Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Marcusm

Cyrus wrote: »

yes, its linked to the stamp duty return so whatever the time frame around that is, i think its 4 weeks.

the Residential Property Price Register is produced by the Property Services Regulatory Authority (PSRA) pursuant to section 86 of the Property Services (Regulation) Act 2011. It includes Date of Sale, Price and Address of all residential properties purchased in Ireland since the 1st January 2010, as declared to the Revenue Commissioners for stamp duty purposes.

so 4 weeks after the whole sale procedure closes, could be 4 months after sale agreed at that rate.

Plus that’s the date for payment of the stamp, actually uploading the returns and parsing the data for the register might add on time now.

Marcusm

PropQueries wrote: »

I thought this was a Irish Property Market thread and not a covid thread. And, yes, to me, AIB "planning to vacate a further three of its six remaining Dublin head office locations" is new news to me.

Those were all identified ages ago. Consolidation at Sandyford and Heuston IIRC. The Molesworth St office is quite small but the exec offices are very large.

Marcusm

In other property related news, I completed on a property today but not in Ireland!

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

I don't see much evidence of downsizing so far. Not with our bizarre concept of the 'foreva' home.

They’ll either downsize or die. That is one thing we can be certain of.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

People will always need somewhere to live and weather that's buying , renting or being housed on the social it means that there is a drain on supply which is then further depleted when you add in REITS who are making a nice return on investment. Births have outpaced deaths in this country for the the last 100 years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

We are also seeing a net migration inward to Ireland for the last 4/5 years. So while babyboomers may be dying or downsizing there are a sh1t load of snowflakes and Millennial waiting to get on the ladder.

As for paying a price over the average or median. Look at the likes of New York, London, Paris and other major/captial cities throughout the world they have historically come with a premium so Dublin is not alone in this regard. People on or under the average wage and if WFH is going to be the new norm there are over 5k properties in the country on sale for under 200k currently on myhome. As for people wanting a price for their property if you don't want to pay it you don't have to but at the same time if you offer a lesser sum the seller does not have to accept. So there is no appetite from the sellers to sell at what they see as a discount

I think you missed the point of my post.

Which, oddly enough, was exactly the point of my post.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

They’ll either downsize or die. That is one thing we can be certain of.

Probably not enough of either in a short enough timespan to make the blindest bit of difference to the property market.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

Probably not enough of either in a short enough timespan to make the blindest bit of difference to the property market.

Agreed, certainly not enough to remain OT in this particular thread.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Probably not enough of either in a short enough timespan to make the blindest bit of difference to the property market.

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

Is our population shrinking ?

And why would they mostly be located in prime locations ?

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

A neighbor died 3 years ago. Nice big house. his son in his 40s and his 2 daughters in their 30s, one with a husband, were living with him. All had emigrated and come back over the years.
The married daughter ended up buying the rest of them out and they moved out, presumably to two separate dwellings.


Another neighbors wife died last year. They have 2 sons and a daughter in their late 30s living in the house with the father now, who is very sick now and probably hasnt too long left. I assume something similar will happen there. None are married so they might just sell the house and scatter.



People dying can have different results on the property market.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, there were c. 30,000 deaths last year. After new builds, probate sales are the biggest part of the supply of housing re-entering the market each year and will be increasing every year going forward. I'm surprised that there's not more attention or research put into it. They are probably the most important from a buyers perspective as they would be mostly located in prime locations IMO

huh



Our death rates are going to increase every year, permanently?

People in prime locations are more likely to die?

I would assume death rates last year were largely the same as every other year. I'd also assume we'll keep making new people to replace those that have passed.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Is our population shrinking ?

And why would they mostly be located in prime locations ?

Well, the central bank last December put the demand for new build housing at 18,000 each year between 2020 and 2030 due to natural population growth so the population is not increasing at the levels some people appear to suggest. As you know, I think that's a significant over-estimate of the level of demand for new build homes.

In relation to prime locations, I would assume cities and towns have grown outwards and not inwards over the years. Therefore, the people who bought all those houses in the estates decades ago that were basically considered another town at the time e.g. Cabra etc. are now considered prime locations as they die off.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

huh



Our death rates are going to increase every year, permanently?

People in prime locations are more likely to die?

I would assume death rates last year were largely the same as every other year. I'd also assume we'll keep making new people to replace those that have passed.

According to the Irish Times last month for 2019:

"Irish birth rate continues to fall amid sustained increase in deaths"

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-birth-rate-continues-to-fall-amid-sustained-increase-in-deaths-1.4391685?

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times last month for 2019:

"Irish birth rate continues to fall amid sustained increase in deaths"

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-birth-rate-continues-to-fall-amid-sustained-increase-in-deaths-1.4391685?

According to article population grew by 27k in 2019. This is just looking at registered births v registered deaths.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

According to article population grew by 27k in 2019. This is just looking at registered births v registered deaths.

And we built c. 21,000 residential units in 2019. At an average of 3 persons to a home (one couple and one child), that's enough new built housing for c. 60,000 persons.

Marcusm

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the central bank last December put the demand for new build housing at 18,000 each year between 2020 and 2030 due to natural population growth so the population is not increasing at the levels some people appear to suggest. As you know, I think that's a significant over-estimate of the level of demand for new build homes.

In relation to prime locations, I would assume cities and towns have grown outwards and not inwards over the years. Therefore, the people who bought all those houses in the estates decades ago that were basically considered another town at the time e.g. Cabra etc. are now considered prime locations as they die off.

Cabra’s got the potential to be nice but the world would have to spin on another axis before it was what would be regarded as a prime location, ie one the most desirable, most highly sought after locations in the city.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to prime locations, I would assume cities and towns have grown outwards and not inwards over the years. Therefore, the people who bought all those houses in the estates decades ago that were basically considered another town at the time e.g. Cabra etc. are now considered prime locations as they die off.

Indeed. It's just common sense to assume that the age demographic of the priciest locations is higher than that of the cheapest.

PropQueries

Marcusm wrote: »

Cabra’s got the potential to be nice but the world would have to spin on another axis before it was what would be regarded as a prime location, ie one the most desirable, most highly sought after locations in the city.

Just replace Cabra with similar era estates on the south side. Same principle applies IMO

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed. It's just common sense to assume that the age demographic of the priciest locations is higher than that of the cheapest.

Yes, and as all these homes begin to re-enter supply in significant numbers, they make all those new build homes located in the far off suburbs looks like less and less value by the year.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

And we built c. 21,000 residential units in 2019. At an average of 3 persons to a home (one couple and one child), that's enough new built housing for c. 60,000 persons.

That is still short based on the following cso data.
https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

Not to even mention the under supply from prior years

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

That is still short based on the following cso data.
https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

Not to even mention the under supply from prior years

That's the problem in relation to the projections for housing demand going forward. It's primarily based on net inward migration remaining at 2018 levels of c. 30,000 per year out to 2030.

That will only happen if we continue to create jobs at such levels each year between 2020 and 2030 to encourage in such a level of inward net migration. Is that possible? I don't believe so. The state can't afford to keep hiring at significant levels. I don't believe multinationals will continue adding jobs at these type of levels either.

Basically most of the future projections on demand for housing are based on what side of the debate one is on in relation to continued net inward migration IMO

IMO there may be net outward migration over the coming years instead of net inward migration and that would turn all projections for housing demand on their head IMO

You already know my belief on the under-supply from previous years i.e. there was none.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

And we built c. 21,000 residential units in 2019. At an average of 3 persons to a home (one couple and one child), that's enough new built housing for c. 60,000 persons.

how many more times does this have to be pointed out to you that at no point in the last 100 has our birth rate been outpaced by our death rate

There is deaths and birth rates since they were recorded in the country
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland


Theres Q1 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticsfirstquarter2020/

Theres Q2 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticssecondquarter2020/

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

how many more times does this have to be pointed out to you that at no point in the last 100 has our birth rate been outpaced by our death rate

There is deaths and birth rates since they were recorded in the country
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland


Theres Q1 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticsfirstquarter2020/

Theres Q2 2020
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticssecondquarter2020/

Never said death rate outpaced birth rate. Every time a house enters probate it's likely that the house occupied one person at that time. Once that person passes away and it re-enters the market, it is generally re-occupied by an average of 3 persons (a couple and one child). Probate sales matter more than people realise.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

That's the problem in relation to the projections for housing demand going forward. It's primarily based on net inward migration remaining at 2018 levels of c. 30,000 per year out to 2030.

That will only happen if we continue to create jobs at such levels each year between 2020 and 2030 to encourage in such a level of inward net migration. Is that possible? I don't believe so. The state can't afford to keep hiring at significant levels. I don't believe multinationals will continue adding jobs at these type of levels either.

Basically most of the future projections on demand for housing are based on what side of the debate one is on in relation to continued net inward migration IMO

IMO there may be net outward migration over the coming years instead of net inward migration and that would turn all projections for housing demand on their head IMO

You already know my belief on the under-supply from previous years i.e. there was none.

That is all it is, your belief as the facts, figures and stats would suggest that your belief is Baloney

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Never said death rate outpaced birth rate. Every time a house enters probate it's likely that the house occupied one person at that time. Once that person passes away and it re-enters the market, it is generally re-occupied by 3 persons (a couple and one child). Probate sales matter more than people realise.

And I have put up the natural increase year on year for the last 100 odd years and there are in the region of the 10s of 1000s of births over deaths and the population is going up year on year. Even this year with all the corona related deaths, births for the first 2 quarters outpaced deaths. If you cant see that we need more housing then there is no helping you. Remember that house would of housed 3 people in your amazing 3 person occupies a home at one stage as well. So its a zero sum game

thefridge2006

rks wrote: »

All the rentals have disappeared. Rents are going up again.

Same with property prices, they are on the up and there's hardly any good properties to buy.

Those who were waiting for the crash or even good discounts will be really disappointed.

Is that so?????

How much are you trying to rent/ sell your property for RSK?

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

That's the problem in relation to the projections for housing demand going forward. It's primarily based on net inward migration remaining at 2018 levels of c. 30,000 per year out to 2030.

That will only happen if we continue to create jobs at such levels each year between 2020 and 2030 to encourage in such a level of inward net migration. Is that possible? I don't believe so. The state can't afford to keep hiring at significant levels. I don't believe multinationals will continue adding jobs at these type of levels either.

Basically most of the future projections on demand for housing are based on what side of the debate one is on in relation to continued net inward migration IMO

IMO there may be net outward migration over the coming years instead of net inward migration and that would turn all projections for housing demand on their head IMO

You already know my belief on the under-supply from previous years i.e. there was none.

Did you ever consider that these immigrants help create jobs for Irish people. The majority all have 3rd level education and in employment and adding to the countries economy. I personally think we would see much higher immigration if there wasn’t such a housing shortage and crazy rents. Lack of housing was one of the main factors in a smaller % share of companies that migrated with Brexit.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, and as all these homes begin to re-enter supply in significant numbers, they make all those new build homes located in the far off suburbs looks like less and less value by the year.

Which is it ? That people will leave the cities in their droves ? Or that demand for locations close to the City centre will strengthen and further out suburbs will weaken ? I’m not sure what tack you are taking today .

Will dalkey and Killiney nose dive due to the fact they are out from the city ?

Will people flock to buy old draughty poorly maintained exectutor sale houses that need 100s of thousands spend on them ? Ignoring new builds ?

You change the angle of attack so much it’s hard to keep up .

enricoh

Timing belt wrote: »

Did you ever consider that these immigrants help create jobs for Irish people. The majority all have 3rd level education and in employment and adding to the countries economy. I personally think we would see much higher immigration if there wasn’t such a housing shortage and crazy rents. Lack of housing was one of the main factors in a smaller % share of companies that migrated with Brexit.

They are certainly creating extra jobs for our housing departments anyway, degrees or no degrees.
And they'll sustain the 'housing crisis'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

Timing belt

enricoh wrote: »

They are certainly creating extra jobs for our housing departments anyway, degrees or no degrees.
And they'll sustain the 'housing crisis'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/huge-scale-of-immigration-is-making-our-housing-crisis-worse-35498057.html
Last year, I decided to ask the Department of Social Protection what percentage of rent supplement was paid out to non-Irish EU nationals, and non-EU nationals.

As at February of last year, the figure was 35pc. This is a remarkable total. Remember, 17pc of the population is "foreign-born", so immigrants are over-represented in the figures by two to one.

With so many Irish living abroad and returning with families the percentage of ‘foreign born’ will always be higher that’s not to say they are not irish.