Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I've been hoping to find commercial space in Dublin for an office/ workshop and there's little or nothing available. Does anyone know when all this cheap office space is going to hit the market that McWilliams is talking about?

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset-1.4329527?mode=amp

I presume that could be next year as government unwinds stimulus and we see what companies are able to keep going....good luck with it whatever your plans are.

JJJackal

PropQueries wrote: »

There's probably far more than 22 apartments asking in that price range. For example, if there are 20 two-beds for rent in the one block, they only advertise one on Daft as they're all similar, but there's really 20 for rent.

These are the numbers that are definitely available.

On further inspection 2 properties appear to be hotel rooms in the Intercontinental

Number 1 Residences has 5 properties (these are the extremely expensive ones) - the link to their website appears broken. There maybe more here for sure

Every other property is likely a one off rental

JJJackal

PropQueries wrote: »

The rentals on Daft haven't been a reliable guide of the true supply for the past few years due to the build-to-rent companies only advertising one of each specific unit, even though there may be another 10 similar units available to rent.

Also, many people these days source rental accommodation through watsapp, facebook groups etc., so the Daft reports may be under-counting the true supply by at least a 1,000 units a month.

Where is the evidence of 1,000?

People have always advertised places to rent through work, message boards etc.
People often look for friends to share or take over or colleagues. This is not new

The Belly

JJJackal wrote: »

These are the numbers that are definitely available.

On further inspection 2 properties appear to be hotel rooms in the Intercontinental

Number 1 Residences has 5 properties (these are the extremely expensive ones) - the link to their website appears broken. There maybe more here for sure

Every other property is likely a one off rental

intercontinental which was the 4 seasons is probably under pressure.

JJJackal

The Belly wrote: »

intercontinental which was the 4 seasons is probably under pressure.

Its not particularly full tonight as I tried to book a room to see. I could book >76 rooms

Villa05

tigger123 wrote:

That 250k isnt going to change much, recession or not. The people hoarding the land aren't going to bother selling it or developing on it until the margins are there to make it worthwhile.

Mechanisms are available to deter land hoarding

PropQueries wrote:

According the latest the real cost of building a home from the SCSI, it costs c. €180,000 to build a 114 sq.m. house in Dublin, including all site development costs:

Meanwhile the state is signing off on 750,000 euro long term leases

fliball123 wrote:

Well where else will they get a guaranteed 6-8% ROI backed by the government. I think its a no brainier to have a rock solid return ongoing with other risk strategies as well as our government looking after the maintenance, can you show me somewhere else giving back the same return (state guaranteed)

Are you comfortable with the Irish government gifting your tax money to these private firms who pay no tax of note when there are far cheaper potentially profitable options available to the state

fliball123 wrote:

Remember the government are not in for a profit they are looking to house people and according to all the lefties there currently is not enough houses either for sale or rent so I cant see them dropping anything any time soon as long as the lefties keep up the emotional blackmail

It's a bit of a misnomer to say only lefties are looking for housing action. Google and the other Fanngs and multi nationals have been calling for action for some time. They know are the drivers of WFH in an attempt to counteract the lack of action by the state

fliball123 wrote:

We have been over 200 billion in debt since 2010/11 and no one has stopped lending us money we are now getting it at a much lower rate and when money dries up then the lads just print more which is currently happening

We have shown that we will pass our debts as a result of our screw ups onto our children, look at Italy to see our future. They are viewed as one of the PIGS, while in truth they have been running a balanced budget for over a decade. Its the interest on their debt that is crippling them

Our gift to our children if current goverent policy is continued

fliball123 wrote:

Do these guys not have to pay for electricity?

Data centres should only be approved where the applicant builds a renewable power source to meet the requirements of the data centre

PropQueries wrote:

That's true. The government seems to think all us oldies want our homes to keep increasing for ever. The problem is that our generation (even the ones without kids) are going to pay for it, one way or the other. For example, I read an article recently where the report recommended increasing the pension age to 75.

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Remember i said about a guy i knew who borrowed off his parents an extra 20k to secure a deal on a house him and his partner were looking at to get it through quickly while mortgage approval was available, well he got notice yesterday that those rumored job loses will include him in the next month or so but the mortgage is sealed and they got the keys recently.

ebayissues wrote:

As I've been told over and over on this thread, it's better to be jobless in your own house than being jobless whilst renting.

schmittel wrote:

Having let it get this bad it is actually a perfect rational decision for people to say feck it, if you can't beat them join them, we'll take the mortgage, worst case scenario is we'll just stop paying it and sure if we play the game the house will not be repossessed.

Agreed, however the endgame is the mother of all crashes when it does come. We are experts at creating systems that make a bad situation explosive

Hubertj wrote:

If employment levels are high why has productivity fallen so much.

Commercial as opposed to resedintial

Pelezico wrote:

There must be a lot of rejections.

Approval in principle allows you to bid and drive up price. If you loose there is no need to to proceed to the phase where drawdown is refused

fliball123 wrote:

then why have prices not dropped? We have seen demand/access to credit coming down? If you dont think supply is the answer then you seriously need to back to economics class.

Reduced sales but at a higher price level means prices in theory do not fall

That's me done for the week. Enjoy

The Belly

JJJackal wrote: »

Its not particularly full tonight as I tried to book a room to see. I could book >76 rooms

covid rules id say

floors closed i actually know it very well nice hotel

Iceman29

brisan wrote: »

Well according to the FED it’s the worst recession since the crash of 1920
The central Bank of England is saying it will be the worst recession in 300 years
The Irish Central Bank says the worst recession since the foundation of the state
The ECB saying the worst recession in peacetime in the last 100 years
Someone somewhere is doing the maths and is either totally off the mark or bang on the money.

100%.... I just can't understand that people
seem to forget this is by far the biggest thing we'll ever see in our lifetime. I was on staycation there last week and some of the towns were reasonably busy..... Until it started to drizzle, then all hell broke lose. Nobody in cafes/shops/pubs etc due to social distancing. Some of these places were doing OK while the sun shines but unfortunately after Sept in Ireland it rains alot. I can see alot more empty shop fronts very very soon. The city/towns we know it have finished unfortunately and its game over for so many businesses

Bass Reeves

Iceman29 wrote: »

100%.... I just can't understand that people
seem to forget this is by far the biggest thing we'll ever see in our lifetime. I was on staycation there last week and some of the towns were reasonably busy..... Until it started to drizzle, then all hell broke lose. Nobody in cafes/shops/pubs etc due to social distancing. Some of these places were doing OK while the sun shines but unfortunately after Sept in Ireland it rains alot. I can see alot more empty shop fronts very very soon. The city/towns we know it have finished unfortunately and its game over for so many businesses

and it not going to effect me so I can buy a house:rolleyes:

Iceman29

Bass Reeves wrote: »

and it not going to effect me so I can buy a house:rolleyes:

It'll effect everyone everyone in one shape or another but Dublin City is dead and judging from the towns I've visited they're in massive trouble and I'd imagine the banks are going to be taking a big hit then.

Genuinely can see alot of trouble coming down the tracks

cubatahavana

City center will take a hit, especially retail, but to say it is dead is an overstatement. A vaccine will come and things will improve. Not all sectors will be equally affected. Look at the likes of Facebook with all the increased activity. Healthcare services such as doctors, consultants, nurses, hospital and pharmacies will continue to be indispensable.

Banks will continue to operate, pubs, restaurants and retail will continue to operate as well, but only after the vaccine they’ll be able to return to normal. Some will be closed as they won’t survive and good people will lose their jobs.

This doesn’t mean that everyone will be affected the same way. Some people are still able to afford buying a home.

The Belly

cubatahavana wrote: »

City center will take a hit, especially retail, but to say it is dead is an overstatement. A vaccine will come and things will improve. Not all sectors will be equally affected. Look at the likes of Facebook with all the increased activity. Healthcare services such as doctors, consultants, nurses, hospital and pharmacies will continue to be indispensable.

Banks will continue to operate, pubs, restaurants and retail will continue to operate as well, but only after the vaccine they’ll be able to return to normal. Some will be closed as they won’t survive and good people will lose their jobs.

This doesn’t mean that everyone will be affected the same way. Some people are still able to afford buying a home.

I like your positivity. But it wont work like that.

Iceman29

cubatahavana wrote: »

City center will take a hit, especially retail, but to say it is dead is an overstatement. A vaccine will come and things will improve. Not all sectors will be equally affected. Look at the likes of Facebook with all the increased activity. Healthcare services such as doctors, consultants, nurses, hospital and pharmacies will continue to be indispensable.

Banks will continue to operate, pubs, restaurants and retail will continue to operate as well, but only after the vaccine they’ll be able to return to normal. Some will be closed as they won’t survive and good people will lose their jobs.

This doesn’t mean that everyone will be affected the same way. Some people are still able to afford buying a home.

City Centre is completely dead in my opinion and also other people who run restaurants /pubs. When were you in there last and what time of the day?

Agree, some jobs will be safe obviously but that's few and far between. A vaccine is a long way away unfortunately. Joe bloggs who has opened a cafe in town can't afford to wait around for the vaccine or for good sunny weather. Rents are sky high in Dublin, wages are expensive, and their organic coffee beans that they've been selling don't come cheap too along with light, heat, insurance etc etc.

This all leads to suppliers getting burnt, rent not paid and shops closing down. People losing their jobs, and people who took a punt on a business declaring bankrupt etc. Banks of course continue to loan but to very few I feel when the **** hits the fan. Once biten twice shy and all that.
Pubs restaurants and retail (not to mention all the companies on the Covid payments) will all take massive massive hits. Very few will survive without massive help but id be thinking the money will dry up very soon.

The Belly

Iceman29 wrote: »

City Centre is completely dead in my opinion and also other people who run restaurants /pubs. When were you in there last and what time of the day?

Agree, some jobs will be safe obviously but that's few and far between. A vaccine is a long way away unfortunately. Joe bloggs who has opened a cafe in town can't afford to wait around for the vaccine or for good sunny weather. Rents are sky high in Dublin, wages are expensive, and their organic coffee beans that they've been selling don't come cheap too along with light, heat, insurance etc etc.

This all leads to suppliers getting burnt, rent not paid and shops closing down. People losing their jobs, and people who took a punt on a business declaring bankrupt etc. Banks of course continue to loan but to very few I feel when the **** hits the fan. Once biten twice shy and all that.
Pubs restaurants and retail (not to mention all the companies on the Covid payments) will all take massive massive hits. Very few will survive without massive help but id be thinking the money will dry up very soon.

Sums it up really and forget the Banks car loan yes business loan no

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

City Centre is completely dead in my opinion and also other people who run restaurants /pubs. When were you in there last and what time of the day?

Agree, some jobs will be safe obviously but that's few and far between. A vaccine is a long way away unfortunately. Joe bloggs who has opened a cafe in town can't afford to wait around for the vaccine or for good sunny weather. Rents are sky high in Dublin, wages are expensive, and their organic coffee beans that they've been selling don't come cheap too along with light, heat, insurance etc etc.

This all leads to suppliers getting burnt, rent not paid and shops closing down. People losing their jobs, and people who took a punt on a business declaring bankrupt etc. Banks of course continue to loan but to very few I feel when the **** hits the fan. Once biten twice shy and all that.
Pubs restaurants and retail (not to mention all the companies on the Covid payments) will all take massive massive hits. Very few will survive without massive help but id be thinking the money will dry up very soon.

If you take your opinion to it’s logical conclusion the world is over basically . Is that what you think is going to happen ? If there is no vaccine is that it ?

Bass Reeves

People posting that this is the biggest recession since 1928 or biggest in history or biggest in last 40-50 years are forgetting about the nature of it. They are also forget about government's reactions to it.

First off technically it not a recession yet and it may never be one. It was a sharp downturn for 90 days but the economy has probably grown in this quarter.

The falloff in economic output was as shary as 1928 or an time in history but recovery is sharp. With the exception of pubs and restaurants most economic activities are returning to some level of output.

The other factor is governments reaction. The rich western countries are pumping money into the economy the EU is pumping 750 billion and on top of that EU states are pumping in money themselves. Ireland will pump 7-10 billion into the economy.

These financial weapons were not used in 1928

Pelezico

Bass Reeves wrote: »

People posting that this is the biggest recession since 1928 or biggest in history or biggest in last 40-50 years are forgetting about the nature of it. They are also forget about government's reactions to it.

First off technically it not a recession yet and it may never be one. It was a sharp downturn for 90 days but the economy has probably grown in this quarter.

The falloff in economic output was as shary as 1928 or an time in history but recovery is sharp. With the exception of pubs and restaurants most economic activities are returning to some level of output.

The other factor is governments reaction. The rich western countries are pumping money into the economy the EU is pumping 750 billion and on top of that EU states are pumping in money themselves. Ireland will pump 7-10 billion into the economy.

These financial weapons were not used in 1928

With the exception of pubs, restaurants, retail, travel and tourism, entertainment, meat production, commercial property, aircraft leasing, education sector....and.probably plenty of others.

Shure it will be fine lads.

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

If you take your opinion to it’s logical conclusion the world is over basically . Is that what you think is going to happen ? If there is no vaccine is that it ?

Is that what I said Cyrus? You seem to read people's posts and go off on your own tangent. Maybe read it a few times and see if you understand what was said before you hit the reply button.

I'm sure life will go on for alot but the majority of businesses are done with that are barely keeping their head above water.

Iceman29

Bass Reeves wrote: »

People posting that this is the biggest recession since 1928 or biggest in history or biggest in last 40-50 years are forgetting about the nature of it. They are also forget about government's reactions to it.

First off technically it not a recession yet and it may never be one. It was a sharp downturn for 90 days but the economy has probably grown in this quarter.

The falloff in economic output was as shary as 1928 or an time in history but recovery is sharp. With the exception of pubs and restaurants most economic activities are returning to some level of output.

The other factor is governments reaction. The rich western countries are pumping money into the economy the EU is pumping 750 billion and on top of that EU states are pumping in money themselves. Ireland will pump 7-10 billion into the economy.

These financial weapons were not used in 1928

Sweet! We are grand so. We have someone on boards that knows more than all the heads of all the major economies who are suggesting major trouble but it's grand Bass Reeves knows the truth.

Maybe Bass Reeves should contact all the heads of the economies and suggest that they have financial weapons to use before they suggested such extreme recessions.....

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

If you take your opinion to it’s logical conclusion the world is over basically . Is that what you think is going to happen ? If there is no vaccine is that it ?

Capitalism is changed now indefinitely. I said it before and I'll say it again.house prices will fall here in the short , medium and long run. My outlook on house prices is bearish. I'm trying to manage costs to be as low as possible now. When I buy I think prices will continue to fall. We've gone off a cliff and momentum is carrying us forward. Soon gravity will kick in.

smurgen

One thing I find astounding is how we're lead to believe we were in a teflon economy to begin with anyway. There are things I see that do not square with what we are fed on demand,land and market dynamics. If I was through Cork City for example the amount of dereliction is mind blowing. There are long term vacancies in many many parts of the city centre. E.g Washington Street with the square deal furniture building. One of the largest in the city left vacant along time now. Across the road the indigo cafe and apartments above them all abandoned, further up the road what was formerly the thirsty scholar bar I think left empty years now. Then North main Street is almost completely abandoned with buildings partially collapsed.
This all happened during our supposed recovery and boom.

JamesMason

Cyrus wrote: »

If you take your opinion to it’s logical conclusion the world is over basically . Is that what you think is going to happen ? If there is no vaccine is that it ?

Yes frankly. Care to put a time frame on the gap between the development of a safe vaccine, and when the general public can be vaccinated en masse? What are the struggling businesses supposed to do in the meantime? What effect will that have on apartment prices in say, city centres, for example?

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Capitalism is changed now indefinitely. I said it before and I'll say it again.house prices will fall here in the short , medium and long run. My outlook on house prices is bearish. I'm trying to manage costs to be as low as possible now. When I buy I think prices will continue to fall. We've gone off a cliff and momentum is carrying us forward. Soon gravity will kick in.

What do you mean by long run? Property prices will fall forever? That doesn’t make sense. I think there will be decreases in prices over short to medium term (I think medium terms is 24-30 months).

smurgen

Hubertj wrote: »

What do you mean by long run? Property prices will fall forever? That doesn’t make sense. I think there will be decreases in prices over short to medium term (I think medium terms is 24-30 months).

I mean I don't see anything that will return to growth that we seen. We'll have population growth but it will be offset by emigration or foreign workers returning home. I can't see the multinationals hiring here like they did. And I can see them allowing more jobs to move overseas. The US multinationals are onshoring their operations and well as tax. Many others are going to switch to work from anywhere eventually.

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

I mean I don't see anything that will return to growth that we seen. We'll have population growth but it will be offset by emigration or foreign workers returning home. I can't see the multinationals hiring here like they did. And I can see them allowing more jobs to move overseas. The US multinationals are onshoring their operations and well as tax. Many others are going to switch to work from anywhere eventually.

MNCs are reshoring operations to the US to any great extent. That is factually incorrect but this isn’t the forum to discuss it. They have moved funds back to US to take advantage of tax. That may change again depending on the next president, policy etc....
Recruitment will be hit short to medium term as well.
Prices have to level out at some stage or else developers can’t build a business case to build... Falling land prices should help, government’policy’ etc...

PropQueries

In the Sunday Business Post today, a student accommodation provider down near the Three Arena in Dublin is seeking planning permission to rent 599 bed spaces to non students.

That's the equivalent of 300 two-bed apartments entering the regular residential market that would normally take up to 24 months to build.

The article link is here: https://www.businesspost.ie/residential/plan-to-lease-student-digs-to-others-is-slated-as-co-living-by-the-back-door-b14628f6

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

In the Sunday Business Post today, a student accommodation provider down near the Three Arena in Dublin is seeking planning permission to rent 599 bed spaces to non students.

That's the equivalent of 300 two-bed apartments entering the regular residential market that would normally take up to 24 months to build.

The article link is here: https://www.businesspost.ie/residential/plan-to-lease-student-digs-to-others-is-slated-as-co-living-by-the-back-door-b14628f6

Why do the SF muppets dislike co living developments so much? They work great in other countries.

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

Why do the SF muppets dislike co living developments so much? They work great in other countries.

As short term accommodation solutions- often while residents (who aren't tenants) are seeking alternate more long term accommodation that better suits their needs. In a lot of cases it also caters to a transient workforce who don't know how long they may be working in a particular location and do not wish to put down roots.

Certainly, it has a place in the accommodation mix- but it shouldn't be sold as something it patently is not- and it also should be appropriately priced- cognisant of the fact that the residents do not have the rights that a tenant would have.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

As short term accommodation solutions- often while residents (who aren't tenants) are seeking alternate more long term accommodation that better suits their needs. In a lot of cases it also caters to a transient workforce who don't know how long they may be working in a particular location and do not wish to put down roots.

Certainly, it has a place in the accommodation mix- but it shouldn't be sold as something it patently is not- and it also should be appropriately priced- cognisant of the fact that the residents do not have the rights that a tenant would have.

Yes my brother used it short term when he first move to Amsterdam. Have developers here stated it’s intended for long term?

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

Is that what I said Cyrus? You seem to read people's posts and go off on your own tangent. Maybe read it a few times and see if you understand what was said before you hit the reply button.

I'm sure life will go on for alot but the majority of businesses are done with that are barely keeping their head above water.

It’s exactly what you said and it’s what you are saying again the majority of business are done .

Trust me your posts aren’t that insightful but that they need to be read more than once