Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Every single fact I gave is backed 100% by actual real data

hahahaha you do make me laugh your data is usually out of date and picked to perfection to prove a point its like you look at a data point that makes your point and forget all the rest of the data and then you are always proven wrong. Go on get the age figures for the country back up there from 2016 that you thought proved there were very few people at an age where they would be buying..Comedy Gold Props comedy gold. I was beginning to miss you

brisan

lalababa wrote: »

My home price changes are in the vast majority falling. That is asking prices for particular properties are falling. I would hazzard a guess that they are mainly in the countryside and older properties. But as the bull follows the cow.....

Every area in Dublin is showing a lot more decreases than increases and all showing a percentage decrease

q85dw7osi4lebg

brisan wrote: »

Every area in Dublin is showing a lot more decreases than increases and all showing a percentage decrease

As has always been the case, prices are rarely increased.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

hahahaha you do make me laugh your data is usually out of date and picked to perfection to prove a point its like you look at a data point that makes your point and forget all the rest of the data and then you are always proven wrong. Go on get the age figures for the country back up there from 2016 that you thought proved there were very few people at an age where they would be buying..Comedy Gold Props comedy gold. I was beginning to miss you

Well I believe the level of sales transactions this year wouldn't have been much higher covid or no covid...

brisan

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are we at economic standstill tough ?

In terms of hospitality, yes. But for other industries I wouldn't have thought so.

Business is certainly booming from my work perspective (pharma), moreso than anytime I've previously seen in my career.

Hospitality ,aviation ,tourism .retail /(except food ),all struggling

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are we at economic standstill tough ?

In terms of hospitality, yes. But for other industries I wouldn't have thought so.

Business is certainly booming from my work perspective (pharma), moreso than anytime I've previously seen in my career.

Genuine question. Why is pharma booming? Covid aside of course.

brisan

Yara Rich Camouflage wrote: »

they'll be telling you people in these industries don't have an impact on this housing market in 3.2.1....

Well some posters have said that people in low wage jobs don't affect the property market as they do not buy houses
The idea that someone on 20k a year would ever marry someone on 80k a year never occurred to them
Even losing a 20k a year job knocks 75k off a potential mortgage
You would think people who work in Arnotts, BT and the like never buy a house or apt

TheSheriff

Balluba wrote: »

I see nothing about ‘expanding’ in today’s Independent article. It states that the current staff of the Central Bank will move to its other two buildings in North Wall Quay and Mayor Street on a phased basis.
Is the Central Bank expanding?

It was on the news yesterday, they bought the two adjacent buildings to current HQ last year (or year before) , so they expanded their HQ with the aim of consolidating staff at that location.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well I believe the level of sales transactions this year wouldn't have been much higher covid or no covid...

hahahahahaha your amazing , what are the lotto numbers for this weeks euro millions please

lalababa

fliball123 wrote: »

So you took 5 properties where as CSO and PPR take all properties into account..emmmm sorry but your talking sh1t I think I will believe the CSO and PPR thanks both say actual selling prices are on the rise.. The % of price changes on myhome with respect to the amount of properties up for sale is minuscule as in if you think that there is 10% drops when you bring all the properties in that goes well below 1%

Now , now it's just an opinion.

fliball123

lalababa wrote: »

Now , now it's just an opinion.

But its not right the data set is there in front of you so you cant just pick and choose and say I think because of these 5 properties have dropped by x amount then the market has dropped by x amount. The figures are there a full data set of all properties sold and its pointing to prices going up and that is not an opinion that is fact backed up by figures. I could go on to myhome now and pick 5 properties that have increases and say asking prices are on the up , but that would be just as wrong and misleading.

Cyrus

Yara Rich Camouflage wrote: »

they'll be telling you people in these industries don't have an impact on this housing market in 3.2.1....

the actual information on achieved house prices is there for anyone to see, you know better?

antiskeptic

Cyrus wrote: »

im only taking the word of a friend who is the head of a department in the one of the luxury marques,

definitely better than feared, there appears to be plenty of demand for new premium cars at the moment as people dont have much else to spend on.

Hmm. A special case? VW need people buying Golfs and Passats by the shed load to fly.

I just wonder whether a world economy can simply hibernated. It strikes me that its too complex and sensitive to sentiment for that.

Not that I want a crash (even though I'm in a pretty failsafe industry). I might make money out of buying property low but wouldn't be so greedy as to wish the world go down the pan so as I can make a few bob 🀪

antiskeptic

PropQueries wrote: »

Genuine question. Why is pharma booming? Covid aside of course.

Anti depressant, anxiety, blood pressure medication?

One mans famine is anothers feast.

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

Anyone trying to compare today to the crash of 08 is nonsense the same dynamics are not in play.

We have a temporary situation brought by a virus that has brought some things to a standstill not the same as 08 .

In this time saving ratios have gone right up meaning those still working are saving due to not being able to spend on much compared to 08 we have more savings and less personal debt.

Those who where paying taxes as in those on the upper to middle incomes don't seem to be effected at all judging by the income tax figures to date. In 08 we had tsunami of private sector comapanies hitting the wall and public sector pay got cut. this year during the pandemic ps got a pay rise.

Banks have been prudently lending over the last decade with the ratio systems brought in has meant reckless borrowing is a thing of the past. In 08 they were throwing money around like confetti anyone remember the 110% mortgages.

We have a drought not a shortage a feckin drought of good properties in desirable places to live. So compared to 08 where we had ghost estates and a large selection of property to choose from.

comparing to 08 is not an apt comparison

In late 2007-2008 there was a lull, during which time lots of people held on until the market went back to its trajectory of shooting upwards. They held on because it was only temporary. Or at least that is what some "experts" were assuring them.
Things were booming, then suddenly things slowed down and then they stopped. It was not reflected in the market prices until people accepted that reality had changed and they would need to accept lower prices.

In 2007 the then Taoiseach asked why people, who had a negative outlook on prospects for the economy, didn't just commit suicide. The only way was up!

I can't tell you that things will go down. I can't tell you that they will go up. But you also can't tell me for definite that they will go up because you can't foresee everything that will happen. There are two many unknowns currently. You might have a guess and you might be correct in the end up but there will be luck involved.

PropQueries

brisan wrote: »

Well some posters have said that people in low wage jobs don't affect the property market as they do not buy houses
The idea that someone on 20k a year would ever marry someone on 80k a year never occurred to them
Even losing a 20k a year job knocks 75k off a potential mortgage
You would think people who work in Arnotts, BT and the like never buy a house or apt

I think people are over-estimating the demand from people working in the multinational sector. There's less than 250,000 of them and many have been working in the sector since the 1980's and would already be homeowners from the 1990's and 2000's or would have purchased one of the c. 100,000 new homes that have been built over the past 10 years.

If people are relying on people working in multinationals to buy or rent even 50% of the c. 60,000 new homes that will be built between 2019, 2020 and 2021 (enough new homes to house 180,000 persons based on an average of one couple and one child living in each unit), I believe they will be seriously disappointed.

brisan

antiskeptic wrote: »

Hmm. A special case? VW need people buying Golfs and Passats by the shed load to fly.

I just wonder whether a world economy can simply hibernated. It strikes me that its too complex and sensitive to sentiment for that.

Not that I want a crash (even though I'm in a pretty failsafe industry). I might make money out of buying property low but wouldn't be so greedy as to wish the world go down the pan so as I can make a few bob ��

https://www.industryweek.com/talent/article/22027638/automakers-job-cuts-are-at-38000-and-counting

https://www.autonews.com/topic/layoffs-and-downsizing

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32083482/automakers-layoffs-coronavirus/

https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/covid-19-jobs-of-over-1.1-million-eu-automobile-workers-affected-so-far-dat

People might be buying more cars but manufacturers are making less

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

Hang on when is the last time the market was left to its own devices. Its always been driven by something, by Landlords, by the poor, by government (policies), by builders and by other self interested parties. Yet people have gone about buying without factoring this in over the last 20/40 years why would it change now or in the future?

Yes. And if the current market happens to be driven by folk flocking to get on board before the loan ship goes down then you have a temporary/finite situation.

Whereas you seem to be reckoning that because it is x now it will continue to be x.

We are crystal balling both. I'm just not relying on the current x situation amd supposing that will continue.

Perhaps you think Covid is near gone and that the world will pick up where it left off. That an economy can take a never before experienced hit and be unaffected.

At the very least, agnosticism would be the safest bet.

antiskeptic

brisan wrote: »

https://www.industryweek.com/talent/article/22027638/automakers-job-cuts-are-at-38000-and-counting

https://www.autonews.com/topic/layoffs-and-downsizing

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32083482/automakers-layoffs-coronavirus/

https://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/covid-19-jobs-of-over-1.1-million-eu-automobile-workers-affected-so-far-dat

People might be buying more cars but manufacturers are making less

I wonder are all those laid off car workers buying cars. Or houses.

antiskeptic

Donald Trump wrote: »

In late 2007-2008 there was a lull, during which time lots of people held on until the market went back to its trajectory of shooting upwards. They held on because it was only temporary. Or at least that is what some "experts" were assuring them.
Things were booming, then suddenly things slowed down and then they stopped. It was not reflected in the market prices until people accepted that reality had changed and they would need to accept lower prices.

In 2007 the then Taoiseach asked why people, who had a negative outlook on prospects for the economy, didn't just commit suicide. The only way was up!

I can't tell you that things will go down. I can't tell you that they will go up. But you also can't tell me for definite that they will go up because you can't foresee everything that will happen. There are two many unknowns currently. You might have a guess and you might be correct in the end up but there will be luck involved.

The 'gully' I think they called it in The Big Short. Just a gully.

If you were one of the gullyable.

Balluba

TheSheriff wrote: »

It was on the news yesterday, they bought the two adjacent buildings to current HQ last year (or year before) , so they expanded their HQ with the aim of consolidating staff at that location.

I watched all the National main news bulletins yesterday and I did not hear about Central bank expanding. I will certainly check this out thoroughly.

Cyrus

Balluba wrote: »

I watched all the National main news bulletins yesterday and I did not hear about Central bank expanding. I will certainly check this out thoroughly.

one only sees what one wants to see

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-office-sale-5263035-Nov2020/

Last year, the Central Bank further expanded its HQ by acquiring two adjacent buildings, being developed by Sean Mulryan’s Ballymore in partnership with listed Singapore-based property group Oxley.

Proceeds from the sale of Block R will be used to offset the €205 million expansion.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I think people are over-estimating the demand from people working in the multinational sector. There's less than 250,000 of them and many have been working in the sector since the 1980's and would already be homeowners from the 1990's and 2000's or would have purchased one of the c. 100,000 new homes that have been built over the past 10 years.

If people are relying on people working in multinationals to buy or rent even 50% of the c. 60,000 new homes that will be built between 2019, 2020 and 2021 (enough new homes to house 180,000 persons based on an average of one couple and one child living in each unit), I believe they will be seriously disappointed.

hahahaha more comedy gold form Props pulling figures from his sphincter again.

Just a quick nitpick when did google, facebook, twitter etc set up Ireland answers on the back of a post card it certainly wasnt in the feckin 80s haha

How many secondary companies have been created because of MNCS by the way?

As for houses built we cant trust projections as we are already behind on this years 20k

2019 was 21.5k
2020 Q1 4986
2020 Q2 3490
2020 Q3 5118

So we are still a long way off getting 20k for 2020. So up till the end of Q3 this year we had about 13.5k built so thats 35k new houses built from 2019 to end of Q3 2020..(just so your sure)

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/construction/newdwellingcompletions/

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/builders-completed-21-500-homes-in-state-during-2019-1.4145894

there you go now from April 2018 to April 2020 our population grew by 120k. They all need somewhere to live.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

So leaving 2021 building and immigration natural population increase aside as they are projections.

2019 + 2020 (to date) have seen 35k extra houses built so with 120k extra people to house, quick bit of division thats 120k / 3 (based on your own average of a couple and one kid) ans 40k so we are only 5k short as of the end of Q3.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq42019/

Now this does not take into account existing demand pre 2018

Also I showed you earlier in the thread that the mortgage approval rates from the start of the year to September was not being met by the projected builds now I have actual build data and it is even worse. I put the link up to prove you wrong But shhhhh we wont say anything about that.

Here is the link again just for you props you have the whole walter mitty/selective amnesia thing going on

https://www.bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-approvals-report/

PropQueries

Looks like all those people who were hoping Biden was a better option for Ireland in relation to jobs and demand for housing than Trump was may end up being disappointing. Apparently he's even more eager than Trump was to re-shore those jobs in Ireland back to the USA than Trump was.

And, given the small margin the Democrats won by, they may actually move faster than Trump on reshoring those jobs (next election is only 4 years away) and let's be honest, it's Ireland their looking at.

"Despite all of the nicey-nicey stuff about Biden’s roots in Co Mayo and Co Louth, the possible threats that his policy platform poses to foreign direct investment jobs here through reshoring jobs back home has already been flagged."

Link to Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/biden-is-keen-as-trump-to-take-jobs-back-to-us-39736324.html

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

Yes. And if the current market happens to be driven by folk flocking to get on board before the loan ship goes down then you have a temporary/finite situation.

Whereas you seem to be reckoning that because it is x now it will continue to be x.

We are crystal balling both. I'm just not relying on the current x situation and supposing that will continue.

Perhaps you think Covid is near gone and that the world will pick up where it left off. That an economy can take a never before experienced hit and be unaffected.

At the very least, agnosticism would be the safest bet.

I have never said prices will go up and down if you look back at my posts I have never told anyone to buy or sell. I have been dealing in the here and now and looking at data historically and I have been pointing out that actual prices have been on the rise much to the annoyance of some on here who want a crash (not looking at you props ) and much to the contrary of what I thought would happen when Covid appeared on the scene I thought we would have a drop of about 5% or so but it never happened and 11 months on prices are going up.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like all those people who were hoping Biden was a better option for Ireland in relation to jobs and demand for housing than Trump was may end up being disappointing. Apparently he's even more eager than Trump was to re-shore those jobs in Ireland back to the USA than Trump was.

And, given the small margin the Democrats won by, they may actually move faster than Trump on reshoring those jobs (next election is only 4 years away) and let's be honest, it's Ireland their looking at.

"Despite all of the nicey-nicey stuff about Biden’s roots in Co Mayo and Co Louth, the possible threats that his policy platform poses to foreign direct investment jobs here through reshoring jobs back home has already been flagged."

Link to Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/biden-is-keen-as-trump-to-take-jobs-back-to-us-39736324.html

We heard the same from the Don and from Barrack didnt happen lets move on

antiskeptic

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like all those people who were hoping Biden was a better option for Ireland in relation to jobs and demand for housing than Trump was may end up being disappointing. Apparently he's even more eager than Trump was to re-shore those jobs in Ireland back to the USA than Trump was.

And, given the small margin the Democrats won by, they may actually move faster than Trump on reshoring those jobs (next election is only 4 years away) and let's be honest, it's Ireland their looking at.

"Despite all of the nicey-nicey stuff about Biden’s roots in Co Mayo and Co Louth, the possible threats that his policy platform poses to foreign direct investment jobs here through reshoring jobs back home has already been flagged."

Link to Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/biden-is-keen-as-trump-to-take-jobs-back-to-us-39736324.html

The name of the game is perception of. Whether pharma produce a drug that is effective and safe matters not. What matters is the perception that a drug is effective and safe.

Irish smoked salmon vs smoked Irish salmon. All in the perception.

If its more cost effective to create the perception than create the actuality then that is what a pharma CEO will be bound to do. His shareholders will demand so. Else he's not going to be a CEO for long

Ditto Biden. He is a neo liberal and firmly on the side of big business. If its 'cheaper' for him to create the perception of jobs coming home than actually bringing the jobs home, then that is what he will do.

As they saying goes: they don't get to be big by being nice guys. And POTUS is about as big as they.come.

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

In late 2007-2008 there was a lull, during which time lots of people held on until the market went back to its trajectory of shooting upwards. They held on because it was only temporary. Or at least that is what some "experts" were assuring them.
Things were booming, then suddenly things slowed down and then they stopped. It was not reflected in the market prices until people accepted that reality had changed and they would need to accept lower prices.

In 2007 the then Taoiseach asked why people, who had a negative outlook on prospects for the economy, didn't just commit suicide. The only way was up!

I can't tell you that things will go down. I can't tell you that they will go up. But you also can't tell me for definite that they will go up because you can't foresee everything that will happen. There are two many unknowns currently. You might have a guess and you might be correct in the end up but there will be luck involved.

So let me get this straight a full on global pandemic that we are currently experiencing you think this is the lull in the property market ???? I dont see many experts (self interest excluded) out there telling anyone that property is going up a lot are saying to stay away as it will definitely be going down. Look I am baffled at how well property is currently holding up given the circumstances of covid but the fundamentals of supply and demand are still strong for a seller currently but this could change tomorrow and like you I dont know if they will go up and down I deal in the here and now.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

We heard the same from the Don and from Barrack didnt happen lets move on

Those OECD international tax reforms will probably be agreed next year. We got extremely lucky last time. Hopefully we will be as lucky in the next 6 months.

Mic 1972

The funny thing is that prices had started to decrease before Covid, they only started to increase again after Covid began