Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

sk8board

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Covid-19 will worsen housing affordability, report warns

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/covid-19-will-worsen-housing-affordability-report-warns-1.4416994

Is it starting to hit home a bit more. This report is painting an extremely bleak picture.

The property bulls might want to look away

it’s simply saying that more people will fall outside the central bank borrowing rules and therefore will either rent in-perpetuity, or fall into social housing.

The reality is that nothing in this article will change until the government builds FAR more social housing in order to not rely on private investors to resolve the public housing problem. HAP is going nowhere for many years to come. (As a full time landlord, during covid HAP is a godsend for income security).

And none of that is going to change in the coming years, as we’re building far too few social houses and owner occupy houses.
watch for when supply outstrips demand. Hard to see it in the next decade.

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Covid-19 will worsen housing affordability, report warns

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/covid-19-will-worsen-housing-affordability-report-warns-1.4416994

Is it starting to hit home a bit more. This report is painting an extremely bleak picture.

The property bulls might want to look away

Particularly bleak.

Those property bears, eagerly awaiting the meltdown should probably also look away - most on here are likely mortgage reliant.

Nobody wins in the above, only successive generations confined to rent.

Financesetc.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Government saying today there wont be any room for public sector pay increases in the next round of talks due to the cost of the pandemic. Little reminder to people that this pandemic needs to be paid for. I'd imagine there will austerity down the road as we emerge from the crisis which could impact affordability and house prices.

There will always be a demand for housing. Those that cant afford to rent anymore or pay there mortage still need a place to live hence there will always be a need for housing weather we are flush with money or shy of money.
If tax payers arent buying homes then investors buy for profit and the council will still be buying to meet the demand to house people on the housing list.

ExMachina1000

Cantstandsya wrote: »

That article says prices will drop on 2021.

Post pandemic . 2022 onwards
My bad

thefridge2006

TheSheriff wrote: »

Particularly bleak.

Those property bears, eagerly awaiting the meltdown should probably also look away - most on here are likely mortgage reliant.

Nobody wins in the above, only successive generations confined to rent.

Agreed. There will be a lot of pain in the coming years whether your a bull or a bear. it seems like its going to crash hard

Smouse156

Cyrus wrote: »

this unsurprisingly didnt find any takers at the guts of 900k, down to 850k now, id have thought late 7's is more likely

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/40-mapas-road-dalkey-county-dublin/4468625

At least they’re referring to it as a 4-bed rather than pretending it was a 5-bed.

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Agreed. There will be a lot of pain in the coming years whether your a bull or a bear. it seems like its going to crash hard

No, that's not what the article implies, at all.

thefridge2006

TheSheriff wrote: »

No, that's not what the article implies, at all.

That its going to crash hard? that's my opinion.

That article is certainly flashing a lot of warning lights that would further my beliefs

Graham

thefridge2006 wrote: »

That its going to crash hard? that's my opinion.

That article is certainly flashing a lot of warning lights that would further my beliefs

Are you reading a different article?

The agency expects house prices to decline in 2021 before recovering again in 2022 on the back of a wider post-crisis economic rebound.

Reins

Does anyone know off the top of their head what percentage has Dublin property prices increased by ,looking for Nov '19 to Nov '20?(roughly) thanks

thefridge2006

Graham wrote: »

Are you reading a different article?

Ah sorry, everything will be back to normal in 2022 so.... get real.

Whats the stages of a recession?
Denial ?
Anger ?
Bargaining ?
Acceptance?

cnocbui

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Ah sorry, everything will be back to normal in 2022 so.... get real.

Whats the stages of a recession?
Denial ?
Anger ?
Bargaining ?
Acceptance?

Believing an article's predictions about the future as if it's certainty - get real.

thefridge2006

Reins wrote: »

Does anyone know off the top of their head what percentage has Dublin property prices increased by ,looking for Nov '19 to Nov '20?(roughly) thanks

Roughly house prices fell by 2%

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Ah sorry, everything will be back to normal in 2022 so.... get real.

Whats the stages of a recession?
Denial ?
Anger ?
Bargaining ?
Acceptance?

So now we shouldn't believe the article ? You posted it with a narrative that's it's a sign of a huge crash ?

Your not even making sense to be honest.

Perhaps read and understand the article before linking to it ?

Graham

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Ah sorry, everything will be back to normal in 2022 so.... get real.

Whats the stages of a recession?
Denial ?
Anger ?
Bargaining ?
Acceptance?

You're cherry-picking the 'warning-lights' in the article that support your conclusion but ignoring the actual conclusion?

Gotcha.

thefridge2006

cnocbui wrote: »

Believing an article's predictions about the future as if it's certainty - get real.

You're in between denial and anger it would seem

thefridge2006

TheSheriff wrote: »

So now we shouldn't believe the article ? You posted it with a narrative that's it's a sign of a huge crash ?

Your not even making sense to be honest.

Perhaps read and understand the article before linking to it ?

Is it a sign of prosperity ?

Timing belt

thefridge2006 wrote: »

You're in between denial and anger it would seem

Have you read the actual moody report? They are calling out Southern Europe and UK as the risky areas because of tourism and Brexit. The report is on Europe and not Ireland specifically.

thefridge2006

Timing belt wrote: »

Have you read the actual moody report? They are calling out Southern Europe and UK as the risky areas because of tourism and Brexit. The report is on Europe and not Ireland specifically.

forgot Brexit doesn't affect us here and that we're different, our economy will withstand a world-wide or European issue or major recession....

Timing belt

thefridge2006 wrote: »

forgot Brexit doesn't affect us here and that we're different, our economy will withstand a world-wide or European issue or major recession....

Read the report before predicting a crash they are saying what we all know that tourism retail hospitality are hit hard and this will impact house prices mainly in countries dependent on tourism as it is one of their biggest parts of the economy. Uk is singled out for Brexit and because during 2020 house prices have shot up. The need for more social housing is for people in rent arrears. Add on top of this they are talking about a 3-5% drop...it certainly doesn’t talk about a crash.

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

You're in between denial and anger it would seem

So what point are you at ? Delusion?

Reins

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Roughly house prices fell by 2%

Area I'm looking in has an increase of between 10/15% :eek:

fliball123

Reins wrote: »

Area I'm looking in has an increase of between 10/15% :eek:

Where is that?

Reins

fliball123 wrote: »

Where is that?

Newcastle Co.Dublin

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/41_newcastle_manor_square_newcastle_dublin_22_co_dublin_ireland-425785/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/newcastle/23-newcastle-manor-square-newcastle-dublin-2648282/

Exact same interior just a different front. More expensive one is a terrace, other one is an end terrace.

Nuts!

AssetBacked2

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Covid-19 will worsen housing affordability, report warns

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/covid-19-will-worsen-housing-affordability-report-warns-1.4416994

Is it starting to hit home a bit more. This report is painting an extremely bleak picture.

The property bulls might want to look away

In Paris, it said the average home buyer needed about 23 times the average annual disposable income to purchase a 70sq m property in 2019, compared with 11 times in Madrid.

Dublin had the third-highest ratio, behind Paris and Amsterdam, with home buyers needing 17 times the average annual disposable income to purchase a basic living unit.

Oof, well at least it's not just an Irish problem. How do we make house prices climb down from their dizzying heights in a significant way?

ongarite

Reins wrote: »

Area I'm looking in has an increase of between 10/15% :eek:

Same here, places in looking at in D15 are going 10-15% above asking.
Lack of available property in walk-in condition is driving up prices.

fliball123

ongarite wrote: »

Same here, places in looking at in D15 are going 10-15% above asking.
Lack of available property in walk-in condition is driving up prices.

Are you sure its not just the properties you are looking at both of you. Not saying some might be up 10/15% but not all surely

Reins

ongarite wrote: »

Same here, places in looking at in D15 are going 10-15% above asking.
Lack of available property in walk-in condition is driving up prices.

Am not talking about what increases they're getting at bidding and beyond. These are advertised at prices way up on last years prices. one link I put up had an asking price of 254k and sold 20/12/19 for 258.5k

One year later very similar house around the corner is asking 295k!

Reins

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you sure its not just the properties you are looking at both of you. Not saying some might be up 10/15% but not all surely

It seems to be across the board in the estate I'm interested in and I'm not interested in all that's for sale there.

brisan

Reins wrote: »

Newcastle Co.Dublin

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/41_newcastle_manor_square_newcastle_dublin_22_co_dublin_ireland-425785/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/newcastle/23-newcastle-manor-square-newcastle-dublin-2648282/

Exact same interior just a different front. More expensive one is a terrace, other one is an end terrace.

Nuts!

Is the expensive one the house with the seomra out the back