Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Wanderer78

Cyrus wrote: »

it is, same thing, you just dont like the way i say it.



whether thats no income or low income i dont see what the difference is between social and public housing.

once again, there actually is a difference between free and 'heavily subsidised', the only way to truly receive a free home is to never pay taxes or pay rent on these homes, which i suspect, is a very few citizens, very very few.

public housing is housing publicly owned, it encompasses a wide range of accommodation, from apartments, to houses, and everything in between. this is to accommodate those who do not have their accommodation needs met by other means, it also includes social housing.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

so where would you put all the people that cant house themselves?

its not palatable to let them live under a bridge, the state isnt building social houses, so they are going to the private sector.

what would you have them do?

Personally I would slap a monthly vacant property tax, based on their imaginary €3,000 a month rental income, on every apartment that they currently leave empty until they fully let them.

That would very quickly remove the extend and pretend game the developers/property investors are currently playing with their unsold and unrented units.

Cyrus

Wanderer78 wrote: »

once again, there actually is a difference between free and 'heavily subsidised', the only way to truly receive a free home is to never pay taxes or pay rent on these homes, which i suspect, is a very few citizens, very very few.

public housing is housing publicly owned, it encompasses a wide range of accommodation, from apartments, to houses, and everything in between. this is to accommodate those who do not have their accommodation needs met by other means, it also includes social housing.

you can split hairs all you want.

and public housing should be publicly owned and controlled but we either let the tenants buy the houses cheaply or we dont properly allocate the properties according to peoples needs,

the state doesnt have a great track record in this regard.

Wanderer78

Cyrus wrote: »

you can split hairs all you want.

and public housing should be publicly owned and controlled but we either let the tenants buy the houses cheaply or we dont properly allocate the properties according to peoples needs,

the state doesnt have a great track record in this regard.

sometimes its important to split hairs, to get to the nub of things, our housing issues are complex, we re obviously failing dramatically here. the move towards privatisation of housing has failed, and we ve decided the best thing to do is, nothing! many people can no longer afford to buy houses, the global move towards raising property and land prices has failed, the wealth didnt trickle down, it actually trickled up! this in fact is leading to radical voting and election outcomes, including here in ireland. public housing is the only game left in town now, otherwise, we re stuck!

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

you can split hairs all you want.

and public housing should be publicly owned and controlled but we either let the tenants buy the houses cheaply or we dont properly allocate the properties according to peoples needs,

the state doesnt have a great track record in this regard.

I actually agree with your solution on that one. Except for the term 'cheaply'.

Remove all state imposed costs from the price of a new build and most people would be able to easily afford the c. €150k it would cost to buy a standard 3-bed a-rated new built house in Dublin. And that €150k would easily include a reasonable profit margin for the developers.

The state wouldn't need to do much. Slap a proper vacant site tax to force landowners to build and then slap a proper vacant property tax on all completed units until they either rent or sell them.

It wouldn't stop building as developers would then be buying the land knowing upfront their obligations and that they will be penalised if they don't build or rent them quickly.

Landowners will very quickly find and link up with developers who would be willing to take the risk in such a scenario IMO.

combat14

whats the chances that house prices will absolutely soar next year now that vaccince has been found

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

sometimes its important to split hairs, to get to the nub of things, our housing issues are complex, we re obviously failing dramatically here. the move towards privatisation of housing has failed, and we ve decided the best thing to do is, nothing! many people can no longer afford to buy houses, the global move towards raising property and land prices has failed, the wealth didnt trickle down, it actually trickled up! this in fact is leading to radical voting and election outcomes, including here in ireland. public housing is the only game left in town now, otherwise, we re stuck!

The problem is people want housing for feck all in an area that they want to live in and in a standard that they want. Why should any worker who is renting or paying a mortgage pay for another person to be better housed than they are. This is essentially what is happening in a lot of cases . You show a person a house in Lovely Leitrim from the housing waiting list and watch them turn their nose up. Its disgraceful there is a moral hazard now with regard to housing and some people I know have actual given up on a job due to the fact that they wouldnt get a "free gaff" (there words not mine)

Wanderer78

combat14 wrote: »

whats the chances that house prices will absolutely soar next year now that vaccince has been found

pretty good id say, there could very well be a large increase in the availability of credit into our economy, so win win for property and land

PropQueries

combat14 wrote: »

whats the chances that house prices will absolutely soar next year now that vaccince has been found

I wouldn't hold out much hope for a return to normal next year. Even if the vaccine is proven to work with no side effects etc., today the Government said that "Two million likely to miss out on first programme of Covid-19 vaccinations next year".

Link to Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/two-million-likely-to-miss-out-on-first-programme-of-covid-19-vaccinations-next-year-39751159.html

International students won't be coming back at their pre-covid numbers until at least the 2022/2023 academic year as they must decide on whether they're coming here for the 2021/2022 academic year very soon.

And in case everyone has forgotten, AirBnB is still newly banned so those properties shouldn't be impacting on the market in the way they were pre-covid. We're still building c. 20,000 houses this year and a similar number or more next year. Student accommodation is still being completed and those ever increasing executor sales continue to pile up, not due to Covid but due to natural life expectancy levels in Ireland.

Tourists aren't coming back next Summer at pre-covid levels either so next years tourism season is already gone, vaccine or no vaccine, so we won't require the same number of workers in the tourism sector until at least the Summer of 2022.

More supply with much less demand equals tough times ahead for the property sector IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I wouldn't hold out much hope for a return to normal next year. Even if the vaccine is proven to work with no side effects etc., today the Government said that "Two million likely to miss out on first programme of Covid-19 vaccinations next year".

Link to Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/two-million-likely-to-miss-out-on-first-programme-of-covid-19-vaccinations-next-year-39751159.html

International students won't be coming back at their pre-covid numbers until at least the 2022/2023 academic year as they must decide on whether they're coming here for the 2021/2022 academic year very soon.

And in case everyone has forgotten, AirBnB is still newly banned so those properties shouldn't be impacting on the market in the way they were pre-covid. We're still building c. 20,000 houses this year and a similar number or more next year. Student accommodation is still being completed and those ever increasing executor sales continue to pile up, not due to Covid but due to natural life expectancy levels in Ireland.

Tourists aren't coming back next Summer at pre-covid levels either so next years tourism season is already gone, vaccine or no vaccine, so we won't require the same number of workers in the tourism sector until at least the Summer of 2022.

More supply with much less demand equals tough times ahead for the property sector IMO

one would imagine the 3m getting it are the people at 'more' risk, once they are vaccinated we can get back to normal, for the majority it isnt a serious illness.

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

The problem is people want housing for feck all in an area that they want to live in and in a standard that they want. Why should any worker who is renting or paying a mortgage pay for another person to be better housed than they are. This is essentially what is happening in a lot of cases . You show a person a house in Lovely Leitrim from the housing waiting list and watch them turn their nose up. Its disgraceful there is a moral hazard now with regard to housing and some people I know have actual given up on a job due to the fact that they wouldnt get a "free gaff" (there words not mine)

the problem ultimately is, the financialisation of our housing markets is failing, unhinging the financial sector, particularly in relation to credit creation, has just increased the money supply to our markets, which in turn, has just ramped up property and land values

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I agree with you but how many years would it take public servants to set this up? Inevitably they would make a balls of by entrusting public servants to deliver this new body. It should be done but they can’t sit by and do nothing for the next few years. That means turning to the private sector...

I understand your point but don't accept it, The State industries mentioned were semi private and were detached from public service. Would be simple to do something similar again and give them the powers and resources to do the job.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

one would imagine the 3m getting it are the people at 'more' risk, once they are vaccinated we can get back to normal, for the majority it isnt a serious illness.

Not really. They still have to monitor the at risk group for at least 12 months as they have already admitted they don't know how long the vaccine works for e.g. does it work for 6 months, 9 months, 12 months?

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the problem ultimately is, the financialisation of our housing markets is failing, unhinging the financial sector, particularly in relation to credit creation, has just increased the money supply to our markets, which in turn, has just ramped up property and land values

Finance or none why should people who are forced to live in locations that they can afford pay for someone else to cherry pick where they want to live. This has been going on for years.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Finance or none why should people who are forced to live in locations that they can afford pay for someone else to cherry pick where they want to live. This has been going on for years.

There's less than 70,000 on the social housing waiting list in Ireland and the vast majority are actually working so wouldn't be able to live in Longford etc.

I think the media cherry pick stories of the very few people refusing housing due to location that the Department of Housing and local councils feed them in order to distract the general public from their mismanagement of the whole issue over not years but decades.

I'm sure you could cherry pick a few bad apples in your company and you would be highly insulted if we all then painted every employee at your company with the same brush.

Just to add, imagine they did all accept those houses offered to them. They’re obviously currently renting In the private market at the moment. All those properties would then re-enter the market for either rent or sale and the value of all our homes would then definitely plunge by 75% IMO.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I wouldn't hold out much hope for a return to normal next year. Even if the vaccine is proven to work with no side effects etc., today the Government said that "Two million likely to miss out on first programme of Covid-19 vaccinations next year".

Link to Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/two-million-likely-to-miss-out-on-first-programme-of-covid-19-vaccinations-next-year-39751159.html

International students won't be coming back at their pre-covid numbers until at least the 2022/2023 academic year as they must decide on whether they're coming here for the 2021/2022 academic year very soon.

And in case everyone has forgotten, AirBnB is still newly banned so those properties shouldn't be impacting on the market in the way they were pre-covid. We're still building c. 20,000 houses this year and a similar number or more next year. Student accommodation is still being completed and those ever increasing executor sales continue to pile up, not due to Covid but due to natural life expectancy levels in Ireland.

Tourists aren't coming back next Summer at pre-covid levels either so next years tourism season is already gone, vaccine or no vaccine, so we won't require the same number of workers in the tourism sector until at least the Summer of 2022.

More supply with much less demand equals tough times ahead for the property sector IMO

While I harbor doubts, this is not wholly impossible. In practice, using the initial vaccine supplies to ring-fence the vulerable is enough to open society up and return to normal. Travel might need to be restricted to those who are imuno positive or have had a vaccine.:

LONDON — Daily life may return to normal by next winter, according to one of the creators of the highly anticipated prospective coronavirus vaccine by Pfizer and BioNTech.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/coronavirus-biontech-ceo-says-life-could-return-to-normal-next-winter.html

There are effectively two property markets - apartments and houses. There may be sufficient appartments, but I don't think we are close to where house supply meets demand. Share markets are trending up so I don't see house prices trending down, quite the opposite.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Not really. They still have to monitor the at risk group for at least 12 months as they have already admitted they don't know how long the vaccine works for e.g. does it work for 6 months, 9 months, 12 months?

There won’t be any appetite for lock downs in that scenario

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

There's less than 70,000 on the social housing waiting list in Ireland and the vast majority are actually working so wouldn't be able to live in Longford etc.

I think the media cherry pick stories of the very few people refusing housing.

Source for the make up of the social housing list ?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Source for the make up of the social housing list ?

This is article from 2019 on the housing waiting lists in Ireland: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30969860.html

The insurmountable waiting list amounts to a less number of homes we built in 2006.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

I'll let the moderator explain

But for further context on the post, Gleanveagh are now selling a-rated three bed houses in the Greater Dublin region for less than the cost that the SCSI said it would cost to build them in 2016.

He wont tell me and I genuinely dont know.

On a separate note Glenveagh may be sucking in as much money as possible in anticipation in a slowdown next year.

The real pain will start next year as the tap is turned off all the assistance.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

There's less than 70,000 on the social housing waiting list in Ireland and the vast majority are actually working so wouldn't be able to live in Longford etc...

That isn't a small number, it's scarry. If you assume 3 people per dwelling, you are talking about 24,000 dwellings. If they could be provisioned at €250,000 apiece, that's €6 Billion needing to be bled from someone's vein.

That amounts to 6.74% of total government revenue collected in 2019. Imagine funding that from expenditure cuts, then Imagine increasing government taxation by that for one year to pay for it to happen in a short time frame.

There is only so-much construction capacity, so if you do a quick build for social housing getting anything else built would be difficult, so existing stock prices would increase substantially.

That waiting list needs to be seriously pruned, it's unaffordable.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

That isn't a small number, it's scarry. If you assume 3 people per dwelling, you are talking about 24,000 dwellings. If they could be provisioned at €250,000 apiece, that's €6 Billion needing to be bled from someone's vein.

That amounts to 6.74% of total government revenue collected in 2019. Imagine funding that from expenditure cuts, then Imagine increasing government taxation by that for one year to pay for it to happen in a short time frame.

There is only so-much construction capacity, so if you do a quick build for social housing getting anything else built would be difficult, so existing stock prices would increase substantially.

That waiting list needs to be seriously pruned, it's unaffordable.

I agree it needs to be seriously pruned and I think the 70,000 figure actually applies to households to make it seem worse.

But then again, we built c. 90,000 homes in 2006 so it’s not unsolvable by any stretch of the imagination with the right thinking and wherewithall IMO

But the figures needed to solve the housing waiting list pales into insignificance compared to the cost of our unfunded public sector pensions:

“The scheme has been building up significant liabilities for the State – around €114 billion by the end of 2015, equivalent to more than half the national debt.”

Link to Irish times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cliff-taylor-the-notion-of-pensions-parity-in-the-public-service-is-irresponsible-1.3872810

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

This is article from 2019 on the housing waiting lists in Ireland: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30969860.html

The insurmountable waiting list amounts to a less number of homes we built in 2006.

I can’t see from this that the majority are working ?

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I agree it needs to be seriously pruned and I think the 70,000 figure actually applies to households to make it seem worse.

But then again, we built c. 90,000 homes in 2006 so it’s not unsolvable by any stretch of the imagination with the right thinking and wherewithall IMO

But the figures needed to solve the housing waiting list pales into insignificance compared to the cost of our unfunded public sector pensions:

“The scheme has been building up significant liabilities for the State – around €114 billion by the end of 2015, equivalent to more than half the national debt.”

Link to Irish times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cliff-taylor-the-notion-of-pensions-parity-in-the-public-service-is-irresponsible-1.3872810

No, a large number of the people who built those houses in 2006 are no longer in the country; they left in droves, to re-build Christchurch and to work in les-dysfunctional property markets. I'm open to correction but I doubt we have that sort of capacity currently.

Roberto_gas

What are the chances that people who cannot emigrate due to job losses will move out after vaccine is found !

Roberto_gas

Roberto_gas wrote: »

What are the chances that people who cannot emigrate due to job losses will move out after vaccine is found !

17.29%

Pelezico

Deleted User wrote: »

17.29%

I think they are greater than zero and less than one hundred percent. Apart from.that, I just dont know.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

There's less than 70,000 on the social housing waiting list in Ireland and the vast majority are actually working so wouldn't be able to live in Longford etc.

I think the media cherry pick stories of the very few people refusing housing due to location that the Department of Housing and local councils feed them in order to distract the general public from their mismanagement of the whole issue over not years but decades.

I'm sure you could cherry pick a few bad apples in your company and you would be highly insulted if we all then painted every employee at your company with the same brush.

Just to add, imagine they did all accept those houses offered to them. They’re obviously currently renting In the private market at the moment. All those properties would then re-enter the market for either rent or sale and the value of all our homes would then definitely plunge by 75% IMO.

Cherry pick its rampant with the housing list people have been noted to turn down 3/4 properties its like I will turn this down as its not suitable for me as my mammy lives 20 minutes walk away cant be having that. Its a joke. People on here wanting to fix the housing/rental problem telling people to take it or go sort yourself out would be a good start. Too many people getting handed property in prime location and too many people having to commute in from the commuter belt to work to pay for it

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Tourists aren't coming back next Summer at pre-covid levels either so next years tourism season is already gone, vaccine or no vaccine, so we won't require the same number of workers in the tourism sector until at least the Summer of 2022.

More supply with much less demand equals tough times ahead for the property sector IMO

Tourism most likely is going to come back very strong, everybody wants to take a break and start traveling again. In a year time the covid scenario will be completely different.


As for more supply/less demand, i can see you are still pushing this narrative but things are clearly going in the opposite direction

Deub

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Tourism most likely is going to come back very strong, everybody wants to take a break and start traveling again. In a year time the covid scenario will be completely different

Very strong compare to this year? Very likely if the vaccine works and most of the people get it.
Very string compare to other years? Not so sure. Jobs have been lost and it takes time to have them back.