Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

cnocbui wrote: »

I'm in my 3rd house. So far, I have not sold a house at below cost, quite the opposite. So if you were to put your house on the market, would you accept less than X if that's what the market said it was worth, or would you take it off the market?

I never mentioned selling below cost
You mentioned selling below cost
I said if the perceived value of your house is less than what the market values it at then you will not get what you think the house is worth
If I put it on the market and I did not get X I would have a choice to make
Either sell or stick
That would all depend on the value in the property I was moving to ( we all need a home ) or weather I was in a position where for financial reasons I had to sell.
As I’m mortgage free and have been for years that would hopefully not arise

Hubertj

brisan wrote: »

They obviously set the asking price low ( compared to what they think the house is worth not what it actually is worth ) in the hope of starting a bidding war
When the bidding war did not happen they pulled out as they never received their perceived value of the house
The same people will then more than likely underbid on a property they are interested in buying
Some People have a weird attachment to their property and it’s perceived value

I think the estate agent has to take some responsibility in these situations. They likely advised the owner to set the price at X to attract bids. Then it will sell for X + Y. This sets the owners expectation of the value. When Y doesn’t happen the owner thinks their property is not getting what its worth...

Sweet.Science

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the estate agent has to take some responsibility in these situations. They likely advised the owner to set the price at X to attract bids. Then it will sell for X + Y. This sets the owners expectation of the value. When Y doesn’t happen the owner thinks their property is not getting what its worth...

Estate agents want the business . They can discuss it if it's not selling but they want the business first and foremost

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

I think when a house is being sold and your looking at the price it will sell for I think the main 6 factors in play would be

What the seller wants for it - If they don't like the price they don't have to sell

What the buyer will pay for it - If they don't like the price they don't have to buy

The scarcity of property or properties that rival what is being sold - Property at the moment (quality in good areas) seems to be getting scarcer by the day.

The quality of the property vs rival properties - If there are 20 properties beside you all for sale you may have to battle them by dropping your price to make more attractive to buy

How many people will be competing to buy this property - Well with the amount of mortgage approvals and the supply of new houses draining away I reckon there will be a lot of competition.

Access to lending - billions being flooded into the bank at 0% do we think banks wont lend this on and make 3/4%

Every property will find its price point through the above 6 IMO

Exactly
If the house is sold it will be the market that sets the price not the seller
Houses going over asking is a clear example of the market setting the price not the seller
Don’t see many sellers saying I don’t want 420k I only want 400k because that’s what I think it’s worth
Same applies to overpriced property, you cannot demand what no one is prepared to pay

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the estate agent has to take some responsibility in these situations. They likely advised the owner to set the price at X to attract bids. Then it will sell for X + Y. This sets the owners expectation of the value. When Y doesn’t happen the owner thinks their property is not getting what its worth...

EAs have a load of tricks they use
It’s a game to them and unless you know the rules they play by you are at a disadvantage
An EA does not want to get an extra 20 k on a house for the extra commission
He wants it so he can tell other clients “ look at the prices we get compared to the EA down the road “
That way he gets more business
He does not care if you personally get 20k or not
He has you hooked it’s the next fish he is after

brisan

brisan wrote: »

EAs have a load of tricks they use
It’s a game to them and unless you know the rules they play by you are at a disadvantage
An EA does not want to get an extra 20 k on a house for the extra commission
He wants it so he can tell other clients “ look at the prices we get compared to the EA down the road “
That way he gets more business
He does not care if you personally get 20k or not
He has you hooked it’s the next fish he is after

He will tell you look at No 25 up at 450k , he will tell you if it sold at 470k but he will not tell you if it sold at 430k

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Well it isnt disingenuous as it a comparison on year on year. Mortgage approvals in Sept 2020 are up 27% on Sept 2019 . I use this date as its the last date that there are figures for. Where did you get the Drawdown volumes from?

There are quarterly drawdown reports on the BPFI site.

Its a comparison of a discrete time period 12 months apart with a whole market step change in that period.

If someone came on here quoting June figures YOY and claiming "look, demand has collapsed, no one wants houses" they would get equally short shrift.

To give another impact of Covid on stats and why they sometimes need to be taken with large mountains of salt, you could legitimately state, "the birth rate in Scotland collapsed in March and April 2020" as only 80 babies had their births registered in Scotland in March and April because the registration office pretty much closed. Statistics need to be very much interrogated at present.

Marius34

Browney7 wrote: »

There are quarterly drawdown reports on the BPFI site.

Its a comparison of a discrete time period 12 months apart with a whole market step change in that period.

If someone came on here quoting June figures YOY and claiming "look, demand has collapsed, no one wants houses" they would get equally short shrift.

To give another impact of Covid on stats and why they sometimes need to be taken with large mountains of salt, you could legitimately state, "the birth rate in Scotland collapsed in March and April 2020" as only 80 babies had their births registered in Scotland in March and April because the registration office pretty much closed. Statistics need to be very much interrogated at present.

True, but at the same time, recent mortgage approvals shows that large fall in the mortgage demands/approvals was short lived. As likely number of transactions/drawdowns.

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

There are quarterly drawdown reports on the BPFI site.

Its a comparison of a discrete time period 12 months apart with a whole market step change in that period.

If someone came on here quoting June figures YOY and claiming "look, demand has collapsed, no one wants houses" they would get equally short shrift.

To give another impact of Covid on stats and why they sometimes need to be taken with large mountains of salt, you could legitimately state, "the birth rate in Scotland collapsed in March and April 2020" as only 80 babies had their births registered in Scotland in March and April because the registration office pretty much closed. Statistics need to be very much interrogated at present.

I was just surprised that mortgage approvals had gone up by that much year on year with a pandemic raging globally but I know you cannot take any metric as gospel for this year

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

True, but at the same time, recent mortgage approvals shows that large fall in the mortgage demands/approvals was short lived. As likely number of transactions/drawdowns.

As can be seen on other threads there is a long way to go between AIP and drawdown

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

As can be seen on other threads there is a long way to go between AIP and drawdown

Is there a metric for actual mortgage draw downs this year it would probably be the biggest and most accurate measure of demand

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

As can be seen on other threads there is a long way to go between AIP and drawdown

Sure, it may be 2021 Q1/Q2 before transactions/drawdowns returns closer to pre-crisis levels, although 2020 Q4 is returning not far from the levels.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

Is there a metric for actual mortgage draw downs this year it would probably be the biggest and most accurate measure of demand

http://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-time-series-Q3-2020.xls

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

http://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-time-series-Q3-2020.xls

Got there before me

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

Sure, it may be 2021 Q1/Q2 before transactions/drawdowns returns closer to pre-crisis levels, although 2020 Q4 is returning not far from the levels.

Q1 2019 AND 2020 much the same
Q2 AND Q3 for this year well down
10,157 AND 11,194 last year
6,622 and 8,220 for this year
Q4 last year was 12,259 this year it's 8220 up till the date the report was issued which I cannot see

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

Q1 2019 AND 2020 much the same
Q2 AND Q3 for this year well down
10,157 AND 11,194 last year
6,622 and 8,220 for this year
Q4 last year was 12,259 this year it's 8220 up till the date the report was issued which I cannot see

2020 Q4, official data won't be available until end of Jan/beginning of Feb.

antiskeptic

brisan wrote: »

Q1 2019 AND 2020 much the same
Q2 AND Q3 for this year well down
10,157 AND 11,194 last year
6,622 and 8,220 for this year
Q4 last year was 12,259 this year it's 8220 up till the date the report was issued which I cannot see

I wonder what proportion of the difference is the result of buyers holding off and what proportion of the difference is the the result of buyers being told to feck off by their bank, their circumstances having being altered by Covid.

Presumably if their circumstances stay altered they won't be buying anytime soon.

What was it, 350k people on PUP (out of a workforce of 2.2 mil (2.4 mil total - 200k unemployed). Nearly 1/6 of the workforce).

I wonder would banks be taking a dimmer view on employment types more vulnerable to recession. Like, if I was planning on lending money I'd be taking that view. The dizzy prospect of 3% on free money notwithstanding.

antiskeptic

brisan wrote: »

Q1 2019 AND 2020 much the same
Q2 AND Q3 for this year well down
10,157 AND 11,194 last year
6,622 and 8,220 for this year
Q4 last year was 12,259 this year it's 8220 up till the date the report was issued which I cannot see

Whats last quarter 2018? Anecdotally, Brexit put a dampener on 2nd half of 2019 - if true then 2020 is even worse.

brisan

antiskeptic wrote: »

I wonder what proportion of the difference is the result of buyers holding off and what proportion of the difference is the the result of buyers being told to feck off by their bank, their circumstances having being altered by Covid.

Presumably if their circumstances stay altered they won't be buying anytime soon.

What was it, 350k people on PUP (out of a workforce of 2.2 mil (2.4 mil total - 200k unemployed). Nearly 1/6 of the workforce).

I wonder would banks be taking a dimmer view on employment types more vulnerable to recession. Like, if I was planning on lending money I'd be taking that view. The dizzy prospect of 3% on free money notwithstanding.

People on here were saying that people on PUP were mainly on low wages to start with
And I quote
"Those people will never be buying a property so they do not affect the property market "
You could not make it up

brisan

antiskeptic wrote: »

Whats last quarter 2018? Anecdotally, Brexit put a dampener on 2nd half of 2019 - if true then 2020 is even worse.

2015 Q1 2,911 1,875 327 186 318 5,617
Q2 3,164 2,018 255 281 402 6,120
Q3 3,560 2,453 321 331 490 7,155
Q4 3,761 2,620 399 635 578 7,993
2016 Q1 2,585 1,755 294 420 393 5,447
Q2 3,297 2,153 317 493 543 6,803
Q3 3,952 2,622 320 674 565 8,133
Q4 4,238 2,987 371 851 668 9,115
2017 Q1 3,290 2,240 313 641 460 6,944
Q2 3,979 2,438 344 667 570 7,998
Q3 4,885 2,854 343 777 647 9,506
Q4 5,249 3,085 375 985 656 10,350
2018 Q1 3,799 2,250 353 969 508 7,879
Q2 4,547 2,495 339 1,304 654 9,339
Q3 5,247 3,077 403 1,420 726 10,873
Q4 5,751 3,463 399 1,684 815 12,112
2019 Q1 4,061 2,340 272 1,328 576 8,577
Q2 5,040 2,644 303 1,447 723 10,157
Q3 5,999 3,178 309 1,428 880 11,794
Q4 6,386 3,187 368 1,473 845 12,259
2020 Q1 4,400 2,300 232 1,209 587 8,728
Q2 3,285 1,595 155 1,119 468 6,622
Q3 4,217 2,007 172 1,266 558 8,220

Its the line on the extreme right that is the total drawdown for that quarter
Those are drawdown figures from

https://www.bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-drawdowns/

poker--addict

antiskeptic wrote: »

I wonder what proportion of the difference is the result of buyers holding off and what proportion of the difference is the the result of buyers being told to feck off by their bank, their circumstances having being altered by Covid.

Good point.

antiskeptic

brisan wrote: »

People on here were saying that people on PUP were mainly on low wages to start with
And I quote
"Those people will never be buying a property so they do not affect the property market "
You could not make it up

This wasn't the same poster who was talking about all the inward immigration raising demand for housing, by any chance?

As if inward immigrants consist largely of high net worth individuals. As if the demand for roofs o'er heads meant a damn thing to the banks who lend money. Surely their only interested in loaning to immigrants who can repay the loan.
l
I don't imagine the influx of migrants from Romania, Poland, etc., the ones manning our low wage jobs by the 1000's are quite mortgage material.

Then again: if they come you will build it. And can then rent it to them.

The only trouble, judging by the 50 Phillipinos who appear to occupy a 3 bed close to me, is that you ought not be calculating your housing need based on rental occupancy of 2.64 heads per household.

brisan

antiskeptic wrote: »

This wasn't the same poster who was talking about all the inward immigration raising demand for housing, by any chance?

As if inward immigrants consist largely of high net worth individuals. As if the demand for roofs o'er heads meant a damn thing to the banks who lend money. Surely their only interested in loaning to immigrants who can repay the loan.
l
I don't imagine the influx of migrants from Romania, Poland, etc., the ones manning our low wage jobs by the 1000's are quite mortgage material.

Then again: if they come you will build it. And can then rent it to them.

The only trouble, judging by the 50 Phillipinos who appear to occupy a 3 bed close to me, is that you ought not be calculating your housing need based on rental occupancy of 2.64 heads per household.

I /we had a 3 bed one bathroom house in Donaghmede rented out to foreign nationals
I called in one day to find a double bed in each of the main bedrooms,2 bunks in the boxroom and a double bed in the front room
8 people ,one bathroom and a small kitchen -dining room to live in
Soon got rid of the bed downstairs
Apart from that great tenants

antiskeptic

poker--addict wrote: »

Good point.

D'ja hear the one about a bank being sold a PUP?

Me neither

fliball123

antiskeptic wrote: »

This wasn't the same poster who was talking about all the inward immigration raising demand for housing, by any chance?

As if inward immigrants consist largely of high net worth individuals. As if the demand for roofs o'er heads meant a damn thing to the banks who lend money. Surely their only interested in loaning to immigrants who can repay the loan.
l
I don't imagine the influx of migrants from Romania, Poland, etc., the ones manning our low wage jobs by the 1000's are quite mortgage material.

Then again: if they come you will build it. And can then rent it to them.

The only trouble, judging by the 50 Phillipinos who appear to occupy a 3 bed close to me, is that you ought not be calculating your housing need based on rental occupancy of 2.64 heads per household.

Have you any stats on the breakdown of inward migration?? I simply put you back in your box when you suggested that people would be leaving Ireland for work after Covid as if it were the 80s again. I simply showed you proof that in the 2 years coming up to Covid 2018 and 2019 we had 69/70k people more people coming in than leaving as guess what there seems to be jobs here or at least there was up until Covid and regardless of if they can get a mortgage or not they still need to live somewhere

antiskeptic

brisan wrote: »

I /we had a 3 bed one bathroom house in Donaghmede rented out to foreign nationals
I called in one day to find a double bed in each of the main bedrooms,2 bunks in the boxroom and a double bed in the front room
8 people ,one bathroom and a small kitchen -dining room to live in
Soon got rid of the bed downstairs
Apart from that great tenants

Dunno why you got rid of it - it merely raised their rent (I presume you didn't cut the rent proportionately). Means they can send more money home to (probably) impoverished family.

That living space might well have been the lap of luxury. Besides, given the hours the low waged work, there probably is room aplenty in the house.

I work with Romanians. Great folk and work like the Irish probably used to when they were in the same boat. Leave them to it I say.

You Dickensian you..

thomas 123

antiskeptic wrote: »

This wasn't the same poster who was talking about all the inward immigration raising demand for housing, by any chance?

As if inward immigrants consist largely of high net worth individuals. As if the demand for roofs o'er heads meant a damn thing to the banks who lend money. Surely their only interested in loaning to immigrants who can repay the loan.
l
I don't imagine the influx of migrants from Romania, Poland, etc., the ones manning our low wage jobs by the 1000's are quite mortgage material.

Then again: if they come you will build it. And can then rent it to them.

The only trouble, judging by the 50 Phillipinos who appear to occupy a 3 bed close to me, is that you ought not be calculating your housing need based on rental occupancy of 2.64 heads per household.

They might not be mortgage material, but the councils that buy the houses or pay out HAP are !

Cyrus

antiskeptic wrote: »

This wasn't the same poster who was talking about all the inward immigration raising demand for housing, by any chance?

As if inward immigrants consist largely of high net worth individuals. As if the demand for roofs o'er heads meant a damn thing to the banks who lend money. Surely their only interested in loaning to immigrants who can repay the loan.
l
I don't imagine the influx of migrants from Romania, Poland, etc., the ones manning our low wage jobs by the 1000's are quite mortgage material.

Then again: if they come you will build it. And can then rent it to them.

The only trouble, judging by the 50 Phillipinos who appear to occupy a 3 bed close to me, is that you ought not be calculating your housing need based on rental occupancy of 2.64 heads per household.

You seem to be right about everything except property prices which don’t support your posts .

Funny that.

antiskeptic

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you any stats on the breakdown of inward migration?? I simply put you back in your box when you suggested that people would be leaving Ireland for work after Covid as if it were the 80s again. I simply showed you proof that in the 2 years coming up to Covid 2018 and 2019 we had 69/70k people more people coming in than leaving as guess what there seems to be jobs here or at least there was up until Covid and regardless of if they can get a mortgage or not they still need to live somewhere

No idea on the breakdown. But put it this way; I'd be shocked and stunned if anyone suggested other than that, by a large, it is low wage migrant workers that form the bulk of incomers. Yeah, some returning Irish, yeah, some Google heads. But there are factories to be manned and fields to be harvested. That requires solid chunks of cheap labour. Big, solid chunks.

The only problem I have with your analysis is that it presumes the only way is up. That the vaccine will come, Covid will go ... and we'll all rock back to skinny lattes (served up by the aforementioned migrant workers).

I find that a bewildering and rather hopeful pov.

I mean, say retail doesn't quite roll back upright. Say all this online shopping means the high street takes a hit? Reasonable? What happens to the skinny latte economy of yours? What happens to the migrant workers upon whose influx your house price stability is based?

Say there is a move to home working whereever there's broadband (the folk I sold to in Wicklow had been located in central Dublin and moved out solely because homeworking meant they could)

Rising prices in the sticks. Falling prices in the 'burbs'? Overall prices down (a house in the sticks is cheaper like for like).

poker--addict

Too many people in a house exponentially causes wear and tear. If you rent to 4 or 5 people i don't expect 8 to be living in it.