Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

Keep up the good work PropQueries. I do think there is no shortage of property out there, lots of it unoccupied or under utilised like former AirBnB property stock.

I thought the daft reports showed a lot of that went into the rental market or central Dublin during q2? There was a big increase in the availability of apartments and some of the “experts” on here said it was Airbnb?

PropQueries

Interesting shovel ready site for sale in the docklands with FPP for 9 apartments and asking €800k.

So that’s less than €90k per apartment site.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/commercial/brochure/church-road-abercorn-road-east-wall-dublin-3/4467724

mcsean2163

Marius34 wrote: »

So you agree supplies for properties advertised on myhome didn't fall? Demands did fall?
Then you are welcome to explain, how Number of properties on myhome fell from 21,5K to 15,6K in a year?

On October 1st it was 17,700, which was a 14 year low.

I just checked now:

20,090 Properties for Sale in Ireland

That's a pretty significant increase.

As I say, with the new vaccine we may escape but right now I doubt many developers are looking to but to develop. I'm in Dublin 8. Huge new development at islandbridge completely unoccupied. That appears as maybe three properties, not 300, etc.

We're thinking of buying now, we'll probably lose a lot but looking for family home... If you really think mass unemployment, huge state borrowing and a total collapse in tourism will not affect housing availability, ok then.....

Mic 1972

mcsean2163 wrote: »

On October 1st it was 17,700, which was a 14 year low.

I just checked now:

20,090 Properties for Sale in Ireland

That's a pretty significant increase.

As I say, with the new vaccine we may escape but right now I doubt many developers are looking to but to develop. I'm in Dublin 8. Huge new development at islandbridge completely unoccupied. That appears as maybe three properties, not 300, etc.

We're thinking of buying now, we'll probably lose a lot but looking for family home... If you really think mass unemployment, huge state borrowing and a total collapse in tourism will not affect housing availability, ok then.....

Tourism is going to come back, Covid is not a permanent condition
LLs who work in the accommodation business like Airbnb are holding on to their properties because they know it's only a matter of time before business comes back again.

I'm trying to buy now too, prices aren't going to fall. They haven't done so in 2020 against all the odds, they won't fall in 2021

mcsean2163

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Tourism is going to come back, Covid is not a permanent condition
LLs who work in the accommodation business like Airbnb are holding on to their properties because they know it's only a matter of time before business comes back again.

I'm trying to buy now too, prices aren't going to fall. They haven't done so in 2020 against all the odds, they won't fall in 2021

Here's islandbridge

https://touch.daft.ie/for-rent/clancy-quay-by-kennedy-wilson-south-circular-road-dublin-8-co-dublin/2511232

246 apartments for rent and two advertisements. Another place like that near Harold's cross etc.

I think when the pup tap is turned off the s&#t may hit the fan.

Mic 1972

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Here's islandbridge

https://touch.daft.ie/for-rent/clancy-quay-by-kennedy-wilson-south-circular-road-dublin-8-co-dublin/2511232

246 apartments for rent and two advertisements. Another place like that near Harold's cross etc.

I think when the pup tap is turned off the s&#t may hit the fan.

They could sell now and make a huge profit with the current prices. Instead they are renting, obviously they know that rental market is coming back

Pelezico

mcsean2163 wrote: »

On October 1st it was 17,700, which was a 14 year low.

I just checked now:

20,090 Properties for Sale in Ireland

That's a pretty significant increase.

As I say, with the new vaccine we may escape but right now I doubt many developers are looking to but to develop. I'm in Dublin 8. Huge new development at islandbridge completely unoccupied. That appears as maybe three properties, not 300, etc.

We're thinking of buying now, we'll probably lose a lot but looking for family home... If you really think mass unemployment, huge state borrowing and a total collapse in tourism will not affect housing availability, ok then.....

I see 15.5k properties on myhome for sale. Where are you getting your 20k from?

Ok...I see you are tracking daft properties. Numbers for sale on myhome have fallen heavily from 19k to 15.5k this year

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting shovel ready site for sale in the docklands with FPP for 9 apartments and asking €800k.

So that’s less than €90k per apartment site.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/commercial/brochure/church-road-abercorn-road-east-wall-dublin-3/4467724

What’s interesting about it to you ?

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

What’s interesting about it to you ?

Well the square root of 800 is twenty multiplied by the square root of two. And the square root of 90 is three multiplied by square root of ten. Now that is interesting to me.

Apart from.that I reckon he thinks the site cost of less than 90k per apartment is low and suggests falls.

In fact, I have just recognised that 800000 divided by nine contains a repeating decimal. Wow

Marius34

mcsean2163 wrote: »

On October 1st it was 17,700, which was a 14 year low.

I just checked now:

20,090 Properties for Sale in Ireland

That's a pretty significant increase.

As I say, with the new vaccine we may escape but right now I doubt many developers are looking to but to develop. I'm in Dublin 8. Huge new development at islandbridge completely unoccupied. That appears as maybe three properties, not 300, etc.

We're thinking of buying now, we'll probably lose a lot but looking for family home... If you really think mass unemployment, huge state borrowing and a total collapse in tourism will not affect housing availability, ok then.....

You mixing up daft with myhome. It's clearly 16k on myhome, which is another fall from 17.7K lows. I can't get how this means to you that supplies are stable and demands decreased.

Pelezico

Marius34 wrote: »

You mixing up daft with myhome. It's clearly 16k on myhome, which is another fall from 17.7K lows. I can't get how this means to you that supplies are stable and demands decreased.

Numbers on the market have fallen...and fallen lots.

What I find remarkable is the 7.5I sale agreeds on myhome, almost half the number still for sale.

The number of sale agreeds has rocketed in the last six months. Are these being sold? Dont know.

mcsean2163

Marius34 wrote: »

You mixing up daft with myhome. It's clearly 16k on myhome, which is another fall from 17.7K lows. I can't get how this means to you that supplies are stable and demands decreased.

The report didn't state myhome or daft, just the available supply.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-supply-at-its-lowest-in-14-years-as-prices-rise-by-5pc-despite-pandemic-39639539.html

Are you and others in building/ auctioneer trade? I'm just a private individual on the market looking to buy and also sell! It seems crazy to deny the earthquake that has happened in property due to covid19. If I was a landlord with 3 properties all unrented and house prices as are I'd definitely be thinking risk mitigation. Anyway, we've gone with the asking price but are being long fingered, go figure... Maybe they were hoping to start a bidding war etc.

Pelezico

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The report didn't state myhome or daft, just the available supply.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-supply-at-its-lowest-in-14-years-as-prices-rise-by-5pc-despite-pandemic-39639539.html

Are you and others in building/ auctioneer trade? I'm just a private individual on the market looking to buy and also sell! It seems crazy to deny the earthquake that has happened in property due to covid19. If I was a landlord with 3 properties all unrented and house prices as are I'd definitely be thinking risk mitigation. Anyway, we've gone with the asking price but are being long fingered, go figure... Maybe they were hoping to start a bidding war etc.

The numbers for sale have fallen heavily. Regardless of your position, this is a fact.

I have been amazed at the reduction in supply, even in my home town.

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

Numbers on the market have fallen...and fallen lots.

What I find remarkable is the 7.5I sale agreeds on myhome, almost half the number still for sale.

The number of sale agreeds has rocketed in the last six months. Are these being sold? Dont know.

I believe most will be sold, some will go back on the market.
It started to increase after lockdown, from very low levels of May/June.

Timing belt

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The report didn't state myhome or daft, just the available supply.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-supply-at-its-lowest-in-14-years-as-prices-rise-by-5pc-despite-pandemic-39639539.html

Are you and others in building/ auctioneer trade? I'm just a private individual on the market looking to buy and also sell! It seems crazy to deny the earthquake that has happened in property due to covid19. If I was a landlord with 3 properties all unrented and house prices as are I'd definitely be thinking risk mitigation. Anyway, we've gone with the asking price but are being long fingered, go figure... Maybe they were hoping to start a bidding war etc.

Why would a landlord sell when he knows with a high degree of certainty that he will be able to rent it out. If he was to sell there is hardly any other investment that will give a return like that. If he puts the money in the bank he will be charged negative rates. Unless the supply of housing stock is addressed it is one of the safest assets giving such a return and people need to live somewhere.

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Where is there any suggestion of a 'rush'?

Graham wrote:

It's a market, for developers to sell into. They're selling into it. Why wouldn't they?

Is social and affordable the first market a developer sells into?
If your selling an apartment to the public for close to half a mill, I'm sure you would want to make sure they are roped in before you start selling for social/affordable

It does appear that developers and government are back in bed together doing all that they can to prop up prices

They have taxpayers, market renters and buyers well and truly over a barrel.

Marius34

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The report didn't state myhome or daft, just the available supply.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/housing-supply-at-its-lowest-in-14-years-as-prices-rise-by-5pc-despite-pandemic-39639539.html

Are you and others in building/ auctioneer trade? I'm just a private individual on the market looking to buy and also sell! It seems crazy to deny the earthquake that has happened in property due to covid19. If I was a landlord with 3 properties all unrented and house prices as are I'd definitely be thinking risk mitigation. Anyway, we've gone with the asking price but are being long fingered, go figure... Maybe they were hoping to start a bidding war etc.

I'm not in construction or anything. Residential Property is pure hobby for my last 17 years.
I don't know what those reports mean, and what properties they take into account. But you not comparing likes with likes.
Myhome had 17.5k Properties at the end of September. Now it's below 16K.

Pelezico

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm not in construction or anything. Residential Property is pure hobby for my last 17 years.
I don't know what those reports mean, and what properties they take into account. But you not comparing likes with likes.
Myhome had 17.5k Properties at the end of September. Now it's below 16K.

Nobody who is buying or selling a house can dispute the fact that numbers for sale have fallen quite dramatically this year.

I wonder where this will end. Will numbers reduce below 10000? Maybe not that low.

Bass Reeves

Timing belt wrote: »

Why would a landlord sell when he knows with a high degree of certainty that he will be able to rent it out. If he was to sell there is hardly any other investment that will give a return like that. If he puts the money in the bank he will be charged negative rates. Unless the supply of housing stock is addressed it is one of the safest assets giving such a return and people need to live somewhere.

And he will pay 33%tax on any capital gain unless they were bought during the tax incentives period after the banking collapse. Even then you have to find an investment that will out preform property

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is social and affordable the first market a developer sells into?
If your selling an apartment to the public for close to half a mill, I'm sure you would want to make sure they are roped in before you start selling for social/affordable

It does appear that developers and government are back in bed together doing all that they can to prop up prices

They have taxpayers, market renters and buyers well and truly over a barrel.

I think if you have a chance to sell all at once it is more attractive than selling over much longer period? How long does it take for a development to sell out - 3-18 months depending on number of units or price?
For the developer it delivers liquidity quickly meaning they can move to next project/take profit.
Or maybe it is a conspiracy

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

Nobody who is buying or selling a house can dispute the fact that numbers for sale have fallen quite dramatically this year.

I wonder where this will end. Will numbers reduce below 10000? Maybe not that low.

The lowest point it reaching typically in January.
I don't think we will see it going below 10K.

Pelezico

Marius34 wrote: »

The lowest point it reaching typically in January.
I don't think we will see it going below 10K.

There is litle cost for holding property....so people wont sell. We will have sellers strike...actually we are having one now.

I was out walking yesterday and stopped for coffee at the outdoor coffee shop.I overheard a middleaged man saying he had stopped paying his mortgage six.months ago.

We have a payment strike too , at least in part. I assume some renters are not paying rent either.

Where will it end?

Mic 1972

Pelezico wrote: »

Numbers on the market have fallen...and fallen lots.

it means that people are still buying a lot, hence prices are still increasing

Pelezico

Mic 1972 wrote: »

it means that people are still buying a lot, hence prices are still increasing

But numbers sold have also fallencery significantly so this is not true. Anyone know how many were sold in September vs September 2019?

I cant access PPR like before.

cubatahavana

Pelezico wrote: »

But numbers sold have also fallencery significantly so this is not true. Anyone know how many were sold in September vs September 2019?

I cant access PPR like before.

Are you banned?

cubatahavana

Quick screenshot. Sales way below other years it seems

Pelezico

cubatahavana wrote: »

Are you banned?

No biased moderators on PPR thankfully.

No...the PPR doesn't seem to give monthly numbers as easily as before and I cant download the full database.

Pelezico

cubatahavana wrote: »

Quick screenshot. Sales way below other years it seems

That is an interesting series there. Sales numbers have fallen quite heavily.

I cannot understand the sheer number of sale agreeds on myhome. It has more than doubled this year.

Much more dramatic the decline in numbers for sale is the increase in sale agreeds.

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

There is litle cost for holding property....so people wont sell. We will have sellers strike...actually we are having one now.

I was out walking yesterday and stopped for coffee at the outdoor coffee shop.I overheard a middleaged man saying he had stopped paying his mortgage six.months ago.

We have a payment strike too , at least in part. I assume some renters are not paying rent either.

Where will it end?

There are millions of different opinions, and what people say. I'll stick with a data, and official reports.
Where we will end? I'll say not to far from where we are now, and least for coming few years.

mcsean2163

Timing belt wrote: »

Why would a landlord sell when he knows with a high degree of certainty that he will be able to rent it out. If he was to sell there is hardly any other investment that will give a return like that. If he puts the money in the bank he will be charged negative rates. Unless the supply of housing stock is addressed it is one of the safest assets giving such a return and people need to live somewhere.

With covid19 the only certainty is uncertainty. I remember well being in a squat on the quays in the nineties. I'm sure it wasn't built to be a squat.

Am I missing something? From daft, supply seems to have increased significantly since Q3?