Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

Reins wrote: »

Props, you get slated on here a lot. I find some of them quite nasty but despite that you never counter act and usually come back with a I do admire your resolve.

Howevers,stating that within 2 years property will be down by 50% is leaving yourself wide open to be ridiculed here.

It didn't even happen that fast in the last financial crash.

Firstly, thanks for the kind remarks. Much appreciated as I don’t receive them much.

Secondly. I’m actually quite serious on the level of drops coming and the speed. While it didn’t happen that fast last time, I believe the major difference this time is that the property market is now effectively controlled by foreign entities who have no real affection for the country outside of realising the most profit at the lowest cost. Nothing wrong with that IMO.

I believe this was proven recently when COVID hit and Blackstone relinquished control of he Blanchardstown Shopping Centre pretty much immediately when they believed there was no further gain to had.

Most of the vulture funds who purchased that €200 billion in business and property loans between 2012 and 2016 bought them for, in many cases, cents on the euro. In many cases, they can now offload the properties they control for as little as 25% of current market prices and still walk away with double their initial investment.

It all depends on how fast they want/need to exit that will decide on how much they sell them for and how fast IMO

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

There has been incredible tolerance with regard to property owners breaching this specific planning aspect.

Do you think this tolerance is finished. I'm not so sure, but I'd imagine revenue would have some interesting data after the pandemic, will be interesting to see if action is taken.

I think people forget that DCC only started beefing up the department to deal with this issue just before COVID hit. They’re now ready to go when tourism does return.

That, in addition to AirBnB now passing on all details of their clients to the Revenue should ensure that compliance will be high once the tourism market returns IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

If you’re willing to pay asking, I would call the EA and say you will pay asking but no more and you need the answer by Friday or you will look elsewhere. Unless you’re incredibly unlucky and someone else falls for his selling technique, he’ll ring and offer it to you. The demand isn’t there so I wouldn’t fall for the sales tactic.

You didn’t mention the asking price or where the property is, but if you’re willing to pay asking, you should also expect the value to fall by c. 50% over the next two years and by much more over the lifetime of your mortgage if your getting one IMO

This should become clear over the next 6 months as the fog of COVID goes away. Demand wasn’t there pre-COVID and COVID has proved a godsend to the EAs covering this part up.

But if you need to buy, you need to buy.

Oh My God please anyone buying or selling please do not take this moron's advice. Prop has been outed as an absolute LIAR on this site time and again Prop give you opinion but do not tell anyone how to live their life. Offer the asking and say they have till Friday haha and they are going to drop by 50% in the next 2 years you have been saying that since the start of the year.

dundrum23

PropQueries wrote: »

How would pharma jobs impact the greystones market? Plus the IDA states that the average salary of their client companies is c. €60k per year.

There’s less than 250k employed in multinationals in Ireland and most would already be homeowners from the 1990’s, 2000’s or would have purchased one the c.100,000 new homes built over the past 10 years.

Most of them are also already homeowners or renting good quality accommodation so I don’t see them having as such a big impact on the South Dublin/ Greystones market as many believe IMO

I’m talking about people with pharma and techie jobs being safe from unemployment and getting lots of money from banks....otherwise how are young couples bidding so high in these bidding wars I’ve experienced? (I’ve seen the competition at viewings and they are young).
I’m talking about South Dublin and Greystones having huge demand and low supply of housing, driving prices way up. Whoever it is, my point is that there is somehow a lot of money out there making it so hard for house hunters like me.

dundrum23

dundrum23 wrote: »

I’m talking about people with pharma and techie jobs being safe from unemployment and getting lots of money from banks....otherwise how are young couples bidding so high in these bidding wars I’ve experienced? (I’ve seen the competition at viewings and they are young).
I’m talking about South Dublin and Greystones having huge demand and low supply of housing, driving prices way up. Whoever it is, my point is that there is somehow a lot of money out there making it so hard for house hunters like me.

I’m simply trying to figure out when will be a good time to get a house. You’re saying 50% price reduction in a short time. The signs are not pointing to that. There’s too much support for the housing market here going against that happening, added to the supply/demand issue. No big crash here 2021. Anyway they say “it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market that counts”. So maybe it’s wise to just get a house in the area you like when you can and forget about the boom bust cycle entirely.

Hubertj

Could be the Russians instead of the British that invade. I think a Russian sub took Fungi whilst doing recon to invade from the west. They will take Kerry first. Then move onto limerick and turn it into a gulag. Tough times ahead.
Property prices will be leat of our worries in a few months.
Although it will mean jobs for everyone which should ensure a soft landing.
Again this is just my opinion but as likely as the rest on here.
Link to article from 1985 about Russian sub sinking in Irish waters.
https://magill.ie/archive/danger-under-irish-sea

In 2015 this happened
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-32333336
Must be linked to property prices.

Again only my opinion. But I have posted links supporting my view.

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

Then you should invest in Cairn Homes. Their share price is still below their IPO price in 2015. Maybe invest some in Hibernian REIT, Glenveagh and IRES REIT. All great value property related investments in Ireland at the moment if what you say is true.

Then maybe invest in BOI (another property related investment) as they’re currently trading at a FIFTH of their value in 2015.

Truth is the real investors know where the property market in ireland is heading as otherwise the above share prices wouldn’t be where they are.

thats not true , REIT,s have never been a gauge of the real market on the ground , they are merely a passive way for investors to own property without having to involve themselves in the traditional tasks associated with owning BTL,s

REIT,s are equities at the end of the day and their share price can be manipulated , all of the irish REIT,s are illiquid in terms of daily volume trade ( especially IRES ) , they will also fall with the rest of the stock market , there is no parallel between the share price of the REIT,s and the real market and never has been , the REIT,s have been a poor investment in ireland since they were launched

its the same in most countries , The huge Vanguard REIT which covers large swathes of the U.S market is no higher today than it was in 2006 despite the boom in Real Estate in much of america

as for the banks , banking is a **** business in ireland as you have no real security when you hand out a mortgage , its a declining sector across europe but is especially lousy in ireland , share price of bank of ireland and AIB tells us absolutely nothing about the property market in this country

Hubertj

dundrum23 wrote: »

I’m simply trying to figure out when will be a good time to get a house. You’re saying 50% price reduction in a short time. The signs are not pointing to that. There’s too much support for the housing market here going against that happening, added to the supply/demand issue. No big crash here 2021. Anyway they say “it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market that counts”. So maybe it’s wise to just get a house in the area you like when you can and forget about the boom bust cycle entirely.

If you’re looking to randomers on boards for advice on making the biggest purchase if your life then don’t buy. This thread is nearly as bad as some of the stuff on Covid. Mad stuff altogether.

Mad_maxx

Timing belt wrote: »

Hungry has a lower tax rate 9% and probably cheaper pay so why are companies not setting up there and instead choosing Ireland?

because Hungary is a dump , rotten with corruption and a pretty unpleasant place even before Orban came to power

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think so without a change of planning permission. Same applies to all the AirBnb units that people think will come back into use once tourism returns.

Most of them can’t (from a legal standpoint), so most will re-enter the long term rental market or be sold which is a significant source of additional supply (c.5,000 in Dublin) coming into the market next year that people don’t appear to be factoring in properly just yet IMO

Another figure and conspiracy theory pulled straight from your sphincter muscle good man props. I forgot to ask you who shot JFK??

Villa05

Is this a discussion boards or shoot the poster that does not fall into line with the group think game

Very valid points raised signalling danger, then the usual suspects line up their rifles

thefridge2006

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this a discussion boards or shoot the poster that does not fall into line with the group think game

Very valid points raised signalling danger, then the usual suspects line up their rifles

I was just going to post the same thing. Props makes some brilliant points and backs them up.

The Mods on this site don't agree with him and argue with him all the time while allow personal attacks from others. If the shoe was on the other foot he'd be site banned

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this a discussion boards or shoot the poster that does not fall into line with the group think game

Very valid points raised signalling danger, then the usual suspects line up their rifles

I’d say it’s a thread where you can post anything you like whether it is fact,, fiction or opinion. Those opinions should be open to debate scrutiny and ridicule. For example, some people believe property prices will not fall or are not over valued, some believe the state can build houses at scale without making a mess of it, other believe Sinn Fein are correct in their theories, some think property prices will fall 50% in 2 years and 75% within 5 years. Some suggest you should take advice from randomers on purchasing a property. Some even pipe on about the last recession.

Another poster (plopqueries) suggested the government will use the proposed reform of direct provision as a method to keep property prices inflated. Now you tell me how should someone react to such a statement? Plausible? Racist? Xenophobic? Idiotic? Trolling? What do you expect on the internet?

Cantstandsya

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I was just going to post the same thing. Props makes some brilliant points and backs them up.

The Mods on this site don't agree with him and argue with him all the time while allow personal attacks from others. If the shoe was on the other foot he'd be site banned

I think Propqueries is a great example of how to engage in a civil discussion. I have never seen him rise to the numerous personal attacks he receives in this thread.

dor843088

fliball123 wrote: »

Another figure and conspiracy theory pulled straight from your sphincter muscle good man props. I forgot to ask you who shot JFK??

It's a shame boards.ie is full of nonsense posts like this.

Hubertj

dor843088 wrote: »

It's a shame boards.ie is full of nonsense posts like this.

You should check out the threads on Covid.

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Is this a discussion boards or shoot the poster that does not fall into line with the group think game

Very valid points raised signalling danger, then the usual suspects line up their rifles

This is a thread full of property bears who don’t like being disagreed with not the opposite

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

This is a thread full of property bears who don’t like being disagreed with not the opposite

LOL

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I was just going to post the same thing. Props makes some brilliant points and backs them up.

The Mods on this site don't agree with him and argue with him all the time while allow personal attacks from others. If the shoe was on the other foot he'd be site banned

He makes things up and selectively picks parts of articles that appear to support his theses

He has been right about the square root of nothing so far.

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

LOL

Have a look and see who the most frequent posters are when you are finished being so articulate .

L1011

Hubertj - I would strongly suggest you take a few days off from this thread if you find the contents so vexing and cannot contribute sensibly (post at 19:41 above does not meet any standards at all). If it requires software enforcement (read: a ban) to do this, that is what will have to be done. You were already specifically warned not to interact with PropQueries and take it to PM

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

Have a look and see who the most frequent posters are when you are finished being so articulate .

what has the most frequent posters got to do with what you said? if you're going to be condescending maybe have a decent argument ready

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

He makes things up and selectively picks parts of articles that appear to support his theses

Ahh the fine art of marketing. Its always prudent to read the fine print and between the lines.
Media played a big part in the last bubble. They did not suddenly change their ways.
You have to dig deep to get the full picture of what is happening Buying a house is a 30 year commitment.

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

what has the most frequent posters got to do with what you said? if you're going to be condescending maybe have a decent argument ready

If you don’t understand the point there’s hardly any point engaging any further

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Ahh the fine art of marketing. Its always prudent to read the fine print and between the lines.
Media played a big part in the last bubble. They did not suddenly change their ways.
You have to dig deep to get the full picture of what is happening Buying a house is a 30 year commitment.

Yeah they are all out to get us at least we have one sage to tell us property prices will drop 50 percent in 2 years

three putt

Hubertj wrote: »

Could be the Russians instead of the British that invade. I think a Russian sub took Fungi whilst doing recon to invade from the west. They will take Kerry first. Then move onto limerick and turn it into a gulag. Tough times ahead.
Property prices will be leat of our worries in a few months.
Although it will mean jobs for everyone which should ensure a soft landing.
Again this is just my opinion but as likely as the rest on here.
Link to article from 1985 about Russian sub sinking in Irish waters.
https://magill.ie/archive/danger-under-irish-sea

In 2015 this happened
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-32333336
Must be linked to property prices.

Again only my opinion. But I have posted links supporting my view.

LOL

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

This is a thread full of property bears who don’t like being disagreed with not the opposite

Your point is nonsense...... saying the above is plausible because of who the main contributors in this thread are?

WTF????

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Your point is nonsense...... saying the above is plausible because of who the main contributors in this thread are?

WTF????

Well at least you finally got it

There are more bearish posts than anything else on this thread .

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

Well at least you finally got it

There are more bearish posts than anything else on this thread .

Get what?

your silly nonsensical theory that the majority of posters here are bears and that somehow means that they all don't like to be disagreed with....

You'd want to improve your standard of posts or stay away from the bottle

L1011

You two can take it to PM also