Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

mcsean2163

cubatahavana wrote: »

Quick screenshot. Sales way below other years it seems

Hard to figure out 2020, any chance of more granularity?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I think if you have a chance to sell all at once it is more attractive than selling over much longer period? How long does it take for a development to sell out - 3-18 months depending on number of units or price? For the developer it delivers liquidity quickly meaning they can move to next project/take profit. Or maybe it is a conspiracy

The state has access to finance at 0%, have their own land to build on and know that building on the commercial side will come under downward pressure freeing up labour.
why would they be entering into multiple long term leases at market price. That price offered for 1 unit could deliver 3 units were they to build there own

There can only be one reason why a gov would pursue current policy and that is to prop up prices

Graham

Villa05 wrote: »

There can only be one reason why a gov would pursue current policy and that is to prop up prices

Or to keep the cost of property off the books.

Timing belt

Graham wrote: »

Or to keep the cost of property off the books.

That argument is gone now that they have all the additional covid debt on the books. If they don’t do something substantial to address housing now then I think FG/FF may as well go out and start canvassing for SF.

Graham

Timing belt wrote: »

That argument is gone now that they have all the additional covid debt on the books.

I don't think it has.

'We've already borrowed billions so what's a few billion more' is unlikely to wash.

Don't get me wrong, I don't necessarily agree with it. I'd like to see more government spending to mitigate the effects of coronavirus across the economy.

Timing belt

Graham wrote: »

I don't think it has.

'We've already borrowed billions so what's a few billion more' is unlikely to wash.

Don't get me wrong, I don't necessarily agree with it. I'd like to see more government spending to mitigate the effects of coronavirus across the economy.

The debt that the governments are taking on is meant to be used to stimulate the economy so if the government used it to help solve housing they would be stimulating the economy at the same time. There will be another round of QE in January so they have the opportunity and mandate from Europe if they really wanted to resolve the issue.

They don’t even need to build just provide a floor by agreeing to buy any houses not sold in a new development thereby giving the developer the certainty to enable them to build. The tax take on the new property and the negative rates would have a break even point of around 6/7 years. Not to mention what they would save on HAP

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/bt-sets-up-irish-procurement-business-with-14-5bn-budget-1.4407704%3fmode=amp

Positive for Ireland. Highly skilled jobs with people relocating here as well as more employment opportunities. Eaton, Verizon and others have done similar over last few years. Procurement CoEs are very positive for the economy. Nice to have some positive news amid this sh*t show.

Sorry if its already been posted but the opposite side of the coin
Even with life support some cannot survive through covid


https://www.independent.ie/business/jobs/potential-job-loss-figure-doubles-in-less-than-a-year-39745158.html

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

This is as plausible and opinion as some of the others proposed on this thread over the last few days. I think property prices will increase because contact will be made with alien life and these aliens will move to Ireland. They will need somewhere to live and will have loads of cash.
That’s just my opinion though. My opinion is back up by the fact that there are definitely UFOs out there. When we see them in the sky they are actually viewing properties.

If you meet one tell them I have a bridge to sell in the Centre of Dublin city:D:D

brisan

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The area we're looking is Kildare. It's hard to know, we put the offer in last Monday and were told the seller has been notified but that there's a lot of others doing second viewings this week, etc.

I would have thought time of year etc would be in our favour, might be best to pull the offer and let it go back to the lower one which was 30k less. I guess they're holding out for the best offer etc. whereas we're on a tight schedule. Then again maybe increasing 10k might be worth it if we closed fast. It's a tough one surprised by the level of interest the auctioneer is reporting...

Reporting does not mean its happening
He thinks you are on the hook and is trying to reel you in

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

They’re not being sold at current market values as many are not being sold at all IMO

There was one poster recently who put up an example of an 80 unit development in Malahide that was completed last year and only 4 sales were recorded on the PPR as of this month.

They are all 700k-850k plus houses.
Not exactly your average house

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

The state has access to finance at 0%, have their own land to build on and know that building on the commercial side will come under downward pressure freeing up labour.
why would they be entering into multiple long term leases at market price. That price offered for 1 unit could deliver 3 units were they to build there own

There can only be one reason why a gov would pursue current policy and that is to prop up prices

Because they have shown no ability to deliver properties at a reasonable cost all of the above notwithstanding and taking leases on already built property is quicker .

Wanderer78

Cyrus wrote:

Because they have shown no ability to deliver properties at a reasonable cost all of the above notwithstanding and taking leases on already built property is quicker .

....and the market does this by increasing the price of land and property by increasing the availability of credit to the market.....

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting shovel ready site for sale in the docklands with FPP for 9 apartments and asking €800k.

So that’s less than €90k per apartment site.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/commercial/brochure/church-road-abercorn-road-east-wall-dublin-3/4467724

Not sure apartments especially 1 bed apartments in DCC are hot properties at the minute

beauf

Timing belt wrote: »

That argument is gone now that they have all the additional covid debt on the books. If they don’t do something substantial to address housing now then I think FG/FF may as well go out and start canvassing for SF.

They've managed do to nothing on housing for many decades. Through the Celtic Tiger and the crash that followed. Has the pandemic has stalled SF momentum. Remains to be seen. It certainly has stalled delivery of state housing.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The state has access to finance at 0%, have their own land to build on and know that building on the commercial side will come under downward pressure freeing up labour.
why would they be entering into multiple long term leases at market price. That price offered for 1 unit could deliver 3 units were they to build there own

There can only be one reason why a gov would pursue current policy and that is to prop up prices

They don’t have the expertise or resources to build themselves. It sounds great but would result in cost over runs and seats running into years. To suggest otherwise is naive.

Polkadotpjs

PropQueries wrote: »

They’re not being sold at current market values as many are not being sold at all IMO

There was one poster recently who put up an example of an 80 unit development in Malahide that was completed last year and only 4 sales were recorded on the PPR as of this month.

Fact check here - that estate is currently only being built and only a few houses are complete as at right now. Can’t see how you’d expect them to be on the PPR unless people can snag and move into a plot of land.... have to agree with Graham, you’re talking nonsense.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

They don’t have the expertise or resources to build themselves. It sounds great but would result in cost over runs and seats running into years. To suggest otherwise is naive.

When we had nothing we set up a successful power generating company, gas supply network, telecoms industry, peat harvesting and power generation amongst others

I get your point regarding county councils. I honestly don't know what purpose they serve anymore. If they stopped working would we notice any difference

I disagree with the argument that we are incapable of building a few houses. The will not the ability is the problem

IAmTheReign

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the supply of both second-hand homes and new builds are back to near 2019 levels.

So the reduction in transactions is not due to a lack of supply, so it must be due to the demand side.

Covid hasn’t stopped viewings and the narrative has been that renters are doing everything they can to buy a home due to been locked up due to Covid.

Only reason left for the reduction in transactions, given that supply hasn’t really fallen, is lack of demand IMO.

The supply of houses on the market are NOT back at near 2019 levels. You'd know this if you actually read the myhome report you linked. The number of newly listed properties from July to September are close to 2019 levels. the total number of properties on the market is still well down on 2019.

New listings for sale on MyHome have returned close to 2019 levels through July to September, a welcome sign of confidence in the market from vendors. However, this hasn’t made up for the enormous shortfall in new listings for sale through April and May.

Hence, the stock of residential properties listed for sale on the MyHome website in September was 17,800 - still down 25% on 2019 levels. There were 4,600 properties listed in Dublin, again down sharply - by 19% on the year. Similarly, housing completions in Q2 2020 were 3,290, down 32% on the year. Clearly, the impact of COVID-19 has been to reduce housing supply within the market.

Not only that the report says that despite the drop in available properties that by their metrics demand has remained strong, the exact opposite of what you claim.

In contrast, demand from homebuyers appears robust. The data show that PUP claimants have been focused on sectors such as construction, hospitality and retail where homeownership levels tend to be low. The negative impact of COVID-19 on the labour market has therefore had a limited effect on demand. Figure 4 illustrates that traffic on the MyHome website from prospective homebuyers through Q3 was up 40-60% on 2019 depending on which measure is used.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

When we had nothing we set up a successful power generating company, gas supply network, telecoms industry, peat harvesting and power generation amongst others

I get your point regarding county councils. I honestly don't know what purpose they serve anymore. If they stopped working would we notice any difference

I disagree with the argument that we are incapable of building a few houses. The will not the ability is the problem

I agree with you but how many years would it take public servants to set this up? Inevitably they would make a balls of by entrusting public servants to deliver this new body. It should be done but they can’t sit by and do nothing for the next few years. That means turning to the private sector...

JimmyVik

beauf wrote: »

They've managed do to nothing on housing for many decades. Through the Celtic Tiger and the crash that followed. Has the pandemic has stalled SF momentum. Remains to be seen. It certainly has stalled delivery of state housing.

As someone said in another thead. If the Ireland was to somehow manage to solve the housing crisis where no other country has, then ....


Ah, never mind. Who am i kidding. Its Ireland. Noone else has solved it, we wont.

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

When we had nothing we set up a successful power generating company, gas supply network, telecoms industry, peat harvesting and power generation amongst others

I get your point regarding county councils. I honestly don't know what purpose they serve anymore. If they stopped working would we notice any difference

I disagree with the argument that we are incapable of building a few houses. The will not the ability is the problem

You are right we can build a FEW houses.

Roberto_gas

Market for new homes is on fire and probably highest ever ! 3 BHKs bought for 450k in ourskirts of dublin is just mind boggling !

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

I'm finding im not being outbid on houses but the sellers just aren't accepting the bids because it hasn't worked out like they had hoped

And another house its happening me on. On the market 2 months . I was the only one at the viewing and the only one who has made an offer.

PropQueries

According to the Irish Times today, airline workers are on the EBS (owned by AIB) blacklist for new mortgage approvals:

"I recently applied for a new mortgage with the EBS. I got my first mortgage with them 15 years ago and have not missed any payments.

It refused my application as I work for an airline and that’s high risk – even though we have not been subject to any reduction in pay.

I have already received a sale agreed on my house and paid a deposit on the new house. From my original meetings with the EBS, it gave me no indication that my mortgage application would be refused."

Link to Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/blacked-by-ebs-for-mortgage-because-i-work-for-an-airline-1.4410022

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

EHHHH What? It didnt go into shutdown? you mean i stayed indoors for weeks on end by mistake?????

More people were still working in 08 too....that worked out well also....:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I meant it in terms of employment activity which was being suggested by a different poster people continued to work and buy maybe not in the traditional way but it will be interesting to get a picture of online sale receipts over the last year

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

So you agree supplies for properties advertised on myhome didn't fall? Demands did fall?
Then you are welcome to explain, how Number of properties on myhome fell from 21,5K to 15,6K in a year?

Less than a year 21.5k was the figure in Jan this year so in 10/11 months

Cyrus

Yara Rich Camouflage wrote: »

Don't mention those peasants they were never in the market anyway

Would you lend to an airline worker at the moment ?

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

Would you lend to an airline worker at the moment ?

That was not the point he was making

Wanderer78

Cyrus wrote: »

Would you lend to an airline worker at the moment ?

so what should be done to facilitate these workers needs in regards housing?

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

They don’t have the expertise or resources to build themselves. It sounds great but would result in cost over runs and seats running into years. To suggest otherwise is naive.

According to RTE today: "A proposal for a developer to build 853 homes on public land is set to be voted down by Dublin city councillors"

Dublin City Council then stated that: "if this plan is voted down it will take around 5 years to draw up another one through the tendering process."

Link to RTE here: https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/1115/1178315-land-developer-council/

This level of proposed delay can't be due to a lack of expertise or resources. It doesn't take 5 years to do anything, anywhere on the planet if the will is truly there.