Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

We have had QE since 2015 and no sign of inflation except asset inflation as money didn’t make its way to the wider economy. This time it should hit the wider economy as government are spending but whether that generates inflation is yet to be seen. Logic says it should as the currency is worth less as there is more cash in circulation but when the QE was announced the euro increased in value by 2% reducing the likelihood of inflation. On the other hand the ECB published last week a report about the risks of side effects of QE and highlighted that property values increase and make them unaffordable. Ireland should be ok as the central bank has the income cap but if you look at Germany, Netherlands they are offering 100% mortgages again as the banks try and shift excess liquidity off their balance sheets as it costing them so much to hold.

Unless they get the official inflation rate up by changing how they measure it:

“ He said the Central Bank last looked at the methods used in measuring inflation back in 2003 and that it intended to re-examine them in the light of Covid.”

Link to RTE here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165123-central-bank-on-inflation/

As I believe, they need to get the inflation figure up so they can raise interest rates so the pension funds can start pretending to be able to meet their future pension liabilities/obligations again.

Interest rates will most likely rise further and faster and much sooner than people realise which will impact all property values negatively.

cnocbui

Pelezico wrote: »

We are having QE on steroids. There will be no crash, just inflation. Some will suffer of course but there will be a boom.

We have had a decade of QE. Where's the inflation? The QE is being increased because of the lack of the economic activity that leads to inflation.

I'd welcome some good old fashioned inflation and cash investments that actually yielded a return.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Unless they get the official inflation rate up by changing how they measure it:

“ He said the Central Bank last looked at the methods used in measuring inflation back in 2003 and that it intended to re-examine them in the light of Covid.”

Link to RTE here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165123-central-bank-on-inflation/

As I believe, they need to get the inflation figure up so they can raise interest rates so the pension funds can start pretending to be able to meet their future pension liabilities/obligations again.

Interest rates will most likely rise further and faster and much sooner than people realise which will impact all property values negatively.

So if I am reading this correctly you are saying the government want to increase rates and pay more on their debt financing the exact opposite of why the ECB are artificially keeping rates low via their QE program!!!!!!!

Do you know what you are talking about or are you just scrapping the bottom of the barrel to justify a house price crash?

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

So if I am reading this correctly you are saying the government want to increase rates and pay more on their debt financing the exact opposite of why the ECB are artificially keeping rates low via their QE program!!!!!!!

Do you know what you are talking about or are you just scrapping the bottom of the barrel to justify a house price crash?

Contrary to the narrative, the ECB doesn’t care about government debt levels as most eurozone countries have very management debt/gdp levels.

They care about getting the official inflation figure up (artificially if needs be) so they can increase interest rates so the pension funds can pretend they can meet their future liabilities.

The eurozone countries unfunded pension liabilities dwarf the eurozone governments debt levels and are getting worse by the day.

All you have to do is google debt/gdp levels for each eurozone countries. Then google each countries unfunded pension liabilities.

Which one would you be more concerned about if you were on the board of the ECB? And remember, the ECB must take into account the needs of all their member countries and not just the few who borrowed heavily over the past ten years to maintain the pay and pensions of civil and public sector workers that pay a multiple of what similar workers in the majority of the other eurozone countries make.

Hubertj

This is as plausible and opinion as some of the others proposed on this thread over the last few days. I think property prices will increase because contact will be made with alien life and these aliens will move to Ireland. They will need somewhere to live and will have loads of cash.
That’s just my opinion though. My opinion is back up by the fact that there are definitely UFOs out there. When we see them in the sky they are actually viewing properties.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Contrary to the narrative, the ECB doesn’t care about government debt levels as most eurozone countries have very management debt/gdp levels.

They care about getting the official inflation figure up (artificially if needs be) so they can increase interest rates so the pension funds can pretend they can meet their future liabilities.

The eurozone countries unfunded pension liabilities dwarf the eurozone governments debt levels and are getting worse by the day.

All you have to do is google debt/gdp levels for each eurozone countries. Then google each countries unfunded pension liabilities.

Which one would you be more concerned about if you were on the board of the ECB? And remember, the ECB must take into account the needs of all their member countries and not just the few who borrowed heavily over the past ten years to maintain the pay and pensions of civil and public sector workers that pay a multiple of what similar workers in the majority of the other eurozone countries make.

So pension are only influenced by interest rate? No pension funds invests in any other asset classes like property or equities?

And now the ECB’s mandate is solve the pension crisis.

You talk some ****t!!!!

mcsean2163

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Are houses generally going for above asking in your area. If you go in quick with an increased offer they may wait anyway to see if a higher offer comes in from someone else. I'd let your offer sit for a week or 2.

Hard to know the circumstances in your case though.

The area we're looking is Kildare. It's hard to know, we put the offer in last Monday and were told the seller has been notified but that there's a lot of others doing second viewings this week, etc.

I would have thought time of year etc would be in our favour, might be best to pull the offer and let it go back to the lower one which was 30k less. I guess they're holding out for the best offer etc. whereas we're on a tight schedule. Then again maybe increasing 10k might be worth it if we closed fast. It's a tough one surprised by the level of interest the auctioneer is reporting...

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

So pension are only influenced by interest rate? No pension funds invests in any other asset classes like property or equities?

And now the ECB’s mandate is solve the pension crisis.

You talk some ****t!!!!

Property and equities are volatile and probably overpriced and there’s not that many of them to buy into. Pension funds need to invest in safe assets and government bonds and deposits are the only safe assets and before the late 2000’s crisis they needed a return of 7%. Now they need more.

If you’re thinking the ECB and other eurozone countries aren’t thinking “pension timebomb” ahead of debt/gdp ratios you’re wrong IMO.

Germany didn’t leave in that million plus refugees in 2015 because they’re nice. They need workers to pay the pensions of all the existing workers retiring. That’s the extent they’re already willing to go to. I don’t think raising interest rates to 5%, 6% etc. will bother them too much if it helps solve this problem.

Graham

Mod Note

ok folks, fair to say we're heading way off topic here. Please take the discussion of QE/ECB to the appropriate forum, and the discussion of vacant property here.

KingoftheSpoof

I can't get a call back by estate agents at the moment. Rang to enquirie about two new builds and both said they would send me on what's available and follow up with me. Zilch. Nada.

They must have people kicking down their doors. I'm also not in a chain so would be a "preference" to them.

It's nuts.

mcsean2163

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The area we're looking is Kildare. It's hard to know, we put the offer in last Monday and were told the seller has been notified but that there's a lot of others doing second viewings this week, etc.

I would have thought time of year etc would be in our favour, might be best to pull the offer and let it go back to the lower one which was 30k less. I guess they're holding out for the best offer etc. whereas we're on a tight schedule. Then again maybe increasing 10k might be worth it if we closed fast. It's a tough one surprised by the level of interest the auctioneer is reporting...

Is the house up long? I don't think there is a mad rush unless they have indicated another 10K will secure it. Otherwise it will just be banked and used to bait the next offer from someone else.

You should be notified of any counter offers.

KingoftheSpoof

Deleted User wrote: »

Is the house up long? I don't think there is a mad rush unless they have indicated another 10K will secure it. Otherwise it will just be banked and used to bait the next offer from someone else.

You should be notified of any counter offers.

It's a new build with plenty of the houses left or so they told me on the phone. Two different estate agents both said they would follow up with email or call and nothing.

Maybe it'd bad sales or something but there's no rush to me so things must be Rosie

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

But on a brighter note, a house valued today at c. €400k will most likely have a value of c. €100k in 5 years so a 2% property tax would only amount to c. €2k per year instead of c. €8k per year.

Your posts have reached parody status. Complete and utter rubbish.

A 400k house will be worth at least 550k in 5 years time.

I don't have any evidence to back this up, I assume we're just making up numbers at this point.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Your posts have reached parody status. Complete and utter rubbish.

A 400k house will be worth at least 550k in 5 years time.

I don't have any evidence to back this up, I assume we're just making up numbers at this point.

Well the experience of the very recent past would give some credence to my viewpoint. In 2015:

“In Limerick, for example, one probable investor acquired nine apartments at the Broad Leaf development in the city centre for just €65,000, or about €7,200 each. An investor could expect rents of about €400 a month for a two-bed at the development. In nearby Shannon, Co Clare, 23 apartments were acquired for just €14,354 each at the Linden Apartment Blocks.“

Link to Irish times article in 2016 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/ireland-s-bargain-properties-one-in-four-sell-for-under-100-000-1.2816064

If apartments were selling for as low as €7,000 in 2015 in limerick city, isn’t it feasible they can drop back to that level again in the next 5 years?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the experience of the very recent past would give some credence to my viewpoint. In 2015:

“In Limerick, for example, one probable investor acquired nine apartments at the Broad Leaf development in the city centre for just €65,000, or about €7,200 each. An investor could expect rents of about €400 a month for a two-bed at the development. In nearby Shannon, Co Clare, 23 apartments were acquired for just €14,354 each at the Linden Apartment Blocks.“

Link to Irish times article in 2016 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/ireland-s-bargain-properties-one-in-four-sell-for-under-100-000-1.2816064

If apartments were selling for as low as €7,000 in 2015 in limerick city, isn’t it feasible they can drop back to that level again in the next 5 years?

Can you give an actual example of these 100k properties in Dublin that are now selling for 400k please just so it doesn’t look like you are making stuff up.

To be fair, there were any amount of houses in the Dublin 7 area that sold for less then 100,000 euro during the recession, they are worth more than 300,000 now.

That's just a very small part, I'm sure there are plenty of examples. But the recession was very tough for a few years & house prices were rock bottom.

Thestart

My sister paid €66k in 2011 for 2bed in Cabra, now worth €280k

Cyrus

As I said I’d like to see something that sold for 100k or less and subsequently sold for 400k I’d wager it doesn’t exist without extensive upgrades

I would think that it probably did happen, houses were extremely cheap during the recession, so were any renovations.

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

I would think that it probably did happen, houses were extremely cheap during the recession, so were any renovations.

If I was renovated that’s a different thing , value was added, aul props was referring to the same thing being worth 100k at one point and 400k at another within a few years .

Thestart

House my sister purchased was a dump!!!!! All upgraded now.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the experience of the very recent past would give some credence to my viewpoint. In 2015:

“In Limerick, for example, one probable investor acquired nine apartments at the Broad Leaf development in the city centre for just €65,000, or about €7,200 each. An investor could expect rents of about €400 a month for a two-bed at the development. In nearby Shannon, Co Clare, 23 apartments were acquired for just €14,354 each at the Linden Apartment Blocks.“

Link to Irish times article in 2016 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/ireland-s-bargain-properties-one-in-four-sell-for-under-100-000-1.2816064

If apartments were selling for as low as €7,000 in 2015 in limerick city, isn’t it feasible they can drop back to that level again in the next 5 years?

This argument is complete rubbish and you know it.

Your trying to get reactions, and your arguments (which were previously in the here and now) are now based on 5--10 year timespans, as it's obvious your predictions (or hopes) are not coming through.

In a thread on the property market 2020, where your arguments have been discredited by actual real data (rather than links to articles from 2017), that a collapse is imminent... Its really strange you now need to change it up and convince every one a collapse is coming in 5-10 years.

Will you ever tell us the agenda here PropQueries ? You've been a man/woman on a serious mission the past 8 months. Posting daily, multiple links, multiple sites, always the exact same narrative.

House's were also previously 20% higher than are were today, isn't it possible they could go back to that level again in the next five years?

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

This argument is complete rubbish and you know it.

Your trying to get reactions, and your arguments (which were previously in the here and now) are now based on 5--10 year timespans, as it's obvious your predictions (or hopes) are not coming through.

In a thread on the property market 2020, where your arguments have been discredited by actual real data (rather than links to articles from 2017), that a collapse is imminent... Its really strange you now need to change it up and convince every one a collapse is coming in 5-10 years.

Will you ever tell us the agenda here PropQueries ? You've been a man/woman on a serious mission the past 8 months. Posting daily, multiple links, multiple sites, always the exact same narrative.

House's were also previously 20% higher than are were today, isn't it possible they could go back to that level again in the next five years?

Well I believe the bigger developers would disagree with you as CBRE published a report 2 weeks ago stating:

“Several developers are at an advanced stage of negotiation with both local authorities and the Housing Agency, which will provide some much-needed social housing stock in a range of different local authority areas in due course“.

So I believe the big developers have already quietly called the top and are now falling over themselves (with suspiciously little media attention IMO) to sign up to those long term lease agreements with the council before the allocated money runs out as they probably now realise there is most likely little to no demand for their units from either the buyer or renter side in the private rental/sales market.

Link to CBRE report here: https://www.cbre.ie/en/research-and-reports/Ireland-Bi-Monthly-Research-Report-November-2020

Smaller developers or investors who were thinking of selling this year but have now held off until next year in the hope of achieving a higher price will (IMO) end up being very disappointed when they realise all that pent-up demand they have been told about may not really exist.

By then it will be too late to sell IMO but each to their own as they say.

Mad_maxx

cnocbui wrote: »

You realise you are agreeing with me and supporting what I said?

huh

you both expressed scepticism that good properties could be bought in Dublin for 100 k circa 2011 and also seemed to believe buying in limerick for 100 k was extremely cheap at that time

im saying your,e wrong on both counts , good stuff was available for 100 k in dublin in 2011 for 100k and available in limerick for 100k as recent as 2015 , i should know , i bought some of it

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

“Several developers are at an advanced stage of negotiation with both local authorities and the Housing Agency, which will provide some much-needed social housing stock in a range of different local authority areas in due course“.

As previous transactions have demonstrated these arrangements are generally at market rate which adds zero support to a 'called the top' theory.

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the experience of the very recent past would give some credence to my viewpoint. In 2015:

“In Limerick, for example, one probable investor acquired nine apartments at the Broad Leaf development in the city centre for just €65,000, or about €7,200 each. An investor could expect rents of about €400 a month for a two-bed at the development. In nearby Shannon, Co Clare, 23 apartments were acquired for just €14,354 each at the Linden Apartment Blocks.“

Link to Irish times article in 2016 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/ireland-s-bargain-properties-one-in-four-sell-for-under-100-000-1.2816064

If apartments were selling for as low as €7,000 in 2015 in limerick city, isn’t it feasible they can drop back to that level again in the next 5 years?

that " job lot " was not remotely representiitive of any kind of market , the lowest property prices for Limerick was around mount kennet where two bed apartments sold for around 40 k at the allsopp auctions in dublin in 2015 ( i bought myself in Dooradoyle the very same day and attended several of those auctions ) , those are about 95 k today on average as its a poor location

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Well I believe the bigger developers would disagree with you as CBRE published a report 2 weeks ago stating:

“Several developers are at an advanced stage of negotiation with both local authorities and the Housing Agency, which will provide some much-needed social housing stock in a range of different local authority areas in due course“.

So I believe the big developers have already quietly called the top and are now falling over themselves (with suspiciously little media attention IMO) to sign up to those long term lease agreements with the council before the allocated money runs out as they probably now realise there is most likely little to no demand for their units from either the buyer or renter side in the private rental/sales market.

Link to CBRE report here: https://www.cbre.ie/en/research-and-reports/Ireland-Bi-Monthly-Research-Report-November-2020

Smaller developers or investors who were thinking of selling this year but have now held off until next year in the hope of achieving a higher price will (IMO) end up being very disappointed when they realise all that pent-up demand they have been told about may not really exist.

By then it will be too late to sell IMO but each to their own as they say.

Again, what you believe is dressed up and framed in a certain way to push your narrative.

These houses are being sold at current market values, not at massive discounts as you like to state or suggest is occurring.

Give it a rest PropQueries, it's very easy for people to see through your posts.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

As previous transactions have demonstrated these arrangements are generally at market rate which adds zero support to a 'called the top' theory.

That’s true. They’re trying to lock in yesterday’s perceived “market rents” before it’s too late and before the real market rents become general knowledge.

Once the true current market rents become general knowledge they will be late, hence their current rush to lock them in now IMO.

thefridge2006

fliball123 wrote: »

I never said property was on the way up I said it had risen big difference. The reason to be hopeful is we are close to a cure you can read into pfizer or the russian vaccine yourself. You keep going on about people who lost there job and seem completely unable to understand that a lot of people didn't lose their job, the world did not go into shutdown as you stated. There are still more people working in Ireland than not working that is a fact and once the virus is gone there will be an uplift with people who have been forced into saving will be ready to spend (now they may not necessarily spend on property do).

What happens is the worker has to adapt get online/computer experience as some areas go more automated or online and jobs will decrease but you completely ignore areas like tourism, hospitality and hotels which will bounce back to where it was and further ignore areas like package/food deliveries, IT, Pharma, construction, healthcare that are all going to need a lot more people working in them. Its not up to you or me to tell people what way the wind is blowing but if they want work there will be plenty there for them if they adapt/retrain/reeducate.

The problem with your analysis is its nearly always your opinion anything I have put up I have tried put figures behind the statement but you come out with a commentary that would suggest that almost all the 69k workers who came in to live here in the last 2 years are all on low wages and you have not one shred of evidence to back it up. I cant prove you wrong but you cant prove your right

EHHHH What? It didnt go into shutdown? you mean i stayed indoors for weeks on end by mistake?????

More people were still working in 08 too....that worked out well also....:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Mad_maxx

bubblypop wrote: »

To be fair, there were any amount of houses in the Dublin 7 area that sold for less then 100,000 euro during the recession, they are worth more than 300,000 now.

That's just a very small part, I'm sure there are plenty of examples. But the recession was very tough for a few years & house prices were rock bottom.

not too many sold for under 100k in Dublin 7 that are over 300 k today , vast majority in D7 that dipped under 100k were apartments and those would still not be over 300 k today , two bed terraced houses in stoneybatter that needed work dipped as low as 140 k ( turn key no lower than 185 k around oxmantown road ) , those would be across 300 k today alright , D8 is a different story