Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

The price of a house will be dictated not by its value or its cost but by the maximum price it can achieve in the current market
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Wexford 250k
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Parkside Balgriffin 400k
3 bed 100sq mt new build house in Blackrock 750k
Why the difference
Its not all to do with cost
Its to do with maximum achievable price

Any info on when the houses were built as we do know the cost of building has gone up over the years. There would also be a difference in cost for land in all 3 areas you put up. But prices will factor in the cost of the build, cost of land, as well as labour and what it can achieve on the current market.

cost of land just as an example of how big a gap there can be with regards to land (all asking prices)
Higher end Dublin- the first one here must be a mistake?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2a-jones-road-drumcondra-dublin-9/4452160


https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/wits-end-the-rookery-dublin-16-knocklyon-dublin-16/4442578

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/site-at-ardnasilla-hainault-road-foxrock-dublin-18/3856913

Lower end and probably without planning

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-valley-park-road-finglas-dublin-11/4452191

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/site-to-side-of-1-cherrywood-park-clondalkin-dublin-22/4435778

Wexford
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kisha-tagoat-co-wexford/117966

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/newtown-great-island-campile-wexford/4120431

fliball123

Smouse156 wrote: »

The first link won’t open. However, I do agree that price per sqm in Dublin is cheaper than most capitals in Europe.

I’m just saying the article was lazy. Anyone believing the average home is 161sqm (nearly 1800sqft) clearly hasn’t done any research.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/region_prices_by_city?itemId=100&region=150

ShlugMurphy

fliball123 wrote: »

Yes it has there has still been days with lots of rain and we are still in Lockdown and it will slow the process . Look only 6/7 weeks to go we will see what the building figures are in Jan

Lockdown hasn't affected construction at all. Everything construction related is open.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

And yet we still had an extra 33700 more people coming into Ireland vs leaving from Ireland. So living here must not be too bad

Where are the people going to ,where are the people coming from
Difference in moving to Ireland from Romania ,Poland etc and Moving from Ireland to London USA or Australia

fliball123

ShlugMurphy wrote: »

Lockdown hasn't affected construction at all. Everything construction related is open.

I know it stayed open but there will still be a lag with all the new Covid rules and regulations.

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Where are the people going to ,where are the people coming from
Difference in moving to Ireland from Romania ,Poland etc and Moving from Ireland to London USA or Australia

Hang on I know people who have come from England, America and Australia to live here over the last couple of years. Can you prove its just Eastern Europeans coming in. I cant prove your wrong but can you prove your right with that statement? I would of thought we would of had a fair number of people moving from the UK to Ireland due to Brexit alone

Bubbaclaus

fliball123 wrote: »

I know it stayed open but there will still be a lag with all the new Covid rules and regulations.

Presumably these construction related covid rules and regulations were in place in Q3 also, when 5,118 dwellings were completed?

brisan

Graham wrote: »

I don't think that's entirely accurate. Maximum achievable price feeds into some of the costs.

Using your example, the cost of land in Blackrock will rise to the price a developer will pay while still being able to make a realistic profit.

Agreed to a point ,some costs will be more
So a plot of land in Blackrock costs 500k or thereabouts more than in Wexford,I doubt it

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I don't think that's entirely accurate. Maximum achievable price feeds into some of the costs.

Using your example, the cost of land in Blackrock will rise to the price a developer will pay while still being able to make a realistic profit.

That's true. So one could make the argument that the high cost of housing in Dublin in primarily due to the local county council and depends on how they draw up their development plans.

For example, if I own an acre of undeveloped land in Blackrock and my neighbour also owns an acre of undeveloped land right next to me. If my land is zoned parkland etc. and his land is re-zoned high density residential, his land is now worth millions and my land is still worth technically zero.

There was an argument years ago that this windfall profit from such decisions should accrue to the state and not the actual landowner.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Any info on when the houses were built as we do know the cost of building has gone up over the years. There would also be a difference in cost for land in all 3 areas you put up. But prices will factor in the cost of the build, cost of land, as well as labour and what it can achieve on the current market.

cost of land just as an example of how big a gap there can be with regards to land (all asking prices)
Higher end Dublin- the first one here must be a mistake?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2a-jones-road-drumcondra-dublin-9/4452160


https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/wits-end-the-rookery-dublin-16-knocklyon-dublin-16/4442578

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/site-at-ardnasilla-hainault-road-foxrock-dublin-18/3856913

Lower end and probably without planning

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-valley-park-road-finglas-dublin-11/4452191

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/site-to-side-of-1-cherrywood-park-clondalkin-dublin-22/4435778

Wexford
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/kisha-tagoat-co-wexford/117966

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/newtown-great-island-campile-wexford/4120431

All new builds so this year or late last year

Claw Hammer

ShlugMurphy wrote: »

Lockdown hasn't affected construction at all. Everything construction related is open.

What has affected construction is the fact of Covid. Very few sites are beginning construction. I was told by a site contractor that foundations are not being dug. Existing projects are continuing to completion. There may be as many completions this years as last but what of starts?

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Agreed to a point ,some costs will be more
So a plot of land in Blackrock costs 500k or thereabouts more than in Wexford,I doubt it

i wouldnt be at all surprised.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

That's true. So one could make the argument that the high cost of housing in Dublin in primarily due to the local county council and depends on how they draw up their development plans.

Not sure that's entirely accurate.

In your two-plot in Blackrock example, if both plots were zoned residential, it's unlikely to be enough to bring the average land prices down in the area.

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Presumably these construction related covid rules and regulations were in place in Q3 also, when 5,118 dwellings were completed?

Like I say I will hold my hands up if I am wrong when Jan comes around I reckon 16k so about 4k short of the 20k estimated at the start of the year. What were the build completions in Q1 and Q2? I believe up until the end of Q3 we were ar 13.300k (approx) So Q4 we have to get 6.7k finished with a new lockdown, bad weather, Xmas holidays and MeHole Martin telling us 20k wont be possible yesterday?...As I say no point arguing the data will be there in Jan

Graham

brisan wrote: »

Agreed to a point ,some costs will be more
So a plot of land in Blackrock costs 500k or thereabouts more than in Wexford,I doubt it

Depends on the size of the plot, there's definitely no point arguing land costs have no impact on housing costs.

There's also the LA contributions, labour costs, demand side, quality of expected finishes for the market etc. to take into account.

Bubbaclaus

fliball123 wrote: »

Like I say I will hold my hands up if I am wrong when Jan comes around I reckon 16k so about 4k short of the 20k estimated at the start of the year. What were the build completions in Q1 and Q2? I believe up until the end of Q3 we were ar 13.300k (approx) So Q4 we have to get 6.7k finished with a new lockdown, bad weather, Xmas holidays and MeHole Martin telling us 20k wont be possible yesterday?...As I say no point arguing the data will be there in Jan

20k is a recent estimate, not an estimate from the start of the year. Pre covid, the estimate for 2020 was 24-25k.

2020 so far
Q1 completions 5k
Q2 completions 3.2k (construction shut for a period)
Q3 completions 5.1k

Q4 is historically the best for completions, so you would be looking at 6k or so by my reckoning.

Claw Hammer

brisan wrote: »

Agreed to a point ,some costs will be more
So a plot of land in Blackrock costs 500k or thereabouts more than in Wexford,I doubt it

Some plots of land in Blackrock cost more than 1m. On Woodbine Road several houses sold for around €1m, have or are being demolished and a new house constructed on the site.

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

20k is a recent estimate, not an estimate from the start of the year. Pre covid, the estimate or 2020 was 24-25k.

2020 so far
Q1 completions 5k
Q2 completions 3.2k (construction shut for a period)
Q3 completions 5.1k

Q4 is historically the best for completions, so you would be looking at 6k or so by my reckoning.

And Martin said it as recently as yesterday that 20k would not be complete by the end of the year. so I think I would listen to the leader of the country telling bad news that does nothing good for him or his party . But we are arguing over something that will happen soon so no point in dwelling on it. You have said 20k would be doable I am saying it wont lets leave it at that and find out in jan

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Not sure that's entirely accurate.

In your two-plot in Blackrock example, if both plots were zoned residential, it's unlikely to be enough to bring the average land prices down in the area.

These development plans are drawn up over a long period of time. They also know that wherever they draw a line is the difference between a plot of land being worth either millions or basically zero.

IMO, they should consult with all landlowners prior to a development plan being published and ascertain if they do intend to apply for planning permission and build. Otherwise, why rezone it?

If not, their land isn't rezoned. If they do intend to build and their land is re-zoned, they should be told that they must apply for planning permission within 6 months (have a fast track approval process) and start building within 12 months otherwise a CPO order is put in place at a pre-rezoned valuation.

There's too much money to be made from re-zoning for any leeway to be provided to the beneficiaries of such re-zoning decisions IMO.

Bubbaclaus

fliball123 wrote: »

And Martin said it as recently as yesterday that 20k would not be complete by the end of the year. so I think I would listen to the leader of the country telling bad news that does nothing good for him or his party . But we are arguing over something that will happen soon so no point in dwelling on it. You have said 20k would be doable I am saying it wont lets leave it at that and find out in jan

My estimate would be somewhere around 19.5k, which would tie in with what Martin is saying.

Certainly nowhere near struggling to get to 16k. We are probably past 16k already.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

People can make money anywhere

Yep, maybe they can make more here, depending on their qualifications.
It doesn't necessarily hold that they are here because of how fantastic Ireland is.
It also means that they can go anywhere, should somewhere else become more attractive.

I don't believe we should think we can rely on always having more people coming into the country

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

There's too much money to be made from re-zoning for any leeway to be provided to the beneficiaries of such re-zoning decisions IMO.

Probably not something that's going to change in the context of the property market this year (or next).

combat14

House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

Bubbaclaus

combat14 wrote: »

House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

Prices have been growing month on month in each of the last 6 months. There was a bit of a dip pre covid, which is why the YoY figure is still showing as down, but that is not covid related. Sales prices have actually been rising slowly since March. Mostly steady really.

Cyrus

combat14 wrote: »

House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

house prices will continue to rise outside dublin and they will continue to stagnate in dublin as we hit affordability limits a couple of years ago, but dont let that get in the way of your sarcasm.

thefridge2006

combat14 wrote: »

House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

Down 2% in Dublin...….. and we haven't even seen the affects of Covid yet. 2% and the economy in on life support with money being pumped into to it....

This will be a bloodbath when support get switched off.

fliball123

combat14 wrote: »

House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

0.6% rise in the last 4 months?

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Down 2% in Dublin...….. and we haven't even seen the affects of Covid yet. 2% and the economy in on life support with money being pumped into to it....

This will be a bloodbath when support get switched off.

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

My estimate would be somewhere around 19.5k, which would tie in with what Martin is saying.

Certainly nowhere near struggling to get to 16k. We are probably past 16k already.

Not sure, but if I was martin and I knew we were getting close to the 20k mark and 19.5k is close I would of rephrased it and I would of tailored my response as a positive and saying we will get to 19.5k even with all of the challenges of covid. I mean surely he doesn't want to be playing right into Sinn Fein's hands.

Pelezico

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Down 2% in Dublin...….. and we haven't even seen the affects of Covid yet. 2% and the economy in on life support with money being pumped into to it....

This will be a bloodbath when support get switched off.

It is looking good for a major downturn ok. When the pump stops pumping, I would not like to be holding newly acquired property bought at too dollar.

That 30k booster wont last forever either as the economy tightens and taxes increase/spending decreases.

Good news for my son. Thank goodness he was gazumped in February.