Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

Anyone trying to compare today to the crash of 08 is nonsense the same dynamics are not in play.

We have a temporary situation brought by a virus that has brought some things to a standstill not the same as 08 .

Businesses closing isn't necessarily temporary. The idea that you can hibernate a world economy for a year then simply hit the play button again hasn't much going for it. Who is going to pay for it if not the punter? And if the punter, won't that tend to suppress spend activity. And doesn't that mean recession. And doesn't recession mean more job losses


The dynamics don't have to be 2008 dynamics to have 2008 like effects.

We have a drought not a shortage a feckin drought of good properties in desirable places to live. So compared to 08 where we had ghost estates and a large selection of property to choose from.

comparing to 08 is not an apt comparison

We didn't have a glut of good properties in desirable places to live in 2008 - which is why people were paying through the nose for shoeboxes in Dublin. Which is why estates were built in the middle of nowhere. Dubliners commuting (and still commuting) from Wexford .. remember?

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

This has been said over and over again in this thread. The majority of prices are not changing at all and there are also price increases going on. It has also been mentioned that the PPR and CSO data of actual selling prices do not match asking and prices have been on the up for the last few months.

Having watched the 2008 crash work out I wouldn't expect house prices to fall. Until they had to. The Crash was characterized by people chasing the market down, down, down to the tune of 100's of 000's. People won't drop prices in advance of being forced to. They'll hope they can get what they reckon their house is worth, which isn't necessarily what the market says its worth.

I sold recently and the fear of their mortgage approval elasping and being unable to get a loan for years was a bigger fear for the buyer than the hoise dropping in price. Something they factored in.

Folk know what happened the last time: house price drops but locked out of being able to borrow for years.

I wouldn't take current selling prices and transaction levels (whatever they.might be) at face value.

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

Businesses closing isn't necessarily temporary. The idea that you can hibernate a world economy for a year then simply hit the play button again hasn't much going for it. Who is going to pay for it if not the punter? And if the punter, won't that tend to suppress spend activity. And doesn't that mean recession. And doesn't recession mean more job losses


The dynamics don't have to be 2008 dynamics to have 2008 like effects.







We didn't have a glut of good properties in desirable places to live in 2008 - which is why people were paying through the nose for shoeboxes in Dublin. Which is why estates were built in the middle of nowhere. Dubliners commuting (and still commuting) from Wexford .. remember?

Hit the play button the world is currently frothing at the bit to get back to normal, to get back out to eat drink and be merry, to go on holidays to think that people will just slowly come back out is ludicrous sure they cant keep everyone in and behaving while lockdowns are on let alone when things are completely lifted. When everything is lifted there will be an out pour of meeting up, parties, holidays therefore spending. You bring me to another point 08 crash cost a lot more than the 30billion projected for corona fallout for this year and next.


We have less housing available today than we did in 08 and we have more people to house today than we did in 08.

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

Having watched the 2008 crash work out I wouldn't expect house prices to fall. Until they had to. The Crash was characterized by people chasing the market down, down, down to the tune of 100's of 000's. People won't drop prices in advance of being forced to. They'll hope they can get what they reckon their house is worth, which isn't necessarily what the market says its worth.

I sold recently and the fear of their mortgage approval elasping and being unable to get a loan for years was a bigger fear for the buyer than the hoise dropping in price. Something they factored in.

Folk know what happened the last time: house price drops but locked out of being able to borrow for years.

I wouldn't take current selling prices and transaction levels (whatever they.might be) at face value.

The current selling price is the price. I see demand on the up and supply on the drop if both keep on their current trajectory prices are not going to go down,.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

Hit the play button the world is currently frothing at the bit to get back to normal, to get back out to eat drink and be merry, to go on holidays to think that people will just slowly come back out is ludicrous sure they cant keep everyone in and behaving while lockdowns are on let alone when things are completely lifted. When everything is lifted there will be an out pour of meeting up, parties, holidays therefore spending. You bring me to another point 08 crash cost a lot more than the 30billion projected for corona fallout for this year and next.


We have less housing available today than we did in 08 and we have more people to house today than we did in 08.

To add to this, Private sector deposits increased by 22 Billions already: from 221B to 243B, since February this year. (Households+Non-Financial Corps + Insurance&Pensions funds)

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

The current selling price is the price. I see demand on the up and supply on the drop if both keep on their current trajectory prices are not going to go down,.

If. If folk are and have been buying for fear of their mortgage approvals elapsing and not being renewed (or renewed against more stringent metrics), then there is no reason for prices to drop.

You can be at the fag end of a market, just like folk continued to pay more and more even though we were already over the side of a cliff in 2007.

Your position seems to rest on a snapshot of now, without taking into account what might lie beneath.

I mean, in 2007 you could have said the exact same thing you're saying now.

Your 'if' would have been dead wrong then. And your position now rests on you 'if ' being right. In the face of a never before seen phenomenon: the stillstanding of the entire world economy

I've no crystal ball. But find it difficult to take economic stillstand with a pinch of salt.

combat14

this economic wobble will last a while longer with stock market optimism rightly fading again today

sounds like 2 shots of the new magic vaccine are required but even that is not going to be enough ..with the additional need for booster shots every few months .. sounds absolutely crazy - alot of people wont take the vaccine (if it is fully approved) let alone turn up for booster shots (if our system is even able to handle this additional work load)

unfortunately the vaccine could be worse than useless if not managed/ administered properly .. think our economic woes and massive increased state borrowing will continue for forseeable future

too soon to call it for house prices till things become a lot clearer...

TheSheriff

antiskeptic wrote: »

If. If folk are and have been buying for fear of their mortgage approvals elapsing and not being renewed (or renewed against more stringent metrics), then there is no reason for prices to drop.

You can be at the fag end of a market, just like folk continued to pay more and more even though we were already over the side of a cliff in 2007.

Your position seems to rest on a snapshot of now, without taking into account what might lie beneath.

I mean, in 2007 you could have said the exact same thing you're saying now.

Your 'if' would have been dead wrong then. And your position now rests on you 'if ' being right. In the face of a never before seen phenomenon: the stillstanding of the entire world economy

I've no crystal ball. But find it difficult to take economic stillstand with a pinch of salt.

Are we at economic standstill tough ?

In terms of hospitality, yes. But for other industries I wouldn't have thought so.

Business is certainly booming from my work perspective (pharma), moreso than anytime I've previously seen in my career.

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

Hit the play button the world is currently frothing at the bit to get back to normal, to get back out to eat drink and be merry, to go on holidays to think that people will just slowly come back out is ludicrous sure they cant keep everyone in and behaving while lockdowns are on let alone when things are completely lifted. When everything is lifted there will be an out pour of meeting up, parties, holidays therefore spending. You bring me to another point 08 crash cost a lot more than the 30billion projected for corona fallout for this year and next.


We have less housing available today than we did in 08 and we have more people to house today than we did in 08.

Going out for a beer is one thing. Deciding to buy a new car is another.


Watch new car sales in January. That will tell you how keen people are to party on. Not long to wait now..


-

When folk emigrate for jobs (a not unheard of phenomenon here) you can watch your dearth of housing flip on its back. You won't be able to give them away.

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

If. If folk are and have been buying for fear of their mortgage approvals elapsing and not being renewed (or renewed against more stringent metrics), then there is no reason for prices to drop.

You can be at the fag end of a market, just like folk continued to pay more and more even though we were already over the side of a cliff in 2007.

Your position seems to rest on a snapshot of now, without taking into account what might lie beneath.

I mean, in 2007 you could have said the exact same thing you're saying now.

Your 'if' would have been dead wrong then. And your position now rests on you 'if ' being right. In the face of a never before seen phenomenon: the stillstanding of the entire world economy

I've no crystal ball. But find it difficult to take economic stillstand with a pinch of salt.

So the snapshot I am taken is after 10/11 months of a global pandemic and if reports are to believed quite possibly the worst of the pandemic (if pfizer or the other vaccine out of Russia are hitting the 90% and 92% efficacy rates are to be believed) is over. So in the future or what lies beneath is the likelyhood of a "hitting of the play button" (as you put it) there will be spending once the virus is gone and saving rates show people have money in their accounts ready to spend if they want.

As I say comparing the crash to 08 is like comparing apples and a monkeys.

I agree with the other poster about Jan car sales. next year the first quarter will probably be the best indicator as to where we are within the economy as a whole

Cyrus

antiskeptic wrote: »

Going out for a beer is one thing. Deciding to buy a new car is another.


Watch new car sales in January. That will tell you how keen people are to party on. Not long to wait now..


-

When folk emigrate for jobs (a not unheard of phenomenon here) you can watch your dearth of housing flip on its back. You won't be able to give them away.

motor industry is actually doing a lot better than anticipated believe it or not.

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

So the snapshot I am taken is after 10/11 months of a global pandemic and iif reports are to believed quite possibly the worst of the pandemic (if pfizer or the other vaccine out of Russia are hitting the 90% and 92% efficacy rates are to be believed) is over. So in the future or what lies beneath is the likelyhood of a "hitting of the play button" (as you put it) there will be spending once the virus is gone and saving rates show people have money in their accounts ready to spend if they want.

As I say comparing the crash to 08 is like comparing apples and a monkeys.

And my point on why people are buying? A propped up market driven by fear of not being able to borrow is not a healthy market.

antiskeptic

Cyrus wrote: »

motor industry is actually doing a lot better than anticipated believe it or not.

Go on.. down on what it would have been expected to be presumably? Better than feared?

(Hi, btw)

Balluba

I see Hampton Gardens multi units 2/3/4 beds in Balbriggan (with some sitting tenants) was refreshed again on Daft today. On the market for months now but no takers. Asking price €10.5 mill

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Anyone trying to compare today to the crash of 08 is nonsense the same dynamics are not in play.

We have a temporary situation brought by a virus that has brought some things to a standstill not the same as 08 .

In this time saving ratios have gone right up meaning those still working are saving due to not being able to spend on much compared to 08 we have more savings and less personal debt.

Those who where paying taxes as in those on the upper to middle incomes don't seem to be effected at all judging by the income tax figures to date. In 08 we had tsunami of private sector comapanies hitting the wall and public sector pay got cut. this year during the pandemic ps got a pay rise.

Banks have been prudently lending over the last decade with the ratio systems brought in has meant reckless borrowing is a thing of the past. In 08 they were throwing money around like confetti anyone remember the 110% mortgages.

We have a drought not a shortage a feckin drought of good properties in desirable places to live. So compared to 08 where we had ghost estates and a large selection of property to choose from.

comparing to 08 is not an apt comparison

I don't think it's a 'temporary situation'. According to Foreign Policy magazine:

"Almost 20 percent of U.S. corporations have become zombie companies that are unable to generate enough cash flow to service even the interest on their debt, and only survive thanks to continued loans and bailouts."

I would imagine the situation in the EU is much worse. And, most of these companies were in a near similar position pre-covid.

Link to article here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/20/election-2020-global-debt-crisis/

In relation to the 'savings ratio', I would believe that would be pretty much meaningless as in the year before the last bust in Ireland, 1.1 million SSIA savers shared a total payout of c. €15 billion and the biggest housing bust in Irish history still went ahead shortly after.

There also can't be a drought of properties as we're still building c. 20,000 residential units this year which is similar to last years figure. Whatever the reason for the reduction in number of properties advertised for sale, it's definitely not down to a lack of available supply issue or this would have been well flagged back in January pre-covid.

All above are IMO of course

Balluba

I also see that the Central Bank is selling it’s Spencer Dock building that it bought in 2015

TheSheriff

Balluba wrote: »

I also see that the Central Bank is selling it’s Spencer Dock building that it bought in 2015

You forgot to give the whole story...'and expanding in their current other building'

PropQueries

Balluba wrote: »

I see Hampton Gardens multi units 2/3/4 beds in Balbriggan (with some sitting tenants) was refreshed again on Daft today. On the market for months now but no takers. Asking price €10.5 mill

Would be interesting to know whose selling it.

brisan

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I made a few calls this week to agencies, the properties i inquired were all already sales agreed. I'm not even sure why they leave them on MyHome if they are no longer available.

Until the contracts are signed they are all subject to finance and can fall through
There are quite a few posts on another thread about an EA refusing to mark a property sale agreed even though a bid has been accepted

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

Going out for a beer is one thing. Deciding to buy a new car is another.


Watch new car sales in January. That will tell you how keen people are to party on. Not long to wait now..


-

When folk emigrate for jobs (a not unheard of phenomenon here) you can watch your dearth of housing flip on its back. You won't be able to give them away.

Just to let you know we have a plus figure with regard to immigration vs emigration in 2018 and 2019 alone we are up about 66k and with natural increase we are up to about 129k more people we have in the country in 2019 as apposed to 2017. So as you say to emigrate for jobs is not unheard of which is why we will be getting more coming in due to our multinationals and the fact that we will be the only English speaking country in the EU. So I will watch for your dearth of housing flip with intrigue but I doubt it will flip if the population figures continue after lockdown after all people have to live somewhere.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

lalababa

fliball123 wrote: »

This has been said over and over again in this thread. The majority of prices are not changing at all and there are also price increases going on. It has also been mentioned that the PPR and CSO data of actual selling prices do not match asking and prices have been on the up for the last few months.

I'll state again 'The majority of price changes on myhome are falls'
And in County Kerry the difference between the asking price and PPR for the first 5 properties that I could get figures for were all falls between 5 & 20%.
So one can take the CSO data and whistle dixie.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think it's a 'temporary situation'. According to Foreign Policy magazine:

"Almost 20 percent of U.S. corporations have become zombie companies that are unable to generate enough cash flow to service even the interest on their debt, and only survive thanks to continued loans and bailouts."

I would imagine the situation in the EU is much worse. And, most of these companies were in a near similar position pre-covid.

Link to article here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/20/election-2020-global-debt-crisis/

In relation to the 'savings ratio', I would believe that would be pretty much meaningless as in the year before the last bust in Ireland, 1.1 million SSIA savers shared a total payout of c. €15 billion and the biggest housing bust in Irish history still went ahead shortly after.

There also can't be a drought of properties as we're still building c. 20,000 residential units this year which is similar to last years figure. Whatever the reason for the reduction in number of properties advertised for sale, it's definitely not down to a lack of available supply issue or this would have been well flagged back in January pre-covid.

All above are IMO of course

And as you have proven your opinion is absolute crap, you lie and when proven wrong you try a different point to suit your agenda. Nothing you say can be taken as truth

Balluba

TheSheriff wrote: »

You forgot to give the whole story...'and expanding in their current other building'

I see nothing about ‘expanding’ in today’s Independent article. It states that the current staff of the Central Bank will move to its other two buildings in North Wall Quay and Mayor Street on a phased basis.
Is the Central Bank expanding?

fliball123

lalababa wrote: »

I'll state again 'The majority of price changes on myhome are falls'
And in County Kerry the difference between the asking price and PPR for the first 5 properties that I could get figures for were all falls between 5 & 20%.
So one can take the CSO data and whistle dixie.

So you took 5 properties where as CSO and PPR take all properties into account..emmmm sorry but your talking sh1t I think I will believe the CSO and PPR thanks both say actual selling prices are on the rise.. The % of price changes on myhome with respect to the amount of properties up for sale is minuscule as in if you think that there is 10% drops when you bring all the properties in that goes well below 1%

Cyrus

antiskeptic wrote: »

Go on.. down on what it would have been expected to be presumably? Better than feared?

(Hi, btw)

im only taking the word of a friend who is the head of a department in the one of the luxury marques,

definitely better than feared, there appears to be plenty of demand for new premium cars at the moment as people dont have much else to spend on.

brisan

Idbatterim wrote: »

i brought this up before and I will raise the issue again, say average one bed apartment size is 50 sq m. Why not be able to double the bed capacity, for the sake of say 2.5 x 3.5m = 8.75 sq m (that would be an acceptable size) used as an extra guest room, office, full time bedroom or even second little living room, to give people space. It would give so much more flexibility. Its the cost of bathroom and kitchen in particular that are very expensive.

I really think they could do 30-35sq m one bed apartments, single aspect, that might be a balance between insane prices and actually liveable in...

come in and layout like hotel rooms, bathroom , bedroom, kitchen / living area. except instead of bath, bed area, you would have bath > bedroom > kitchen / living area...

This design is used a lot in the uk...

There are regulations on the size of 1 bed and 2 bed apts
Even if the 2 bed has 1 single and 1 double bed it has to have a minimum living space and a minimum outside space
There are a lot of older complexes without balconies and small 2 bed apts that would not be allowed to be built now
I have seen the planning permission granted for new houses (Brookwood court D5 ) where the permission specifically stated the the attics could not be converted because the private outside space was the minimum required for a 5 person (2 double 1 single bed ) household ,
The private outside space was actually smaller in the original planning that was submitted
A 55 sq mt 2 bed apt is too small for 4 people

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

And as you have proven you IMO is absolute crap, you lie and when proven wrong try a different point to suit your agenda. Nothing you say can be taken as truth

Every single fact I gave is backed 100% by actual real data

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Every single fact I gave is backed 100% by actual real data

news paper articles are real data :pac::D

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

And my point on why people are buying? A propped up market driven by fear of not being able to borrow is not a healthy market.

Hang on when is the last time the market was left to its own devices. Its always been driven by something, by Landlords, by the poor, by government (policies), by builders and by other self interested parties. Yet people have gone about buying without factoring this in over the last 20/40 years why would it change now or in the future?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

news paper articles are real data :pac::D

My mistake. I didn't realise the Foreign Policy magazine was a tabloid. Apologies