Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

Capitalism is changed now indefinitely.

Capitalism is what will get us out of this and it will be alive and well .

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

As short term accommodation solutions- often while residents (who aren't tenants) are seeking alternate more long term accommodation that better suits their needs. In a lot of cases it also caters to a transient workforce who don't know how long they may be working in a particular location and do not wish to put down roots.

Certainly, it has a place in the accommodation mix- but it shouldn't be sold as something it patently is not- and it also should be appropriately priced- cognisant of the fact that the residents do not have the rights that a tenant would have.

I think you're right. Each unit is basically the same as a 6 bedroom house. I think the prices will drop as a significant amount of student accommodation units have been built in the city over the past few years and market forces will begin to dictate rental prices from now on.

The good thing, from a renters perspective, is that these are all now ready to be rented out in their thousands and renters don't have to wait 2 to 3 years for planning and build time, given the collapse in the student rental market. I don't think the demand for this amount of dedicated student accommodation at the prices they were seeking was there to begin with.

JJJackal

PropQueries wrote: »

In the Sunday Business Post today, a student accommodation provider down near the Three Arena in Dublin is seeking planning permission to rent 599 bed spaces to non students.

That's the equivalent of 300 two-bed apartments entering the regular residential market that would normally take up to 24 months to build.

The article link is here: https://www.businesspost.ie/residential/plan-to-lease-student-digs-to-others-is-slated-as-co-living-by-the-back-door-b14628f6

Do you think this will go straight through planning?

Cyrus

JamesMason wrote: »

Yes frankly. Care to put a time frame on the gap between the development of a safe vaccine, and when the general public can be vaccinated en masse? What are the struggling businesses supposed to do in the meantime? What effect will that have on apartment prices in say, city centres, for example?

Have a look at the daily death rates now that the majority getting it are under 60

How long do you think it makes sense to kill the economy when no one is dying ?

And iceman why are you thanking that post if you maintain my understanding of your original post was incorrect?

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Yes my brother used it short term when he first move to Amsterdam. Have developers here stated it’s intended for long term?

In relation to this student accommodation, they were seeking to change its use from student to regular residential use last year as well. So, I think, in this instance anyway, they will be seeking long-term change of use.

PropQueries

JJJackal wrote: »

Do you think this will go straight through planning?

I'm not sure. But I can't see the Government being allowed to sit back if on one side there are homeless families and then on the other side there are thousands of empty bed spaces in these blocks all around Dublin City.

Many of the bed spaces in these units were already empty pre-covid, so I think a significant proportion of these were always going to enter the normal residential market at some point. The current pandemic is just speeding up the process.

Wanderer78

Cyrus wrote:

Capitalism is what will get us out of this and it will be alive and well .

Completely agree, but it certainly won't be our current forum of it, I.e. free market libertarianism

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s exactly what you said and it’s what you are saying again the majority of business are done .

Trust me your posts aren’t that insightful but that they need to be read more than once

So you're telling me what I'm saying now are ya??? Hahaha you're unreal. I hope you'll be still posting in a years time so I can have a bigger laugh at you then.

For 5 mins you should maybe take your head out of your.....

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

So you're telling me what I'm saying now are ya??? Hahaha you're unreal. I hope you'll be still posting in a years time so I can have a bigger laugh at you then.

For 5 mins you should maybe take your head out of your.....

Well I’ve been around for over a decade so I won’t be going anywhere but if your prophecies come through there probably won’t be an internet .

And if you aren’t getting your point across try articulate yourself a little better , maybe take honours English when you go on to the do the leaving cert.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Capitalism is what will get us out of this and it will be alive and well .

Ya? So no bailouts so? It's funny I thought the Fed and the ECB were having to give stimulus. Unless they're private ventures now aswell. And if a publically funded university finds the vaccine that'll be capitalism too right?

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Ya? So no bailouts so? It's funny I thought the Fed and the ECB were having to give stimulus. Unless they're private ventures now aswell. And if a publically funded university finds the vaccine that'll be capitalism too right?

Where do they get the money?

JJJackal

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not sure. But I can't see the Government being allowed to sit back if on one side there are homeless families and then on the other side there are thousands of empty bed spaces in these blocks all around Dublin City.

Many of the bed spaces in these units were already empty pre-covid, so I think a significant proportion of these were always going to enter the normal residential market at some point. The current pandemic is just speeding up the process.

I cant see a trend of student accommodation being converted to co-living etc being allowed

landofthetree

PropQueries wrote: »

In the Sunday Business Post today, a student accommodation provider down near the Three Arena in Dublin is seeking planning permission to rent 599 bed spaces to non students.

That's the equivalent of 300 two-bed apartments entering the regular residential market that would normally take up to 24 months to build.

The article link is here: https://www.businesspost.ie/residential/plan-to-lease-student-digs-to-others-is-slated-as-co-living-by-the-back-door-b14628f6

Tens of thousands of workers in construction+tourism are leaving Dublin. The market will be flooded with property.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

Ya? So no bailouts so? It's funny I thought the Fed and the ECB were having to give stimulus. Unless they're private ventures now aswell. And if a publically funded university finds the vaccine that'll be capitalism too right?

Where do there funds come from ?

And where does the public universities funding come from ?

PropQueries

JJJackal wrote: »

I cant see a trend of student accommodation being converted to co-living etc being allowed

Maybe. But each unit is the equivalent of a 6 bedroom family apartment.

So, if there is demand for what are effectively 6 bedroom family apartments and the developers also want to see them in the market as such, the only obstruction is the Government.

Maybe the state will allow thousands of potential family homes to remain vacant for at least the next twelve months, but it seems like an easy win for everyone involved i.e. the developers get their rental income and the state makes a significant dent in or finally eliminates the number of homeless families in the capital.

landofthetree

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Completely agree, but it certainly won't be our current forum of it, I.e. free market libertarianism

The irish property market is very far from free market libertarianism. Plus its over regulated in the planning and pre construction stage.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

That's the equivalent of 300 two-bed apartments entering the regular residential market that would normally take up to 24 months to build.

I'd be shocked if these are for regular resedential given their location near the point, Aviva and Luas link to IFSC and beyond. These will be converted to short term let for transient workers and concert/sporting events. Far more financially lucrative than students, resedential letting

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe. But each unit is the equivalent of a 6 bedroom family apartment.

So, if there is demand for what are effectively 6 bedroom family apartments and the developers also want to see them in the market as such, the only obstruction is the Government.

Maybe the state will allow thousands of potential family homes to remain vacant for at least the next twelve months, but it seems like an easy win for everyone involved i.e. the developers get their rental income and the state makes a significant dent in or finally eliminates the number of homeless families in the capital.

I think the media coverage distorts the number of housing units in Dublin that is required to finally end the homeless problem. While there are c. 8,000 homeless people in Ireland, of these c. 4,000 are in Dublin.

However, this c. 4,000 figure for Dublin includes c. 413 families, so the number of homes needed is not 4,000 but more like 500 to 600 homes to finally put an end to it. Very little when you think about it and all the hassle it has caused the Government over the years.

So, the solution is there and ready to be implemented pretty much immediately. Why would they block it? Maybe they will.

landofthetree

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd be shocked if these are for regular resedential given their location near the point, Aviva and Luas link to IFSC and beyond. These will be converted to short term let for transient workers and concert/sporting events. Far more financially lucrative than students, resedential letting

But there are no concerts/sporting events that the public can attend till covid is over.

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

I'd be shocked if these are for regular resedential given their location near the point, Aviva and Luas link to IFSC and beyond. These will be converted to short term let for transient workers and concert/sporting events. Far more financially lucrative than students, resedential letting

I don't think they would get planning permission for a change of use to short-term letting. That would basically make them a hotel and I'm sure the hotels around them would object.

The student market is basically dried up for the next 12 months at a minimum and my understanding is that they were finding it difficult to rent them to students even pre-covid.

The only solution left that will benefit both the owners of the block and the Government is residential use. It's a win-win all round so I think there's a strong probability it will pass.

The state may say it's only for 12 months (to keep the objectors away), but after the 12 month period, they will keep extending the permission. It's easier that way for everyone.

Ozark707

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe. But each unit is the equivalent of a 6 bedroom family apartment.

So, if there is demand for what are effectively 6 bedroom family apartments and the developers also want to see them in the market as such, the only obstruction is the Government.

Maybe the state will allow thousands of potential family homes to remain vacant for at least the next twelve months, but it seems like an easy win for everyone involved i.e. the developers get their rental income and the state makes a significant dent in or finally eliminates the number of homeless families in the capital.

I am not sure of how many families on the housing list require a 6 bed apt. I would have thought this will be aimed at younger people. If the developers think they can rent these at the current rates they look from students they could be vacant for quite a while longer...

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Why do the SF muppets dislike co living developments so much? They work great in other countries.

The key point "other countries".
SF raise a valid point in that these developments will drive up land prices (more rent payers per sq metre than traditional builds) and reduce the quality of future developments. This will be done while charging rents for individual bedroom units that would be profitable in an efficiently run affordable housing scheme delivering higher quality units.

In addition the proponents of these developments pay little or no tax while much of the rent they charge is linked to the infrastructure around there developments that were provided using taxpayers money

Hubertj wrote:

Yes my brother used it short term when he first move to Amsterdam. Have developers here stated it’s intended for long term?

The Dutch housing model is light years away from the clusterfu** housing market in ireland.
The market dictates what gets built in Ireland whereas citizens needs are the driver of construction in Holland

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

I am not sure of how many families on the housing list require a 6 bed apt. I would have thought this will be aimed at younger people. If the developers think they can rent these at the current rates they look from students they could be vacant for quite a while longer...

True. But most of the homeless people in Dublin are actually families. So, if there is a couple with 4 kids, that's 5 of the 6 rooms already taken with a spare room left over.

It's a great solution, can be implemented pretty much immediately and at significantly less cost (but still ridiculously expensive) than their current method of using hotels etc.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

I don't think they would get planning permission for a change of use to short-term letting. That would basically make them a hotel and I'm sure the hotels around them would object.

Change to residential and then milk it for everything you can get out of it as has been the case with resedential property in strategic locations.
There are quiet a number of posters on here that are openly discussing short term letting of resedential property

Ref concerts and sporting events will return eventually and most are held during the academic year hence the need to get rid of the students

Ozark707

Villa05 wrote: »

Change to residential and then milk it for everything you can get out of it as has been the case with resedential property in strategic locations.
There are quiet a number of posters on here that are openly discussing short term letting of resedential property

Ref concerts and sporting events will return eventually and most are held during the academic year hence the need to get rid of the students

A room in one of these 6 beds was ~240pw...so over 6k a month per unit. There is not a hope in hell that they will be able to obtain that in the normal market so I think they will want to go back to students ASAP. I would have my doubts as to whether the student market will come back as strong as before and there are a plethora of developments that were going to come on stream in the next 2-3 years. Either way this will alleviate pressure. Maybe it can help with DP as the new government have stated that they want to see an end to it.

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

Change to residential and then milk it for everything you can get out of it as has been the case with resedential property in strategic locations.
There are quiet a number of posters on here that are openly discussing short term letting of resedential property

Ref concerts and sporting events will return eventually and most are held during the academic year hence the need to get rid of the students

I don't think tourism will return to previous levels for at least the next 3 to 4 years.

It's up to property owners if they're willing to receive no income for the next year or two in the hope of a return to a normality that may never come or cash in now, approach the council and offer to let their vacant units for the next twelve or more months and receive some income instead of none.

And, remember, until tourism returns, we will be still building and adding additional supply each and every year. If we stop building, the construction workers etc. leave so supply and demand are going to match out sooner rather than later in either case.

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

A room in one of these 6 beds was ~240pw...so over 6k a month per unit. There is not a hope in hell that they will be able to obtain that in the normal market so I think they will want to go back to students ASAP. I would have my doubts as to whether the student market will come back as strong as before and there are a plethora of developments that were going to come on stream in the next 2-3 years. Either way this will alleviate pressure. Maybe it can help with DP as the new government have stated that they want to see an end to it.

My understanding is that they weren't able to fully rent them even pre-covid. The €240 per week was only achievable prior to the extra thousands that have entered the market in the past 2 years alone.

The student prices were going to drop very soon in either case, so signing an e.g. 25 year lease with the council would seem like a logical business decision in their case, which is what I assume they may eventually look to do.

Ozark707

PropQueries wrote: »

My understanding is that they weren't able to fully rent them even pre-covid. The €240 per week was only achievable prior to the extra thousands that have entered the market in the past 2 years alone.

The student prices were going to drop very soon in either case, so signing an e.g. 25 year lease with the council would seem like a logical business decision in their case, which is what I assume they may eventually look to do.

I didn't realise they were struggling to let them pre-Covid but that is unsurprising given the price they were looking for. Pointless having lots of (extra) vacant blocks in the cities given we still have a shortage of accommodation.

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

I didn't realise they were struggling to let them pre-Covid but that is unsurprising given the price they were looking for. Pointless having lots of (extra) vacant blocks in the cities given we still have a shortage of accommodation.

Looks like they all seem to be seeking some form of change of use. The Times last week reported:

"...Global Student Accommodation (GSA)... has sought permission from Dublin council for temporary use of student accommodation at 25-29 Dominick Street Upper and 274 North Circular Road in Dublin 7 for tourist or visitor accommodation".

Given that the 'tourist' thing isn't going to probably happen, I think people should concentrate on what they define as 'visitor' accommodation.

The link is here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/global-student-accommodation-seeks-to-bed-down-tourists-in-dublin-college-digs-fh7vqjxqt

Ozark707

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like they all seem to be seeking some form of change of use. The Times last week reported:

"...Global Student Accommodation (GSA)... has sought permission from Dublin council for temporary use of student accommodation at 25-29 Dominick Street Upper and 274 North Circular Road in Dublin 7 for tourist or visitor accommodation".

Given that the 'tourist' thing isn't going to probably happen, I think people should concentrate on what they define as 'visitor' accommodation.

The link is here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/global-student-accommodation-seeks-to-bed-down-tourists-in-dublin-college-digs-fh7vqjxqt

Thanks for this update. I was out in Belfield a few months back and was completely taken aback by what they are building there. If they don't get a huge increase in numbers you would worry about what will happen with all this supply. There is a price limit to what Irish students will pay (and it is not at the levels what the likes of the one at the Point were looking for) so unless non-EU students really come in greater numbers then it will be a real struggle.

Maybe if a vaccine comes along sometime next year it will recover.