Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Again, what you believe is dressed up and framed in a certain way to push your narrative.

These houses are being sold at current market values, not at massive discounts as you like to state or suggest is occurring.

Give it a rest PropQueries, it's very easy for people to see through your posts.

They’re not being sold at current market values as many are not being sold at all IMO

There was one poster recently who put up an example of an 80 unit development in Malahide that was completed last year and only 4 sales were recorded on the PPR as of this month.

thefridge2006

PropQueries wrote: »

That’s been my fear. There’s nothing left to tax that would make any meaningful impact on the governments finances except my home and my pension.

They’ve proven time and again that they won’t touch civil and public sector wages or pensions.

In fact just over a month ago they signed up to a new hospital consultants contract that will make them among the highest paid public consultants on the planet and at a time when they were telling the rest of us that the state must manage its expenses for the benefit of “all” taxpayers.

“The new €250,000 public-only role would involve one of the highest-paid consultant contracts in the OECD, unmatched outside the richest and most developed countries.”

Link here: https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/new-public-only-hospital-contract-on-the-way-39572135.html

There is plenty left to tax if you look at MNC's and vulture funds. They're being let away with murder and this has been a concise decision from the Gov to do so. The Government is at a point where they're either going to kick the normal person while they're down or else make the decision to tax the MNC's and vulture funds fairly. Will be interesting to see what route they take here.

The Civil and Public service got nailed in the last crash and still aren't back to where they were in 07. Would be very unfair to nail them again when there is plenty other options

Mad_maxx

thefridge2006 wrote: »

There is plenty left to tax if you look at MNC's and vulture funds. They're being let away with murder and this has been a concise decision from the Gov to do so. The Government is at a point where they're either going to kick the normal person while they're down or else make the decision to tax the MNC's and vulture funds fairly. Will be interesting to see what route they take here.

The Civil and Public service got nailed in the last crash and still aren't back to where they were in 07. Would be very unfair to nail them again when there is plenty other options

the State Sectors terms and conditions were only allowed to balloon due to construction sector largesse

those conditions were unsustainable and should not be used as a reference point

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

That’s true. They’re trying to lock in yesterday’s perceived “market rents” before it’s too late and before the real market rents become general knowledge.

Once the true current market rents become general knowledge they will be late, hence their current rush to lock them in now IMO.

Where is there any suggestion of a 'rush'?

It's a market, for developers to sell into. They're selling into it. Why wouldn't they?

Limpy

A lot of big houses primarily used for room renting are on the market. Many hospitality jobs were worked by Eastern Europeans who would decide its time to head home, they would fill they houses in Normal times. Europeans based here with good jobs are buying semi d's, but a large % who were in the affected area are gone home.

poker--addict

There isn’t “a lot” of anything on the market right now.

Is there any data which looks at quality as opposed to quantity? I don’t recall a worse selection before.

Outside of new builds the market seems split into garbage that needs to be knocked or houses which owners perhaps have a “need” to sell (as opposed to simply upgrade activity)

Pelezico

<MOD SNIP>

poker--addict

<MOD SNIP>

Pelezico

<MOD SNIP>

Graham

as per previous

Mod Note

please continue the discussion of civil service/public sector salaries in the relevant forum.

poker--addict

I didn’t mention public or private employees!

PropQueries

poker--addict wrote: »

There isn’t “a lot” of anything on the market right now.

Is there any data which looks at quality as opposed to quantity? I don’t recall a worse selection before.

Outside of new builds the market seems split into garbage that needs to be knocked or houses which owners perhaps have a “need” to sell (as opposed to simply upgrade activity)

According to the latest MyHome property report 2020 Q3:

“New listings for sale on MyHome have returned close to 2019 levels through July to September”

Link to MyHome report here: https://media.myhome.ie/content/propertyreport/2020/q32020/MyHomePropertyReportQ3-2020.pdf

And we’re still expected to build c. 20,000 new homes this year.

Link to Irish times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-completions-to-reach-20-000-but-analysts-warn-of-future-impact-1.4400965

Both these recent reports appear to contradict the narrative that nobody is putting properties up for sale and that construction of new built units has dropped significantly. For perspective, we built c. 21,000 last year.

If transactions are down, it must then be due to too high asking prices. Therefore, wouldn’t that suggest that prices have to drop to clear the supply overhang?

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the latest MyHome property report 2020 Q3:

“New listings for sale on MyHome have returned close to 2019 levels through July to September”

Link to MyHome report here: https://media.myhome.ie/content/propertyreport/2020/q32020/MyHomePropertyReportQ3-2020.pdf

And we’re still expected to build c. 20,000 new homes this year.

Link to Irish times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-completions-to-reach-20-000-but-analysts-warn-of-future-impact-1.4400965

Both these recent reports appear to contradict the narrative that nobody is putting properties up for sale and that construction of new built units has dropped significantly. For perspective, we built c. 21,000 last year.

If transactions are down, it must then be due to too high asking prices. Therefore, wouldn’t that suggest that prices have to drop to clear the supply overhang?

Remember aliens populating Ireland will increase demand for housing, driving prices up. Irish climate is comparable to their own planet. Fact. Also house prices increased in 2006 so it’s logical to assume they will increase in 2021. Fact.

Also link to irrelevant article showing house prices are generally increasing
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/what-sold-for-450k-in-donabate-d12-kinsale-and-co-wicklow-1.4371824?mode=amp

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

not too many sold for under 100k in Dublin 7 that are over 300 k today , vast majority in D7 that dipped under 100k were apartments and those would still not be over 300 k today , two bed terraced houses in stoneybatter that needed work dipped as low as 140 k ( turn key no lower than 185 k around oxmantown road ) , those would be across 300 k today alright , D8 is a different story

2 beds in Cabra.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

If transactions are down, it must then be due to too high asking prices.

Supposition as fact?

You can't think of any other reasons why transactions may be down?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Supposition as fact?

You can't think of any other reasons why transactions may be down?

Well, the supply of both second-hand homes and new builds are back to near 2019 levels.

So the reduction in transactions is not due to a lack of supply, so it must be due to the demand side.

Covid hasn’t stopped viewings and the narrative has been that renters are doing everything they can to buy a home due to been locked up due to Covid.

Only reason left for the reduction in transactions, given that supply hasn’t really fallen, is lack of demand IMO.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Only reason left for the reduction in transactions, given that supply hasn’t really fallen, is lack of demand IMO.

I think the problem you're having is you approach every single piece of information and every article from the direction of "how does this support the theory the property market is crashing".

It is to market analysis what "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" is to woodwork.

TheSheriff

Graham wrote: »

I think the problem you're having is you approach every single piece of information and every article from the direction of "how does this support the theory the property market is crashing".

It is to market analysis what "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" is to woodwork.

This is the most accurate analysis of anything on this thread.

almostover

poker--addict wrote: »

There isn’t “a lot” of anything on the market right now.

Is there any data which looks at quality as opposed to quantity? I don’t recall a worse selection before.

Outside of new builds the market seems split into garbage that needs to be knocked or houses which owners perhaps have a “need” to sell (as opposed to simply upgrade activity)

As a prospective first time buyer in the anywhere <30mins commute from Cork city area I'd have to 100% agree. Have been on the lookout for the last 12 months for a property with my partner. Our ideal property is a 3-4 bed, 2 bath detached house that needs redecorating. Would love room for a small workshop too. However, anything that fits that bill is 350k+. We have €40k saved and mortgage approval in principle for €300k. Could get more but don't want to be having to work at 65 to pay a mortgage. Any of the second hand homes we've seen in our budget are in very poor condition, redecorating is one thing but we have mostly come across money pits. Viewed a small 4 bed bungalow lying on 1/3 of an acre on Friday in a lovely location, 20mins west of the city. Asking €320k. Very very dated with a poor interior layout. Well kept but needing a lot of money to work for modern living. Had my coveted garage however! Offer of €280k in. House was frigid cold. Would need €100k to modernise and extend.

There's a new estate about 5 mins from that house that we're viewing tomorrow. €300k for a 4 bed semi-d in a village with shops, pubs, schools etc. 25mins from the city. A3 rated and we would buy it for €270k with the first time buyers grant. I've rented in semi d's and terraced houses since I was 18. As a country boy though I'm grappling with the idea of owning one. Always had the bungalow on 1/2 of acre in my mind. Similar to what I grew up in. The head however can't see the financial sense in that. Being from a country upbringing where people stay in the one house for life the idea of a starter home and trading up to a long term goal is alien to me too. Think I need to move past that though.

Any advice for a young couple grappling between a head and heart decision?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I think the problem you're having is you approach every single piece of information and every article from the direction of "how does this support the theory the property market is crashing".

It is to market analysis what "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" is to woodwork.

I don’t write the articles or the research reports so I can hardly be held responsible if they mostly support my viewpoint and not yours IMO

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t write the articles or the research reports so I can hardly be held responsible if they mostly agree with my viewpoint and not yours IMO

You can be held responsible for wildly misinterpreting them.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t write the articles or the research reports so I can hardly be held responsible if they mostly support my viewpoint and not yours IMO

That's exactly the issue.

Even when they don't support your viewpoint, you really try awfully hard to make them.

omicron

almostover wrote: »

There's a new estate about 5 mins from that house that we're viewing tomorrow. €300k for a 4 bed semi-d in a village with shops, pubs, schools etc. 25mins from the city. A3 rated and we would buy it for €270k with the first time buyers grant. I've rented in semi d's and terraced houses since I was 18. As a country boy though I'm grappling with the idea of owning one. Always had the bungalow on 1/2 of acre in my mind. Similar to what I grew up in. The head however can't see the financial sense in that. Being from a country upbringing where people stay in the one house for life the idea of a starter home and trading up to a long term goal is alien to me too. Think I need to move past that though.

Any advice for a young couple grappling between a head and heart decision?

I had the same decision, grew up in the country but can't afford it now.

In the end decided to go with buying the semi d in town, because if I don't, I'll just be renting a similar property for a lot more money for the 5 or more years it'll take to save towards the house in the country.

If I feel the same way in 5-10 years I'll probably move then assuming the market allows.

mcsean2163

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t write the articles or the research reports so I can hardly be held responsible if they mostly support my viewpoint and not yours IMO

Well, I for one am very much inclined to agree with you. I expect there has been a considerable exodus and also air b&b business destruction. I imagine a lot of landlords are paying mortgages without tenants which is not sustainable long term.

We may still escape with a vaccine etc. but we're now threading a fine line.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t write the articles or the research reports so I can hardly be held responsible if they mostly support my viewpoint and not yours IMO

There’s the problem. They don’t support your viewpoint. You try to make out they do by distorting facts and telling lies.
Property prices will fall but there is no need to lie to back up your “viewpoint”.

almostover

omicron wrote: »

I had the same decision, grew up in the country but can't afford it now.

In the end decided to go with buying the semi d in town, because if I don't, I'll just be renting a similar property for a lot more money for the 5 or more years it'll take to save towards the house in the country.

If I feel the same way in 5-10 years I'll probably move then assuming the market allows.

Thanks for your input, helps a lot. That is very true, were currently renting a brand new built terraced 3 bed house for €1600 a month with a friend. We'd have a larger version of the same thing for €1000 a month mortgage, with insurnace costs considered that would be approx the same we pay per month in rent. Could always trade up in 10 years to what our long term goal is. The €30k first time buyers is free money. If we sold the house for €270k in 10 years time we'd have had the house for the cost of the interest on the mortgage. And that assuming a 10% drop in property value.

Marius34

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Well, I for one am very much inclined to agree with you. I expect there has been a considerable exodus and also air b&b business destruction. I imagine a lot of landlords are paying mortgages without tenants which is not sustainable long term.

We may still escape with a vaccine etc. but we're now threading a fine line.

So you agree supplies for properties advertised on myhome didn't fall? Demands did fall?
Then you are welcome to explain, how Number of properties on myhome fell from 21,5K to 15,6K in a year?

Melanchthon

almostover wrote: »

Thanks for your input, helps a lot. That is very true, were currently renting a brand new built terraced 3 bed house for €1600 a month with a friend. We'd have a larger version of the same thing for €1000 a month mortgage, with insurnace costs considered that would be approx the same we pay per month in rent. Could always trade up in 10 years to what our long term goal is. The €30k first time buyers is free money. If we sold the house for €270k in 10 years time we'd have had the house for the cost of the interest on the mortgage. And that assuming a 10% drop in property value.

I presume this isn't in Dublin? If it is in Dublin where are you seeing decent three beds new builds for under 300k?

Pelezico

Keep up the good work PropQueries. I do think there is no shortage of property out there, lots of it unoccupied or under utilised like former AirBnB property stock.

almostover

Melanchthon wrote: »

I presume this isn't in Dublin? If it is in Dublin where are you seeing decent three beds new builds for under 300k?

Cork boi! De real capital where we have 2 stouts better than Guinness