Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

I suppose my point was that the level of social housing required to resolve the housing waiting list problem isn't as large as many commentators make out.

In relation to the 75% over the next few years, that would be based upon my assumption that the demand isn't as high as many commentators believe and interest rates rising to c. 5% over the next couple of years.

Both are assumptions but the interest rate rise may happen much sooner than many commentators believe. Yesterday, in the Irish Times, Martin Wolf (columnist for the FT) gave some credence to two economists who believe inflation will hit anywhere between 5% and 10% next year and the article was on how would the central banks respond to such a rise and how would countries and companies handle the adverse impact of such a rise.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-inflation-could-be-on-the-way-back-1.4412554

You all over the place, inflation and house prices dropping 75% as the robot in Lost in Space used to say ''dose not compute''

75% fall and inflation means a house would be bought for a bit with a years wages in such a situation. Inflation actually would push the price of new builds as wages and materials rise in prices. Will inflation increase, I believe so, there is too much savings and demand for consumables is increasing. On such a situation if interest remain low on savings consumers would start spending as money devalues and prices rise, that new bathroom would become a priority and that extension. It would then make sense to carry out insulation and energy efficiency projects on houses as pay back times would decrease.However wages would rise as well. This would mean that if you got on the housing ladder inflation would soften the repayments in 5-10years

Demand for social and affordable housing is increasing. It would continue to increase and in a. Inflation eara Government would be under more pressure to build and supply housing as builders and developers struggle with inflation

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

You all over the place, inflation and house prices dropping 75% as the robot in Lost in Space used to say ''dose not compute''

75% fall and inflation means a house would be bought for a bit with a years wages in such a situation. Inflation actually would push the price of new builds as wages and materials rise in prices. Will inflation increase, I believe so, there is too much savings and demand for consumables is increasing. On such a situation if interest remain low on savings consumers would start spending as money devalues and prices rise, that new bathroom would become a priority and that extension. It would then make sense to carry out insulation and energy efficiency projects on houses as pay back times would decrease.However wages would rise as well. This would mean that if you got on the housing ladder inflation would soften the repayments in 5-10years

Demand for social and affordable housing is increasing. It would continue to increase and in a. Inflation eara Government would be under more pressure to build and supply housing as builders and developers struggle with inflation

I don't believe wages would rise much in Ireland in an era of high inflation. We're very reliant on multinationals and we already have a relatively high wage rate. If wage rises matched the inflation levels those two economists predict, then these multinationals may very seriously consider moving to lower wage countries in the EU. We have already seen how fast they can move employees from the office in relation to WFH. And, we've already seen how quickly they can move money in and out of the country.

And, that's assuming the upcoming OECD global tax reforms go in our favour.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe wages would rise much in Ireland in an era of high inflation.

of course they would, to think otherwise is foolish.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

of course they would, to think otherwise is foolish.

Higher inflation can only result in higher wages in a closed economy. In the short-term wages may rise, but in the medium to longer term they will just reduce their headcount and move to lower cost EU countries.

We're in a global economy where companies can move to and operate from anywhere. Even the companies that wished to stay, would need to compete with companies that made the shift to e.g. eastern europe and would have a lower cost base.

I think that's the primary reason why real wages haven't increased much in the USA for the past 30 years.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Higher inflation can only result in higher wages in a closed economy. In the short-term wages may rise, but in the medium to longer term they will just reduce their headcount and move to lower cost EU countries.

We're in a global economy where companies can move to and operate from anywhere. Even the companies that wished to stay, would need to compete with companies that made the shift to e.g. eastern europe and would have a lower cost base.

I think that's the primary reason why real wages haven't increased much in the USA for the past 30 years.

Yes we are in a global ecconomy and when the globe looks for a base in Europe its not just salary that they compare. The Eastern European countries are catching up with the western counterparts. Ireland has the attraction of the following

Only English speaking country in the EU.
A highly educated workforce for them to choose employees.
A tax base/system that actually entices companies to set up here.

Now show me one other country in Europe offering these 3 USPs

Stats over the last decade would suggest that Ireland is a good place to position yourself..either that or Google, Twitter, Microsoft, Facebook, Pfizer, MSD .. (not continuing too many companies to list but you get the gist) are all wrong in setting up some part of their company in Ireland. You only have to look at the tax take from MNCs

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Yes we are in a global ecconomy and when the globe looks for a base in Europe its not just salary the compare. The Eastern European countries are catching up with the western counterparts. Ireland has the attraction of the following

Only English speaking country in the EU.
A highly educated workforce for them to choose employees.
A tax base/system that actually entices companies to set up here.

Now show me one other country in Europe offering these 3 USPs

In relation to the first two, most other countries in the EU. In relation to the third, that may change quicker than we hope for under the OECD global tax reforms, the digital tax and the CCCTB.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the first two, most other countries in the EU. In relation to the third, that may change quicker than we hope for under the OECD global tax reforms, the digital tax and the CCCTB.

So all of these companies are wrong so? hang on where's my phone I must ring Mark Zuckerberg and tell him PropsQuery has spoken and your wrong setting up in Ireland. Your hilarity gets better the more you post. You do make me smile do

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So all of these companies are wrong so? hang on where's my phone I must ring Mark Zuckerberg and tell him PropsQuery has spoken and your wrong setting up in Ireland. Your hilarity gets better the more you post. You do make me smile do

I would be positive they already have plans in place for every scenario in relation to the outcome of the OECD global tax reforms.

But I'm not denying it could also go in our favour. The last reforms really worked out for us so it's entirely possible and I do hope it does.

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the first two, most other countries in the EU. In relation to the third, that may change quicker than we hope for under the OECD global tax reforms, the digital tax and the CCCTB.

So most other countries in the EU are English speaking I.e have English as their first language and conduct the vast majority of their business in English
I must inform the Germans and the French
A small percentage of the population Being able to hold a basic conversation in English does not make that country English speaking

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

So most other countries in the EU are English speaking I.e have English as their first language and conduct the vast majority of their business in English
I must inform the Germans and the French
A small percentage of the population Being able to hold a basic conversation in English does not make that country English speaking

Sure Bonjour I can speak French, Ole and Spanish

brisan

brisan wrote: »

So most other countries in the EU are English speaking I.e have English as their first language and conduct the vast majority of their business in English
I must inform the Germans and the French
A small percentage of the population Being able to hold a basic conversation in English does not make that country English speaking

To be fair, the majority of European countries have a huge amount of English speakers.
It's not a small amount of people speaking pigeon English.
It's not like the Irish, barely able to even speak out own language, let alone any others.
Any international business have employees that speak other languages and conduct large amounts of business through English.

Villa05

brisan wrote:

So most other countries in the EU are English speaking I.e have English as their first language and conduct the vast majority of their business in English I must inform the Germans and the French A small percentage of the population Being able to hold a basic conversation in English does not make that country English speaking

I wonder what are the chances of Scotland having another independence referendum in the near future.
Is English a widely learned language in Poland currentlt

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

I wonder what are the chances of Scotland having another independence referendum in the near future.
Is English a widely learned language in Poland currentlt

poland are a generation or two behind us, speak to anyone who has back office services there, its better than india but still a nightmare.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe wages would rise much in Ireland in an era of high inflation. We're very reliant on multinationals and we already have a relatively high wage rate. If wage rises matched the inflation levels those two economists predict, then these multinationals may very seriously consider moving to lower wage countries in the EU. We have already seen how fast they can move employees from the office in relation to WFH. And, we've already seen how quickly they can move money in and out of the country.

And, that's assuming the upcoming OECD global tax reforms go in our favour.

Did you even read the article quoted from the Irish Times. It as fairly specific as to the reason for inflation. It was down to labour costs rising. It pointed to labour growth from the 90's from China as well as former Soviet countries and women entering the workforce drove economic growth without inflation as most consumables started to be manufactured in China. Now as demand rises in these countries and there are ages level out as well as a shrinking labour force in developed countries then inflation is a possibility same as the 70's.

IMO there is a lot of grey wealth out there by that I mean that people in the 50+ group have become very well off and have substantial savings. Much of it on deposit. Inflation will force this money to become more active in the economy unless you see much higher interest rates

I see sheep wrote: »

He's injured

He is also old and the order a sports person gets the higher the risk of injury. He is 35 which is fairly old for an out half as reflexes slow down

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Did you even read the article quoted from the Irish Times. It as fairly specific as to the reason for inflation. It was down to labour costs rising. It pointed to labour growth from the 90's from China as well as former Soviet countries and women entering the workforce drove economic growth without inflation as most consumables started to be manufactured in China. Now as demand rises in these countries and there are ages level out as well as a shrinking labour force in developed countries then inflation is a possibility same as the 70's.

IMO there is a lot of grey wealth out there by that I mean that people in the 50+ group have become very well off and have substantial savings. Much of it on deposit. Inflation will force this money to become more active in the economy unless you see much higher interest rates

He is also old and the order a sports person gets the higher the risk of injury. He is 35 which is fairly old for an out half as reflexes slow down

That's true about the grey wealth. But you must remember that people retiring today will need their pensions to meet their retirement costs for next c. 30 years, basically the same length of time they have been working.

Most private pension funds are in significant deficit so pensioners may be reluctant to spend in case the money does run out even if interest rates remain the same. It also won't be long before the younger workers paying into these pension funds begin to question the benefits being paid out to the older workers and begin seeking a more equitable distribution.

The government would have to introduce a significant stick to get them to spend, inflation or no inflation IMO.

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

That's true about the grey wealth. But you must remember that people retiring today will need their pensions to meet their retirement costs for next c. 30 years, basically the same length of time they have been working.

Most private pension funds are in significant deficit so pensioners may be reluctant to spend in case the money does run out even if interest rates remain the same. It also won't be long before the younger workers paying into these pension funds begin to question the benefits being paid out to the older workers and begin seeking a more equitable distribution.

The government would have to introduce a significant stick to get them to spend, inflation or no inflation IMO.

It’s the older generation of single /separated / divorced people who are currently
renting who will become an issue for the state in the next 10-15 years
When they retire the state pension will not cover their rent and they would need a decent private pension to cover them
Selling a 300-350k family home will not buy 2 houses

Graham

Mod Note

discussion of social housing provision moved here

Sweet.Science

brisan wrote: »

It’s the older generation of single /separated / divorced people who are currently
renting who will become an issue for the state in the next 10-15 years
When they retire the state pension will not cover their rent and they would need a decent private pension to cover them
Selling a 300-350k family home will not buy 2 houses

Ticking timebomb

Villa05

How can we have a discussion about the property market without discussing the actions of the largest customer, potentially the largest supplier and the largest influencer ie the government through demand, supply and planning policy??

Graham

Are you referring to the hypothetical discussion about future provision of social housing that's unlikely to change in the context of a discussion of the Irish Property Market 2020?

Pelezico

Graham wrote: »

Are you referring to the hypothetical discussion about future provision of social housing that's unlikely to change in the context of a discussion of the Irish Property Market 2020?

It beats the hell out of a discussion about Polish english speaking h abilities.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

How can we have a discussion about the property market without discussing the actions of the largest customer, potentially the largest supplier and the largest influencer ie the government through demand, supply and planning policy??

I think that discussion Needs a thread of its own. Otherwise whole thread becomes a debate on socialist bollo*ology and conspiracy theories. This thread is bad enough with the way some carry on. Pure fantasy at times.

PropQueries

I'm sure I read a few months ago that from last September all sales details to revenue must now be submitted online instead of the old paper based system. Open to correction, but if true, how would this impact on the PPR i.e. should it becoming more up to date?

Claw Hammer

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm sure I read a few months ago that from last September all sales details to revenue must now be submitted online instead of the old paper based system. Open to correction, but if true, how would this impact on the PPR i.e. should it becoming more up to date?

Who knows what you might have read?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Are you referring to the hypothetical discussion about future provision of social housing that's unlikely to change in the context of a discussion of the Irish Property Market 2020?

But the most recent CBRE report on the property market stated the many of the bigger developers have been having discussions with the Government in relation to buying/leasing their units.

This may be one of the primary reasons why the number of homes available for sale in MyHome has actually fallen and why rents haven't dropped as significantly as would have been predicted on Daft etc. i.e. they're not releasing them into the market in the hope of getting some (I would say most) of that extra cash that was allocated to housing in this years budget.

This may have resulted in prices/rents not dropping by as much as predicted so far this year i.e. the Governments policy on the future provision of social housing may actually be causing short-term supply shortages in today's market.

But I do understand that a discussion on how the councils intend to provide for social housing in future is more relevant to the social housing thread.

Cantstandsya

Graham wrote: »

Are you referring to the hypothetical discussion about future provision of social housing that's unlikely to change in the context of a discussion of the Irish Property Market 2020?

What part of this entire discussion isn't hypothetical?
- potential immigration/emigration.
- potential job losses
- potential changes to credit/inflation

Even the level of current supply and the cost of building houses are hypothetical given the conflicting reports.

How hypothetical is too hypothetical?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

But the most recent CBRE report on the property market stated the many of the bigger developers have been having discussions with the Government in relation to buying/leasing their units.

That wasn't what was being discussed.

Graham

Cantstandsya wrote: »

What part of this entire discussion isn't hypothetical?

I'd guess around half.

Cantstandsya wrote: »

How hypothetical is too hypothetical?

Property Market 2020 is the hint.

Mod Note

any further questions about moderation by PM please.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

But the most recent CBRE report on the property market stated the many of the bigger developers have been having discussions with the Government in relation to buying/leasing their units.

This may be one of the primary reasons why the number of homes available for sale in MyHome has actually fallen and why rents haven't dropped as significantly as would have been predicted on Daft etc. i.e. they're not releasing them into the market in the hope of getting some (I would say most) of that extra cash that was allocated to housing in this years budget.

This may have resulted in prices/rents not dropping by as much as predicted so far this year i.e. the Governments policy on the future provision of social housing may actually be causing short-term supply shortages in today's market.

But I do understand that a discussion on how the councils intend to provide for social housing in future is more relevant to the social housing thread.

Do you believe the government is holding up the housing market by buying houses? I cant see that myself.

Pelezico

There is a guy on the saving for a mortgage thread who will net 25k after tax this year. He can save 19k annually but 20k this year because of covid. This is extraordinary discipline and dedication.

I have said previously said that there are some dudes out there saving serious quantities of cash even during the deepest recession of modern times. This must impact the housing market at some level.


I must tell my son about this. He boasts about himself and gf saving 40k between hem this year with bonus as if that is an achievement. This guy puts them to shame.