Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Do you believe the government is holding up the housing market by buying houses? I cant see that myself.

No. More by their dithering. If the bigger developers and small investors are struggling to sell or rent out their units in the current market, they may be currently keeping them vacant while putting in their applications in the hope of selling their units or entering into a long-term lease agreement with the state.

The state probably won't buy or lease properties that are already rented out. This would lead to a short-term reduction in supply of properties entering the market for sale or rent while these applications are going through IMO

fliball123

There seems to be a rise in property selling the ppr graph page gives a small snapshot of the last 5 weeks and week on week property sales are on the up

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/graphs/

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

There seems to be a rise in property selling the ppr graph page gives a small snapshot of the last 5 weeks and week on week property sales are on the up

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/graphs/

But wouldn't the sales agreed over the summer months only be entering the system about now?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But wouldn't the sales agreed over the summer months only be entering the system about now?

Its a rolling target it means that property sales are going up even if it is like you outline the summer months sales data. Anyone know the lag time for actually selling and going up on PPR

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Are you referring to the hypothetical discussion about future provision of social housing that's unlikely to change in the context of a discussion of the Irish Property Market 2020?

If social/affordable housing is purchased on the private market as opposed to delivering your own considerably cheaper, It will impact price for first time buyers and renters today, tomorrow and long into the future

So by default Government policy, in/action is extremely relevant to the direction of the market every year including 2020

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Its a rolling target it means that property sales are going up even if it is like you outline the summer months sales data. Anyone know the lag time for actually selling and going up on PPR

How long is a piece of string? I had been renting a place that went sale agreed in May and didn't have a "sold" date until November in the PPR so it varies hugely.

You've the delay from sale agreed to sold and from sold to on the PPR. I'd guess 4 month's is a fair estimate on average.

Think stamp duty returns are used by some agencies also which have to be filed within a certain time of date sold

brisan

Pelezico wrote: »

There is a guy on the saving for a mortgage thread who will net 25k after tax this year. He can save 19k annually but 20k this year because of covid. This is extraordinary discipline and dedication.

I have said previously said that there are some dudes out there saving serious quantities of cash even during the deepest recession of modern times. This must impact the housing market at some level.


I must tell my son about this. He boasts about himself and gf saving 40k between hem this year with bonus as if that is an achievement. This guy puts them to shame.

Do you believe he can pay rent ,transport ,food (he entertains his friends at home ) clothes Wifi phone bills all out of 100+ EURO
I dont

Pelezico

brisan wrote: »

Do you believe he can pay rent ,transport ,food (he entertains his friends at home ) clothes Wifi phone bills all out of 100+ EURO
I dont

He is subsidised but has dedicated his life to simplicity and austerity . Fair dues to him.

Bubbaclaus

In fairness, if you are living a very simple life and have no mortgage/rent to be paying, 15 euro a day (100pw) seems like plenty to live off.

It wouldn't be exciting, but it is doable.

brisan

Yyhhuuu wrote: »

I expect all outgoing are factored in calculations.

I personally manage to save over 19k per annum pre covid, now post covid approx. 20k
Saved per annum on net after tax income of over 25k. My income should be increasing so I hope to save more. Delighted with what I've saved so far and really enjoy it.

I dont drive, dont drink and dont smoke and dont eat out as it's usually unhealthy salt and fat laden food. I entertain my friends at home.

I hope everyone else achieves their goals. Best of luck

This is the post being discussed
Impossible in my view
Unless he means 35k after tax pay
It is more than 25k after all

Bubbaclaus

Mortgagemisc wrote: »

How does he get to work? Petrol, car, insurance, tax, upkeep, is he getting the bus or bumbing a lift. Is he living at home or sleeping on the streets

Well pre COVID I was walking to work, which is free, so maybe he can do the same. Or cycle.

From memory, i think he fully owns his own property. So no mortgage or rent to be paying.

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

In fairness, if you are living a very simple life and have no mortgage/rent to be paying, 15 euro a day (100pw) seems like plenty to live off.

It wouldn't be exciting, but it is doable.

No phone ,no laptop ,no wi-fi (how does he post here )
No netflix ,no TV no ITunes etc
Clothes ,gas electricity ,transport etc
Unless he is living at his parents and not handing up a penny it is not possible
He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs

It would be a good exercise for the Journals "How I spend my money " feature

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Well pre COVID I was walking to work, which is free, so maybe he can do the same. Or cycle.

From memory, i think he fully owns his own property. So no mortgage or rent to be paying.

Insurance ,Property tax ,utilities ,TV licence .food etc
its no wonder he lives alone
He is not living ,he is existing

Sierra Oscar

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

brisan

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

We Will have to wait till the life support is switched off
When EWSS and PUP are stopped then we see who survives and who does not
Redundancies for the first 10 months of the year are double last years total
Covid will have to be paid off and banks will all those domestic ,commercial ,and mortgage loans paid back
Unemployment figures will rise as has been predicted
Wait till the dust settles and see how much economic scarring we are left with

Pelezico

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

In fairness, if you are living a very simple life and have no mortgage/rent to be paying, 15 euro a day (100pw) seems like plenty to live off.

It wouldn't be exciting, but it is doable.

I did a six month stint in Scotland on a construction project a couple of years ago. I was put up in a fully paid house utilities paid etc and had a company vehicle. I also had an allowance of £150 per week. I never touched salary in six months.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

No phone ,no laptop ,no wi-fi (how does he post here )
No netflix ,no TV no ITunes etc
Clothes ,gas electricity ,transport etc
Unless he is living at his parents and not handing up a penny it is not possible
He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs

It would be a good exercise for the Journals "How I spend my money " feature

He might be saving most of his pay but there is a parent paying most of his bills you can be sure

PropQueries

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

We’re still expected to build c. 20,000 units this year according to Goodbody two weeks ago. Not far off the c. 21,000 units we built in 2019.

Executor sales (non-Covid related) continue to add to supply. Net inward migration must be well below forecasts for the year.

There’s been no such limiting of supply this year that would have had such an unforeseen adverse impact on the market that wouldn’t have been predicted in January pre-Covid IMO

Mic 1972

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

In fact prices have increase over 2020. They are now higher than at the beginning of the year.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

We’re still expected to build c. 20,000 units this year according to Goodbody two weeks ago. Not far off the c. 21,000 units we built in 2019.

Executor sales (non-Covid related) continue to add to supply. Net inward migration must be well below forecasts for the year.

There’s been no such limiting of supply this year that would have had such an unforeseen adverse impact on the market that wouldn’t have been predicted in January pre-Covid IMO

And already Mehole Martin has said as recently as the start of the week 20k will not be built this year. Why would he lie? This stat gives Sinn Fein even more ammunition, Sinn Fein built a very impressive campaign on lack of housing. So why would the leader of the country be so daft as to lie about the houses that will be completed this year. Answer on a postcard .... To say that supply is not being limited is an absolute LIE your a liar Props the supply has gone down by over 5k in the last year. This has been proven to you over and over again. The net outward migration is also down and our numbers are going up anyway with births vs deaths and people coming into an age where they would be getting a mortgage ( i personally proved that to you after giving you a stat on the age demographic from 2019 to counter your 2016 out of date and manipulated stat ) Give it over your starting to sound like a broken record. You state something try to prove it and then get schooled and normally have no response when your proven to be a lair. You wait a month or so before regurgitating the fact again . You must think we are all gold fish with little gold fish memories.

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

We Will have to wait till the life support is switched off
When EWSS and PUP are stopped then we see who survives and who does not
Redundancies for the first 10 months of the year are double last years total
Covid will have to be paid off and banks will all those domestic ,commercial ,and mortgage loans paid back
Unemployment figures will rise as has been predicted
Wait till the dust settles and see how much economic scarring we are left with

I cant see there being a big switch off there will be a slow easing off of financial help already the government has committed the same amount for next year as this. If they stopped the help now the globe would go to pot as everyone is in the same boat cant see Ireland doing a solo run and saying the ECB thanks for those billions at 0% I just dont want them we will fine .. It is like your analogy. The world/Irish economy is on life support due to Covid but we now or will soon have a cure for the patient. Now if your looking after the patient do you switch life support off before the cure can be administered?? NO is the answer. You wait for the cure, you give the cure and then you slowly nurse the patient back to health until their ready to walk out of the hospital. It would be a global/Irish catastrophe to do what your suggesting. Will there be debt afterwards. YES is the answer what is the rate of interest = almost 0. We are adding another 30billion at 0% interest onto 200billion to ensure our economy survives. Considering we pumped nearly twice that into banks in 2008 I dont think its too much to pay. The dust wont be settling for a long time and if inflation kicks in it will wipe some of the debt away.

Reins

brisan wrote: »

(He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs) :D:D

Sierra Oscar

brisan wrote: »

We Will have to wait till the life support is switched off
When EWSS and PUP are stopped then we see who survives and who does not
Redundancies for the first 10 months of the year are double last years total
Covid will have to be paid off and banks will all those domestic ,commercial ,and mortgage loans paid back
Unemployment figures will rise as has been predicted
Wait till the dust settles and see how much economic scarring we are left with

Yeah, I mean I would ordinarily think that this would be the case but to be honest it's looking like the ECB response to Covid-19 will be much more quantitative easing in 2021 and perhaps beyond.

I would be concerned about the impact this will have on the housing market long-term. We already know that quantitative easing as a result of the previous financial crisis has led to a massive increase in the value of property as institutional investors are able to outbid individual buyers. It's no surprise considering interest rates are so low. It's partly why we are where we are now with property prices.

Why do we think further quantitative easing is going to play out any different this time around? Especially when you consider the ECB has signaled that it will keep interest rates at 0% for potentially years, meaning that investment in property is one of the few ways in which you can relatively safely make money on your investment.

I mean the ECB had been eager to start moving away from quantitative easing pre-pandemic partly due to the distorting effect it is having on housing markets all over the EU. Now we have a situation where quantitative easing is at unprecedented levels and concerns for the housing market has gone way down the list of priorities, which is understandable considering the grave threat the pandemic poses to national economies.

However at the end of the day this money that has been created to fight the financial consequences of the pandemic will end up being invested somewhere as it is consolidated by institutional investors in the coming years. I don't see it going into savings accounts. It's very concerning. I actually think that long-term this will be one of the largest societal impacts of the pandemic and it could reshape politics across Europe.

PropQueries wrote: »

We’re still expected to build c. 20,000 units this year according to Goodbody two weeks ago. Not far off the c. 21,000 units we built in 2019.

Executor sales (non-Covid related) continue to add to supply. Net inward migration must be well below forecasts for the year.

There’s been no such limiting of supply this year that would have had such an unforeseen adverse impact on the market that wouldn’t have been predicted in January pre-Covid IMO

Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland reckon it will be around 18,000. Regardless the Housing Agency reckon we need approximately 20,300 new units annually just to keep up with current demand. We aren't going to see the big increase in supply that will lead to a reduction in prices.

thefridge2006

Nice move by Google to look like the nice guys but I think its down to them knowing they wouldn't be able to achieve the rents in mind.

Would anybody know if this is a loophole regarding the rent ceiling and if they rent it to a charity/not for profit company will they be able to take it back in a few years and charge whatever rent they like then and `skip the 4% max increase?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

JimmyVik

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Nice move by Google to look like the nice guys but I think its down to them knowing they wouldn't be able to achieve the rents in mind.

Would anybody know if this is a loophole regarding the rent ceiling and if they rent it to a charity/not for profit company will they be able to take it back in a few years and charge whatever rent they like then and `skip the 4% max increase?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

I believe a lot of people are doing that already.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

But the most recent CBRE report on the property market stated the many of the bigger developers have been having discussions with the Government in relation to buying/leasing their units.

This may be one of the primary reasons why the number of homes available for sale in MyHome has actually fallen and why rents haven't dropped as significantly as would have been predicted on Daft etc. i.e. they're not releasing them into the market in the hope of getting some (I would say most) of that extra cash that was allocated to housing in this years budget.

This may have resulted in prices/rents not dropping by as much as predicted so far this year i.e. the Governments policy on the future provision of social housing may actually be causing short-term supply shortages in today's market.

But I do understand that a discussion on how the councils intend to provide for social housing in future is more relevant to the social housing thread.

Thats been going on for years. It is well know that there are several estates in North Dublin which were taken off the market after about 10 or 20% were sold privately only for it to turn out months later that the council rented the other 80% or so.
And also that the council were approaching developers all over North Dublin and coming offering to lease or buy all of their stock in estates.
IT then spread to other Dublin regions

JimmyVik

brisan wrote: »

No phone ,no laptop ,no wi-fi (how does he post here )
No netflix ,no TV no ITunes etc
Clothes ,gas electricity ,transport etc
Unless he is living at his parents and not handing up a penny it is not possible
He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs

It would be a good exercise for the Journals "How I spend my money " feature

I think im probably close to saving 80% of my after tax income at the moment.
Not by choice. Just nothing to spend it on.
About to close sale on a house very soon, i hope, but that money had been put aside for years.
This year there is just nothing to spend money on.



Next year though, once covid is over im going on a huge spending spree. Going to spend like there is no tomorrow .



If there is even a hint of taxes going up next year though, i'll have to consider that and cut back spending just in case i end up paying higher taxes. I think the government did the right thing this year bot hitting our taxes. It just happened that covid came back with a vengeance. I think if it had not come back we would all be prepared to spend now, given the confidence that there arent tax increases coming up.

JimmyVik

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

I thought we would all be rummaging through skips for scraps at this stage.

Marius34

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Yeah, I mean I would ordinarily think that this would be the case but to be honest it's looking like the ECB response to Covid-19 will be much more quantitative easing in 2021 and perhaps beyond.

I would be concerned about the impact this will have on the housing market long-term. We already know that quantitative easing as a result of the previous financial crisis has led to a massive increase in the value of property as institutional investors are able to outbid individual buyers. It's no surprise considering interest rates are so low. It's partly why we are where we are now with property prices.

Why do we think further quantitative easing is going to play out any different this time around? Especially when you consider the ECB has signaled that it will keep interest rates at 0% for potentially years, meaning that investment in property is one of the few ways in which you can relatively safely make money on your investment.

I mean the ECB had been eager to start moving away from quantitative easing pre-pandemic partly due to the distorting effect it is having on housing markets all over the EU. Now we have a situation where quantitative easing is at unprecedented levels and concerns for the housing market has gone way down the list of priorities, which is understandable considering the grave threat the pandemic poses to national economies.

However at the end of the day this money that has been created to fight the financial consequences of the pandemic will end up being invested somewhere as it is consolidated by institutional investors in the coming years. I don't see it going into savings accounts. It's very concerning. I actually think that long-term this will be one of the largest societal impacts of the pandemic and it could reshape politics across Europe.



Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland reckon it will be around 18,000. Regardless the Housing Agency reckon we need approximately 20,300 new units annually just to keep up with current demand. We aren't going to see the big increase in supply that will lead to a reduction in prices.

That would be the lowest numbers by any of the estimates I have seen, most are within 26k to 40K. Where have you seen those numbers?

beauf

Marius34 wrote: »

That would be the lowest numbers by any of the estimates I have seen, most are within 26k to 40K. Where have you seen those numbers?

Maybe they've been adjusted with an anticipation of lower immigration. Though I wonder if that also has not been fully realised through people not being able to emigrate and others returning to Ireland. Who knows.