Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Are you for real there is report after report stating that we need a sh1t load more housing, Were you not here for the recent elections I seen nearly every party have some kind of spiel about more housing, not one said its ok we have enough? We have a housing list which is very very high in the country, where are you getting this analysis from that we don't need more houses?

Just from a quick google search first page. i could go to the second and third page but every report is stating we need more housing not one link or report says we have sufficient or too much housing. If you can provide some evidence of what your saying and before you show me the report of unoccupied houses the argument of the validity of this report has been done to death , the analysis was flawed and proven to have a lot of houses down as unoccupied that were being lived in.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-houses-do-we-really-need-1.3515359

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ireland-needs-60000-houses-built-16388836


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/1210/1098192-central-bank-housing-demand/

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/can-ireland-step-back-from-housing-cliff-edge-38936889.html

https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/research/spotlight-research/why-fixing-irelands-housing-crisis-requires-change-policy

I'm consistently amazed that people simultaneously take research from the likes of Savills and "Property developers GPD" as gospel and refuse to believe the census.

Utter madness.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I'm consistently amazed that people simultaneously take research from the likes of Savills and "Property developers GPD" as gospel and refuse to believe the census.

Utter madness.

So you agree with the other poster who suggests we dont need more housing? Maybe all the parties during the last election put their differences aside and got together and decided to help the poor developers out and pretend we need more housing even the likes of People before profit and the likes

An Ri rua

MrMusician18 wrote: »

To be fair, if the price drops do not manifest themselves in the next 4 to 6 months the property bulls will have called this correctly and i, like many others on the forum will have to eat their humble pie. Although the housing market has incredible amounts of inertia, at this point, I would've expected it to be showing signs of turning. Volume is way way down though which is likely playing into price support.

That said I just cannot see how prices can remain supported at the level they are at given the damage to the economy. The buyer pool has to be shrinking rather rapidly currently as credit becomes withdrawn, jobs are lost and the economy enters recession.

Since volume of completed sales is way down are we looking at sellers simply refusing to countenance a price below expectation? I guess we shall see if the no of available properties starts to rise that this is the reason (no evidence of this yet tbf). If that is the case then the falls will eventually come.

It's no different to deaths and cases. The current buying is a trailing metric. Plenty of approved buyers desperate to seal deals.
Give it til January and we'll see what's what.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I'm consistently amazed that people simultaneously take research from the likes of Savills and "Property developers GPD" as gospel and refuse to believe the census.

Utter madness.

I’m amazed people take 2 data points 5 years apart with no additional data or statistical analysis to support and draw a conclusion that there isn’t a shortage of accommodation.

Utter utter madness.

fliball123

Hubertj wrote: »

I’m amazed people take 2 data points 5 years apart with no additional data or statistical analysis to support and draw a conclusion that there isn’t a shortage of accommodation.

Utter utter madness.

Its a conspiracy they are all in on it, its ok lads we don't need more housing and there is no housing list nothing to see here I mean regardless of what was on the census why would every party in the last election from FF to Sinn Fein from PBP to independents all have a spiel about how they were going to build more houses to sort the "housing crisis" the phrase was not shortage of housing or not enough housing but an actual "housing crisis" or are they all just in the developers pockets?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

So you agree with the other poster who suggests we dont need more housing? Maybe all the parties during the last election put their differences aside and got together and decided to help the poor developers out and pretend we need more housing even the likes of People before profit and the likes

I certainly don’t think we need 90,000 units a year as recommended by one of the reports you linked.

I think the housing shortage is grossly exaggerated and if we start building 90,000 a year based on misguided public opinion we’ll be looking at a massive oversupply issue very quickly.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I certainly don’t think we need 90,000 units a year as recommended by one of the reports you linked.

I think the housing shortage is grossly exaggerated and if we start building 90,000 a year based on misguided public opinion we’ll be looking at a massive oversupply issue very quickly.

We certainly won’t be building anything like that if prices don’t support it

Chicken and egg

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I’m amazed people take 2 data points 5 years apart with no additional data or statistical analysis to support and draw a conclusion that there isn’t a shortage of accommodation.

Utter utter madness.

Let’s not start that nonsense again.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Very good point. But it does give the bigger players e.g. Cairn Homes etc., a great cost advantage over the newer entrants in the next year or two. If e.g. Cairn Homes wants to encourage more sales, they can reduce their prices more easily than some of the developers who bought sites in the last 2 years, as the Cairn Homes of the building world would have bought most of their landbank at a much lower price before site values started increasing.

They also used all the money raised in their flotation to buy more expensive land, the price paid for the RTÉ site was mental .

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

We haven't even got halfway through the downturn yet guys.

I see house prices have reduced to 2017 levels


The autumn will bring a lot of pain.

Prices had been stagnating in Dublin for the past 2 years this is old news , your constant insistence of big decreases right now has been proven wrong as have the data points you have used to support it .

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

We certainly won’t be building anything like that if prices don’t support it

Chicken and egg

Surely if the demand is there prices will support it?

And we’re told the demand is there. According to GPD Property Developers at least.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I certainly don’t think we need 90,000 units a year as recommended by one of the reports you linked.

I think the housing shortage is grossly exaggerated and if we start building 90,000 a year based on misguided public opinion we’ll be looking at a massive oversupply issue very quickly.

I put up 5 links all showing different figures of housing (of course you would pick the one that had the highest value) that was needed to be honest I don't know what we need but anyone on here saying we don't need to build more housing will need to explain the last election to me and why every single party put a section related on how they are going to deal with the housing shortage/housing crisis in this country in their manifesto otherwise it is nothing short of lying to say we do not need more housing.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

I put up 5 links all showing different figures of housing (of course you would pick the one that had the highest value) that was needed to be honest I don't know what we need but anyone on here saying we don't need to build more housing will need to explain the last election to me and why every single party put a section related on how they are going to deal with the housing shortage/housing crisis in this country in their manifesto otherwise it is nothing short of lying to say we do not need more housing.

Ok I don’t believe we need 35000 a year either, as suggested by the bloke from Savills.

I accept the current housing crisis needs to be dealt with urgently and it makes perfect sense that every party would campaign on this issue.

I just don’t agree that the solution is scaling up building to the tune of 35,000+ a year for the next decade.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Ok I don’t believe we need 35000 a year either, as suggested by the bloke from Savills.

I accept the current housing crisis needs to be dealt with urgently and it makes perfect sense that every party would campaign on this issue.

I just don’t agree that the solution is scaling up building to the tune of 35,000+ a year for the next decade.

Ok well thats a start so we are in agreement we are currently at a deficit for housing, if you look at myhome the amount of houses for sale is at a very low level and getting lower day by day it has dropped by over 3.5k since covid became an issue or about 15% down than 5/6 months ago, if that trend continues there is not a hope in hell we will see a drop in prices. It made perfect sense for every party to campaign for it as that is what they are all hearing from the constituents and because there is an actual problem with lack of housing

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Ok well thats a start so we are in agreement we are currently at a deficit for housing, if you look at myhome the amount of houses for sale is at a very low level and getting lower day by day it has dropped by over 3.5k since covid became an issue or about 15% down than 5/6 months ago, if that trend continues there is not a hope in hell we will see a drop in prices. It made perfect sense for every party to campaign for it as that is what they are all hearing from the constituents and because there is an actual problem with lack of housing

Yes we are currently at a deficit. But I think that is largely down to existing stock being badly allocated. If that problem is not tackled and the solution is simply to build more, when the inefficient allocation of stock washes through there will be a huge oversupply.

Wanderer78

schmittel wrote:

Yes we are currently at a deficit. But I think that is largely down to existing stock being badly allocated. If that problem is not tackled and the solution is simply to build more, when the inefficient allocation of stock washes through there will be a huge oversupply.

The market has had a huge under supply for over a decade now, we haven't figured out how to stop the aging process and people are still having kids, keep building folks

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Yes we are currently at a deficit. But I think that is largely down to existing stock being badly allocated. If that problem is not tackled and the solution is simply to build more, when the inefficient allocation of stock washes through there will be a huge oversupply.

The solution is and always has been to build in the more desirable, more populated and the centers that have the most jobs and best infrastructure and work outward from these. So Dublin, Cork, Galway, Limerick, Waterford should of had a shed load of high rises erected in and around their city centers and in all developments in the burbs and not just the 3/4 beds that we see..But that didnt happen. I mean something must be wrong with the supply line as we are now 6 months in and prices have not dropped I appreciate that property lags behind but if there was a drop coming I thought it would of been kicking in by now

fliball123

Just as a matter of interest has anyone been keeping tabs on property prices in other countries?

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The market has had a huge under supply for over a decade now, we haven't figured out how to stop the aging process and people are still having kids, keep building folks

Actually we have figured that out both the aging process and the number of people having kids. Both figures from 2019.

Life expectancy in Ireland levelling off: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/life-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Flife-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387

Ireland’s birth rate down 25% compared to Celtic Tiger period: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-s-birth-rate-down-25-compared-to-celtic-tiger-period-1.4055232

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Actually we have figured that out both the aging process and the number of people having kids. Both figures from 2019.

Life expectancy in Ireland levelling off: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/life-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Flife-expectancy-levelling-off-especially-for-irish-women-1.3810387

Ireland’s birth rate down 25% compared to Celtic Tiger period: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-s-birth-rate-down-25-compared-to-celtic-tiger-period-1.4055232

yet we still have one of the highest birth rates in Europe I think Third also all of thoes tiger kiddies will need somewhere to live in the future.

Mic 1972

ShedTower wrote: »

The further drop in sales in July might be significant. Or would this have been expected to this extent as we get further from pre-lockdown activities?

If the ratio of sales to available stock is decreasing then prices will only go down I would have thought.

the sales volumes dropped during Covid for obvious reasons, they are picking up again. But interestingly prices didn't show any sign of decline during one of the most uncertain times of our economic history.
People are still investing in property regardless of any possible incoming recession. People have cash, not everyone depends on a loan

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote:

The solution is and always has been to build in the more desirable, more populated and the centers that have the most jobs and best infrastructure and work outward from these. So Dublin, Cork, Galway, Limerick, Waterford should of had a shed load of high rises erected in and around their city centers and in all developments in the burbs and not just the 3/4 beds that we see..But that didnt happen. I mean something must be wrong with the supply line as we are now 6 months in and prices have not dropped I appreciate that property lags behind but if there was a drop coming I thought it would of been kicking in by now

All our major cities mentioned require apartments, probably more so than houses. Assume credit is still available to those that can afford it, helping to maintain prices

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote:

Actually we have figured that out both the aging process and the number of people having kids. Both figures from 2019.

But we haven't been able to stop people aging, hence the under supply, can't see 1 year old kids needing their own place at the moment

Pelezico

An Ri rua wrote: »

It's no different to deaths and cases. The current buying is a trailing metric. Plenty of approved buyers desperate to seal deals.
Give it til January and we'll see what's what.

Good point. These buyers who want to secure a house before approval lapses are walking into a lions den.

Also, banks will not be lending in a few months as their tier1 capital requirements will force their hand.

Bad times ahead.

Wanderer78

Pelezico wrote:

Also, banks will not be lending in a few months as their tier1 capital requirements will force their hand.

Yea I'm deeply worried about this, and adding Italys troubles into the mix, this could all get a little hairy quickly

TheSheriff

Pelezico wrote: »

Good point. These buyers who want to secure a house before approval lapses are walking into a lions den.

Also, banks will not be lending in a few months as their tier1 capital requirements will force their hand.

Bad times ahead.

Plenty of my cohort of friends have gotten approval for the first time since Covid started.

They were all renting; they have now realized they want a house for more space and are looking at the Dublin region.

I do find the whole idea that there is a cohort of people absolutely desperate to use their mortgage approval before it runs out a bit misleading. We have no evidence of this. Its all just talk, but anecdotally (as we are talking), I now have more friends looking to buy in Dublin than pre-Covid, primarily because they envisage another lockdown and want space.

These arguments are somewhat circular. The only real data will be the property register.

Aron722

Property prices wont fall, Stats show 1 in 5 in Ireland are minimum pay workers. That is very high for a EU country. This means also tax for the government wasn't hit that hard. The main loss is tourism Most people don't understand the property market. Psychologically everyone waiting for a price drop but how can it drop when the demand is high. People can't wait forever so they all out getting their mortgage approvals now thinking that price will fall. Will not happen anything under 500k.

MacronvFrugals

https://www.thejournal.ie/brown-thomas-arnotts-job-cuts-covid-19-5175162-Aug2020/

Remember i said about a guy i knew who borrowed off his parents an extra 20k to secure a deal on a house him and his partner were looking at to get it through quickly while mortgage approval was available, well he got notice yesterday that those rumored job loses will include him in the next month or so but the mortgage is sealed and they got the keys recently.

ebayissues

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/brown-thomas-arnotts-job-cuts-covid-19-5175162-Aug2020/

Remember i said about a guy i knew who borrowed off his parents an extra 20k to secure a deal on a house him and his partner were looking at to get it through quickly while mortgage approval was available, well he got notice yesterday that those rumored job loses will include him in the next month or so but the mortgage is sealed and they got the keys recently.

As I've been told over and over on this thread, it's better to be jobless in your own house than being jobless whilst renting.

enricoh

Aron722 wrote: »

Property prices wont fall, Stats show 1 in 5 in Ireland are minimum pay workers. That is very high for a EU country. This means also tax for the government wasn't hit that hard. The main loss is tourism Most people don't understand the property market. Psychologically everyone waiting for a price drop but how can it drop when the demand is high. People can't wait forever so they all out getting their mortgage approvals now thinking that price will fall. Will not happen anything under 500k.

Jaysus demand was high in 2007 too. I dunno but a lot of people are only in work coz the government is paying their wages to their employer. When that winds down a lot of jobs will vanish imo.
Tourism, hospitality and retail will be hairy.
I reckon a lot of landlords are going to pull the plug too, Fianna fail won't be left behind in the populism stakes with the big bad landlords.