Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

cnocbui wrote: »

Sale agreed doesn't mean a sale will proceed and doesn't prevent someone making a higher offer.

Sorry sale agreed means that the 2 parties have agreed a sale and its highly unlikely that a higher bid will be accepted...

random_banter

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Was there any decrease?
I haven't seen any price drop in 2020, as of now prices are slightly higher than beginning of the year

This is completely anecdotal but may be of interest to some. I've been tracking 70+ properties in South Dublin that have caught my eye over the year. Many of these went SA and some have now come onto the PPR.

Of the 18 I have selling prices for, 6 of them went for over asking, between 2.4%-7.5%. The rest went for under asking, between .7%-7.5%. The average is a decrease, -.7% under asking in the period between March-Sep (this is when the properties I'm tracking went SA and are starting to trickle into the PPR).

The sample size is obviously too small to take any real conclusions, and it's in a unique area - South Dublin, 3 bed houses and Semi-Ds which will always be a micro market of its own. The average isn't helpful either - some properties went for a large discount or a large increase over asking. Asking ranges between 500-700k.

I did notice that it was the properties that were either in walk-in condition or had amazing expansion potential that went for well over asking. It supports the narrative of a certain set of buyers being desperate to get out of small homes or family homes to have some space due to the pandemic.

Don't know if it's helpful for anyone, but there it is.

The most recent properties on my list (the last month or two) seem to be higher asking prices than similar properties in April/May. Perhaps taking advantage of the situation.

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

Sorry sale agreed means that the 2 parties have agreed a sale and its highly unlikely that a higher bid will be accepted...

I know what it means, and that wasn't the case with my house. the seller was very glad to hear from me as the buyer was messing them around. I got it for the same price as the sale agreed person was offering, too.

The EA was an entirely different matter - they were the one who didn't want to tell the vendor there was another, superior expression of interest.

Cyrus

random_banter wrote: »

This is completely anecdotal but may be of interest to some. I've been tracking 70+ properties in South Dublin that have caught my eye over the year. Many of these went SA and some have now come onto the PPR.

Of the 18 I have selling prices for, 6 of them went for over asking, between 2.4%-7.5%. The rest went for under asking, between .7%-7.5%. The average is a decrease, -.7% under asking in the period between March-Sep (this is when the properties I'm tracking went SA and are starting to trickle into the PPR).

The sample size is obviously too small to take any real conclusions, and it's in a unique area - South Dublin, 3 bed houses and Semi-Ds which will always be a micro market of its own. The average isn't helpful either - some properties went for a large discount or a large increase over asking. Asking ranges between 500-700k.

I did notice that it was the properties that were either in walk-in condition or had amazing expansion potential that went for well over asking. It supports the narrative of a certain set of buyers being desperate to get out of small homes or family homes to have some space due to the pandemic.

Don't know if it's helpful for anyone, but there it is.

The most recent properties on my list (the last month or two) seem to be higher asking prices than similar properties in April/May. Perhaps taking advantage of the situation.

yes i think people are increasingly wary of the costs of renovations and will pay a premium to avoid them, so walk in is best, expansion potential is next and no potential is a much harder sell!

fliball123

cnocbui wrote: »

I know what it means, and that wasn't the case with my house. the seller was very glad to hear from me as the buyer was messing them around. I got it for the same price as the sale agreed person was offering, too.

The EA was an entirely different matter - they were the one who didn't want to tell the vendor there was another, superior expression of interest.

yeah well this happens best thing to do if a property is sale agreed ring the EA every week about the property see how its progressing and see if there are similar properties, it shows the EA your actually willing and ready to move. A lot of people contacting are nosey or just thinking about the move and not actually ready for it

Mic 1972

cnocbui wrote: »

I know what it means, and that wasn't the case with my house. the seller was very glad to hear from me as the buyer was messing them around. I got it for the same price as the sale agreed person was offering, too.

The EA was an entirely different matter - they were the one who didn't want to tell the vendor there was another, superior expression of interest.

That wasn't the case for me tho. I was told it was too late for an offer.
I'm seeing properties on MyHome that have been there for ages, have inquired them already and was told they are gone.
They are still there now.

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Well if they are busy and have enough people ringing them and actually displaying an obvious interest on a daily/weekly basis why would they ring you?. If I was you I would check the EA of the property that you like on my home and actually check the agents website, they tend to update these more regularly so you will know if the property is still in play but it is annoying that some properties are left up ad available when they are sale agreed

That wasn't my point. A previous poster said that AEs leave houses on MyHome long after they are gone because it attracts potential buyers.
I'm a potential buyer who have inquired a number of properties that were "already gone" and the EA didnt' call me back to propose other options.

So there seems to be no apparent reason why a property is left on the market after sales agreed

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That wasn't my point. A previous poster said that AEs leave houses on MyHome long after they are gone because it attracts potential buyers.
I'm a potential buyer who have inquired a number of properties that were "already gone" and the EA didnt' call me back to propose other options.

So there seems to be no apparent reason why a property is left on the market after sales agreed

yeah but you have to see it from the EAs side say a house is going for 250k its gone sale agreed and your offering another 10k what does the EA get?? very little is the answer. They have already gone through the bidding process and have had an offer accepted by the sellers why would they do a extra work for what 1% of 10k? Now if the buyer is fecking them around that's where the "if you call them on a weekly basis about that property" you would certainly be in their mind if they feel the current buyers who are sale agreed are messing around.

Donald Trump

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I see what you mean, lots of AEs have my details by now, none of them has come back to me with other opportunities

It also gives them an idea of how many people out there are actively looking to buy

Mic 1972

I inquired these properties in April and again in July, both times i was told they are gone.
They have been on MyHome for way longer than they should. I rang the agent personally, second time i called he sounded almost annoyed that people were still asking about them.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/apt-144-parkgate-place-parkgate-street-islandbridge-dublin-8/4316021
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/82-parkgate-place-islandbridge-dublin-8/4269552

cnocbui

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That wasn't my point. A previous poster said that AEs leave houses on MyHome long after they are gone because it attracts potential buyers.
I'm a potential buyer who have inquired a number of properties that were "already gone" and the EA didnt' call me back to propose other options.

So there seems to be no apparent reason why a property is left on the market after sales agreed

If you take a listing down and the sale falls through, wouldn't listing again incur a new and hefty fee?

cnocbui

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That wasn't the case for me tho. I was told it was too late for an offer.
I'm seeing properties on MyHome that have been there for ages, have inquired them already and was told they are gone.
They are still there now.

I was told that too, so I went to the council, got the planning details, which luckilly included the builders name, then rang the builder who contacted the vendor who rang me back quick smart.

Reins

cnocbui wrote: »

If you take a listing down and the sale falls through, wouldn't listing again incur a new and hefty fee?

Probably it would.
Why can't they mark it as sale agreed though?

I enquired about a property and was told it was sale agreed.
I asked why is it on Daft and your own website as " For Sale " He said that's a mistake and he'd correct it. 3 weeks later and it's still up for sale. Think it's just pure laziness on their end.

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Was there any decrease?
I haven't seen any price drop in 2020, as of now prices are slightly higher than beginning of the year

Yes, latest CSO report showed a minor price decrease.
"Residential property prices decreased by 0.6% nationally in the year to August. This compares to a decrease of 0.6% in the year to July"

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2020/

Donald Trump

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, latest CSO report showed a minor price decrease.
"Residential property prices decreased by 0.6% nationally in the year to August. This compares to a decrease of 0.6% in the year to July"

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2020/

There will always be a bias in such figures as most buyers and sellers are not investors in either the sense of their reasons for buying/selling nor are they "professional".

There is always the view "well it was worth 400k last year I'm not going to sell it for 380k now because it will just go back up to 400k". So transactions are probably not being closed unless they are at, or close to, what people perceive to be a high watermark. In some ways that sets the market price of course, but it *could* also be delaying an inevitable fall.

I don't have the figures to hand. I'm just speaking hypothetically. You'd need to be looking at the completed sales figures in conjunction with what I said above. If the numbers of actually sold is more or less the same as previous years then it is not the case. If the numbers sold are much less than normal then it could be the case.

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

There will always be a bias in such figures as most buyers and sellers are not investors in either the sense of their reasons for buying/selling nor are they "professional".

There is always the view "well it was worth 400k last year I'm not going to sell it for 380k now because it will just go back up to 400k". So transactions are probably not being closed unless they are at, or close to, what people perceive to be a high watermark. In some ways that sets the market price of course, but it *could* also be delaying an inevitable fall.

I don't have the figures to hand. I'm just speaking hypothetically. You'd need to be looking at the completed sales figures in conjunction with what I said above. If the numbers of actually sold is more or less the same as previous years then it is not the case. If the numbers sold are much less than normal then it could be the case.

I think if there was going to be a large drop it would of happened. We have had corona for 10 months and had Brexit hanging over us all year. From Jan of next year Brexit will be done there will be some fallout and its looking most likely we will have a solution to corona. You only have to look at the markets for the uplift when pfizer announced their trial results

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

I think if there was going to be a large drop it would of happened. We have had corona for 10 months and had Brexit hanging over us all year. From Jan of next year Brexit will be done there will be some fallout and its looking most likely we will have a solution to corona. You only have to look at the markets for the uplift when pfizer announced their trial results

Volume of transactions in August 2020 down over 40% compared to August 2019 https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2020/additionalindicators/

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

Volume of transactions in August 2020 down over 40% compared to August 2019 https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2020/additionalindicators/

the number of sales have been increasing month on month do and the volume is down is down mainly because of Covid

PommieBast

Mic 1972 wrote: »

That wasn't my point. A previous poster said that AEs leave houses on MyHome long after they are gone because it attracts potential buyers.
I'm a potential buyer who have inquired a number of properties that were "already gone" and the EA didnt' call me back to propose other options.

So there seems to be no apparent reason why a property is left on the market after sales agreed

In my case the EA only removed the ad from Daft the day after I withdrew from the sale. Crazy..

Reversal

Marius34 wrote: »

Early Prediction: CSO Property Price Index to turn positive for 2020 Q4.
Due to new data and this week’s news, I start to think that I was at some extend wrong with my prediction on crisis impact on Residential Property price, but to other direction, than most have thought.
My prediction was 3-5% decrease, but I start to think that there may not be further decrease.

It might be to early to tell, but looking at the PPR data I see first signs that CSO Property price Index may turn positive for 2020 Q4.
In a week or two, it will be clearer, when there will be more data, thus less chance with errors/anomalies.
Here is from my report on PPR data (Its mostly Median price with some adjustment calculation).

Dublin:



Ireland(ex-Dublin):

So how many weeks PPR data is available at this moment for Q4? About 3 weeks? And partial at that...

So off raw median price data (that was proven to have major flaws here recently) representing about 20 percent of the total sample you declare a whole quarter to be on the up. The margin of error is going to be so large with such partial data, your conclusions can only be totally useless and unreliable. But I guess you know that...

Lets see what the CSO say in January.

Idbatterim

Cyrus wrote: »

yes i think people are increasingly wary of the costs of renovations and will pay a premium to avoid them, so walk in is best, expansion potential is next and no potential is a much harder sell!

they should be wary! the situation is incredible, easily the most frustrating bit of renovations, is the insane cost, if you can even get people. I am at my wits end trying to get people for one or two jobs, in the end did as much as I could myself, just one job I am going to have to land out. IF you can even get them to give you a quote. Mates are looking to get jobs done "see you Thursday at 1pm" LOL! you cant get them to give you a quote, never mind get them to do the job! Its been a tale of insane frustration and cost with my mates who have bought dublin do-er uppers. I would be very careful about getting involved in one, even if you are handy enough yourself!

Marius34

Reversal wrote: »

So how many weeks PPR data is available at this moment for Q4? About 3 weeks? And partial at that...

So off raw median price data (that was proven to have major flaws here recently) representing about 20 percent of the total sample you declare a whole quarter to be on the up. The margin of error is going to be so large with such partial data, your conclusions can only be totally useless and unreliable. But I guess you know that...

Lets see what the CSO say in January.

It's six weeks of partial data. So It's around 30% of total data, what's expected for 2020 Q4 total transactions. I'll update in couple of weeks time when there are more data.
I always stated raw median data, is not a good indicator, especially for Monthly reports.
So my findings/forecasts are useless, which with a time goes quite close to actual facts. But yours forecast, shared information isn't? which doesn't go well at all.

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

I think if there was going to be a large drop it would of happened. We have had corona for 10 months and had Brexit hanging over us all year. From Jan of next year Brexit will be done there will be some fallout and its looking most likely we will have a solution to corona. You only have to look at the markets for the uplift when pfizer announced their trial results

Brexit won't be done in January next year. Brexit will be done when the impact of Brexit on Ireland washes through and we recover from whatever the effects might be.

Corona is the same. The effects of Corona on the world economy won't be removed just because Corona is. That would be like saying your fixing a broken slate on your roof eradicates the effect of the slate on your roof being broken.

A market lifting says that folk think a bad bet has turned into a better bet. That people will start to go on holidays again (market gets back into airlines) doesn't mean there won't be lots of unemployment or busted business. You think retail isn't going to suffer due to the shift to online sales? Closing high street means jobs gone. And those jobs will be here - not in China which makes all the stuff we buy online.

Me? I find it hard to suppose a calamity the size of Corona won't have a very negative effect on the world economy. Too big a hit in too many areas..

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

Brexit won't be done in January next year. Brexit will be done when the impact of Brexit on Ireland washes through and we recover from whatever the effects might be.

Corona is the same. The effects of Corona on the world economy won't be removed just because Corona is. That would be like saying your fixing a broken slate on your roof eradicates the effect of the slate on your roof being broken.

A market lifting says that folk think a bad bet has turned into a better bet. That people will start to go on holidays again (market gets back into airlines) doesn't mean there won't be lots of unemployment or busted business. You think retail isn't going to suffer due to the shift to online sales? Closing high street means jobs gone. And those jobs will be here - not in China which makes all the stuff we buy online.

Me? I find it hard to suppose a calamity the size of Corona won't have a very negative effect on the world economy. Too big a hit in too many areas..

and yet 10 months in we still have seen no drops?

Balluba

Valentin_N wrote: »

The reason the median price is going up is because the number of transactions for lower value properties has gone down significantly. With the volume of transactions for more expensive properties mostly unaffected, the median goes up.

PommieBast wrote: »

In my case the EA only removed the ad from Daft the day after I withdrew from the sale. Crazy..

In my experience the ad on Daft was moved from the For Sale section to the Sale Agreed section only after a booking deposit was paid to the vendor’s solicitor

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

and yet 10 months in we still have seen no drops?

Possibly. People can guess and project. Some will be right and some will be wrong and some will be accidentally correct (they guess a direction but not for the logic they use).

Some effects will be masked/paused by covid muddying the waters.

If you look at the historical prices, we have steep increases up until late 2007. Then things just levelled off. The cliff didn't come til about a year later

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/housing-index

That is not to say I expect a similar crash. But I would not be surprised with a decline in prices.

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

Possibly. People can guess and project. Some will be right and some will be wrong and some will be accidentally correct (they guess a direction but not for the logic they use).

Some effects will be masked/paused by covid muddying the waters.

If you look at the historical prices, we have steep increases up until late 2007. Then things just levelled off. The cliff didn't come til about a year later

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/housing-index

That is not to say I expect a similar crash. But I would not be surprised with a decline in prices.

Anyone trying to compare today to the crash of 08 is nonsense the same dynamics are not in play.

We have a temporary situation brought by a virus that has brought some things to a standstill not the same as 08 .

In this time saving ratios have gone right up meaning those still working are saving due to not being able to spend on much compared to 08 we have more savings and less personal debt.

Those who where paying taxes as in those on the upper to middle incomes don't seem to be effected at all judging by the income tax figures to date. In 08 we had tsunami of private sector comapanies hitting the wall and public sector pay got cut. this year during the pandemic ps got a pay rise.

Banks have been prudently lending over the last decade with the ratio systems brought in has meant reckless borrowing is a thing of the past. In 08 they were throwing money around like confetti anyone remember the 110% mortgages.

We have a drought not a shortage a feckin drought of good properties in desirable places to live. So compared to 08 where we had ghost estates and a large selection of property to choose from.

comparing to 08 is not an apt comparison

lalababa

My home price changes are in the vast majority falling. That is asking prices for particular properties are falling. I would hazzard a guess that they are mainly in the countryside and older properties. But as the bull follows the cow.....

Carter D

Hi quick question how far back can the bank ask for when applying for a mortgage is it just 6 months or can they ask for 3 or 4 years ?

fliball123

lalababa wrote: »

My home price changes are in the vast majority falling. That is asking prices for particular properties are falling. I would hazzard a guess that they are mainly in the countryside and older properties. But as the bull follows the cow.....

This has been said over and over again in this thread. The majority of prices are not changing at all and there are also price increases going on. It has also been mentioned that the PPR and CSO data of actual selling prices do not match asking and prices have been on the up for the last few months.