Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus

beauf wrote: »

I think to myself I can fix the old house but I can't fix the lack of garden.

people also underestimate the costs of:

a) extending an old property (many 4 bed houses from the 50s and 60s are very small by modern standards)

and b) retrofitting the existing house while they are at it,

which can make the older house uneconomic.

beauf

Cyrus wrote: »

people also underestimate the costs of:

a) extending an old property (many 4 bed houses from the 50s and 60s are very small by modern standards)

and b) retrofitting the existing house while they are at it,

which can make the older house uneconomic.

Agreed. Well thats the dilemma. If you buy a house for 400~500 and you spend 80~150 and even 200 on it. You're now competing with 600~700 houses.

I agree with you about the size of the rooms also. But also the shape. Older houses tend to have a lot of narrow rectangular rooms, with a window at the narrow end. Whereas people want a squarer room these day preferably with as much glass in it as is affordable.

PropQueries

Interested Observer wrote: »

What's 'the market' here? Ranelagh is obviously a very sought after area to live, the houses are aimed at a very small corner of it, I don't think there's too much to read into.

But is there a market? It appears to me that many developers over the past couple of years saw that Cairn Homes were asking c. €1.6 million for their terraced units in Marianella and said me too. Last time I walked down there, there were still a few empty out of the 12 units and I think they've been available for sale for about the last three years.

Raoul

beauf wrote: »

Agreed. Well thats the dilemma. If you buy a house for 400~500 and you spend 80~150 and even 200 on it. You're now competing with 600~700 houses.

I agree with you about the size of the rooms also. But also the shape. Older houses tend to have a lot of narrow rectangular rooms, with a window at the narrow end. Whereas people want a squarer room these day preferably with as much glass in it as is affordable.

Yeah, why is this?

Ursabear

Throwback to the window tax? Bad insulation in the past, no double glazing? Would love as much light coming in , in my dream square rooms XD

brisan

beauf wrote: »

What's that regulation?

http://www.pleanala.ie/casenum/303146.htm

d) Revised drawings for Blocks 02 and 03 shall be submitted which
shall ensure that all balconies meet the minimum standards
required, as set out in the “Sustainable Urban Housing: Design
Standards for New Apartments Guidelines for Planning
Authorities” issued by the Department of Housing, Planning and
Local Government in March 2018.

rivate Open Space - Houses
7.6.16. I note the Dublin City Development Plan states a minimum standard of 10sqm of
private open space per bedspace should normally be applied. Generally, up to 60-
70sqm of rear garden area is considered sufficient for houses in the city.
7.6.17. Proposed dwelling 1 has a garden of 68sqm; no. 2 has 45sqm; no. 3 has 41sqm;
and no. 4 has 45sqm. The required minimum private open space for dwellings 2-4,
which have 5 bedspaces per dwelling, falls below the minimum requirement of
50sqm. I further note that the attic level has been designed to be able to cater for a
habitable room, which could result in an additional 2 bedspaces. It is my view, as
noted above, that dwellings 1-4 should be omitted from the development for reasons
relating to the impact on the convent building, impact on 3 St. Brigid’s Road and also
as discussed here due to the substandard provision of private open space.
7.6.18. I note proposed dwellings 5-8 provide for 54sqm and above. The dwellings meet the
minimum private open space standards for the number of bed spaces shown.
However, given the restricted site sizes relating to dwellings 5-8, should the Board
be minded to grant permission and retain these dwellings, it would be reasonable to
include a condition removing exempt development provisions in this instance to
ensure impacts of any future extension above what is permitted is fully considered,
particularly with regard to the potential for additional accommodation at attic level
already designed into the dwellings.


Thats them there

beauf

brisan wrote: »

http://www.pleanala.ie/casenum/303146.htm

What am I meant to do with that? Trawled through one and I'm not sure what I'm meant to be seeing.

brisan

beauf wrote: »

What am I meant to do with that? Trawled through one and I'm not sure what I'm meant to be seeing.

I edited the post and copied the relevant parts
More in there about car parking limited to one per house and not being able to sell rent lease or otherwise dispose of a car parking space
Stuff I’d never seen before
I just copied the pieces about private outside space

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

But is there a market? It appears to me that many developers over the past couple of years saw that Cairn Homes were asking c. €1.6 million for their terraced units in Marianella and said me too. Last time I walked down there, there were still a few empty out of the 12 units and I think they've been available for sale for about the last three years.

only one way to find out isnt there,

also you have to remember a small complex like this with a limited number of units (and i assume no social) is going to appeal more than a larger development like marianella which has apartments, social, renters etc etc.

brisan

Enderly in Killiney /Dalkeith also has had problems shifting the last of the 18 units
At that price point buyers are scarce and can afford to be choosy

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

only one way to find out isnt there,

also you have to remember a small complex like this with a limited number of units (and i assume no social) is going to appeal more than a larger development like marianella which has apartments, social, renters etc etc.

Good point on the social housing element but I think the Marianella houses weren't selling prior to this becoming common knowledge.

Last year they were blaming Brexit. This year they're blaming covid. Maybe, just maybe the demand was never there. We're not London or New York by any stretch of the imagination.

But, as you said, time will tell in relation to these units. But, given how much they paid per site, how much do you reckon they would have to sell them for to break even?

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Enderly in Killiney /Dalkeith also has had problems shifting the last of the 18 units
At that price point buyers are scarce and can afford to be choosy

yes exactly, circa 10 buyers not a problem generally but once you go above that the pool is shallow and they have plenty of other options, generally if the developer is pricing is ambitious the last few units take the most time to shift.

PropQueries

Interesting one here. The Department of Education has put plans for five new primary schools on hold as the expected housing development as had been predicted in 2018 had not taken place which now means the existing schools in the areas have sufficient capacity.

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/plans-for-five-new-primary-schools-put-on-hold-39809142.html

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point on the social housing element but I think the Marianella houses weren't selling prior to this becoming common knowledge.

Last year they were blaming Brexit. This year they're blaming covid. Maybe, just maybe the demand was never there. We're not London or New York by any stretch of the imagination.

But, as you said, time will tell in relation to these units. But, given how much they paid per site, how much do you reckon they would have to sell them for to break even?

it wouldnt have needed to be common knowledge though, it was part of the planning and the first question a potential purchaser would have asked.

also houses with apartments are always less desirable, the estates tend to have parking issues for one.

re those units id imagine break even is over 1m probably close to 1.2m on average.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting one here. The Department of Education has put plans for five new primary schools on hold as the expected housing development as had been predicted in 2018 had not taken place which now means the existing schools in the areas have sufficient capacity.

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/plans-for-five-new-primary-schools-put-on-hold-39809142.html

Actual quote from article:
‘The Department of Education said they were being postponed for a range of reasons, including the fact that planned housing development had not yet materialised at levels expected in 2018.’

Marius34

Timing belt wrote: »

End of November Is my prediction for a stock market crash

Marius34 wrote: »

You maid a mistake by posting this.
Because I will remind you this :-)
Hope you will not disappear, as most guys who predicting crash with certainty disappear... :-)

A kind reminder
Down Jones is up from 28,210(21 Oct) to 29,638(today)

Again Stock Market is not something we can predict. Although Property Market it's possible to some extent.

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

A kind reminder
Down Jones is up from 28,210(21 Oct) to 29,638(today)

Again Stock Market is not something we can predict. Although Property Market it's possible to some extent.

I knew you would post...timing might be out a couple of weeks as expected more lockdowns state side by now. But will admit will probably finish the year on a rally now but still think that market has a V shaped recovery priced in. Also thought house prices would be down 5-10% by now. Would be interesting from your model to know the impact of the htb changes

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

I knew you would post...timing might be out a couple of weeks as expected more lockdowns state side by now. But will admit will probably finish the year on a rally now but still think that market has a V shaped recovery priced in. Also thought house prices would be down 5-10% by now. Would be interesting from your model to know the impact of the htb changes

out by a few weeks so when do you think the crash will happen now?

Marius34

Timing belt wrote: »

I knew you would post...timing might be out a couple of weeks as expected more lockdowns state side by now. But will admit will probably finish the year on a rally now but still think that market has a V shaped recovery priced in. Also thought house prices would be down 5-10% by now. Would be interesting from your model to know the impact of the htb changes

I think HTB change has direct short term impact on new builds price increase of 5k-10k. And 0-5k on second hand properties.

Timing belt

fliball123 wrote: »

out by a few weeks so when do you think the crash will happen now?

I thought it we would have seen a correction in the Dow by now of 10-20% but it hasn’t happened yet and normally markets rally at the end of the year so not sure when we will see it now. Probably feb when results start coming through and we see the revised year end provisions by the banks.

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

I think HTB change has direct short term impact on new builds price increase of 5k-10k. And 0-5k on second hand properties.

That seems about right

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

I thought it we would have seen a correction by now of 10-20% but it hasn’t happened yet and normally markets rally at the end of the year so not sure when we will see it now. Probably feb when results start coming through and we see the revised year end provisions by the banks.

Well fair play you are one of the few who had said we would see a drop but it didnt happen and being honest I thought we would be about 5% by now as well

Marcusm

Cyrus wrote: »

Let’s see if they sell but I wouldn’t be surprised.

It’s represents a very small portion of the market. There aren’t many new builds in these areas.

I too will be interested to see how they fare. I can see the attraction of a new build A rated house in a central location with good transport links. (Full disclosure, I live 1.5 streets away, in a late Victorian 3 storey.). However, access is via a tight unattractive lane way with an old garage (store for a nearby shop) and a terrace of 1990s news style houses designed by a blind person. The immediate kerb appeal gets a bit of a shock when you go for your first visit (not shown on pictures). Over time, I think t could be a nice little development but I would worry about the build up of cars, especially as kids become teenagers.

three putt

Cyrus wrote: »

yes exactly, circa 10 buyers not a problem generally but once you go above that the pool is shallow and they have plenty of other options, generally if the developer is pricing is ambitious the last few units take the most time to shift.

All the houses in the new development in Prospect Hill, Blackrock seem to have been sold (all post Covid). Prices were in the 950k - €1.1m range. Few appearing on the price register, seems like all sold at - or very close to - listing prices.

Sweet.Science

So another house that's been on the market for 2 months or so . Im the only bidder yet the seller won't accept

Does't feel right to be bidding against myself. The market isn't dictating the value like the cliche its the seller

I'll probably move on. Again

fliball123

Looks like Demand is outstripping supply

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808


It also looks like we are looking to borrow more money

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/average-mortgage-approval-value-up-9pc-39688165.html

Reversal

fliball123 wrote: »

Looks like Demand is outstripping supply

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-surged-in-october-to-record-level-1.4423808


It also looks like we are looking to borrow more money

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/average-mortgage-approval-value-up-9pc-39688165.html

How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

"mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

three putt

Sweet.Science wrote: »

So another house that's been on the market for 2 months or so . Im the only bidder yet the seller won't accept

Does't feel right to be bidding against myself. The market isn't dictating the value like the cliche its the seller

I'll probably move on. Again

The seller cannot dictate prices. They can take the risk/gamble that they will find a higher bidder, but that is their risk.
Ultimately, the market (i.e. the seller and buyer) will dictate the price.
Seller might regret not entertaining your bid!
And they might not.

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

How does the year as a whole compare? Considering lockdown effects will have compressed mortgage approvals into the months brokers and banks are actually open.

"mortgage approvals are down by 19 per cent in volume terms and 14 per cent in value terms in the first ten months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019"

So despite the spin, there are less mortgage approved buyers out there than there was in 2019.

I didnt spin it in anyway I am just showing a link to show that demand is ramping up - October the busiest month on record since 2011 for mortgage approvals..Year on year is not a valid comparison anymore as this year is a complete anomaly with regards to dealing with covid

Cyrus

Marcusm wrote: »

I too will be interested to see how they fare. I can see the attraction of a new build A rated house in a central location with good transport links. (Full disclosure, I live 1.5 streets away, in a late Victorian 3 storey.). However, access is via a tight unattractive lane way with an old garage (store for a nearby shop) and a terrace of 1990s news style houses designed by a blind person. The immediate kerb appeal gets a bit of a shock when you go for your first visit (not shown on pictures). Over time, I think t could be a nice little development but I would worry about the build up of cars, especially as kids become teenagers.

paddy mckillens son built 4 houses in blackrock against a similar backdrop, and it put me right off them if im honest!