Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Ah. Just figured out how some here get access to this PPR data in excel format on their website

Ok.

In the year to 27/11/2019, 16,176 properties were recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

In the year to 27/11/2020, 11,693 properties are recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

Construction levels and potential probate sales are at similar levels to 2019 i.e. additional housing supply entering the market is basically the same as the levels in 2019, even if it's not currently being advertised.

I have this funny feeling that Covid has been a godsend to EAs in covering up the lack of demand relative to supply.

The demand is there especially people that are renting. The supply of affordable houses is not when you bring into play desirable locations the supply gets thinner again and the effect of covid has meant that there is a cohort that have been able to save a deposit which has increased the demand. The HTB has then helped push the prices up which gives the EAs room to spin which makes people stretch further to get on the property ladder. Is this sustainable or is just a short term effect before house prices go back to a flat line. At the end of the day unless there is an increase in wages or disposable income then we shouldn’t be seeing a price rise... maybe wfh has provided this increase in disposable income.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

im sure you have been told a dozen times that the information to 27/11/2019 is complete but the information to 27/11/2020 isnt, you will have to look at it in 6-8 weeks time.

Good point. But the Jan-Feb figures should provide some indication of the level of demand in the months prior to covid.

Jan-Feb 2019: 2423

Jan-Feb 2020: 2274

So, down 149 in Dublin year on year for those two months pre-covid. Hardly evidence of all that pent up demand we were reading about just before covid?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. But the Jan-Feb figures should provide some indication of the level of demand in the months prior to covid.

Jan-Feb 2019: 2423

Jan-Feb 2020: 2274

So, down 149 in Dublin year on year for those two months pre-covid. Hardly evidence of all that pent up demand we were reading about just before covid?

indeed, one could also argue that properties that were closing before lock down would have closed later than they should have.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

indeed, one could also argue that properties that were closing before lock down would have closed later than they should have.

But wouldn't the Jan/Feb figures have closed in January or early February to appear on the PPR in February i.e. before covid was on the radar on this side of the world?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Ah. Just figured out how some here get access to this PPR data in excel format on their website

Ok.

In the year to 27/11/2019, 16,176 properties were recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

In the year to 27/11/2020, 11,693 properties are recorded as sold in Dublin on the PPR.

Construction levels and potential probate sales are at similar levels to 2019 i.e. additional housing supply entering the market is basically the same as the levels in 2019, even if it's not currently being advertised.

I have this funny feeling that Covid has been a godsend to EAs in covering up the lack of demand relative to supply.

We still dont know if they managed to build the 20k houses forcast at the start of the year. Already Micky Martin the head honcho of the country has said this target will not be reached. Call me biased but I think I will believe Micky as the fact that we did not reach this target means he will get a kicking for it so why the hell would he lie as apposed to your funny feelings as you have been caught on lies and manipulating stats and who has a hidden agenda.

Also can I just say if a property is not advertised for sale then its not on the supply side of the market (yet). Sorry to burst your little bubble there. Its like saying your wife is there standing on the side of the road so she is available for ride. If its not up for sale then guess what it cant be counted as a property for sale.

lol and now we have the EAs are covering for the supply vs demand paradigm that exists in the country conspiracy theory, surely Sherry Fitzgerald was on the Grassy Knowl when Kennedy got shot. Your getting worse

awec

three putt wrote: »

Out of interest, do you include or exclude VAT for new builds when getting this data?

To be honest I didn't go into it in that much detail. The PPR is useful but also the data is not really normalized.

You need to take every second hand sale that's a value of over 1000000, plus every new build with a value over 865,000 (since these would all have sale values > 1000000).

However, you then need to get rid of the ones where there are multiple properties in one single transaction. This is not straightforward cause there's nothing to indicate this definitively other than the title.

Sometimes, the title will say "100 apartments at x", other times it just says "block x at y", so it's impossible to know.

You would need to do this for both 2019 and 2020 (2020 figures should be complete by around March 21) and then compare.

thefridge2006

TheSheriff wrote: »

Agree, the draw down data is all that matters.

But, there was much fanfare on here a few months back when the news broke that banks were clamping down on approvals due to the pandemic. This appears to now have been reversed.

While draw downs are all that matter I think one could logically assume an increase in approvals will result in an increase in drawn downs.......obviously lots of obstacles to get to draw down, but it means more people in the potential pool of buyers.

No i disagree, banks have nothing to lose by offering as many people approval in principle to keep the show on the road, to keep a buzz about the place.

Its in the draw downs and sales that you'll see the reduction

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

No i disagree, banks have nothing to lose by offering as many people approval in principle to keep the show on the road, to keep a buzz about the place.

Its in the draw downs and sales that you'll see the reduction

Well, banks will only give people AIP if:

1. They apply for it
2. They meet the criteria.

While we may see drop offs in drawdowns or sales, the data still shows the is still a huge cohort of people in a position to buy (at least in a position where they want to buy).

And a drop in sales or drawdowns is not definitive either. We know for example that supply is very low right now, so lower sales will not be surprising for anyone.

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

No i disagree, banks have nothing to lose by offering as many people approval in principle to keep the show on the road, to keep a buzz about the place.

Its in the draw downs and sales that you'll see the reduction

Have your applied for AIP recently by any chance?

I have, it's not simply handed out. You need to submit a significant amount of documentation and meet criteria.

This is not some conspiracy theory.

brisan

thefridge2006 wrote: »

No i disagree, banks have nothing to lose by offering as many people approval in principle to keep the show on the road, to keep a buzz about the place.

Its in the draw downs and sales that you'll see the reduction

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q3-2020.pdf

thefridge2006

woejus wrote: »

Demand outstrips supply of €1m-plus Dublin homes

50+ €1,000,000 plus homes sold in Dublin by DNG alone.

"This has probably been the best year I’ve had since 1975"


Looks like we're heading straight for that 75% fall in prices in SoCoDu alright... :pac:

Hershal, 180 Butterfield Avenue, Rathfarnha.. ⇨ €2,950,000 | 5 Bed Detached House 5225 ft.. | http://myhome.ie/4212071 | #rathfarnham

Sold for €1,600,000.00 last year....that's some drop and thats before Covid

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

yes or generally any house down the country built on its on site, they tend to be cheaply built and poorly finished (at least in my experience when we toyed with moving out of dublin a few years back)

Seriously? i'm in such a house and there are many more local to me. is this poorly finished? http://claretipp.ie/656914/Sellernaun_West_Mountshannon_Clare

Seems reasonable to me, but perhaps i have low standards.

I'm hoping to put my house on the market next year and I'm shocked by how few properties there are with the local RA. I hope that bodes well for getting a good price and easy sale.

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

Seriously? i'm in such a house and there are many more local to me. is this poorly finished? http://claretipp.ie/656914/Sellernaun_West_Mountshannon_Clare

Seems reasonable to me, but perhaps i have low standards.

I'm hoping to put my house on the market next year and I'm shocked by how few properties there are with the local RA. I hope that bodes well for getting a good price and easy sale.

no that looks a nicely designed and well finished house to be fair. Nice views too although id argue the landscaping (and im guessing the drive way, they say gravel which people do because its cheap) leave a lot to be desired and you could easily spend 10s of thousands putting in a tarmac drive and landscaping the house.

i was more referring to this kind of thing

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/homelea-kilmuckridge-wexford/4332951

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/lilanber-inch-co-wexford-inch-wexford/4436905

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-judes-sinnottstown-lane-drinagh-wexford-town-wexford/4469729

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Hershal, 180 Butterfield Avenue, Rathfarnha.. ⇨ €2,950,000 | 5 Bed Detached House 5225 ft.. | http://myhome.ie/4212071 | #rathfarnham

Sold for €1,600,000.00 last year....that's some drop and thats before Covid

that was for sale since March 2018, the price was clearly unachievable.

Hubertj

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Hershal, 180 Butterfield Avenue, Rathfarnha.. ⇨ €2,950,000 | 5 Bed Detached House 5225 ft.. | http://myhome.ie/4212071 | #rathfarnham

Sold for €1,600,000.00 last year....that's some drop and thats before Covid

That’s the question I asked earlier... difference between sold prices and asking price.

HairySalmon

When I hear talk about affordable housing, what does that even mean? Affordable to who?

It’s fairly desperate that I’d be happy to get find a new build for under 500k to qualify for the help to buy scheme, but most are well over that in Dublin county.

Cherrywood was being sold as being built for the HTB but when I was talking to a rep from Sherry Fitzgerald she said that 3 bed semis are stating at mid 500’s and duplexes are starting at 400k. Just seems like smoke and mirrors.

House Hunt

HairySalmon wrote: »

When I hear talk about affordable housing, what does that even mean? Affordable to who?

It’s fairly desperate that I’d be happy to get find a new build for under 500k to qualify for the help to buy scheme, but most are well over that in Dublin county.

Cherrywood was being sold as being built for the HTB but when I was talking to a rep from Sherry Fitzgerald she said that 3 bed semis are stating at mid 500’s and duplexes are starting at 400k. Just seems like smoke and mirrors.

Surprised with that pricing. Is there any housing stock under the HTB limit? Mid terrace for example?

awec

HairySalmon wrote: »

When I hear talk about affordable housing, what does that even mean? Affordable to who?

It’s fairly desperate that I’d be happy to get find a new build for under 500k to qualify for the help to buy scheme, but most are well over that in Dublin county.

Cherrywood was being sold as being built for the HTB but when I was talking to a rep from Sherry Fitzgerald she said that 3 bed semis are stating at mid 500’s and duplexes are starting at 400k. Just seems like smoke and mirrors.

Affordable housing usually means state subsidised housing for low earners.

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

Affordable housing usually means state subsidised housing for low earners.

We got pricing to the email the other day for a new development in dunboyne (castle farm maybe ? I can't remember the exact name).

A two bed, mid terrace with an easy facing garden was 340k I believe (or maybe 330k)... Thought it was an awful lot for what is essentially Meath and not even your three bed semi.

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

no that looks a nicely designed and well finished house to be fair. Nice views too although id argue the landscaping (and im guessing the drive way, they say gravel which people do because its cheap) leave a lot to be desired and you could easily spend 10s of thousands putting in a tarmac drive and landscaping the house.

i was more referring to this kind of thing

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/homelea-kilmuckridge-wexford/4332951

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/lilanber-inch-co-wexford-inch-wexford/4436905

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-judes-sinnottstown-lane-drinagh-wexford-town-wexford/4469729

The last one is definitely out of bungalow bliss

brisan

HairySalmon wrote: »

When I hear talk about affordable housing, what does that even mean? Affordable to who?

It’s fairly desperate that I’d be happy to get find a new build for under 500k to qualify for the help to buy scheme, but most are well over that in Dublin county.

Cherrywood was being sold as being built for the HTB but when I was talking to a rep from Sherry Fitzgerald she said that 3 bed semis are stating at mid 500’s and duplexes are starting at 400k. Just seems like smoke and mirrors.

North Dublin you will find plenty or are you set on SoCo Du

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/new-homes/property-for-sale?maxprice=500000&minbeds=3

HairySalmon

HairySalmon wrote: »

When I hear talk about affordable housing, what does that even mean? Affordable to who?

It’s fairly desperate that I’d be happy to get find a new build for under 500k to qualify for the help to buy scheme, but most are well over that in Dublin county.

Cherrywood was being sold as being built for the HTB but when I was talking to a rep from Sherry Fitzgerald she said that 3 bed semis are stating at mid 500’s and duplexes are starting at 400k. Just seems like smoke and mirrors.

West and north Dublin you will find more affordable, even some parts of South Dublin near rathfarnham/tallaght may have new houses under 500K

PropQueries

For anyone interested in why DCC hasn't been able to get a handle on the housing crisis in Dublin, there is an excellent article by Mark Keenan in the Irish Independent.

Apparently the person in charge of housing in DCC over the past number of years was also in charge of the Limerick regeneration plan back in 2007 and it also details the reasons the Oscar Traynor Road in Coolock housing plan was recently voted down by the councillors.

He then goes on to say: "Is it somehow left wing to suggest the tax/rate payer shouldn’t always get screwed? That people should perhaps be housed in a manner that is most cost and resource effective?"

Link to Irish Independent article here (free to read): https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/dublin-city-councils-wine-into-water-housing-policies-39767811.html

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

For anyone interested in why DCC hasn't been able to get a handle on the housing crisis in Dublin, there is an excellent article by Mark Keenan in the Irish Independent.

Apparently the person in charge of housing in DCC over the past number of years was also in charge of the Limerick regeneration plan back in 2007 and it also details the reasons the Oscar Traynor Road in Coolock housing plan was recently voted down by the councillors.

He then goes on to say: "Is it somehow left wing to suggest the tax/rate payer shouldn’t always get screwed? That people should perhaps be housed in a manner that is most cost and resource effective?"

Link to Irish Independent article here (free to read): https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/dublin-city-councils-wine-into-water-housing-policies-39767811.html

There’s a surprise. Institutionalised incompetence. And people think the state could build at scale.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

The last one is definitely out of bungalow bliss

Yes that’s what I meant ! houses built from plans in books

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

There’s a surprise. Institutionalised incompetence. And people think the state could build at scale.

But he does say “Other local authorities do it and do it well. South Dublin Council hired Sisk to provide houses in Tallaght at an average cost of €177,000. So what gives?”

So, it appears to be all down to the few people at the top in just DCC as many of the other councils in Dublin and across ireland manage it fairly well.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But he does say “Other local authorities do it and do it well. South Dublin Council hired Sisk to provide houses in Tallaght at an average cost of €177,000. So what gives?”

So, it appears to be all down to the few people at the top in just DCC as many of the other councils in Dublin and across ireland manage it fairly well.

That 177k does not include what the cost of land would be I take it?

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

But he does say “Other local authorities do it and do it well. South Dublin Council hired Sisk to provide houses in Tallaght at an average cost of €177,000. So what gives?”

So, it appears to be all down to the few people at the top in just DCC as many of the other councils in Dublin and across ireland manage it fairly well.

There’s the problem, systemic failure. It’s not ideological as some conspiracy theorists would believe.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

That 177k does not include what the cost of land would be I take it?

Council already own the land and the land at the Oscar Traynor road was been given for free

Sweet.Science

Not many houses were built on that tallaght site by cisk

Less that what would be social houses on the oscar traynor road if it had gone through like planned