Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

combat14

interesting to get european wide perspective on property trends and predictions

Surge in European house prices stokes concerns over market resilience

Financiers worry that fallout from pandemic will catch up with soaring valuations

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/surge-in-european-house-prices-stokes-concerns-over-market-resilience-1.4402155?mode=amp

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Employers won’t mandate how many days per week you wfh. Only a fool would think that. My employer is increasing its office space in Dublin to accommodate more staff. There will be no shared desks, everyone gets their own desk. Policy hasn’t been defined but it’s been made clear people can go to Ireland five as many days per week as they want and there won’t be full time wfh. It’s about flexibility.
What wfh technologies need to be invested in? Most employers had DR plans so people can all wfh if required.
How many people live in places that are suitable for wfh? Can you have a permanent desk in a stupid or 1 bed? Can everyone afford a 2 bed and use the spare room as an office? What about people in house shares? 4 people in a 4 bed house? How does that work?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe you said a while back that your company was giving up leased space in two office buildings to move their staff into an existing one they currently lease?

Graham

Mod Note

folks a friendly reminder.

If you're posting a link to something, there's an expectation that you will add your own commentary/interpretation.

Please don't post the same link in multiple posts.

Thanks

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Just last week the commercial director of Microsoft Ireland said the following:

“People talk about this Covid-related remote working being something exceptional and that we’ll soon return to normal,” said Aisling Curtis, commercial director for Microsoft Ireland. “But I don’t think that we’re going back to what we used to regard as being normal.”

Link here: https://m.independent.ie/business/technology/microsoft-research-predicts-a-permanent-irish-office-exodus-39704093.html

Given that Dublin is primarily a services and not manufacturing based economy, it just takes a small percentage of employers to embrace WFH to significantly impact on both the commercial and residential real estate markets in the city.

Have you actually read that article rather than choosing one select snippet?

It also states facebook and Google who employ 12k in Dublin will not be moving to a full time remote working model.

Surprise surprise , we'll have a blended policy in the future.

Also, for context, the article im speaking about about talks about 12 MNCs wanting staff back in the office, your referring to a comment made by one MNC.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe you said a while back that your company was giving up leased space in two office buildings to move their staff into an existing one they currently lease?

I will gladly correct you.... again. Giving up an office and increase floor space in another. Headcount is increasing. Still trying to get about 110 people back from India plus more jobs to come next year.
What you should do is spend the next hour going back on posts to fact check. Worthwhile use of a Sunday afternoon.

M256

TheSheriff wrote: »

There's literally an article linked above stating MNCs want staff back in the office.

I think that article was about MNCs not wanting their staff working remotely from different tax jurisdictions. This is not the same as not wanting them working from home in Ireland.


Can I assume that those not supporting WFH have vested interest in city center properties?

Hubertj

M256 wrote: »

I think that article was about MNCs not wanting their staff working remotely from different tax jurisdictions. This is not the same as not wanting them working from home in Ireland.


Can I assume that those not supporting WFH have vested interest in city center properties?

I just have a pain in my hole being stuck in my spare bedroom/office. Much perefee being around people.

Ursabear

My own experience is that the company I work for have expanded during the pandemic and everyone is WFH, there was always a small amount of people who WFH but it has gone very smoothly with everyone doing WFH, and it has saved having to find more office space as would have been the case. However have no insight into how the bosses feel about it personally. I believe a large amount of my industry will be WFH except for certain management roles going forward. A lot of my friends in tech also believe their companies will offer WFH going forward.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I just have a pain in my hole being stuck in my spare bedroom/office. Much perefee being around people.

I fully understand how some people currently working from home being annoyed about working in their spare bedroom, kitchen etc.

But, equally, it’s only been c. 9 months. How long before people start investing a relatively small amount of money in converting their attic space etc. into a proper WFH space.

This will make WFH a lot more bearable for many people currently living in 3 bed semis where the attic hasn’t been converted yet.

This can all happen in a very short period of time and then working from home 3 days a week becomes bearable and the norm going forward.

Pelezico

My son and his GF are hoovering up the coin during lockdown. They now have a veritable warchest for that elusive house. He told me they have been saving 1500 per month each since beginning of March.

This has been cruel. Some people in high tech, pharma jobs have done incredibly well. Others in local industry and service sector have lost very heavily.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

My son and his GF are hoovering up the coin during lockdown. They now have a veritable warchest for that elusive house. He told me they have been saving 1500 per month each since beginning of March.

This has been cruel. Some people in high tech, pharma jobs have done incredibly well. Others in local industry and service sector have lost very heavily.

The vast majority of people currently working for multinationals in Ireland would already be homeowners so I don’t see how the demand from this group will influence the housing market going forward.

We will be building c. 60,000 new residential units in 2019, 2020 and 2021. That’s enough new housing units to give every single employee currently working in both Google and Facebook their very own home 5 times over.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

The vast majority of people currently working for multinationals in Ireland would already be homeowners so I don’t see how the demand from this group will influence the housing market going forward.

We will be building c. 60,000 new residential units in 2019, 2020 and 2021. That’s enough new housing units to give every single employee currently working in both Google and Facebook their very own home 5 times over.

There is a constant supply of young graduates in these companies similar to my son and his gf who will pay good money to buy a house.

No scrimping for a deposit is necessary. They can save a deposit in less than a year if they really want to.

Clearly, this wont account for the massive house construction taking place in ireland for immigration which will never happen.

He is happy though.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

The vast majority of people currently working for multinationals in Ireland would already be homeowners so I don’t see how the demand from this group will influence the housing market going forward.

We will be building c. 60,000 new residential units in 2019, 2020 and 2021. That’s enough new housing units to give every single employee currently working in both Google and Facebook their very own home 5 times over.

Any evidence to support your first sentence? Guarantee you don’t because you made it up.

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

My son and his GF are hoovering up the coin during lockdown. They now have a veritable warchest for that elusive house. He told me they have been saving 1500 per month each since beginning of March.

This has been cruel. Some people in high tech, pharma jobs have done incredibly well. Others in local industry and service sector have lost very heavily.

I have a colleague who was travelling up from mullingar daily. Reckons he is saving an additional €1,100 per month. He had been saving to buy a house back in Dublin so wfh has really helped with his deposit.

Pelezico

Hubertj wrote: »

Any evidence to support your first sentence? Guarantee you don’t because you made it up.

One of my son's friends in his company arrived at the house in a brand new Audi a few weeks ago.

This guy lives at home and has enormous spending power...not interested in buying a house yet.

There are loads like him...all wedged up with coin.

woejus

Pelezico wrote: »

My son and his GF are hoovering up the coin during lockdown. They now have a veritable warchest for that elusive house.

March to December €3000 per month is €24000, hardly a "warchest", it's less than 5% of a €500k property. It will be swallowed up in two rounds of bidding with "another buyer", real or imagined. An experienced EA will relieve them of their savings in no time, using such tactics.

You're also of the assumption that your son and SO are the only ones saving in such a manner, and that they're the only ones in the market for an "elusive house".

Browney7

woejus wrote: »

March to December €3000 per month is €24000, hardly a "warchest", it's less than 5% of a €500k property. It will be swallowed up in two rounds of bidding with "another buyer", real or imagined. An experienced EA will relieve them of their savings in no time, using such tactics.

You're also of the assumption that your son and SO are the only ones saving in such a manner, and that they're the only ones in the market for an "elusive house".

Its not that people will have more money to buy due to having accumulated extra cash. Its more they have been able to gather a deposit together thus enabling them to get mortgage approval and thus increasing the pool of buyers. Added to this of course is the expansion of the HTB scheme to be 10% of a new build up to a 30k refund which again brings more people into the buying net.

PropQueries

Browney7 wrote: »

Its not that people will have more money to buy due to having accumulated extra cash. Its more they have been able to gather a deposit together thus enabling them to get mortgage approval and thus increasing the pool of buyers. Added to this of course is the expansion of the HTB scheme to be 10% of a new build up to a 30k refund which again brings more people into the buying net.

But there’s less than 250,000 employees in total working for multinationals in Ireland. The average salary is c. €60,000. Many would have been employed since the 1980s so would already be homeowners. We’re building 60,000 new units between 2019, 2020 and 2021.

For such demand, even if it existed, to drive up house prices, we would need to stop building new homes immediately and no probate sales would need to enter supply over the next two years.

They may have extra savings, but I don’t see this resulting in higher house prices going forward IMO.

Either way, I would assume most multinational employees who aren’t homeowners yet, would already be renting fairly decent accommodation so if they do buy it just frees up their existing decent rental property back into the market resulting in a zero sum impact on the demand/supply dynamics?

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

But there’s less than 250,000 employees in total working for multinationals in Ireland. The average salary is c. €60,000. Many would have been employed since the 1980s so would already be homeowners. We’re building 60,000 new units between 2019, 2020 and 2021.

For such demand, even if it existed, to drive up house prices, we would need to stop building new homes immediately and no probate sales would need to enter supply over the next two years.

They may have extra savings, but I don’t see this resulting in higher house prices going forward IMO.

Either way, I would assume most multinational employees who aren’t homeowners yet, would already be renting fairly decent accommodation so if they do buy it just frees up their existing decent rental property back into the market resulting in a zero sum impact on the demand/supply dynamics?

Again, your zero sum impact on the demand/supply dynamics has been rubbished several times here already.

Its not worth it anymore.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Again, your zero sum impact on the demand/supply dynamics has been rubbished several times here already.

Its not worth it anymore.

Apologies, I didn’t realise that when someone who was previously renting a home buys a new home, their old rental property is immediately demolished and removed permanently from the housing market.

Bubbaclaus

This thread is actually unreadable.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

But there’s less than 250,000 employees in total working for multinationals in Ireland. The average salary is c. €60,000. Many would have been employed since the 1980s so would already be homeowners. We’re building 60,000 new units between 2019, 2020 and 2021.

For such demand, even if it existed, to drive up house prices, we would need to stop building new homes immediately and no probate sales would need to enter supply over the next two years.

They may have extra savings, but I don’t see this resulting in higher house prices going forward IMO.

Either way, I would assume most multinational employees who aren’t homeowners yet, would already be renting fairly decent accommodation so if they do buy it just frees up their existing decent rental property back into the market resulting in a zero sum impact on the demand/supply dynamics?

We will build nowhere near that tbf

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

We will build nowhere near that tbf

We’re already two thirds there. Contrary to the narrative put out here that the construction of new homes all but stopped this year, we’re still going to build c. 20,000 this year.

Irish times from 5th November here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-completions-to-reach-20-000-but-analysts-warn-of-future-impact-1.4400965?mode=amp

Pelezico

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

This thread is actually unreadable.

Thank you for this post. If you dont like the thread which I think is great fun start your own.

Better still...start your very own website.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Apologies, I didn’t realise that when someone who was previously renting a home buys a new home, their old rental property is immediately demolished and removed permanently from the housing market.

No need for apologies PropQueries, but if those rentals are not entering the sales market it's apples and oranges.

But you've been told this already, multiple times, on multiple forums....

One rental becoming available does not equal one property for sale.

Pelezico

woejus wrote: »

March to December €3000 per month is €24000, hardly a "warchest", it's less than 5% of a €500k property. It will be swallowed up in two rounds of bidding with "another buyer", real or imagined. An experienced EA will relieve them of their savings in no time, using such tactics.

You're also of the assumption that your son and SO are the only ones saving in such a manner, and that they're the only ones in the market for an "elusive house".

Let's see how the market goes next year.

Donald Trump

Browney7 wrote: »

Its not that people will have more money to buy due to having accumulated extra cash. Its more they have been able to gather a deposit together thus enabling them to get mortgage approval and thus increasing the pool of buyers. Added to this of course is the expansion of the HTB scheme to be 10% of a new build up to a 30k refund which again brings more people into the buying net.

There is also a difference to how people see their earned savings in the bank vs. extra money on a mortgage.


Paying an extra 50k on a mortgage .... maybe that's an extra 100 quid a week....and sure in a few years that will seem like nothing (or so you tell yourself)


But the difference between leaving yourself with 50k in the bank vs. draining it to increase your bid is, psychologically, for some, a lot more difficult.

Hubertj

woejus wrote: »

March to December €3000 per month is €24000, hardly a "warchest", it's less than 5% of a €500k property. It will be swallowed up in two rounds of bidding with "another buyer", real or imagined. An experienced EA will relieve them of their savings in no time, using such tactics.

You're also of the assumption that your son and SO are the only ones saving in such a manner, and that they're the only ones in the market for an "elusive house".

Perhaps the poster is saying an additional €3k per month on top of whatever else they were saving. I think anyone who is fortunate enough to be in secure employment during 2020 would be able to make additional savings...

Cyrus

M256 wrote: »

I think that article was about MNCs not wanting their staff working remotely from different tax jurisdictions. This is not the same as not wanting them working from home in Ireland.


Can I assume that those not supporting WFH have vested interest in city center properties?

That’s not what the article is about and it’s not that long the least you could do is read it before making an ill informed comment

And the answer to your second question is in my case at least a firm no

Pelezico

Hubertj wrote: »

Perhaps the poster is saying an additional €3k per month on top of whatever else they were saving. I think anyone who is fortunate enough to be in secure employment during 2020 would be able to make additional savings...

There is a whole bunch of people on here talking about how hard it is to save a deposit. They even go so far as to suggest life is on hold, even meaningless until they can buy their house.

What I am saying is that there are others and plenty of them who can save a deposit in a year.