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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Very good point. But it does give the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes etc., a great cost advantage over the newer entrants in the next year or two. If e.g. Cairn Homes wants to encourage more sales, they can reduce their prices more easily than some of the developers who bought sites in the last 2 years, as the Cairn Homes of the building world would have bought most of their landbank at a much lower price before site values started increasing.

    and why would they lower their prices?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Reversal wrote: »
    Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.

    522901.jpg

    Looks relatively stable over the last couple of years considering the significant year on year increases before that. I though that’s what a stable market would look like - small fluctuations in price supply? Is that what it looks like in other countries with a ‘stable’ market? What would also be good to see in this graph is also the number of units sold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Reversal wrote: »
    Ehh.. but house prices ARE lower now than they were two years ago.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=522901&stc=1&d=1597324805

    but house prices ARE higher now than they were in 2019 December.
    Pelezico wrote: »
    Houses prices peaked in 2018. We have fallen since then and are now circa 2017 prices.

    Gone are the days of a house on Oxmanstown road securing +400k

    Houses prices peaked in 2007. We have fallen since then and are now circa 2005 prices.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    tigger123 wrote: »
    Can I ask what you interest is here? Are you waiting to purchase a home?

    I bought in the last few years, have a steady job, and will be here for a while, so I don't really care about prices going up or down.

    If anything, I would like them to go down so as to allow more people on average incomes to be able to buy a home.

    No real interest in if they go up or down at the moment as I'm almost mortgage free. However, my younger ones will be looking to buy soon and it seems most of the media coverage appears to be on the upside, while most of the evidence seems to be signaling towards the other direction. If too many younger people buy at the wrong time, the government is likely to raid my pension fund again to pay for the fallout, so I'd rather they fall to their natural price level quicker rather than later to keep my pension in tact.


  • Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    No real interest in if they go up or down at the moment as I'm almost mortgage free. However, my younger ones will be looking to buy soon and it seems most of the media coverage appears to be on the upside, while most of the evidence seems to be signaling towards the other direction. If too many younger people buy at the wrong time, the government is likely to raid my pension fund again to pay for the fallout, so I'd rather they fall to their natural price level quicker rather than later to keep my pension in tact.


    I am in the same boat. If house prices fall, it represents a nonn cash transfer to my son.

    For me it is a no brainer. I want them to fall...and am pleased with progress so far...at least in the areas of interest to my children


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I am in the same boat. If house prices fall, it represents a nonn cash transfer to my son.

    For me it is a no brainer. I want them to fall...and am pleased with progress so far...at least in the areas of interest to my children

    That's true. The government seems to think all us oldies want our homes to keep increasing for ever. The problem is that our generation (even the ones without kids) are going to pay for it, one way or the other. For example, I read an article recently where the report recommended increasing the pension age to 75.


  • Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭Jimi H


    At the end of Q1, over 63k mortgages were in arrears for PDH and over 16k for buy to lets. I’m sure the figures are sadly a lot worse since then. What happens exactly with these houses? Do people leave the houses when they become unaffordable? Hopefully we’ll see a lot more new builds to allow people live in houses they can afford.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-march-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=4


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    and why would they lower their prices?

    Because they're a publicly quoted company and investors look at sales and they can't be using covid as an excuse for ever. Investors need to see that there really is demand for the homes they're building at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Jimi H wrote: »
    At the end of Q1, over 63k mortgages were in arrears for PDH and over 16k for buy to lets. I’m sure the figures are sadly a lot worse since then. What happens exactly with these houses? Do people leave the houses when they become unaffordable? Hopefully we’ll see a lot more new builds to allow people live in houses they can afford.

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-march-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=4

    This country does not do repossessions of family homes any but to lets may come on stream do


  • Administrators Posts: 53,813 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Because they're a publicly quoted company and investors look at sales and they can't be using covid as an excuse for ever. Investors need to see that there really is demand for the homes they're building at the moment.

    Are they struggling to sell their houses at the moment? Where have you seen this, and where have you seen them use covid as an excuse?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    Are they struggling to sell their houses at the moment? Where have you seen this, and where have you seen them use covid as an excuse?

    The initial exchange was a debate on why the bigger players have an advantage over the newer entrants into the market. For example, if Cairn Homes bought their sites for €15k each and a new entrant bought their sites for €60k last year, if there was a slowdown in the market, Cairn Homes would be in a much better position to lower their asking prices to move their stock more quickly in such a scenario.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Because they're a publicly quoted company and investors look at sales and they can't be using covid as an excuse for ever. Investors need to see that there really is demand for the homes they're building at the moment.

    Are you for real there is report after report stating that we need a sh1t load more housing, Were you not here for the recent elections I seen nearly every party have some kind of spiel about more housing, not one said its ok we have enough? We have a housing list which is very very high in the country, where are you getting this analysis from that we don't need more houses?

    Just from a quick google search first page. i could go to the second and third page but every report is stating we need more housing not one link or report says we have sufficient or too much housing. If you can provide some evidence of what your saying and before you show me the report of unoccupied houses the argument of the validity of this report has been done to death , the analysis was flawed and proven to have a lot of houses down as unoccupied that were being lived in.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-houses-do-we-really-need-1.3515359

    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ireland-needs-60000-houses-built-16388836


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1210/1098192-central-bank-housing-demand/

    https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/can-ireland-step-back-from-housing-cliff-edge-38936889.html

    https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/why-fixing-irelands-housing-crisis-requires-change-policy


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭tigger123


    No real interest in if they go up or down at the moment as I'm almost mortgage free. However, my younger ones will be looking to buy soon and it seems most of the media coverage appears to be on the upside, while most of the evidence seems to be signaling towards the other direction. If too many younger people buy at the wrong time, the government is likely to raid my pension fund again to pay for the fallout, so I'd rather they fall to their natural price level quicker rather than later to keep my pension in tact.

    It's all idle speculation.

    I've been following this forum for years and people in here have been consistently predicting a fall in house prices just around the corner.

    IMHO, years of appalling housing policy and under supply, coupled with predictions that we need somewhere between 25k and 47k houses per year to meet future demand, more than likely means that any dip in house prices right now will only be temporary. Housing is a very expensive commodity that is very scarce.

    The best time to buy was 5 years ago (as they say).


  • Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭BEdS_83


    awec wrote: »
    Are they struggling to sell their houses at the moment? Where have you seen this, and where have you seen them use covid as an excuse?

    good question, because I fired up a few emails last week, got 1 answered that the house was sale agreed already and they forgot to change the ad, and this week got another 2 answers, again, sale agreed, doesn't look like RE are having problem to sell..

    and 1 of them the RE didn't even care to write my name, just seemed that a canned answer to a group of people, "hi, the 10 Parkside is now sale agreed, thank you!" (almost like that)

    in fairness, I didn't ask for houses 20 yo, BER=E

    lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Are you for real there is report after report stating that we need a sh1t load more housing, Were you not here for the recent elections I seen nearly every party have some kind of spiel about more housing, not one said its ok we have enough? We have a housing list which is very very high in the country, where are you getting this analysis from that we don't need more houses?

    Just from a quick google search first page. i could go to the second and third page but every report is stating we need more housing not one link or report says we have sufficient or too much housing. If you can provide some evidence of what your saying and before you show me the report of unoccupied houses the argument of the validity of this report has been done to death , the analysis was flawed and proven to have a lot of houses down as unoccupied that were being lived in.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-houses-do-we-really-need-1.3515359

    https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ireland-needs-60000-houses-built-16388836


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1210/1098192-central-bank-housing-demand/

    https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/can-ireland-step-back-from-housing-cliff-edge-38936889.html

    https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/why-fixing-irelands-housing-crisis-requires-change-policy

    Well, the latest GeoDirectory report in June said there's 90,000 vacant houses in Ireland. Even if they're all located in the middle of nowhere, it then gives lie to the idea that rural homes will increase in value due to more people working from home, as there would be an existing massive over-supply of housing stock still available outside the major cities.

    https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well, the latest GeoDirectory report in June said there's 90,000 vacant houses in Ireland. Even if they're all located in the middle of nowhere, it then gives lie to the idea that rural homes will increase in value due to more people working from home, as there would be an existing massive over-supply of housing stock still available outside the major cities.

    https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE

    This report has been proven to be nonsense since. Can I ask why would every political party the lefties, righties and the lads down the middle why would one of the basis for all of them to try to get into government be dealing with the "housing problem"?? So in your mind the housing problem is there is too much property?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    This report has been proven to be nonsense since. Can I ask why would every political party the lefties, righties and the lads down the middle why would one of the basis for all of them to try to get into government be dealing with the "housing problem"?? So in your mind the housing problem is there is too much property?

    That's where I get confused. There's only two reports that actually do count, on the ground, the number of vacant homes in the country. One is the Census, which nobody seems to believe and the other is this GeoDirectory report. Where's the report that went around and counted all the vacant properties, as these two reports actually did, and said there's very little vacant homes?


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,559 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    tigger123 wrote: »

    The best time to buy was 5 years ago (as they say).

    The question you should ask is in this country since WW 2 when we're the bad times to buy a house.

    The answer is from about 2007-2010. That about 4 years in 75 years period

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,397 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    The question you should ask is in this country since WW 2 when we're the bad times to buy a house.

    The answer is from about 2007-2010. That about 4 years in 75 years period

    theres never a perfect time to buy a house, because nobody knows when they are, at any moment in time, its truly a personal experience, weight up your personal situation, take a chance, and hope for the best, because nobody has all the information all the time, and theres probably more variables completely out of your control


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    That's where I get confused. There's only two reports that actually do count, on the ground, the number of vacant homes in the country. One is the Census, which nobody seems to believe and the other is this GeoDirectory report. Where's the report that went around and counted all the vacant properties, as these two reports actually did, and said there's very little vacant homes?

    The census is open to all kinds of manipulation, people have told you about personal experiences of their house being down as vacant when they were not, I also showed you that the manipulation would only show houses that were occupied that would be reported as vacant and not the other way around, I also gave the example of the garda blowing into breathalyzers as a case of human nature that people will more times than not will do the bare minimum when doing monotonous tasks and going door to door seeing if someone is home is exactly that, we went through this last week. They are not the only reports that count so the housing list doesn't count? Look I don't doubt there are a good number of houses in ghost estates that are unoccupied but you should not confuse this with the country needs to build more houses in particular the highly populated areas.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    thread for ongoing census discussion over here please folks: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058102792


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    Well, the latest GeoDirectory report in June said there's 90,000 vacant houses in Ireland. Even if they're all located in the middle of nowhere, it then gives lie to the idea that rural homes will increase in value due to more people working from home, as there would be an existing massive over-supply of housing stock still available outside the major cities.

    https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE

    Grasping at straws much? Defining a Rural is tricky, do you consider Wexford Rural, or Waterford or Kilkenny? How about Clare or Galway? Leitrim would qualify I think.

    Point is when we talk about people moving out of cities to bigger houses in the country that will increase in price because of demand, we’re really only talking about Dublin, people will still want to relatively close to an Urban area, whether that’s a town or a city, now those 90’000 empty houses if they are in the middle of nowhere are vacant for a reason, no access to services, towns etc, and I’ve seen a fair few houses with no one in em in the middle of nowhere and unlikely to have anyone in them because of their location


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    The Spider wrote: »
    Grasping at straws much? Defining a Rural is tricky, do you consider Wexford Rural, or Waterford or Kilkenny? How about Clare or Galway? Leitrim would qualify I think.

    Point is when we talk about people moving out of cities to bigger houses in the country that will increase in price because of demand, we’re really only talking about Dublin, people will still want to relatively close to an Urban area, whether that’s a town or a city, now those 90’000 empty houses if they are in the middle of nowhere are vacant for a reason, no access to services, towns etc, and I’ve seen a fair few houses with no one in em in the middle of nowhere and unlikely to have anyone in them because of their location

    Well, maybe they are all located in Co. Leitrim...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    fliball123 wrote: »
    This report has been proven to be nonsense since. Can I ask why would every political party the lefties, righties and the lads down the middle why would one of the basis for all of them to try to get into government be dealing with the "housing problem"?? So in your mind the housing problem is there is too much property?

    Just to clarify, GeoDirectory reports should not be confused with 2016 Census discussed previously.
    Actually GeoDirectory reports, I think it's the best what we have in Ireland in regards to Housing Stocks. Although I wouldn't comment how precise it is regarding the vacancy, as it is so complex term.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Marius34 wrote: »
    Just to clarify, GeoDirectory reports should not be confused with 2016 Census discussed previously.
    Actually GeoDirectory reports, I think it's the best what we have in Ireland in regards to Housing Stocks. Although I wouldn't comment how precise it is regarding the vacancy, as it is so complex term.

    Even if both reports are bang on accurate a report that shows houses in the back a$$ of nowhere empty has zero correlation to the housing needs of a country


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Even if both reports are bang on accurate a report that shows houses in the back a$$ of nowhere empty has zero correlation to the housing needs of a country

    They do matter if the WFH phenomenon is actually real and the Government carries through on it's intention to connect up every existing house in Ireland to super-fast broadband.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    They do matter if the WFH phenomenon is actually real and the Government carries through on it's intention to connect up every existing house in Ireland to super-fast broadband.

    Working from home will not instantly sort out essential infrastructure such as Fast broadband or decent Roads, Public Transport, Schools, Hospitals/GPs, Creche, Shops, Restaurants, Pubs , ye know things that make a place livable/bearable.

    Your reaching now I think anyone looking at your argument of 90k unoccupied houses some of which were mislabeled and are occupied, some of which the work was not done properly due to the monotonous nature of knocking on doors and with this bringing that 90k right down the majority of the unoccupied are in areas that the majority of people simply dont want to live there otherwise we would not have a housing list of nearly 70K people waiting to be housed

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30969860.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Working from home will not instantly sort out essential infrastructure such as Fast broadband or decent Roads, Public Transport, Schools, Hospitals/GPs, Creche, Shops, Restaurants, Pubs , ye know things that make a place livable/bearable.

    Your reaching now I think anyone looking at your argument of 90k unoccupied houses some of which were mislabeled and are occupied, some of which the work was not done properly due to the monotonous nature of knocking on doors and with this bringing that 90k right down the majority of the unoccupied are in areas that the majority of people simply dont want to live there otherwise we would not have a housing list of nearly 70K people waiting to be housed

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30969860.html

    Those 70k people waiting to be housed can all be housed by the 148k people over the age of 80 in Ireland whose homes will very soon become available to them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    There's a bit of the George Bush "Mission Accomplished" about people coming on here to proclaim that because prices haven't gone down yet they never will.

    Perhaps they won't but we are not through this yet, the government still has the economy on life support and Varadckar was out saying this could last another two years.

    If you predict either a rise or a fall in house prices every day, you'll eventually be right. A few months back in Part 1 of this thread we were being told about 30-40%+ price drops by year end or end of next year. Meanwhile I'm still looking at new builds that are over subscribed at firm pre-covid pricing (if not going up still) because demand far outstrips supply and even if covid kills some demand, that will not equalise the supply and demand imbalance.

    I just feel sorry for anyone who decided to pull out of a process listening to that sort of nonsense, because the cost of a mortgage is typically less than the cost of renting on a monthly basis; or else they're still cooped up with mammy and daddy waiting on that big big drop.
    Pelezico wrote: »
    We haven't even got halfway through the downturn yet guys.

    I see house prices have reduced to 2017 levels


    The autumn will bring a lot of pain.

    So, all of the data is currently telling us: (a) Retail sales in the economy have returned to pre-pandemic levels. (b) Income taxes are down -2.5% YTD, total. (c) We can still see major new supply being built and over subscribed.

    The 2008 recession was fundamentally about too much credit driven supply. The 2020 recession is about closing the economy for a pandemic and then re-opening it, and while there will be damage it's in the context of supply far below demand. Fundamentally and totally a different situation.
    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Just for context; while I do expect some modest price drops, I have been coming to this forum for 2 years, and for 2 years the advice has been that price drops are coming. Before Covid it was Brexit.

    At some point people will be correct.

    Amen
    If there were 40,000 people over the age of 80 in Dublin in the last Census, would that mean there's homes for 40,000 younger people about to enter the market (to rent or buy) in the very near future? Just not sure why there's never any commentary in the media about this fact as it does seem like a lot of potential supply coming down the tracks that nobody seems to factor in.

    One systemic issue with the housing stock of older residents becoming available is the Fair Deal. There's quite a few thousand homes sitting idle in Ireland because selling the home or renting it out while the owner is still alive will see the state absolutely rinse the deal, versus waiting for the person to pass when the take of the state is capped at a far lower rate. So there are homes sitting idle effectively waiting for probate to, well, occur. But touching the fair deal is a political hot potato.
    Great graph. So, it looks like we're following the same path as last time. 2 years of slowly falling prices followed by a massive plummet once both buyers and sellers fully understand what's going on. With no international investment funds to soak up all the unsold properties this time around, we may be in for a decade or so of continuously falling prices.

    Once the buyers and sellers understand what? That demand in the economy has swung back to where it was pre-covid already and the number of people sitting waiting to form a household hasn't really materially changed?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Those 70k people waiting to be housed can all be housed by the 148k people over the age of 80 in Ireland whose homes will very soon become available to them.

    Last I checked we have had more births than deaths in this country year on year over the last decade or 2 so while there are 70k now there may well be 100k in a year or 2, also year on year average life expectancy has been going up well that was until Covid at least. Also its not only people in the over 80s demographic that is growing..Those under 80s are also growing and they all need a place to live


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