Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

errlloyd

Ozark707 wrote: »

Thanks for this update. I was out in Belfield a few months back and was completely taken aback by what they are building there. If they don't get a huge increase in numbers you would worry about what will happen with all this supply. There is a price limit to what Irish students will pay (and it is not at the levels what the likes of the one at the Point were looking for) so unless non-EU students really come in greater numbers then it will be a real struggle.

Maybe if a vaccine comes along sometime next year it will recover.

UCD will make a killing on them. Its almost guaranteed. Even if they only rent a double room for 500 a month, it's high density, Co living, on land they already owned.

I went to UCD during the trough of the recession, and even then it was always fully subscribed

PropQueries

errlloyd wrote: »

UCD will make a killing on them. Its almost guaranteed. Even if they only rent a double room for 500 a month, it's high density, Co living, on land they already owned.

I went to UCD during the trough of the recession, and even then it was always fully subscribed

According to the Irish Times, UCD 'is currently constructing new residences and a student village. This development is costing in the region of €500m and is funded largely through bank loans".

That's some serious debt to be paid back if the students don't return to the campus in serious numbers or eventually decide that online learning is just as good as on-campus learning.

I suppose the questions for future students is the question: Why attend lectures at UCD (notwithstanding the 'benefits' of a campus 'experience'), if they can get thought by lecturers online from Harvard or Oxford for the same or even less money?

The article about the UCD debt is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/ucd-to-increase-campus-rent-by-12-over-three-years-1.4163042

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times, UCD 'is currently constructing new residences and a student village. This development is costing in the region of €500m and is funded largely through bank loans".

That's some serious debt to be paid back if the students don't return to the campus in serious numbers or eventually decide that online learning is just as good as on-campus learning.

I suppose the questions for future students is the question: Why attend lectures at UCD (notwithstanding the 'benefits' of a campus 'experience'), if they can get thought by lecturers online from Harvard or Oxford for the same or even less money?

The article about the UCD debt is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/ucd-to-increase-campus-rent-by-12-over-three-years-1.4163042

Yes that’s right. Harvard offers online undergraduate courses. Not sure if you’re misinformed or lying to try and make a point.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Yes that’s right. Harvard offers online undergraduate courses. Not sure if you’re misinformed or lying to try and make a point.

You're correct in that they don't offer full undergraduate or masters courses fully online yet. But they do offer certificate courses online. So they have infrastructure in place.

If all universities have been hit financially by this crisis, it will be the Harvards and Oxfords of the university world who can quickly extend this into full undergraduate courses for students worldwide in order to financially gain from their existing brand.

It may not happen this year or next, but in the next 5 years or so, I'd say it's almost guaranteed. It's money sitting on the table for them and it would make financial sense for them to go and claim it.

errlloyd

Capacity for 2,200 in UCD's development. At 10k annually plus a bit over the summer they could be making up to 25m per year at the high end. As well as probably driving revenue for other campus entities, restaurants, bars and shops.

Still 500m seems high to build on greenfield land they already own.

PropQueries

errlloyd wrote: »

Capacity for 2,200 in UCD's development. At 10k annually plus a bit over the summer they could be making up to 25m per year at the high end. As well as probably driving revenue for other campus entities, restaurants, bars and shops.

Still 500m seems high to build on greenfield land they already own.

According to the Irish Times, that was on top of "University College Dublin (UCD) has spent several million euro buying premium south Dublin houses neighbouring its Belfield campus in recent years, as part of a long-term plan to expand the university’s boundaries."

The Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/ucd-spending-millions-buying-premium-south-dublin-homes-1.4167119

PropQueries

errlloyd wrote: »

Capacity for 2,200 in UCD's development. At 10k annually plus a bit over the summer they could be making up to 25m per year at the high end. As well as probably driving revenue for other campus entities, restaurants, bars and shops.

Still 500m seems high to build on greenfield land they already own.

On those figures, they probably stack up alright. I wonder did they factor in the amount of private sector student accommodation being built alongside their own, as that would have changed the future cashflow projections significantly in relation to the future rents they could charge. UCD should have realised they don't operate in a vacuum.

Pelezico

Yeah..just what I like...a discussion about universities.....tangential to the main topic by quite a bit.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Yeah..just what I like...a discussion about universities.....tangential to the main topic by quite a bit.

It was mostly about the supply and demand for student accommodation and if it was wise for UCD to borrow €500 million to fund their student accommodation building programme.

However, point taken and it did veer off a bit. Apologies.

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

Well I’ve been around for over a decade so I won’t be going anywhere but if your prophecies come through there probably won’t be an internet .

And if you aren’t getting your point across try articulate yourself a little better , maybe take honours English when you go on to the do the leaving cert.

Over a decade of talking nonsense.

Maybe go back to the Ann and Barry books, the Edith Blyton ones aren't working out for ya too well. Think you're taking the story of the famous five economic miricles a bit too literal

stinger31

Iceman29 wrote: »

Over a decade of talking nonsense.

Maybe go back to the Ann and Barry books, the Edith Blyton ones aren't working out for ya too well. Think you're taking the story of the famous five economic miricles a bit too literal

Hahaha brilliant

Graham

Mod Note

Iceman29 / Cyrus / Stinger31, cop yourselves on.

Any more of the personal digs will not go down well.

Do not reply to this post.

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

Over a decade of talking nonsense.

Maybe go back to the Ann and Barry books, the Edith Blyton ones aren't working out for ya too well. Think you're taking the story of the famous five economic miricles a bit too literal

It’s Enid Blyton

As I’ve said before I have a house, I made my own determination on the market and my personal circumstances and bought at the time that made sense for me. I didn’t go online and ask strangers what they thought or try will prices down with amateur economic analysis or hope.

I don’t have any skin in this particular game right now, but despite your and other posters prophecies of doom over the past 3/4 months the facts have been on one side and it isn’t yours .

Maybe prices will drop somewhat but the collapse of the property market you are all hoping for (while assuming you will remain unscathed if it comes ) hasn’t materialised and doesn’t look like it will in the foreseeable.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

The main from thing from this thread is never buy anything. It will always be cheaper in a year until that year rolls around and then it's next year.

Best off living homeless until you get a good deal on a house. Then don't buy it because it will fall further.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

It was mostly about the supply and demand for student accommodation and if it was wise for UCD to borrow €500 million to fund their student accommodation building programme.

However, point taken and it did veer off a bit. Apologies.

It was interesting...universities and their future is a huge issue in the post covid world....UK universities in a real panic...where it is a big business.

smurgen

MattS1 wrote: »

The main from thing from this thread is never buy anything. It will always be cheaper in a year until that year rolls around and then it's next year.

Best off living homeless until you get a good deal on a house. Then don't buy it because it will fall further.

The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.

Pelezico

smurgen wrote: »

The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.

Hilarious. Do you remember in the last boom we exported house price inflation to all sorts of places around the globe?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

smurgen wrote: »

The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.

Or just buy when you can afford it and if it suits your needs for 5-10 years minimum?

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.

Is anyone saying prices are going up ? Genuinely ?

kippy

Cyrus wrote: »

Capitalism is what will get us out of this and it will be alive and well .

If you class massive debt write-offs as capitalism then yes.

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.

Main thing I’ve taken from this thread is that everyone is an expert and has the solution. I’ve also learned there are still people whining about the last recession, which is a sad sad way to live life and I’m glad I don’t know people with that outlook. Some people even think this can be solved by socialist bolloxology because that works so well everywhere else. Others think prices won’t be significantly impacted which is admirably optimistic in my opinion.

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

Main thing I’ve taken from this thread is that everyone is an expert and has the solution. I’ve also learned there are still people whining about the last recession, which is a sad sad way to live life and I’m glad I don’t know people with that outlook. Some people even think this can be solved by socialist bolloxology because that works so well everywhere else. Others think prices won’t be significantly impacted which is admirably optimistic in my opinion.

Look at history stick to facts. If you do it tends to repeat it self.

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

Look at history stick to facts. If you do it tends to repeat it self.

Facts appear to be optional in many ‘discussions’

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

Facts appear to be optional in many ‘discussions’

Yes they do but unless there is or was a monumental change they will follow then same course

TheSheriff

smurgen wrote: »

The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.

I think you've been reading a different thread to be honest.......

Ridiculous post, nobody is promoting the above.

JJJackal

Houses need to fall by X amount per year to make it worth waiting to buy and continuing to rent - if buying a house is a long term objective

X depends on the current price of rent, current interest repayments etc

If a 300,000 euro house falls by 1% per year indefinitely (i.e. 3,000 in year 1), you would have to think that buying instead of renting makes sense

If a 300,000 euro house falls by 5% per year (i.e. 15,000 in year 1) for a few years waiting makes sense

The problem which has always existed is no one knows the trajectory of house prices

Everything mentioned on this thread to date is speculation

Austria!

Villa05 wrote: »

SF raise a valid point in that these developments will drive up land prices (more rent payers per sq metre than traditional builds)

Am I missing something?

We need more people per sq metre to solve housing.

PropQueries

Interesting article if interested in the future of WFH where fund manager Schroders has stated it will allow thousands of its employees in London to continue working from home even after the pandemic.

Article is here: https://www.cityam.com/schroders-becomes-first-major-city-firm-to-make-home-working-permanent/

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

I think you've been reading a different thread to be honest.......

Ridiculous post, nobody is promoting the above.

In fairness, it's tongue in cheek and sarcastically exaggerated (as is the "Best off living homeless until you get a good deal on a house. Then don't buy it because it will fall further" post) but are the underlying points really that ridiculous?

smurgen wrote: »

The main thing i've taken from this thread is that you need to buy now. Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. If you're trying to buy make sure you go at least 50k over asking. It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply.

You need to buy now? Plenty of advice suggesting better to buy now and get on with your life than waiting for ever.

Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. Plenty of advice saying forget the short term fluctuations, long term prices will always go up.

It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Plenty of advice saying you are better off owning than renting, and not just because of the price differential.

Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Granted, have not seen much of this comment.

Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply. This is trotted out repeatedly.

As far as I can see there are plenty promoting all of the above bar wages will always rise.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

In fairness, it's tongue in cheek and sarcastically exaggerated (as is the "Best off living homeless until you get a good deal on a house. Then don't buy it because it will fall further" post) but are the underlying points really that ridiculous?



You need to buy now? Plenty of advice suggesting better to buy now and get on with your life than waiting for ever.

Beg borrow and steal to get a house because they'll always go up. Plenty of advice saying forget the short term fluctuations, long term prices will always go up.

It'll be cheaper that way because rent is definitely going to grow at a rate faster than wages. Plenty of advice saying you are better off owning than renting, and not just because of the price differential.

Oh and don't worry either,people will always be employed and your wages will always rise. Granted, have not seen much of this comment.

Plus even if the economy collapses demand will stay the same because house prices in Ireland are only linked to housing supply. This is trotted out repeatedly.

As far as I can see there are plenty promoting all of the above bar wages will always rise.

You haven’t included the “theory” about there being no shortage of accommodation.