Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

alias no.9

Bass Reeves wrote: »

As I posted Consultants/contractors if genuinely that, then they are not an issue. However it more the idea that Apple or Google will allow thousands of employees who are WFH to live in countries other than Ireland. If they do then they will be libel for tax and social insurance in that country, they must register as an employer there. From there the question of VAT on work they do and how profits are taxed comes into play.

More to the point, if pay rates in that country are lower than Ireland, they will be shunted down to the local pay rates before you can say boo.

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

That’s a bit smart, you know what he meant. And despite your scepticism this is a very real risk for a lot of companies. Even pre Covid.

Spain is an especially aggressive jurisdiction

If someone offers me advice....he better spell liable correctly. Sorry but that is how I feel.

He tried twice and then corrected himself.

It is like your and you are. These things matter to me.

Graham

Mod Note

Pelezico, that's not necessary or welcome. Feel free to take your discussion to the English forum.

Bass Reeves

Pelezico wrote: »

If someone offers me advice....he better spell liable correctly. Sorry but that is how I feel.

He tried twice and then corrected himself.

It is like your and you are. These things matter to me.

Sorry I left school and home at 15 so my spelling is not great, as I was leaving I played pocket billard, I worked for nearly 40 years and I am semi retired now. I own my own home, a holiday home, two rental properties and a farm. I have put two kids through college and the third is in final year. Nobody handed me anything.

So I do not really f@@King care about miss spelling liable as libel as long as the meaning is clear. If a F@@king idiot wants to make an issue about it so be it.

I was not offering any f@@king idiot advice I was pointing issues that will arise for non nationals and other who will not be allowed to base themselves outside Ireland

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

No, I reckon the electorate will pull support from the government (which to date have been a disaster, won't last long) in favour of a government that can deliver required housing in an efficient manner. The proportion of the electorate that are renting plus those that own but are impacted by high rents through their children being priced out of the market is at a tipping point.

Either the Gov changes policy or the government changes.

The only thing I will say is the state has a long long history of paying stupid money and your deluded if you think there is an alternative to the current government who are going to take support away if anything the opposition as it currently stands are far more left leaning and will be giving more support and money away. Unless you seen a party who have actively propositioned this in their manifestos during the elections. By the way I am not arguing with you I think you spot on with regards to the way government are handling things but I cannot see it changing if Sinn Fein get in they will be throwing money at the homeless or should I say those without their own house.

fliball123

Just another update myhome down over 100 properties again since Monday morning. The supply numbers is depressing at the moment.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

Just another update myhome down over 100 properties again since Monday morning. The supply numbers is depressing at the moment.

Will be interesting to see myhome adds numbers in the coming weeks.
Second half of August and all September is typically of 6-7 weeks of growth in number of adds.

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

Will be interesting to see myhome adds numbers in the coming weeks.
Second half of August and all September is typically of 6-7 weeks of growth in number of adds.

It sure will but in 6 months over 3k less properties that is some reduction to supply. If only we had a crystal ball

PropQueries

David McWilliams Irish Times article on Saturday " It is time for a major property reset", is now free to read on his blog.

Link here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset/

OwlsZat

PropQueries wrote: »

David McWilliams Irish Times article on Saturday " It is time for a major property reset", is now free to read on his blog.

Link here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset/

Stands to reason. How in the honour of God could our price per sq meter justify being more expensive than Paris, Barcelona Brussels, talk about a bubble...

I'm noticing that the property supply has almost dried up entirely. I'm liking the slow down of the release of property. People are continuing to die so the property must be stockpiling, who could be slowing the release of "fair deal" property for example?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

The only thing I will say is the state has a long long history of paying stupid money and your deluded if you think there is an alternative to the current government who are going to take support away if anything the opposition as it currently stands are far more left leaning and will be giving more support and money away. Unless you seen a party who have actively propositioned this in their manifestos during the elections. By the way I am not arguing with you I think you spot on with regards to the way government are handling things but I cannot see it changing if Sinn Fein get in they will be throwing money at the homeless or should I say those without their own house.

Governments tend to act in the interests of their preferred voting demographics.

Currently for FG/FF this constitutes middle class homeowners, and as such the two big parties seem unlikely to do what is required to fix the housing market because it will harm their voting demographic in the form of falling property prices.

If the government wish to maintain the asset prices for their voters they have little choice but to throw money at the homeless/non property owning classes.

However this is a short/medium term situation.

Longer term if property prices continue to move out of reach of the younger non property owning classes, demographics dictate that this bloc will become larger and larger, and thus all parties will pursue policies that will appeal to this bloc.

For FF/FG, at some stage the political maths will indicate it is better to take radical action to solve the problems of this key voting cohort, at the expense of their traditionally loyal voters, rather than allow SF and the left to capitalise.

Of course there is a danger they may leave it too late, and we have an SF and PBP coalition and all that would entail.

Be careful what you wish for and all that!

OwlsZat

schmittel wrote: »

Currently for FG/FF this constitutes middle-class homeowners, and as such the two big parties seem unlikely to do what is required to fix the housing market because it will harm their voting demographic in the form of falling property prices.

Ah, the great high property price fallacy. The magic money hoax machine that creates an illusion of wealth but really only creates debt and slavery. These same voters are realising their children won't afford homes close to them to nurse them into their older years. Bitter pill to swallow.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

It sure will but in 6 months over 3k less properties that is some reduction to supply. If only we had a crystal ball

Another point to add.
I see in January, which is lowest activity, and typically month with lowest property numbers, had following number of adds in Jan 2020:
Nationally: 18.900
Dublin: 4.100

Numbers of adds outside Dublin falling much faster than Dublin Co.
There could be a case that we may see prices Nationally and in Dublin moving in 2 different directions.. not sure though, just speculating..

Assetbacked

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-fall-0-7-as-virus-applies-hand-brake-to-market-1.4333085?mode=amp

"Dublin house prices fall 0.7% as virus applies hand brake to market" is the headline.

"The figures show prices nationally rose by just 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to June with consumers, banks and developers effectively on pause as a result of virus-containment measures.

The slowdown in activity, however, triggered a 0.7 per cent drop in prices year on year in Dublin."

Bearing in mind these figures are based on the level of activity being 33% lower than what it was last year so they have not incorporated any fallout whatsoever as a result of covid. This is reflected in this quote;

"Experts say the latest figures primarily reflect activity before the coronavirus-related shutdown and that it maybe several months before the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is reflected in headline prices."

This stands to reason; people are WFH, Schools aren't even back, pandemic support payments are still being paid etc so of course it will take months to see the fallout. Activity will be limited this side of Christmas so it will be Q1 2021 when transactions start picking up again which means Q2 or even Q3 reports where we can actually see the fallout from covid.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Governments tend to act in the interests of their preferred voting demographics.

Currently for FG/FF this constitutes middle class homeowners, and as such the two big parties seem unlikely to do what is required to fix the housing market because it will harm their voting demographic in the form of falling property prices.

If the government wish to maintain the asset prices for their voters they have little choice but to throw money at the homeless/non property owning classes.

However this is a short/medium term situation.

Longer term if property prices continue to move out of reach of the younger non property owning classes, demographics dictate that this bloc will become larger and larger, and thus all parties will pursue policies that will appeal to this bloc.

For FF/FG, at some stage the political maths will indicate it is better to take radical action to solve the problems of this key voting cohort, at the expense of their traditionally loyal voters, rather than allow SF and the left to capitalise.

Of course there is a danger they may leave it too late, and we have an SF and PBP and all that would entail.

Be careful what you wish for and all that!

I am not wishing it far from it. But I see more home owners than renters and homeless combined and that status quo will not be changing for the foreseeable future. So what would the property market be like if all supports were taken away say tomorrow Gov turned and said all meddling in the market is gone. Would it be fair then to lift the likes of the 20/80 rule for borrowing or the 3.5 times your salary? I am sure your aware that those financial rules have also paid a huge part in keeping prices lower than what they could be

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

Will be interesting to see myhome adds numbers in the coming weeks.
Second half of August and all September is typically of 6-7 weeks of growth in number of adds.

I think the main reason for this is lack of availability of credit for people wishing to move to a bigger more expensive property
It’s only landlords exiting the rental market , those who are downsizing , and deceased peoples properties which are hitting the market in any significant numbers

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not wishing it far from it. But I see more home owners than renters and homeless combined and that status quo will not be changing for the foreseeable future. So what would the property market be like if all supports were taken away say tomorrow Gov turned and said all meddling in the market is gone. Would it be fair then to lift the likes of the 20/80 rule for borrowing or the 3.5 times your salary? I am sure your aware that those financial rules have also paid a huge part in keeping prices lower than what they could be

Yes, I agree 20/80 and 3.5x rules have slowed price appreciation. I think they should be scrapped.

I'm in favour of removing all government meddling, direct and indirect, in the property market (save for social housing and rent support for those who truly need it).

If this happened I think prices would fall, then stabilise, then fluctuate mildly up and down with business cycles, rather than yo yo madly!

PropQueries

Does anyone have any idea about whats going on with all those ex-AirBnB properties and houses in South Dublin that used to be rented to students. Are the owners going to leave them vacant for the next 12 months or will they re-enter the market as family homes.

For example, if a house near UCD was previously rented to students, wouldn’t that house now need to be rented out or sold off as a family home?

Just to add to my last point. If, for example, there’s an outbreak in UCD a few days before the mid-term or Christmas break, those students would then be stuck in Dublin for the holidays, so I don’t see how the universities can come back in any meaningful way, so those ex-student rentals may most likely be re-entering the market in the next month or so as family homes.

Eric Cartman

PropQueries wrote: »

Does anyone have any idea about whats going on with all those ex-AirBnB properties and houses in South Dublin that used to be rented to students. Are the owners going to leave them vacant for the next 12 months or will they re-enter the market as family homes.

For example, if a house near UCD was previously rented to students, wouldn’t that house now need to be rented out or sold off as a family home?

Just to add to my last point. If, for example, there’s an outbreak in UCD a few days before the mid-term or Christmas break, those students would then be stuck in Dublin for the holidays, so I don’t see how the universities can come back in any meaningful way, so those ex-student rentals may most likely be re-entering the market in the next month or so as family homes.

most Airbnb stock was high end, too high end for students. It'll probably be sold. If there were a few houses that were students 9 months / Airbnb 3 months id imagine that would continue as 90 days rental is ok.

ngunners

OwlsZat wrote: »

Stands to reason. How in the honour of God could our price per sq meter justify being more expensive than Paris, Barcelona Brussels, talk about a bubble...

I'm noticing that the property supply has almost dried up entirely. I'm liking the slow down of the release of property. People are continuing to die so the property must be stockpiling, who could be slowing the release of "fair deal" property for example?

Just a small correction: Paris is more expensive per sq mt than Dublin.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

David McWilliams Irish Times article on Saturday " It is time for a major property reset", is now free to read on his blog.

Link here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/it-is-time-for-a-major-property-reset/

It interesting you pick an article and come on about a major property blow hen the article specifically mentions commercial property. The hit may or may not come and it could be a continuous drop rather than a crash.

It has been one of the issues over the last twenty years as commercial rents on smaller properties often left those people renting for a business working for a small amount age.

OwlsZat wrote: »

Stands to reason. How in the honour of God could our price per sq meter justify being more expensive than Paris, Barcelona Brussels, talk about a bubble...

I'm noticing that the property supply has almost dried up entirely. I'm liking the slow down of the release of property. People are continuing to die so the property must be stockpiling, who could be slowing the release of "fair deal" property for example?

There is more people looking for houses than people actually dying. First thing about fair deal the money on the scheme is not owed until the nursing home resident passes away. Then it goes to probate.
How long could someone be in a nursing home. Nobody opts for fair deal happens n a case where they suspect nursing home care will be short as in terminal care.

Is the average length 5ish years. As well for a married couple both have to be deceased before the fair deal cost becomes an issue.

In a recession if house prices collapsed completely in the case of fair deal there is much.more of a likely good the house will be held onto. There are other reason why the house will not be thrown up for sale. A child of the deceased may be.living in it and they only have to clear the fair deal debt to hold onto the house. The house may have been transferred to them pre fair deal with the deceased only having a long term right of residence in it.

Finally and again in a price crash senario it often the case that a child of the inheritor or one of the inheritor will take over the house.

Similar situation happen to us in 2010. An aunt passed away leaving the house ( fair deal did not come into play) between six of us. Prices had collapsed by probate. Only one investor bidding. House was in need of refurbishment for an owner occupier but was ideal for an investor as electrical and heating were functional. The investor had stalled at 125k. A sister had a son working and living in the general area. He approached us to.purchase it. As in our opinion it had reached near enough it value ( another 5k would have only been 800 per person and that was unlikely) we gave permission for the sale to go ahead on that basis. That house is worth 250k at present.

If fair deal was involved it might even have got hooky

Reversal

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-fall-0-7-as-virus-applies-hand-brake-to-market-1.4333085?mode=amp

"Dublin house prices fall 0.7% as virus applies hand brake to market" is the headline.

"The figures show prices nationally rose by just 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to June with consumers, banks and developers effectively on pause as a result of virus-containment measures.

The slowdown in activity, however, triggered a 0.7 per cent drop in prices year on year in Dublin."

Bearing in mind these figures are based on the level of activity being 33% lower than what it was last year so they have not incorporated any fallout whatsoever as a result of covid. This is reflected in this quote;

"Experts say the latest figures primarily reflect activity before the coronavirus-related shutdown and that it maybe several months before the full impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is reflected in headline prices."

This stands to reason; people are WFH, Schools aren't even back, pandemic support payments are still being paid etc so of course it will take months to see the fallout. Activity will be limited this side of Christmas so it will be Q1 2021 when transactions start picking up again which means Q2 or even Q3 reports where we can actually see the fallout from covid.

So Dublin down 4% since October 2018 now, down 0.3% in a month. So what gives with the unverified PPR data that keeps getting posted here by a certain cohort that somehow always shows things are on the up. Or the stories of everything going over asking?

Reversal

CSO data complete to June 2020 for Dublin.


I think we can agree the Google blocks data produced and posted here by our friendly neighborhood EA is flawed in some way and should no longer be posted as fact here.

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

CSO data complete to June 2020 for Dublin.


I think we can agree the Google blocks data produced and posted here by our friendly neighborhood EA is flawed in some way and should no longer be posted as fact here.

CSO is showing a .1% increase in prices in June at least it cuts out the bullsh1t that people are saying that prices have dropped just because they see some Asking price drops I also think this was consistent with the data put up here and that July the increase will be up again by .3% but I will wait till CSO publishes its data set just to appease some on here

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, I agree 20/80 and 3.5x rules have slowed price appreciation. I think they should be scrapped.

if we didnt have those rules dublin prices wouldnt have stopped increasing 2/3 years ago and would probably be 15% higher, thats hardly a good outcome?

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

if we didnt have those rules dublin prices wouldnt have stopped increasing 2/3 years ago and would probably be 15% higher, thats hardly a good outcome?

Not sure 15% but they would of been higher

Cyrus

fliball123 wrote: »

Not sure 15% but they would of been higher

i bought a new build in a very small estate end 17, the first phase was 8 houses and the second phase was 11, second phase was 6% on average higher than the first ( 5-6 months between sales closing in either phase), i think that was the point that prices started to stagnate at that end of the market and they havent grown since. I have no doubt that without borrowing restrictions they would have continued to rise.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

i bought a new build in a very small estate end 17, the first phase was 8 houses and the second phase was 11, second phase was 6% on average higher than the first ( 5-6 months between sales closing in either phase), i think that was the point that prices started to stagnate at that end of the market and they havent grown since. I have no doubt that without borrowing restrictions they would have continued to rise.

I am in agreement with you just hard to identify what the exact price rise would of been

Bass Reeves

fliball123 wrote: »

Not sure 15% but they would of been higher

It would depend whether exemptions were allowed on top of multiplier. Lots of people depend on exemptions to get them.over the line. No exemption and 4X earnings might be little different to what there at present

The_Conductor

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It would depend whether exemptions were allowed on top of multiplier. Lots of people depend on exemptions to get them.over the line. No exemption and 4X earnings might be little different to what there at present

And keep in mind there has largely been an absence of wage rises in both the public and private sectors (with some exceptions- some of which were high profile).