Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you a link to this? Not that you have been found to be telling porkies on here before props? I have done a quick google on Brexit and financial institutions leaving and the first 4/5 all mention Dublin do I need to keep schooling you?

I see Dublin mentioned in here as well you left it out of the top places they are going

https://www.ft.com/content/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47522347

https://journals.openedition.org/rfcb/1331

JP Morgan

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-39789915

Goldman Sachs

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/investing/brexit-banks-moving-assets/index.html

The date in order of your links: 2016, 2017, 2017, 2017 and your last link January 2019.

I think you need to google where the jobs are really going as of the past 6 months

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

The date in order of your links: 2016, 2017, 2017, 2017 and your last link January 2019.

I think you need to google where the jobs are really going as of the past 6 months

the jobs already moved props, and dublin was a popular location

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/brexit-almost-30-financial-groups-move-operations-from-london-to-dublin-1.4023599

thefridge2006

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/france-demands-digital-tax-payments-from-us-tech-groups-1.4418816

France demands digital tax payments from US tech groups

This is basically France giving out about all the US companies funnelling money back through Ireland. If this happens why would a big company want to settle in Ireland?

Lets be real here, they're here for the tax and the money funnelling and noting else

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The date in order of your links: 2016, 2017, 2017, 2017 and your last link January 2019.

I think you need to google where the jobs are really going as of the past 6 months

OK smarta$$ some stated jobs had ALREADY MOVED in the links I put up but here you go you should engage your brain before you make a comment its getting tiresome

October this year - Dublin mentioned

https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2020/09/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-fs-firms-continue-moving-staff-ahead-of-brexit-deadline

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-lands-highest-share-of-financial-services-firms-exiting-uk-39625874.html

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2020/10/01/584789.htm

https://fortune.com/2020/10/01/banks-trillions-jobs-brexit-move/

Now please kindly admit you were wrong

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, most of the banks in London have chosen Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt etc. in their preparations for leaving the EU...

My company have numerous contracts ongoing and in the pipeline with banks relocating business to Ireland.
There was so much of it that out company had to say we couldnt handle some of it as we didnt have the capacity. Others I assume will get those contracts

AssetBacked2

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you a link to this? Not that you have been found to be telling porkies on here before props? I have done a quick google on Brexit and financial institutions leaving and the first 4/5 all mention Dublin do I need to keep schooling you?

I see Dublin mentioned in here as well you left it out of the top places they are going

https://www.ft.com/content/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47522347

https://journals.openedition.org/rfcb/1331

JP Morgan

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-39789915

Goldman Sachs

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/investing/brexit-banks-moving-assets/index.html

GS didn't come to Dublin, they have gone to Paris for their European hub, as announced this week.

JPM was Frankfurt I think.

But for the US tech companies, Ireland is still the goût du jour. For now, it looks safe, especially with France going after the US big tech companies for 2020 digital taxes owed. That being said, it's not clear if Ireland will continue to sustain such massive corporate tax returns from big US tech companies beyond the next couple of years. Ignoring the pandemic, we have profited hugely and unsustainably from the growth of the big US tech firms which won't be there in a few years to the same extent given the global push to try to spread out the taxes they pay / make them pay more.

IAmTheReign

Reins wrote: »

Why? Because the front is more appealing to you? End Terrace would trump it for me..

I saw the other 2 you linked on the ppr. The 1 that sold for 325k had an attic conversion and a large extension, probably worth 50k in total. I think that's a huge increase in one year in that particular estate. You think it's fair value.me not so much.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-newcastle-manor-square-newcastle-dublin/4364346
The 325k one

You're taking one run down house in the estate and using that a yardstick to measure the value of all the surrounding property. There is far bigger differences between the two houses you're comparing than one having an 'appealing front'. Did you even look at the pictures?

One is turnkey. It's well maintained, has a kitted out kitchen, proper quality flooring and a large outbuilding.

The other is, putting it politely, a 'fixer upper'. It's run down, the fittings scream cheap and and it looks like it hasn't seen a lick of paint in the last 10 years. There's visible water damage in the bathroom, and I don't know what caused the staining in the bedroom but I've seen cleaner carpets in skips. And that's just what you can see from the pics.

Realistically how much do you think fully renovating the place would cost? New flooring, new kitchens, new carpets, new bathroom, and the decking and building out the back? Not to mention potentially structural works from water damage.

Hubertj

thefridge2006 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/france-demands-digital-tax-payments-from-us-tech-groups-1.4418816

France demands digital tax payments from US tech groups

This is basically France giving out about all the US companies funnelling money back through Ireland. If this happens why would a big company want to settle in Ireland?

Lets be real here, they're here for the tax and the money funnelling and noting else

It’s definitely a factor, why wouldn’t it be? To suggest it’s the only reason would indicate a lack on intelligence.

thefridge2006

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s definitely a factor, why wouldn’t it be? To suggest it’s the only reason would indicate a lack on intelligence.

What has Ireland got to offer that other countries in Europe can't other than Tax incentives and money funnelling?

and don't say English speaking....

fliball123

thefridge2006 wrote: »

What has Ireland got to offer that other countries in Europe can't other than Tax incentives and money funnelling?

and don't say English speaking....

English speaking is a big one the logistics of setting up in a country where English is not the first language adds an additional cost. We also have a highly educated work force and we already have a track record of big MNCs successfully opening up here which means the path has been laid for anyone else who wants to do the same.

Roberto_gas

Lads...there is no debate that Dublin did not get the hot cake moves of big companies in the expected quantity due to BREXIT...

I see lots of debate that Dublin benefited...fact is it did not due to lack of infra and housing ! We could have done much better if we had both at par with rest of Europe !

Cyrus

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Lads...there is no debate that Dublin did not get the hot cake moves of big companies in the expected quantity due to BREXIT...

I see lots of debate that Dublin benefited...fact is it did not due to lack of infra and housing ! We could have done much better if we had both at par with rest of Europe !

Some 29 financial services (FS) companies have relocated staff or services from London to Dublin as a result of Brexit, according to a new report. This makes Dublin the most popular relocation site for the sector, with Luxembourg next on 25 and Frankfurt on 24.

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

Some 29 financial services (FS) companies have relocated staff or services from London to Dublin as a result of Brexit, according to a new report. This makes Dublin the most popular relocation site for the sector, with Luxembourg next on 25 and Frankfurt on 24.

I am suspecting there are holdouts that have been waiting for Brexit to have fully happened and be post EU negotiations before they make a move. Likely there are more to come.

Reins

IAmTheReign wrote: »

You're taking one run down house in the estate and using that a yardstick to measure the value of all the surrounding property. There is far bigger differences between the two houses you're comparing than one having an 'appealing front'. Did you even look at the pictures?

One is turnkey. It's well maintained, has a kitted out kitchen, proper quality flooring and a large outbuilding.

The other is, putting it politely, a 'fixer upper'. It's run down, the fittings scream cheap and and it looks like it hasn't seen a lick of paint in the last 10 years. There's visible water damage in the bathroom, and I don't know what caused the staining in the bedroom but I've seen cleaner carpets in skips. And that's just what you can see from the pics.

Realistically how much do you think fully renovating the place would cost? New flooring, new kitchens, new carpets, new bathroom, and the decking and building out the back? Not to mention potentially structural works from water damage.

" The other is, putting it politely, a 'fixer upper'. It's run down, the fittings scream cheap and and it looks like it hasn't seen a lick of paint in the last 10 years. "
This made me laugh! Bar a new bath, the rest wouldn't break the bank to fix up. Not quite the kip you think it is. Doesn't need a new kitchen.

I'm not using "one" house. I'm using the 3 that sold against the one being advertised for 295k. Yes I did look at the pictures as it happens.

Did you bother to look at the pictures of No.30? Minus 50 grand worth of work that house is worth 275k,sold 11 mths ago so yeah still think that estate has seen ridiculous asking prices in one year.

Financesetc.

thefridge2006 wrote: »

What has Ireland got to offer that other countries in Europe can't other than Tax incentives and money funnelling?

and don't say English speaking....

I heard there is something in the water.

cnocbui

Financesetc. wrote: »

I heard there is something in the water.

That's just limescale.

Cantstandsya

fliball123 wrote: »

English speaking is a big one the logistics of setting up in a country where English is not the first language adds an additional cost. We also have a highly educated work force and we already have a track record of big MNCs successfully opening up here which means the path has been laid for anyone else who wants to do the same.

You're talking about multi billion dollar companies that already operate globally. Finding a bilingual executive team to report back to base in the US isn't that hard.

Which EU countries do not have highly educated work forces?

I'm not sure what "a track record of big MNCs opening here" is supposed to mean. Surely all multi national companies have, by definition, experience of successfully opening in different countries?

The thing that Ireland has going for it is low tax. All the rest is PR guff. We do not have a uniquely talented or educated workforce in the EU context and there are scores of executive level professionals who are fluent in English across the continent.

hmmm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

The thing that Ireland has going for it is low tax. All the rest is PR guff. We do not have a uniquely talented or educated workforce in the EU context and there are scores of executive level professionals who are fluent in English across the continent.

It's more than that. Legal system is common law based. Good infrastructure of the types of firms MNCs need, including legal, accounting, audit etc. Reasonably good transport links. Good time zone. Government which wants to do business, and stable political environment (good luck setting up in France or parts of Eastern Europe at the moment). Friendly people. Good telecoms links. Datacentres to choose from.

Cyrus

Cantstandsya wrote: »

there are scores of executive level professionals who are fluent in English across the continent.

you are looking at it far too simplistically,

its not executives that are in short supply, you can fly one in from anywhere, its the people that make up the rest (95%+) of the workforce, on that we have a good cohort of well educated people, and they all speak english.

It matters to the americans.

Financesetc.

Cantstandsya wrote: »

You're talking about multi billion dollar companies that already operate globally. Finding a bilingual executive team to report back to base in the US isn't that hard.

Which EU countries do not have highly educated work forces?

I'm not sure what "a track record of big MNCs opening here" is supposed to mean. Surely all multi national companies have, by definition, experience of successfully opening in different countries?

The thing that Ireland has going for it is low tax. All the rest is PR guff. We do not have a uniquely talented or educated workforce in the EU context and there are scores of executive level professionals who are fluent in English across the continent.

Here here, cheap tax, these big US mutli national phara tech companies are businesses at the end if the day, they are here for profit and profit only. Its big business here for us. While they dont make a whole pile in corporation tax what the companies provide are stable jobs and lots of irish paying tax payers to the tax system (money in) and less people on the dole(money out).
The irish gov will Never entertain increasing corporation tax because every ones knows they (the big companies) will pull the plug and up sticks for pastures new thus Leaving Ireland behind in a very deep dark state of recession.
So ya there here to stay and corp tax wont be increase for the foreseeable.

Bubbaclaus

Wasn't there someone recently claiming that the REITS were dumping property? This news seems to go against that.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-set-to-acquire-stillorgan-residential-portfolio-for-10-6m-1.4418023?mode=amp

JimmyVik

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Lads...there is no debate that Dublin did not get the hot cake moves of big companies in the expected quantity due to BREXIT...

I see lots of debate that Dublin benefited...fact is it did not due to lack of infra and housing ! We could have done much better if we had both at par with rest of Europe !

Now thats the funniest post of the week
Id say you heard that down the pub, if they were open.

fliball123

Cantstandsya wrote: »

You're talking about multi billion dollar companies that already operate globally. Finding a bilingual executive team to report back to base in the US isn't that hard.

Which EU countries do not have highly educated work forces?

I'm not sure what "a track record of big MNCs opening here" is supposed to mean. Surely all multi national companies have, by definition, experience of successfully opening in different countries?

The thing that Ireland has going for it is low tax. All the rest is PR guff. We do not have a uniquely talented or educated workforce in the EU context and there are scores of executive level professionals who are fluent in English across the continent.

Whatever, the fact is the country has shown that it can be done, a company can open a HQ here with relative ease regardless of the size of the company so for any small to mid sized company in the US (or other Non EU counties) thinking of branching into Europe they will definitely look at the path other high profile companies have gone to say otherwise is complete nonsense. You only have to look at Google, Facebook, Twitter among others not to mention the amount of Pharma we have with an operation here, these companies have come to Ireland and are on the make and are seen as dollar signs to those who wish to get their company up there at the same level. You can play it down all you want but having the know how and reassurance that others have successfully done it before is a huge draw.

PropQueries

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Wasn't there someone recently claiming that the REITS were dumping property? This news seems to go against that.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-set-to-acquire-stillorgan-residential-portfolio-for-10-6m-1.4418023?mode=amp

In the same paper, Greystar in apparently putting in a €180 million bid for the 385 units Cairn Homes is building at Griffith Avenue in Marino.

In relation to the Stillorgan purchase, it looks like their buying the 25 remaining apartments that Ires Reit don't own in that development.

Looks like both Greystar and Ires Reit are gearing themselves up to take some or more of that long-term lease agreement money the councils have been splashing around lately.

Link to the Greystar bid for the Griffith Avenue units in the Irish Times is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/greystar-in-180m-bid-for-griffith-avenue-apartment-portfolio-1.4418085

donnaille

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Lads...there is no debate that Dublin did not get the hot cake moves of big companies in the expected quantity due to BREXIT...

I see lots of debate that Dublin benefited...fact is it did not due to lack of infra and housing ! We could have done much better if we had both at par with rest of Europe !

Current evidence doesn't back this argument - see this recent EY article: https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2020/09/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-fs-firms-continue-moving-staff-ahead-of-brexit-deadline

However, Dublin is merely leading for firms considering or have confirmed relocating operations and/or staff to the city 34 in total - it remains to be seen if some of the 34 make sizeable moves.

AssetBacked2

hmmm wrote: »

It's more than that. Legal system is common law based. Good infrastructure of the types of firms MNCs need, including legal, accounting, audit etc. Reasonably good transport links. Good time zone. Government which wants to do business, and stable political environment (good luck setting up in France or parts of Eastern Europe at the moment). Friendly people. Good telecoms links. Datacentres to choose from.

No terror issues with muslims like in other European countries, political stability, neutral stance on matters of conflict, good craic for a few days of board meetings / or coming over as a single, young person for a few years.

Just to add / overlap slightly with that post!

Browney7

PropQueries wrote: »

In the same paper, Greystar in apparently putting in a €180 million bid for the 385 units Cairn Homes is building at Griffith Avenue in Marino.

In relation to the Stillorgan purchase, it looks like their buying the 25 remaining apartments that Ires Reit don't own in that development.

Looks like both Greystar and Ires Reit are gearing themselves up to take some or more of that long-term lease agreement money the councils have been splashing around lately.

Link to the Greystar bid for the Griffith Avenue units in the Irish Times is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/greystar-in-180m-bid-for-griffith-avenue-apartment-portfolio-1.4418085

Yup its all gearing up for the state to become the renter of last resort for these blocks. Its genius from the REITs really - put up the apartments for 2200 a month and get no takers, then approach the council and offer to give a "discount" to 85% of the "market" rent that wasn't being achieved in the first place and secure a 20 year state guaranteed cashflow with upward only reviews.

The council/state spins it is deploying significant funds to alleviate the housing crisis and getting a deal versus the market rent despite it being a woeful waste of taxpayers money in the long run compared to direct ownership. It will be just like the Realis deal in Dundrum all over again

Villa05

Browney7 wrote:

Yup its all gearing up for the state to become the renter of last resort for these blocks. Its genius from the REITs really - put up the apartments for 2200 a month and get no takers, then approach the council and offer to give a "discount" to 85% of the "market" rent that wasn't being achieved in the first place and secure a 20 year state guaranteed cashflow with upward only reviews.

Absolutely yet another screw up from a state that was the largest property owner in the world a mere 8 years ago.

These government(s) redefine stupidity

Timing belt

thefridge2006 wrote: »

What has Ireland got to offer that other countries in Europe can't other than Tax incentives and money funnelling?

and don't say English speaking....

Ireland is not the only jurisdiction in Europe with low tax rates. Look at Nederland lux and some of the Eastern European countries have lower tax. Ireland is easy to do business in and has a educated workforce created especially for the mnc. This is beneficial to the economy and part of the reason we have not seen properly prices drop

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

Early Prediction: CSO Property Price Index to turn positive for 2020 Q4.
Due to new data and this week’s news, I start to think that I was at some extend wrong with my prediction on crisis impact on Residential Property price, but to other direction, than most have thought.
My prediction was 3-5% decrease, but I start to think that there may not be further decrease.

It might be to early to tell, but looking at the PPR data I see first signs that CSO Property price Index may turn positive for 2020 Q4.
In a week or two, it will be clearer, when there will be more data, thus less chance with errors/anomalies.
Here is from my report on PPR data (Its mostly Median price with some adjustment calculation).

Update 1
Another 2.6K properties has been added in the past 2 weeks on PPR. And the signs for Q4 haven't changed. More confidence in likely increase in property price.

Dublin:



Ireland(ex-Dublin):