Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

So let me get this straight a full on global pandemic that we are currently experiencing you think this is the lull in the property market ???? I dont see many experts (self interest excluded) out there telling anyone that property is going up a lot are saying to stay away as it will definitely be going down. Look I am baffled at how well property is currently holding up given the circumstances of covid but the fundamentals of supply and demand are still strong for a sellerr currently this could change tomorrow and like you I dont know if they will go up and down I deal in the here and now.

Yes. But we're looking at why the here and now. With a view to that being a hollow situation (like worried folk clamouring to draw down mortgages)

There is no point talking about fundmentals when those can evaporate in a heartbeat. Other countries bear recessions better than we do and folk will simply ship out to where the work is if they need to.

antiskeptic

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The funny thing is that prices had started to decrease before Covid, they only started to increase again after Covid began

There was a big flat spot last quarter 2019. Brexit talk and worry was wall to wall on the TV. Pent up demand?

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The funny thing is that prices had started to decrease before Covid, they only started to increase again after Covid began

that is strange alright

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Those OECD international tax reforms will probably be agreed next year. We got extremely lucky last time. Hopefully we will be as lucky in the next 6 months.

Go on fill me in what are the tax reforms there props and what will it mean for Ireland

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So let me get this straight a full on global pandemic that we are currently experiencing you think this is the lull in the property market ???? I dont see many experts (self interest excluded) out there telling anyone that property is going up a lot are saying to stay away as it will definitely be going down. Look I am baffled at how well property is currently holding up given the circumstances of covid but the fundamentals of supply and demand are still strong for a seller currently but this could change tomorrow and like you I dont know if they will go up and down I deal in the here and now.

I'll agree it is weird. We have literally no idea at the moment on how the current situation is impacting or will feed through the local or global economy.

In the UK "Rising Mortgage Rates Are Squeezing Home Buyers in the U.K.", even though Bank of England rates are at an all time low. This is way too similar to how the beginnings of the last crash started...

Link to Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-10/mortgage-rates-raised-by-banks-as-home-buying-demand-surges-in-the-uk

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

Yes. But we're looking at why the here and now. With a view to that being a hollow situation (like worried folk clamouring to draw down mortgages)

There is no point talking about fundmentals when those can evaporate in a heartbeat. Other countries bear recessions better than we do and folk will simply ship out to where the work is if they need to.

The here and now show prices increasing. Funnily enough workers have been coming here from other countries to work see now a flippant comment like that "where the work is" that's the kind of thing I have to shoot down when I see it. I have put up immigration vs emigration figures for 2018 and 2019 I think 65k nett have come in. So your telling me all the brickies and builders etc will head off even do the government are talking about building how many more houses over the next how many years? There will be work in this country for the foreseeable future for those who want it. Obviously covid has to go away but sure you wont be able to emigrate until it has.

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

The here and now show prices increasing. Funnily enough workers have been coming here from other countries to work see now a flippant comment like that "where the work is" that's the kind of thing I have to shoot down when I see it. I have put up immigration vs emigration figures for 2018 and 2019 I think 65k nett have come in. So your telling me all the brickies and builders etc will head off even do the government are talking about building how many more houses over the next how many years? There will be work in this country for the foreseeable future for those who want it. Obviously covid has to go away but sure you wont be able to emigrate until it has.

Its not covid shoving off I was thinking of. It was 'the effect on the economy of covid' shoving off.

We don't know the effect yet, other than its being negative so far.

What need would there be for houses if the population was emigrating? You are, again, projecting a now situation (government now plans for housing need) onto a future situation. And supposing the government incapable of changing their plans in light of a new situation.

The question is what impact covid has on the economy. Everyone who is laid off or whose business has been destroyed spending like no tomorrow?

No cost for supporting a global lockdown to be paid back somehow?

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

Its not covid shoving off I was thinking of. It was 'the effect on the economy of covid' shoving off.

We don't know the effect yet, other than its being negative so far.

What need would there be for houses if the population was emigrating? You are, again, projecting a now situation (government now plans for housing need) onto a future situation. And supposing the government incapable of changing their plans in light of a new situation.

The question is what impact covid has on the economy. Everyone who is laid off or whose business has been destroyed spending like no tomorrow?

No cost for supporting a global lockdown to be paid back somehow?

Where are you getting that people are emigrating? I have figures for 2 years 2018 and 2019 and in the last 2 years preceding Covid we had 65k more people coming in to the country than leaving which would suggest there is work here. so I am merely contesting your statement people will go where the work is.

Also what we do know to date
Property has not dropped
Income tax has not dropped
Savings are up
We have to borrow 30billion between this year and next (worst case scenario)
We are borrowing this 30billion at near 0%
There will be a cure for Covid it will not be here indefinitely

When you think of how bad it has been over the last 10/11 months the above is actually not a bad situation to be in considering how bad it could of been.

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

So let me get this straight a full on global pandemic that we are currently experiencing you think this is the lull in the property market ????

Yes. There is a lull. Transactions are down more than 40% YoY in August for example.

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/lull

Cambridge English Dictionary wrote:

lull: a short period of calm in which little happens:

I'm not being smart by including the definition. I am only explaining the sense in which I am using the word.

Why there is a lull is distinct to the fact that there is a lull.

poker--addict

I had expected a drop but the rules of supply and demand will always be fundamental. The lack of demand is balanced by the lack of supply.

Even for those employed in secure jobs, uncertainty exists. Many companies will change. There will be more WFH. If someone can WFH two days a week that may enable longer commutes, and looking for a different type of property. Until there is clarity people won’t be in position to sell, buy, or move home.

One of Dublin’s biggest employers is in writing stating the 9-5, five days a week, in the office will never return

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

Yes. There is a lull. Transactions are down more than 40% YoY in August for example.

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/lull


I'm not being smart by including the definition. I am only explaining the sense in which I am using the word.

Why there is a lull is distinct to the fact that there is a lull.

Well not to be picky but the crash happened in 07 and in August the subprime crisis in the US got into difficulty which more or less signaled the start of when people knew the sh1t had or would hit the fan. By the end of the year property prices in Ireland had dropped by 7.3% and everyone knew prices were only going one way and that was down, know compare to today we have known about Covid since around this time last year. We had it hit Ireland in February add in we have known about Brexit for years and how much has property gone down in by in that time? Ans = feck all

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/house-prices-fell-by-7-3-in-2007-1.818100

Now I keep saying this but the last recession has absolutely no correlation to today. There was not one stage when the sh1t hit the fan in 2007 to 2011 that prices actually rose. So while I agree activity it down mainly due to the restrictive nature of Covid (and I can prove this), with all the moving parts, going to the bank, solicitor, EA, surveyor and then having to deal with a counterpart dealing with the same moving parts (if your buying or selling). If this lull was anything to do with economic reasoning then why are mortgage approvals up by over 27% on this time last year. which proves that the lull has feck all to do with the economy and can be squarely blamed at the additional time it takes for a house to go to market to getting the sale done and dusted.

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

Well not to be picky but the crash happened in 07 and in August the subprime crisis in the US got into difficulty which more or less signaled the start of when people knew the sh1t had or would hit the fan. By the end of the year property prices in Ireland had dropped by 7.3% and everyone knew prices were only going one way and that was down, know compare to today we have known about Covid since around this time last year. We had it hit Ireland in February add in we have known about Brexit for years and how much has property gone down in by in that time? Ans = feck all

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/house-prices-fell-by-7-3-in-2007-1.818100

Crash in US and crash in Ireland were completely different issues. The former was due to a buildup of junk debt being packaged and repackaged and sold via financial products using simplistic models to "justify" rating junk as high quality. There was political pressure put on banks to lend to subprime borrowers and those loans were sliced and diced and packed up and offloaded. Those dynamics were not in play in Ireland.


Nobody is comparing the reason for the crash back then to the reason for the crash now. I am just simply pointing out that a lull or stagnation is not an indication that prices will increase.
You appear to say that because there has been no noticeable fall up to now that they are not going to decrease. I simply pointed out that in 2008, there was a period over which prices stagnated and it preceded a fall.

Marius34

Donald Trump wrote: »

Crash in US and crash in Ireland were completely different issues. The former was due to a buildup of junk debt being packaged and repackaged and sold via financial products using simplistic models to "justify" rating junk as high quality. There was political pressure put on banks to lend to subprime borrowers and those loans were sliced and diced and packed up and offloaded. Those dynamics were not in play in Ireland.


Nobody is comparing the reason for the crash back then to the reason for the crash now. I am just simply pointing out that a lull or stagnation is not an indication that prices will increase.
You appear to say that because there has been no noticeable fall up to now that they are not going to decrease. I simply pointed out that in 2008, there was a period over which prices stagnated and it preceded a fall.

What do you mean price stagnated in 2008?
Property prices in Ireland did fall every single Quarter of 2008.

Donald Trump

Marius34 wrote: »

What do you mean price stagnated in 2008?
Property prices in Ireland did fall every single Quarter of 2008.

2007/2008/whatever. Whatever you want. There is no need to be that concerned about arguing over pedantics. Prices stagnated and levelled off before they fell. There was not an inverted v-shape. Prices increased, levelled off for a while, then fell.

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

Crash in US and crash in Ireland were completely different issues. The former was due to a buildup of junk debt being packaged and repackaged and sold via financial products using simplistic models to "justify" rating junk as high quality. There was political pressure put on banks to lend to subprime borrowers and those loans were sliced and diced and packed up and offloaded. Those dynamics were not in play in Ireland.


Nobody is comparing the reason for the crash back then to the reason for the crash now. I am just simply pointing out that a lull or stagnation is not an indication that prices will increase.
You appear to say that because there has been no noticeable fall up to now that they are not going to decrease. I simply pointed out that in 2008, there was a period over which prices stagnated and it preceded a fall.

And I have proven that the lull this year is due to the nature of Covid the demand is there as can be seen by the number of mortgage approvals. The lull in 08 was down to liquidity the banks hadn't a pot to p1ss in and had to cut right back on lending I also never said anything about prices falling or rising. I am contending this lull that your going on about that happened in 08 is no comparison to now therefore we cant assume that a fall in price will follow on from it

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

2007/2008/whatever. Whatever you want. There is no need to be that concerned about arguing over pedantics. Prices stagnated and levelled off before they fell. There was not an inverted v-shape. Prices increased, levelled off for a while, then fell.

Well its kind of important if you comparing lulls as has been pointed out property prices pretty much started dropping at the tail end of 07 and continued even if they staggered. In 2020 We had a small dip in the middle of the year and prices are starting to rise again same lull different results at no point between 2007 (August) to the end of 2011 did prices rise.

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

And I have proven that the lull this year is due to the nature of Covid the demand is there as can be seen by the number of mortgage approvals. The lull in 08 was down to liquidity the banks hadn't a pot to p1ss in and had to cut right back on lending I also never said anything about prices falling or rising. I am contending this lull that your going on about that happened in 08 is no comparison to now therefore we cant assume that a fall in price will follow on from it

Here is the "liquidity" + "hadn't got a pot to piss in" stats. As a previous poster pointed out, the lull was actually in 2007

Marius34

Donald Trump wrote: »

2007/2008/whatever. Whatever you want. There is no need to be that concerned about arguing over pedantics. Prices stagnated and levelled off before they fell. There was not an inverted v-shape. Prices increased, levelled off for a while, then fell.

Yes, they leveled off before recession but once recession hit it started to fall. Whereas this time, when recession hit, prices stayed relatively stable.

Donald Trump

fliball123 wrote: »

Well its kind of important if you comparing lulls as has been pointed out property prices pretty much started dropping at the tail end of 07 and continued even if they staggerede. In 2020 We had a small dip in the middle of the year and prices are starting to rise again same lull different results at no point between 2007 (August) to the end of 2011 did prices rise.

You appear to be suffering from confirmation bias. You are looking for stats to fit your pre-decided argument.

I am simply saying that a lull now is, to me, not incontrovertible evidence that prices will start to increase again next year.

Donald Trump

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, they leveled off before recession but once recession hit it started to fall. Whereas this time, when recession hit, prices stayed relatively stable.

The recession and the decline of property prices were, in Ireland, a case of chicken and egg. It was exacerbated by the global credit crisis of course. But also masked by that.

fliball123

Donald Trump wrote: »

You appear to be suffering from confirmation bias. You are looking for stats to fit your pre-decided argument.

I am simply saying that a lull now is, to me, not incontrovertible evidence that prices will start to increase again next year.

What am I trying to confirm? that 2020 is different to to 2008? of course it is and the liquidity dried up from banks after the crash in 07 we had drops at the tail end of 07 and in every quarter in 08. We are now 3 and a bit quarters in the Covid crash/recession/mess and this quarter we seen a rise in prices. So I agreed there was a lull and now prices are starting to rise. I have given proof that demand is still out there and liquidity from the banks has not gone away as mortgage approval is up over 27% on this time last year. I stated here months ago I expected prices to drop by 5% if you look back so I don't know what argument your talking about.

Mad_maxx

fliball123 wrote: »

And I have proven that the lull this year is due to the nature of Covid the demand is there as can be seen by the number of mortgage approvals. The lull in 08 was down to liquidity the banks hadn't a pot to p1ss in and had to cut right back on lending I also never said anything about prices falling or rising. I am contending this lull that your going on about that happened in 08 is no comparison to now therefore we cant assume that a fall in price will follow on from it

there was a complete lack of liquidity in the global credit system during the great recession , banks completely seized up

very different this time , governments have acted quickly and there is no shortage of credit

Mad_maxx

fliball123 wrote: »

Well its kind of important if you comparing lulls as has been pointed out property prices pretty much started dropping at the tail end of 07 and continued even if they staggerede. In 2020 We had a small dip in the middle of the year and prices are starting to rise again same lull different results at no point between 2007 (August) to the end of 2011 did prices rise.

prices peaked in the spring of 2007 , they began dropping after that but didnt begin to really fall hard until the september 2008 , like most bubbles , the last sharp shoot up to the spring 2007 peak was very short lived , between the summer of 2007 and the summer of 2009 , prices fell 40%

fliball123

Mad_maxx wrote: »

there was a complete lack of liquidity in the global credit system during the great recession , banks completely seized up

very different this time , governments have acted quickly and there is no shortage of credit

Exactly so with the lull of activity back in 07/08 the writing was on the wall the banks had no cash to lend anyway. I knew by the end of 07 not to go near property as it was only going one way. This is not the same today the lull is for a completely different reason as in what used to take 6 weeks to 3 months is taking a lot longer to complete. I wonder if anyone has any lead times on the time taken to get a mortgage process complete from start to finish in 2020 and compare to other years.

fliball123

Mad_maxx wrote: »

prices peaked in the spring of 2007 , they began dropping after that but didnt begin to really fall hard until the september 2008 , like most bubbles , the last sharp shoot up to the spring 2007 peak was very short lived , between the summer of 2007 and the summer of 2009 , prices fell 40%

I agree so the trajectory of 2007 and 2020 are completely different with regards to price. Now I aint saying prices wont drop I am saying if people are trying to use 08 as a comparison its not an appropriate one to use as the dynamics are completely different

thefridge2006

fliball123 wrote: »

So the snapshot I am taken is after 10/11 months of a global pandemic and if reports are to believed quite possibly the worst of the pandemic (if pfizer or the other vaccine out of Russia are hitting the 90% and 92% efficacy rates are to be believed) is over. So in the future or what lies beneath is the likelyhood of a "hitting of the play button" (as you put it) there will be spending once the virus is gone and saving rates show people have money in their accounts ready to spend if they want.

As I say comparing the crash to 08 is like comparing apples and a monkeys.

I agree with the other poster about Jan car sales. next year the first quarter will probably be the best indicator as to where we are within the economy as a whole

What are you talking about??? what reports? the same reports that are saying that this second wave is ravaging Europe? the same report that's saying one person in France is being hospitalised with Covid every 30 seconds? that 1 in 4 deaths are from Covid ? that more people are in hospital with it now than April.....?
The worst of the Pandemic is over........ lol keep your head in the sand

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

What are you talking about??? what reports? the same reports that are saying that this second wave is ravaging Europe? the same report that's saying one person in France is being hospitalised with Covid every 30 seconds? that 1 in 4 deaths are from Covid ? that more people are in hospital with it now than April.....?
The worst of the Pandemic is over........ lol keep your head in the sand

I am talking about already two different vaccine trials that have a 90% and 92% efficacy rates for Covid. Have you not been following?? google pfizer covid vaccine and have at it and your the one with your head in the sand if you have not heard about this yet. I also phrased "quite possibly" as there is still a lot of unknowns and a lot of suffering going on but if they come to fruition what you just put up there will be a thing of the past with a successful vaccine.

donnaille

fliball123 wrote: »

I am talking about already two different vaccine trials that have a 90% and 92% efficacy rates for Covid. Have you not been following?? google pfizer covid vaccine and have at it and your the one with your head in the sand if you have not heard about this yet. I also phrased "quite possibly" as there is still a lot of unknowns and a lot of suffering going on

As much as I'd like to believe the efficacy rates will be similar at scale, both are far greater than anything previously achieved for a virus. Even if true, it's far too early to call the worst of the pandemic at this point.

fliball123

donnaille wrote: »

As much as I'd like to believe the efficacy rates will be similar at scale, both are far greater than anything previously achieved for a virus. Even if true, it's far too early to call the worst go the pandemic at this point.

I did say if reports are to be believed ?

donnaille

fliball123 wrote: »

I did say if reports are to be believed ?

Ok? I'm not disagreeing, the 90% efficacy figure could move in either direction as the trial continues, believe that is the rate at the first data read-out - so it is to be believed at this point of the trial. Point being, it's early to be calling that we are over the worst.