Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

They built 13.5k in the first 3 quarters of this year, and Q4 is always the biggest quarter for completions. If it doesn't reach 20k this year it will at least be pretty close to it. Certainly well over 16k.

25k is the estimate for 2021 per that article you are referring to.

So Q4 has to deal with

Another 6 week lockdown
Bad weather lots of sites cant operate normally when the weather is bad its unsafe to do so.
Closure for 2/3 weeks xmas

Look no point in arguing we will see what the figure is come jan of next year. I am going to say 16k

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I see the latest CSO PPI report has property prices in Ireland continuing to slowly creep upwards month on month. Up another 0.2%.

have you a link Babbaclaus be interesting to see that

Marius34

Residential Property Price Index September 2020
"Residential property prices (houses and apartments) decreased by 0.8% nationally in the year to September."
"In Dublin, residential property prices saw a decline of 1.8% in the year to September, while property prices outside Dublin were 0.1% higher."
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexseptember2020/

Bubbaclaus

fliball123 wrote: »

So Q4 has to deal with

Another 6 week lockdown
Bad weather lots of sites cant operate normally when the weather is bad its unsafe to do so.
Closure for 2/3 week xmas

Look no point in arguing we will see what the figure is come jan of next year. I am going to say 16k

Construction is open for this lockdown.

The rest of your points apply every year. Didn't stop 6.5k completions in Q4 last year and Q4 to historically always being the biggest quarter for new completions. You are basically saying that you expect Q4 completions to only be 40% of last year. Which is just not realistic.

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

Residential Property Price Index September 2020
"Residential property prices (houses and apartments) decreased by 0.8% nationally in the year to September."
"In Dublin, residential property prices saw a decline of 1.8% in the year to September, while property prices outside Dublin were 0.1% higher."
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexseptember2020/

So am I reading this right prices up .6% in the last 4 months? If it is right considering corona that is completely gone against what I thought would of happened in February I really thought we would seen a decrease of about 5% by the end of the year

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

We also dont do high rise at the rate that London do, how are property prices in London in comparison to Dublin?

https://perfectproperty.ie/advice/entry/dublin-vs-european-cities/

This looks like it’s comparing Dublin Houses (161.8) v European homes (houses & apartments) so it doesn’t look like for like

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Construction is open for this lockdown.

The rest of your points apply every year. Didn't stop 6.5k completions in Q4 last year and Q4 to historically always being the biggest quarter for new completions. You are basically saying that you expect Q4 completions to only be 40% of last year. Which is just not realistic.

yeah but if you compare actual hours worked during lockdown as apposed to say the same time last year they are way down. Well last year we didnt have a 6 week lockdown. Look as I said to Props no point arguing I have said i think about 16k if I am wrong I will hold my hands up and say it.

fliball123

Smouse156 wrote: »

This looks like it’s comparing Dublin Houses (161.8) v European homes (houses & apartments) so it doesn’t look like for like

is it not comparing on sq meters?

AssetBacked2

If the government spends their way out of the covid crisis, house prices won't decrease by much more than they already have (certainly not the more affordable houses anyway). I know of a few people (myself included) who are potential FTBs and waiting to buy with increased deposits and no more overdrafts, loans etc. Dare I say it but the headlines about there being pent-up demand among those who have been WFH the last 7 months seem to be quite accurate.

timmyntc

Smouse156 wrote: »

This looks like it’s comparing Dublin Houses (161.8) v European homes (houses & apartments) so it doesn’t look like for like

But why would perfectproperty.ie lie? What would they have to gain by telling people Dublin prices are actually really cheap and that they should buy now? :rolleyes:

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

So am I reading this right prices up .6% in the last 4 months? If it is right considering corona that is completely gone against what I thought would of happened in February I really thought we would seen a decrease of about 5% by the end of the year

You are right, but at the same time, I would rather compare y-on-y basis, to be consistent, not bias, and avoid any kind of seasonality factor.
Similar in my case I expected 5% decrease, but instead sometime in 2021, but due to last months events, it made me think that we won't see downtrends.

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

But why would perfectproperty.ie lie? What would they have to gain by telling people Dublin prices are actually really cheap and that they should buy now? :rolleyes:

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/region_prices_by_city?itemId=100&region=150&displayCurrency=EUR

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1052000/cost-of-apartments-in-europe-by-city/

I wonder if these have the same agenda they would seem to back up the idea that Dublin isnt the rip off people make it out to be when compared to other major cities in Europe

AssetBacked2

When it comes to rip-off Ireland, what I find is that people don't up sticks and leave despite claiming it is too expensive to live. It speaks to the high standard of living we have here (which would include political stability, little refugee or terrorism concerns (compared to other EU countries), stable climate, decent salaries, access to education, equitable social welfare, safety, liberal society and you can generally get what you want when you want (i.e. food, goods and services).

Pelezico

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

When it comes to rip-off Ireland, what I find is that people don't up sticks and leave despite claiming it is too expensive to live. It speaks to the high standard of living we have here (which would include political stability, little refugee or terrorism concerns (compared to other EU countries), stable climate, decent salaries, access to education, equitable social welfare, safety, liberal society and you can generally get what you want when you want (i.e. food, goods and services).

I have travelled extensively for work. There are Irish guys living everywhere. That is not an exaggeration.

That is just the way we are.

fliball123

Pelezico wrote: »

I have travelled extensively for work. There are Irish guys living everywhere. That is not an exaggeration.

That is just the way we are.

Yeah we are historically a nation that exports our people but this trend did a U-turn over the last 4/5 years more people coming into the country now than leaving

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

ShlugMurphy

fliball123 wrote: »

So Q4 has to deal with

Another 6 week lockdown
Bad weather lots of sites cant operate normally when the weather is bad its unsafe to do so.
Closure for 2/3 weeks xmas

Look no point in arguing we will see what the figure is come jan of next year. I am going to say 16k

Weather hasn't been bad at all.

It's been abnormally mild.

fliball123

ShlugMurphy wrote: »

Weather hasn't been bad at all.

It's been abnormally mild.

Yes it has there has still been days with lots of rain and we are still in Lockdown and it will slow the process . Look only 6/7 weeks to go we will see what the building figures are in Jan

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah we are historically a nation that exports our people but this trend did a U-turn over the last 4/5 years more people coming into the country now than leaving

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

From your link, as of 2019 there's been more Irish nationals leaving the country than entering it. Were it not for COVID, this year would have been similar I'd say

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

From your link, as of 2019 there's been more Irish nationals leaving the country than entering it. Were it not for COVID, this year would have been similar I'd say

And yet we still had an extra 33700 more people coming into Ireland vs leaving from Ireland. So living here must not be too bad

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

And yet we still had an extra 33700 more people coming into Ireland vs leaving from Ireland. So living here must not be too bad

People come here to make money. Doesn't mean anything else

Smouse156

timmyntc wrote: »

But why would perfectproperty.ie lie? What would they have to gain by telling people Dublin prices are actually really cheap and that they should buy now? :rolleyes:

Looks like lazy research. Comparing houses v homes.

fliball123

bubblypop wrote: »

People come here to make money. Doesn't mean anything else

People can make money anywhere

fliball123

bubblypop wrote: »

People come here to make money. Doesn't mean anything else

People can make money in other areas with better weather and with remote working its even easier and still last year over 33k more coming in than leaving.

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

is it not comparing on sq meters?

Yes but all the brickies keep claiming that apartments are far more expensive to construct per than apartments so excluding all Dublin apartments from this has an effect.

Average Dublin homes are €420k and they’re definitely not 161 sqm (especially if you include apartments). Look at the CSO. So the whole basis of the article is wrong.

Overall it just looks like a lazy article with little effort put in

fliball123

Smouse156 wrote: »

Yes but all the brickies keep claiming that apartments are far more expensive to construct per than apartments so excluding all Dublin apartments from this has an effect.

Overall it just looks like a lazy article with little effort put in

what about the other 2 links that back up the data and no hidden agenda and not just outside or inside Dublin

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/region_prices_by_city?itemId=100&region=150

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1052000/cost-of-apartments-in-europe-by-city/

Browney7

Marius34 wrote: »

Residential Property Price Index September 2020
"Residential property prices (houses and apartments) decreased by 0.8% nationally in the year to September."
"In Dublin, residential property prices saw a decline of 1.8% in the year to September, while property prices outside Dublin were 0.1% higher."
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexseptember2020/

What's interesting is the CSO's secondary index where they compare new and and existing dwellings (which looks to be on a national basis and not split by Dublin/Rest of country).

The Q3 2019 index value for new property is 130.8 and has risen each quarter to 133.0 at Q3 2020. Amazingly, the rate of increase increased in Q2 and Q3 just as the help to buy grant was increased to 30k instead of the previous 20k. Also, the change to the scheme improved the lot of buyers with little or no deposit as they could now get 10% of the property back and if they got approved for a cashback mortgage with BOI or EBS another 2% so the demand side for new builds was supported by government incentives. Environmental regs and building standards likely to also have contributed to increased costs which I don't know if the CSO account for in their index composition.

When you consider the BPFI mortgage drawdown data, the % share by volume of drawdowns for new builds in Q3 20 was 37.6% which was the highest share since Q2 2010. Activity in new builds in the "new normal" has been robust whilst the second hand market has seen a bigger decline in activity. FTB drawdown volume for new build purchase in Q3 19 was 1.9Bn which dropped to 1.6Bn in Q3 20.

On the other hand, the index value for existing dwellings dropped from 136.1 in Q3 2019 to 133.9 in Q3 2020 (having hit a low in q2 2020 of 133.7). There has been some commentary that demand for houses in the high price bracket over 600k has been soft so this is potentially driving this.

Government incentives could continue to curtail the second hand market as buyers flock to new builds due to the "free money" on offer for buying new.

brisan

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

You hit the nail on the head.

The reason they have to go for the maximum is to avoid the p1ss poor properties for less. That isn't how it should be. It is a maximum and it should be possible to get something decent without having to borrow the maximum possible.

The price of a house will be dictated not by its value or its cost but by the maximum price it can achieve in the current market
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Wexford 250k
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Parkside Balgriffin 400k
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Blackrock 750k
Why the difference
Its not all to do with cost
Its to do with maximum achievable price

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

what about the other 2 links that back up the data and no hidden agenda and not just outside or inside Dublin

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-livin...ayCurrency=EUR

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...urope-by-city/

The first link won’t open. However, I do agree that price per sqm in Dublin is cheaper than most capitals in Europe.

I’m just saying the article was lazy. Anyone believing the average home is 161sqm (nearly 1800sqft) clearly hasn’t done any research.

Graham

brisan wrote: »

The price of a house will be dictated not by its value or its cost but by the maximum price it can achieve in the current market
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Wexford 250k
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Parkside Balgriffin 400k
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Blackrock 750k
Why the difference
Its not all to do with cost
Its to do with maximum achievable price

I don't think that's entirely accurate. Maximum achievable price feeds into some of the costs.

Using your example, the cost of land in Blackrock will rise to the price a developer will pay while still being able to make a realistic profit.

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Construction is open for this lockdown.

The rest of your points apply every year. Didn't stop 6.5k completions in Q4 last year and Q4 to historically always being the biggest quarter for new completions. You are basically saying that you expect Q4 completions to only be 40% of last year. Which is just not realistic.

Q4 completions are always bigger because Jan -Feb are known to be busy months for house sales
Builders just following the money
This year will be no different