Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Are you unable to contemplate a set of circumstances that aren’t your own ?

My view is the alternative view on this thread. You want an echo chamber and deride and ridicule others with any view different to yours.

fliball123

smurgen wrote: »

But you might not know how much you'll be earning?

And this country has a record of banks not being able to repossess the family home easily it takes years, decades and in some cases they just cant, see how you are if your telling your landlord your not paying the rent

smurgen

fliball123 wrote: »

How sure are you of what you just said as it has been said over and over about drops and they are yet to happen?

Rents in Dublin have dropped around 20% since Feb and available rentals shot through the roof. This will impact sales soon. Have a look at these graphs yourself.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

fliball123

smurgen wrote: »

Rents in Dublin have dropped around 20% since Feb and available rentals shot through the roof. This will impact sales soon. Have a look at these graphs yourself.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

sorry I thought you were talking about drops when it comes to buying

TheSheriff

smurgen wrote: »

If you've been waiting years then buying now is the worst time. That'll mean you'll have absorbed all of the increases and gained from very little of the decreases.

We are looking at some specific parks/areas.

In one park we really would like to live in there were two properties sold between the years of 2011-2014 (as per the PPR). Two properties. Since then there have been a steady number per year (at least 2 per year).

I am not foolish or idealistic enough to think that should a significant dip come along that (A) I will have as easy access to credit as I do now and (B) A property will be available that I actually want.

Tbh, I can afford the mortgage we are approved for. I would rather just to get on with my life and forget about the property market.

Should the economic turmoil which is envisaged come to pass I would also much rather be in my own house, rather than potentially locked out of the market for years to come. I have friends in their 40'ies who never got on the property ladder due to the last recession. I do not want the same for myself when I am in that age bracket.

Hopefully soon.

Edit; Also just to be clear, I would welcome a fall in prices! I am just not sure anymore when that fall will arrive....

Foggy Jew

TheSheriff wrote: »

We have been seriously trying to buy for a while now; some fallen through sales but mostly outbid.

I feel like our life is on hold tbh; saving, no very large expenditure, no wedding, constant feeling that the place I live is not home, most weekends spent viewing properties, every night looking at daft/myhome, tracking sale agreed prices, want to change job but nervous in case the bank want me to wait out another probation period and the house comes up etc etc. Its all very exhausting.

Many friends in the same position.

That’s a hard place to be, Sheriff. If you’ll allow me a wee clichè, if it’s for ye, it won’t pass ye. All the best.

TheSheriff

smurgen wrote: »

If you've been waiting years then buying now is the worst time. That'll mean you'll have absorbed all of the increases and gained from very little of the decreases.

Also, I should add, people have been telling us this for well over a year..... "this is the worst time"......

TheSheriff

Foggy Jew wrote: »

That’s a hard place to be, Sheriff. If you’ll allow me a wee clichè, if it’s for ye, it won’t pass ye. All the best.

Thanks

We were recently gazumped on a property we were sale agreed on. It was hard to take as we'd spent money on the process.

Despite all the economic uncertainty there is serious demand (and money) still in Dublin (can't speak for anywhere else), at least in the 400k + bracket.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

My view is the alternative view on this thread. You want an echo chamber and deride and ridicule others with any view different to yours.

You have completely missed the point i was making.

And you seem to be confused as to what my view is, my view is based on the data available not a forward looking projection that is coloured by my own personal interests like your own.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

You have completely missed the point i was making.

And you seem to be confused as to what my view is, my view is based on the data available not a forward looking projection that is coloured by my own personal interests like your own.

What data are you looking at available that will tell you what house prices will be in six months?please share with us.

smurgen

fliball123 wrote: »

sorry I thought you were talking about drops when it comes to buying

I am. There is a lag in one market. And I believe the correction in house prices will come. While we are waiting the drop in rents if you care to move will not make the waiting time cheaper.

Browney7

Cyrus wrote: »

You have completely missed the point i was making.

And you seem to be confused as to what my view is, my view is based on the data available not a forward looking projection that is coloured by my own personal interests like your own.

All well and good using the data points you have but they relate to a different time to be fair - sales agreed in Q1 and closed in Q2 for example. If you jumped off a 100 storey sky scraper, after falling 98 floors the data would show you've survived so far so will continue to do so but the ground is fast approaching.

These times are exceptional so nobody can predict what will happen. All people can have are theories.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

What data are you looking at available that will tell you what house prices will be in six months?please share with us.

I’m not looking at any nor am I making any predictions n what they will be, I’ll leave that to you.

I don’t reallly care because I won’t be buying or selling.

I’m just looking at the ppr data right now which is making a mockery, so far, of the gloom you and others have been peddling along with a few using rubbish data to support their hypothesis.

Cyrus

Browney7 wrote: »

All well and good using the data points you have but they relate to a different time to be fair - sales agreed in Q1 and closed in Q2 for example. If you jumped off a 100 storey sky scraper, after falling 98 floors the data would show you've survived so far so will continue to do so but the ground is fast approaching.

These times are exceptional so nobody can predict what will happen. All people can have are theories.

It’s the best information we have and it’s up to the end of June. People can predict what they want but there is no better data.

Also if you jump off a 100 floor skyscraper you are guaranteed to die so it’s a rubbish analogy

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

I’m not looking at any nor am I making any predictions n what they will be, I’ll leave that to you.

I don’t reallly care because I won’t be buying or selling.

I’m just looking at the ppr data right now which is making a mockery, so far, of the gloom you and others have been peddling along with a few using rubbish data to support their hypothesis.

You're taking a static view in an extremely dynamic economy in an extremely turbulent period. Do you know something the bank's don't know? Kbc,AIB,BOI all forecasting price falls but their forecasting is wrong? it's all going to stay the same?

fliball123

smurgen wrote: »

I am. There is a lag in one market. And I believe the correction in house prices will come. While we are waiting the drop in rents if you care to move will not make the waiting time cheaper.

Is there proof of a correlation between the residential rental market and the buying and selling market? Not saying there isn't but I have not seen any of that data?

smurgen

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are looking at some specific parks/areas.

In one park we really would like to live in there were two properties sold between the years of 2011-2014 (as per the PPR). Two properties. Since then there have been a steady number per year (at least 2 per year).

I am not foolish or idealistic enough to think that should a significant dip come along that (A) I will have as easy access to credit as I do now and (B) A property will be available that I actually want.

Tbh, I can afford the mortgage we are approved for. I would rather just to get on with my life and forget about the property market.

Should the economic turmoil which is envisaged come to pass I would also much rather be in my own house, rather than potentially locked out of the market for years to come. I have friends in their 40'ies who never got on the property ladder due to the last recession. I do not want the same for myself when I am in that age bracket.

Hopefully soon.

Edit; Also just to be clear, I would welcome a fall in prices! I am just not sure anymore when that fall will arrive....

If your choices are that narrow and alternatives are not appealing I agree you're probably better off buying whenever.

Graham

smurgen wrote: »

Do you know something the bank's don't know? Kbc,AIB,BOI all forecasting price falls but their forecasting is wrong? it's all going to stay the same?

There are those that would suggest banks don't exactly have a fantastic track record at predicting the property market?

Best guesses based on what we know at the moment is probably the fairest assessment across the forecasting board.

Browney7

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s the best information we have and it’s up to the end of June. People can predict what they want but there is no better data.

Also if you jump off a 100 floor skyscraper you are guaranteed to die so it’s a rubbish analogy

Sales completed up to the end of June - as we hear all the time on this forum, the sale process can take a significant amount of time. It seems a reasonable assumption that sales completed in June were at the latest negotiated at the end of April (I moved out of an apartment before that went sale agreed in May of a year and didn't appear on the register until November so who knows...). Based on volumes of sales it's my estimation that the bulk of sales closed were people who were well down the sale process (surveys, legals etc) and decided to plough on. No proof in support or to the contrary and will never have proof of this.

Not the perfect analogy by any stretch but purely to illustrate a point that anyone can interpret and spin data any way they like. The world has changed.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Is there proof of a correlation between the residential rental market and the buying and selling market? Not saying there isn't but I have not seen any of that data?

Maybe you missed it in Economics 101 when you were trying to get your head around the dynamics of supply and demand.

smurgen

fliball123 wrote: »

Is there proof of a correlation between the residential rental market and the buying and selling market? Not saying there isn't but I have not seen any of that data?

Yes. This study by Ronan Lyons,on the Irish housing market between 2008 and have a look at table 1, page 14 to look at the R squared correlation in the price ratio between 2000 and 2016.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.ronanlyons.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Housing-Price-Ratio-and-Credit-Conditions-in-Ireland-JHE-2018-02.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjNi_ar2qXrAhXyQxUIHfVMBxcQFjAAegQIBxAC&usg=AOvVaw3iiOmDuZumhePGCyVJ5mCm

GreeBo

TheSheriff wrote: »

Also, I should add, people have been telling us this for well over a year..... "this is the worst time"......

If you want to own your own home then the only real "worst time to buy" is tomorrow imo.

If you find the house you want and can afford it buy it.
A home isn't an investment it's a place to live.
A car isn't an investment either, is a vehicle.

If people used the same logic no one would ever buy a car.

smurgen

Graham wrote: »

There are those that would suggest banks don't exactly have a fantastic track record at predicting the property market?

Best guesses based on what we know at the moment is probably the fairest assessment across the forecasting board.

Okay. Can you point me to the source forecasting price rises?

Graham

smurgen wrote: »

Okay. Can you point me to the source forecasting price rises?

I don't recall suggesting there were going to be price rises, no idea how you came to that conclusion.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Maybe you missed it in Economics 101 when you were trying to get your head around the dynamics of supply and demand.

no its nothing to do with that the rental market is seperate to the buying and selling of property.

As I stated on here the biggest difference is if someone is paying a mortgage and losses their job there is a high likelihood that they will get to stay in their family home without losing it, the same cannot be said for those renting. So its to do with how the 2 are treated when affordability is in question

smurgen

Graham wrote: »

I don't recall suggesting there were going to be price rises, no idea how you came to that conclusion.

You said the banks were bad at forecasting. All the banks are predicting falls. This indicates to me you think static prices or rises are more likely. What are you seeing to support this view?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

no its nothing to do with that the rental market is seperate to the buying and selling of property.

As I stated on here the biggest difference is if someone is paying a mortgage and losses their job there is a high likelihood that they will get to stay in their family home without losing it, the same cannot be said for those renting. So its to do with how the 2 are treated when affordability is in question

the rental market and the sales market are intrinsically linked. Apologies, but the idea that they are priced completely independently of each other is laughably ignorant.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

no its nothing to do with that the rental market is seperate to the buying and selling of property.

As I stated on here the biggest difference is someone is paying a mortgage and losses their job there is a high likelihood that they will get to stay in their family home, the same cannot be said for those renting. S its to do with how the 2 are treated when affordability is in question as for supply and demand both CSO and PPR data has proven me right up to this point

To be fair, rental yields have an awful lot to do with the price of property. If an investor needs a 6% gross rental yield on a 300k property, they need 18 grand of rent. If the rent drops to 16 grand it stands to reason the property drops as well or else the investor drops their return requirements.

Granted, investors make up a subset of the market and based on what people say on this forum you'd be mad to invest now at any price due to tenant rights. I really can't see many investors ploughing into the market now with all the covid uncertainty either....but there's no data for this so it can't possibly be true

smurgen

fliball123 wrote: »

no its nothing to do with that the rental market is seperate to the buying and selling of property.

As I stated on here the biggest difference is if someone is paying a mortgage and losses their job there is a high likelihood that they will get to stay in their family home without losing it, the same cannot be said for those renting. So its to do with how the 2 are treated when affordability is in question

Losing your home and getting kicked out of rental property has nothing to do with correlation of the prices between the rental market and house prices. The value of the house and the rent yield are linked. The two have deviated for now but I out that down to the fact it takes longer to sell and buy houses on average than it does to let or rent a house. This lag will catch up soon.

Graham

smurgen wrote: »

You said the banks were bad at forecasting. All the banks are predicting falls. This indicates to me you think static prices or rises are more likely.

I pointed out their track record might be considered less than stellar.

Conclusions entirely your own.