Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

There's currently 44 properties to let on Daft.ie in Waterford City. Majority of students on remote learning until October 2021 and no AirBnB rental opportunities.

Any ideas on why Waterford City would have so few rentals available?

Because people need somewhere to live, pandemic or no pandemic, college or no college.

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Because we had rental properties in the area and my brother's still do
I also know one landlord with a small block of 6 apartments
They normally go within a few weeks
Last one was 3 months moving and a deal was done
I keep an eye on the market in these areas both sales and rental out of curiousity

So they still rented even if it took a little longer and considering lockdown and the protection afforded to tenants during lockdown would this not of made sense that it took longer as in why would you move to a different accommodation when you can stay where you are rent free without being turfed out? What deal was done have you numbers?

Pelezico

The Irish Times and Daft are shills for the property market. It has always been so, since the tiger years.

Property porn has it gone away.

The dream home and aspirational language will always be with us.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

So they still rented even if it took a little longer and considering lockdown and the protection afforded to tenants during lockdown would this not of made sense that it took longer as in why would you move to a different accommodation when you can stay where you are rent free without being turfed out? What deal was done have you numbers?

I have but without going into details it was roughly an 8,5% reduction over the year

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

I have but without going into details it was roughly an 8,5% reduction over the year

Just out of curiosity D3/5 would be in the RPZ so how does that work out for your bro say in 2 years time when we are back to normal no covid etc will they have to work off the new figure for increases or have they looked into that?? So your experience is not what Props is coming up with that people are just leaving property off the market instead of renting at a lower price?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

There's currently 44 properties to let on Daft.ie in Waterford City. Majority of students on remote learning until October 2021 and no AirBnB rental opportunities.

Any ideas on why Waterford City would have so few rentals available?

No idea, it's not a market I'm familiar with and I've no notion of the typical level of vacancies in Waterford.

Hubertj

Given the constantly changing regulatory framework around rentals - rent freezes, eviction bans, etc - i presume this would factor into a landlord putting an apartment or house on the market. On 1 hand you are losing rental income but on the other you are risking an expensive asset by releasing it to the market (obviously there are always risks but them seem to be more relevant at present).

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity D3/5 would be in the RPZ so how does that work out for your bro say in 2 years time when we are back to normal no covid etc will they have to work off the new figure for increases or have they looked into that?? So your experience is not what Props is coming up with that people are just leaving property off the market instead of renting at a lower price?

Has not affected my brother's yet as they have not lost tenants
The lad I know with the six apartments still has the headline rent on the lease but over the year he will not get it all
If things go back to normal he will work off his headline rate if he can get it

AssetBacked2

fliball123 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity D3/5 would be in the RPZ so how does that work out for your bro say in 2 years time when we are back to normal no covid etc will they have to work off the new figure for increases or have they looked into that?? So your experience is not what Props is coming up with that people are just leaving property off the market instead of renting at a lower price?

Ah the phrase Waiting for Godot comes to mind with the "say in 2 years when we are back to normal". There is no return to normal with the economy and in particular with the property market after covid if by "normal" you mean what we had just before the lockdowns were introduced. An 8% reduction on rents achieved in 2019 would be good going in 2 years.

fliball123

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Ah the phrase Waiting for Godot comes to mind with the "say in 2 years when we are back to normal". There is no return to normal with the economy and in particular with the property market after covid if by "normal" you mean what we had just before the lockdowns were introduced. An 8% reduction on rents achieved in 2019 would be good going in 2 years.

When I say back to normal I mean we are not in lockdown or threat of lockdown. When rentals, tourism, airBnb and student accommodation will be back in play, considering all of that 8% actually seems quite modest

Leozord

well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket?

on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

When I say back to normal I mean we are not in lockdown or threat of lockdown. When rentals, tourism, airBnb and student accommodation will be back in play, considering all of that 8% actually seems quite modest

But it will be most likely the 2022/2023 academic year before international students (there's over 5,000 in UCD alone) will be returning in any significant numbers as they would need to make their decision by early next year at the latest to be enrolled for the 2021/2022 academic year.

In relation to AirBnB, they will need to apply for planning permission to remain in the STL market and there were reports a month or so ago that very few had applied for it. Given that AirBnB now pass their clients information on to the revenue, it would be a risky move to continue renting on the AirBnB etc. platforms without such planning in place IMO. Unless there's a loophole somewhere, which wouldn't surprise me.

fliball123

Leozord wrote: »

well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket?

on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future

yeah just seen that there look I think weather your a bull, bear, opportunist, or pessimist when it comes to property price I think we can all agree that this is great news

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But it will be most likely the 2022/2023 academic year before international students (there's over 5,000 in UCD alone) will be returning in any significant numbers as they would need to make their decision by early next year at the latest to be enrolled for the 2021/2022 academic year.

In relation to AirBnB, they will need to apply for planning permission to remain in the STL market and there were reports a month or so ago that very few had applied for it. Given that AirBnB now pass their clients information on to the revenue, it would be a risky move to continue renting on the AirBnB etc. platforms without such planning in place IMO. Unless there's a loophole somewhere, which wouldn't surprise me.

I think this might put a fly in your theory I think we will be back to normal, students, tourists etc by this time next year if this is true

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1109/1176940-pfizer-covid-vaccine/

cubatahavana

fliball123 wrote: »

I think this might put a fly in your theory I think we will be back to normal, students, tourists etc by this time next year if this is true

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1109/1176940-pfizer-covid-vaccine/

Some good news at last. Hopefully we will start seeing the end of the tunnel soon enough

PommieBast

Leozord wrote: »

well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket?

on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future

That's just speculators playing their usual games. There is still a world of difference between a non-peer-reviewed claim of 90% effectiveness and it being universally available.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

I think this might put a fly in your theory I think we will be back to normal, students, tourists etc by this time next year if this is true

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1109/1176940-pfizer-covid-vaccine/

Hopefully the vaccine is proven to work. But I can't see international students, tourist numbers etc. returning to 2019 levels until at least 2022.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Hopefully the vaccine is proven to work. But I can't see international students, tourist numbers etc. returning to 2019 levels until at least 2022.

Really well maybe we should do one of those polls here that if a verified vaccine came into play in the next year and you took it would you go on holidays next year. I have a feeling you would easily get 80% + people going on holiday. If anything I reckon there will be a tidal wave of people going abroad. You may be right with international students but then again if I was a student and wanted to study in say the U.S or the U.K I would be looking to get over a.s.a.p. and get my life going again. Maybe I am just weird in wanting things to go back to normal where you can travel, work and study where ever you want?

Cyrus

fliball123 wrote: »

Really well maybe we should do one of those polls here that if a verified vaccine came into play in the next year and you took it would you go on holidays next year. I have a feeling you would easily get 80% + people going on holiday. If anything I reckon there will be a tidal wave of people going abroad. You may be right with international students but then again if I was a student and wanted to study in say the U.S or the U.K I would be looking to get over a.s.a.p. and get my life going again. Maybe I am just weird in wanting things to go back to normal where you can travel, work and study where ever you want?

indeed

the more likely occurance rather than a 2-3 year wait for things to go back to normal is that people will party like its 1999 for 6-9 months.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

indeed

the more likely occurance rather than a 2-3 year wait for things to go back to normal is that people will party like its 1999 for 6-9 months.

absolutely the amount of things that I have missed out on this year.

Wedding in Oz and Dublin
Christening
80 Bday
3 21sts
2 Communions.

All of which the people involved will be having a get together of some form for it once we are in the clear. So I will be heading to Oz as a priority once a vaccine is in place. Not to mention the idea of going somewhere hot, nice pool, cold beer and nice food has been dancing in my head for a good 6 months. Nothing like not being able to do something to make you want to do it more.

WhenPigsCry

fliball123 wrote: »

absolutely the amount of things that I have missed out on this year.

Wedding in Oz and Dublin
Christening
80 Bday
3 21sts
2 Communions.

All of which the people involved will be having a get together of some form for it once we are in the clear. So I will be heading to Oz as a priority once a vaccine is in place. Not to mention the idea of going somewhere hot, nice pool, cold beer and nice food has been dancing in my head for a good 6 months. Nothing like not being able to do something to make you want to do it more.

Don't count on getting a vaccine before next summer. Even if it's as effective as they're saying - fingers crossed - frontline health staff have to get it as a priority, and there are some challenges distributing it (it has to be stored/transported in extremely cold temps.)

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

absolutely the amount of things that I have missed out on this year.

Wedding in Oz and Dublin
Christening
80 Bday
3 21sts
2 Communions.

All of which the people involved will be having a get together of some form for it once we are in the clear. So I will be heading to Oz as a priority once a vaccine is in place. Not to mention the idea of going somewhere hot, nice pool, cold beer and nice food has been dancing in my head for a good 6 months. Nothing like not being able to do something to make you want to do it more.

This just seems more and more like just before the last bust and all this talk of what people are going to do with their "savings" etc. is a bit premature in IMO:

"According to estimates based on the latest Department of Finance figures, the 1.13 million SSIA savers are likely to share a total payout of almost €15 billion when their accounts mature between May 2006 and May 2007."

Link to Irish Times article from 2005: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ssia-scheme-may-cost-state-3-billion-as-savings-boosted-1.408294

Of course some have saved a bit, but an article on CIE last week said they have no reserves left if such an event ever happened again and they already have a €550 Million pension deficit to deal with.

That's just one example and next years hoped for party won't make up for all those businesses that lost a years profits this year. The Government's going to have to claw back all this expense at some stage and probably in the form of higher property taxes or other hidden taxes, charges etc.

As ye all know, I don't believe the demand for buying or renting a home was there at the start of this year and I would believe this will start to feed into and be shown in the housing (renting or buying) statistics before the end of this year.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

As ye all know, I don't believe the demand for buying or renting a home was there at the start of this year and I would believe this will start to feed into and be shown in the housing (renting or buying) statistics before the end of this year.

chances are, that at some stage over the the 10 year timeline you have given, you might be right.

just so we are 100% clear, you believe that house prices on average will trade at circa 50% of their value today in 5-10 years time correct?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

chances are, that at some stage over the the 10 year timeline you have given, you might be right.

just so we are 100% clear, you believe that house prices on average will trade at circa 50% of their value today in 5-10 years time correct?

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

It's based on my belief that there's not many around who can pay today's prices for all those houses that will come on the market in South Dublin over the next ten years due to the coming explosion in probate sales.

OfflerCrocGod

PropQueries wrote: »

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

LOL.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

It's based on my belief that there's not many around who can pay today's prices for all those houses that will come on the market in South Dublin over the next ten years due to the coming explosion in probate sales.

grand and that 75% is where, nationwide, or just DLR ?

poker--addict

interest rates to go up or down?:D

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

This just seems more and more like just before the last bust and all this talk of what people are going to do with their "savings" etc. is a bit premature in IMO

The roaring 20s followed the Spanish Flu pandemic and with it a a decade of unprecedented growth and prosperity.

PropQueries

poker--addict wrote: »

interest rates to go up or down?:D

Up. I believe they will overshoot their inflation targets, panic and interest rates will jump up to at least 5% in the next 5 years

cubatahavana

PropQueries wrote: »

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

It's based on my belief that there's not many around who can pay today's prices for all those houses that will come on the market in South Dublin over the next ten years due to the coming explosion in probate sales.

75? That's good. I will be moving to Dalkey with a week's worth of wages in a few years. I will tell my wife. She'll be happy