little movement up (or down).

That's big of him, however I'm not.

handlemaster

<SNIP>