Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

awec

It's a crap time to be buying, coming up to Christmas the stock will surely dwindle as people don't want the hassle of selling at this time of year, and then you add the lockdown in to the mix too.

katiek102010

ShlugMurphy wrote: »

That's what I'm thinking.

But really for prices to drop significantly there needs to be a shock. A slow drip feed of housing does nothing because the number of people bidding still vastly outnumbers the sellers.

So 10 houses come on the market tomorrow - 100 people bid against each other driving up prices. Another 10 comes on the market next month - 90 people are bidding against each other driving prices up.

Whereas if 50 houses came on the market tomorrow, those 100 people wouldn't all be chasing that tiny supply. They might be bidding against 4 or 5 others for the house but competition is much smaller.

Thanks, yeah that's what has happend with us. I refuse to get into a bidding war.

Twice I have discovered I have been outbid by the same council, they seem to be buying up the semi D's.

The last House I was outbid on there was at least 15 bidding on it. It ended up selling for substantially over asking price and needed renovation works. By the time they would be done it would not be economically viable

Geuze

kravmaga wrote: »

Going to throw a hand grenade into the room.

I always thought the average industrial wage was €35 k approx in Ireland.

I am blue in the face saying this.

Average industrial wage IS NO LONGER PUBLISHED.


The CSO now publish AVERAGE EARNINGS.


https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/

Geuze

kravmaga wrote: »

Going to throw a hand grenade into the room.

I always thought the average industrial wage was €35 k approx in Ireland.

Last published in 2015.

685 per week.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-hes/hes2015/aiw/

AssetBacked2

brisan wrote: »

The average wage is not 47.5k .but you knew that

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/earningsandlabourcosts/#:~:text=Final%20data%20for%20average%20weekly,%E2%82%AC23.69%20to%20%E2%82%AC25.57.

And the average house price in Dublin is significantly higher at €438,693. Probably the ERSI estimate of 10% (or was it KBC?) off that by next year would be a great thing for the market. Would certainly help a lot of FTBs get ladders to move those deposits up the pyramid and provide positive reinforcement to those that then see a bump in activity among FTBs.

Cantstandsya

ShlugMurphy wrote: »

How long do ye reckon the first time buyer grant will be around?

I'm in a real pickle. The 20/30k would be great but I can't afford a new house in the area I'm in.

I'm living a few hours away from where I'm from and not sure how long i'll stay here before moving back. Could be 2,3,4 years before I do that.

I'm single.

I am sick of renting and would like to buy at the same time though. I would probably rent out a room to half the mortgage payment. So I would probably be "gaining" if I bought 2nd hand but I would lose the first time buyer grant, which there's no guarantees will be there when the time comes.

It's tough, because if I had the job I have now, back home, I'd be laughing.

I know lads building back home and they'd be building anyways so the 30k is free money.

The grant is for builders, not buyers.

It will be in place as long as FF are near government and if it's gone then new houses will be 30k cheaper, so don't worry about it.

Marius34

ShlugMurphy wrote: »

How long do ye reckon the first time buyer grant will be around?

I'm in a real pickle. The 20/30k would be great but I can't afford a new house in the area I'm in.

I'm living a few hours away from where I'm from and not sure how long i'll stay here before moving back. Could be 2,3,4 years before I do that.

I'm single.

I am sick of renting and would like to buy at the same time though. I would probably rent out a room to half the mortgage payment. So I would probably be "gaining" if I bought 2nd hand but I would lose the first time buyer grant, which there's no guarantees will be there when the time comes.

It's tough, because if I had the job I have now, back home, I'd be laughing.

I know lads building back home and they'd be building anyways so the 30k is free money.

It may be there until construction sector can ramp-up/build over 30K/year residential properties without this support. So there should be other conditions around for construction sector to build high number of residential properties.

Interested Observer

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

And the average house price in Dublin is significantly higher at €438,693. Probably the ERSI estimate of 10% (or was it KBC?) off that by next year would be a great thing for the market. Would certainly help a lot of FTBs get ladders to move those deposits up the pyramid and provide positive reinforcement to those that then see a bump in activity among FTBs.

Well what is it?

Cyrus

katiek102010 wrote: »

well over true market value

true market value is what it sells for unfortunately not what you think it is.

AssetBacked2

Interested Observer wrote: »

Well what is it?

Well, really it should be median for both salaries and house prices to assess whether house prices are generally affordable. There is scope to assess affordability by allowing for some leverage but the maximum of 3.5 times borrowing is just that; a maximum and should not be used as the standard.

fliball123

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Well, really it should be median for both salaries and house prices to assess whether house prices are generally affordable. There is scope to assess affordability by allowing for some leverage but the maximum of 3.5 times borrowing is just that; a maximum and should not be used as the standard.

Anyone buying a house will always go for their maximum why would they limit their choices with an already p1ss poor selection that currently exists. The rules 3.5 of your wage is supposed to keep you from borrowing over what you can afford.

PropQueries

In relation to Dublin City Council voting down the deal with Glenveagh to build 850 homes on a council site in Dublin this week, the Irish Times today has broken down the cost to the councils between building directly versus the cost of turnkey acquisitions during 2019.

A few examples are here and they are averages as they don't break down what they actually bought/built e.g. size, house, apartment etc.:

Fingal County Council:

Turnkey Acquisition Cost: €412k
Direct Build Cost: €209,300

Dublin City Council:
Turnkey Acquisition Cost: €382,200
Direct Build Cost: €181,500

They also provide a breakdown in other counties with the link to the Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/local-councils-can-build-social-housing-at-half-the-cost-of-private-developers-1.4411980

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to Dublin City Council voting down the deal with Glenveagh to build 850 homes on a council site in Dublin this week, the Irish Times today has broken down the cost to the councils between building directly versus the cost of turnkey acquisitions during 2019.

A few examples are here and they are averages as they don't break down what they actually bought/built e.g. size, house, apartment etc.:

Fingal County Council:

Turnkey Acquisition Cost: €412k
Direct Build Cost: €209,300

Dublin City Council:
Turnkey Acquisition Cost: €382,200
Direct Build Cost: €181,500

They also provide a breakdown in other counties with the link to the Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/local-councils-can-build-social-housing-at-half-the-cost-of-private-developers-1.4411980

Cant see the article not paying for it. Now Props have you done the full cost on both comparisons, not that I doubt you as your always soooo honest and have absolutely no hidden agenda

also your prediction of 20k houses being built this year and next isn't happening

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/homes-property/virus-hits-housing-as-martin-expects-more-disruption-in-2021/ar-BB1b7mCt?ocid=ientp

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Cant see the article not paying for it. Now Props have you done the full cost on both comparisons, not that I doubt you as your always soooo honest and have absolutely no hidden agenda

You can read the article by using a different device e.g. tablet, smartphone, laptop. The Irish Times allow a few free to read articles per week. It's the first full breakdown analysis I have come across so I thought it was interesting and relevant regarding the cost of delivery for housing (acquisitions vs direct build) in Ireland IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

You can read the article by using a different device e.g. tablet, smartphone, laptop. The Irish Times allow a few free to read articles per week.

Your prediction of 20k houses being built this year and next isn't happening

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/homes-property/virus-hits-housing-as-martin-expects-more-disruption-in-2021/ar-BB1b7mCt?li=BBr5KbJ

Also couldnt be bothered your not reliable when it comes to facts. You have been taken to task about skewing and leaving out crucial costs when building comparisons are taken into account

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Your prediction of 20k houses being built this year and next isn't happening

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/homes-property/virus-hits-housing-as-martin-expects-more-disruption-in-2021/ar-BB1b7mCt?li=BBr5KbJ

Also couldnt be bothered your not reliable when it comes to facts. You have been taken to task about skewing and leaving out crucial costs when building comparisons are taken into account

Well, according to the CSO, 13,335 new built residential units were completed between Q1 2020 and Q3 2020 so we will see in January if they reach the c. 20,000 figure that Goodbody have predicted will be completed by year end.

RTE article on Goodbody report (Nov. 2020) here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1105/1176065-goodbody-ber-housebuilding-tracker/

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to the CSO, 13,335 new built residential units were completed between Q1 2020 and Q3 2020 so we will see in January if they reach the c. 20,000 figure that Goodbody have predicted will be completed by year end.

RTE article on Goodbody report (Nov. 2020) here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1105/1176065-goodbody-ber-housebuilding-tracker/

haha Props look your an amazing man/woman for the comedy have you ever considered stand up. We have the taoiseach of ireland saying its not happening CSO and Goodbodys are predictions and that is all they were at the start of the year and it wont be happening.. Martin is going on current info ( we have about 3/4 weeks left of building time this year most building sites close down about a week or two before xmas) so unless the rest of the 20k houses are completed using Lego its not happening. Did you read the amount of hours construction was down during lockdown? and we are currently going through it again. Look you can bring a horse to water but you can make them drink. It will be interesting to see how far short they are off the 20k I reckon 16k might be reached.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

haha Props look your an amazing man/woman for the comedy have you ever considered stand up. We have the taoiseach of ireland saying its not happening CSO and Goodbodys are predictions and that is all they were at the start of the year and it wont be happening.. Martin is going on current info ( we have about 3/4 weeks left of building time this year most building sites close down about a week or two before xmas) so unless the rest of the 20k houses are completed using Lego its not happening. Did you read the amount of hours construction was down during lockdown? and we are currently going through it again. Look you can bring a horse to water but you can make them drink. It will be interesting to see how far short they are off the 20k I reckon 16k might be reached.

They made the prediction 2 weeks ago.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

They made the prediction 2 weeks ago.

Martin made the comment today or yesterday

Also your goodbodys link the last paragraph is what you should pay attention to

"Given the unpredictable nature of the virus and the government reaction to it, forecasts are still subject to a higher degree of uncertainty than normal," he added.

AssetBacked2

fliball123 wrote: »

Anyone buying a house will always go for their maximum why would they limit their choices with an already p1ss poor selection that currently exists. The rules 3.5 of your wage is supposed to keep you from borrowing over what you can afford.

You hit the nail on the head.

The reason they have to go for the maximum is to avoid the p1ss poor properties for less. That isn't how it should be. It is a maximum and it should be possible to get something decent without having to borrow the maximum possible.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

the Irish Times today has broken down the cost to the councils between building directly versus the cost of turnkey acquisitions during 2019.

A few examples are here and they are averages as they don't break down what they actually bought/built e.g. size, house, apartment etc.

Pretty weak article from the IT. Their comparisons are meaningless without knowing the type/size of properties being compared and how things like land costs have been calculated.

Added:

looking at the response from the Minister for Housings to the original PQ, it does look like the intention is for about 75% of new units to be delivered through LA build programmes. If they can deliver social housing at the figures tabled, happy days.

fliball123

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

You hit the nail on the head.

The reason they have to go for the maximum is to avoid the p1ss poor properties for less. That isn't how it should be. It is a maximum and it should be possible to get something decent without having to borrow the maximum possible.

If you want a decent gaff in a decent area you have to pay for it. Why should Ireland be any different to any other country in the world?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Pretty weak article from the IT. Their comparisons are meaningless without knowing the type/size of properties being compared and how things like land costs have been calculated.

Added:

looking at the response from the Minister for Housings to the original PQ, it does look like the intention is for about 75% of new units to be delivered through LA build programmes. If they can deliver social housing at the figures tabled, happy days.

But hasn't that been the argument put out by many commentators. If the council builds on state lands, they can deliver units at a significantly reduced cost. I did mention that they didn't break down the delivery by house vs apartment vs. size etc. and that they were average figures.

But it does throw a bit of a fly in the ointment in relation to the narrative that councils don't have the expertise/ skills etc. to build their own units I think.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But hasn't that been the argument put out by many commentators. If the council builds on state lands, they can deliver units at a significantly reduced cost. I did mention that they didn't break down the delivery by house vs apartment vs. size etc. and that they were average figures.

But it does throw a bit of a fly in the ointment in relation to the narrative that councils don't have the expertise/ skills etc. to build their own units I think.

Props when it comes to you and your facts and figures its more ointment in the flies

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

If you want a decent gaff in a decent area you have to pay for it. Why should Ireland be any different to any other capital city and country in the world?

Area of Greater London = 1572 sq.km

Population of Greater London = 8.9 Million (2018)

Area of Co. Dublin = 921 sq.km

Population of Co. Dublin = 1.345 Million (2016)

I think we are different to most other major cities in the world. Our population density is very low compared to most other cities and in relation to London, it isn't as high rise as many believe and they also have plenty of parks etc.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Area of Greater London = 1572 sq.km

Population of Greater London = 8.9 Million (2018)

Area of Co. Dublin = 921 sq.km

Population of Co. Dublin = 1.345 Million (2016)

I think we are different to most other major cities in the world. Our population density is very low compared to most other cities and in relation to London, it isn't as high rise as many believe and they also have plenty of parks etc.

We also dont do high rise at the rate that London do, how are property prices in London in comparison to Dublin?

https://perfectproperty.ie/advice/entry/dublin-vs-european-cities/

AssetBacked2

fliball123 wrote: »

If you want a decent gaff in a decent area you have to pay for it. Why should Ireland be any different to any other country in the world?

Where did anyone say decent gaff in decent area? I just said decent gaff. It should be possible to get a decent gaff in Dublin for the median house price and not necessarily needing to borrow the maximum permitted. Credit is not a good thing for individuals, that's why you find that businesses generally take the form of separate legal personalities to the people that establish them.

fliball123

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Where did anyone say decent gaff in decent area? I just said decent gaff. It should be possible to get a decent gaff in Dublin for the median house price, not necessarily needing to borrow the maximum permitted. Credit is not a good thing for individuals, that's why you' find that businesses generally take the form of separate legal personalities to the people that establish them.

Look asset anyone buying a gaff is always going to strive to get the best property in the best location at a cost that they can afford. There are properties in Dublin that you can get at the price you suggest if you want them but you will have to update them or move to an area that you might think is a bit rough or commute a bit longer into a major town/city. When you start out and buy a gaff (well in my case) it was always with the idea that I would be moving up the chain with regards to wage so a house taking up say 30/40% of my wage at the start in 10 years would be down to less than 20% of what I am earning. I know this doesnt always work out that way. But if you compare people working in their 40s to people working in their 20s I reckon there is a big pay disparity with those in their 40s earning more.

Bubbaclaus

fliball123 wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how far short they are off the 20k I reckon 16k might be reached.

They built 13.5k in the first 3 quarters of this year, and Q4 is always the biggest quarter for completions. If it doesn't reach 20k this year it will at least be pretty close to it. Certainly well over 16k.

25k is the estimate for 2021 per that article you are referring to.

Bubbaclaus

I see the latest CSO PPI report has property prices in Ireland continuing to slowly creep upwards month on month. Up another 0.2%.