Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

The lending rules are limiting prices to the upside, other factors are limiting them to the downside. Remove all the meddling and let the market set the price.

tigger123 wrote:

Removing the 3.5 multiplier would be complete madness. People would be forced to get up to their neck in unsustainable date due to the lack of housing supply.

Govt meddling tried to relax get rid of the limits. Does meddling include these limits plus capital requirements for banks which put brakes on bank lending for obvious reasons

Would removing meddling release 50k odd houses to the market that are in substantial arrears

hometruths

Villa05 wrote: »

Govt meddling tried to relax get rid of the limits. Does meddling include these limits plus capital requirements for banks which put brakes on bank lending for obvious reasons

Would removing meddling release 50k odd houses to the market that are in substantial arrears

Yes that's part of the meddling I'm referring to that is limiting the downside.

Remove it all.

I'd be in favour of non recourse mortgages, allowing the banks to lend whatever they wish, but only with the ability to repossess swiftly if contract is broken.

And tell them there is no bail outs. Let a bank fail if it overextends itself.

Let the bank take the risk, they will have learnt their lessons from the last time.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i think it was that 20 was 3 bed but larger (the 4th bed being the attic room)

32 was 4 bed but smaller (didnt have or didnt include the space in the attic)

one assumes the box room in 20 became a bathroom.

they are the same house so the extra size is in the attic, i'm not sure if you are technically supposed to list it, or maybe you can but just not call it a bedroom.

If there is less than a certain height - 8ft i think it is - technically you cannot call it a bedroom. of course you can call it an attic room and show it with a bed in it.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Yes that's part of the meddling I'm referring to that is limiting the downside.

Remove it all.

I'd be in favour of non recourse mortgages, allowing the banks to lend whatever they wish, but only with the ability to repossess swiftly if contract is broken.

And tell them there is no bail outs. Let a bank fail if it overextends itself.

Let the bank take the risk, they will have learnt their lessons from the last time.

id be with you on that but for some reason govts here (and i dont see any alternatives advocating a change) are very afraid of being seen facilitation forced evictions.

non recourse lending would shake things up alright.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

id be with you on that but for some reason govts here (and i dont see any alternatives advocating a change) are very afraid of being seen facilitation forced evictions.

non recourse lending would shake things up alright.

I agree with Ursabear that it will change in time when a large enough number of people realise how directly it is affecting them personally. At that stage sympathy will go out the window.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i think it was that 20 was 3 bed but larger (the 4th bed being the attic room)

32 was 4 bed but smaller (didnt have or didnt include the space in the attic)

one assumes the box room in 20 became a bathroom.

they are the same house so the extra size is in the attic, im not sure if you are technically supposed to list it, or maybe you can but just not call it a bedroom.

Here's an example of the exact same house for asking prices 2020 vs selling prices in 2014.

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Asking €475,000: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-killeen-avenue-malahide-dublin/4448824

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Sold €440,000 in May 2014.

The CSO states that Dublin prices increased by 95% between 2013 and 2019.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Here's an example of the exact same house for asking prices 2020 vs selling prices in 2014.

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Asking €475,000: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-killeen-avenue-malahide-dublin/4448824

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Sold €440,000 in May 2014.

The CSO states that Dublin prices increased by 95% between 2013 and 2019.

whats the point exactly?

the 95% is weighted to the earlier years for sure, it wasnt a linear increase.

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Here's an example of the exact same house for asking prices 2020 vs selling prices in 2014.

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Asking €475,000: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-killeen-avenue-malahide-dublin/4448824

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Sold €440,000 in May 2014.

The CSO states that Dublin prices increased by 95% between 2013 and 2019.

The point being that some sellers must be forecasting price falls in the order of c. 50% over the next twelve months and already appear to be factoring those forecasts into their asking prices.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

The point being that some sellers must be forecasting price falls in the order of c. 50% over the next twelve months and already appear to be factoring those forecasts into their asking prices.

how do you calculate that?

per the latest CSO report:

Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low

That house was sold 2 and a bit years later.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

The point being that some sellers must be forecasting price falls in the order of c. 50% over the next twelve months and already appear to be factoring those forecasts into their asking prices.

So you think this seller has put their price up at 50% below its value? Really struggling to understand your logic here.

Springy Turf

Pelezico wrote: »

Why would anyone buy now? Pure madness....they will repent at their leisure.

It might be pure madness for your son to buy now (in your opinion), but there are lots of reasons, put forward by me and others now about why now might be the right time to buy, depending on circumstances.

For example, Would a 10% drop on 12-15 months be worth:
- Having kids miss out on the school you want them to attend
- 12-15 months of rent. A family home in Dublin to rent would easily come to 24k in a year
- Risking credit availability collapsing to the point where only cash buyers have a look in
- Passing over a house in an area where you know opportunities only come up a couple of times a year
- A year working in some ****ty rental situation where you are stuck all day working from home
- Living with the possibility of your Landlord getting spooked by the market and wanting to sell up.

The truth is, if there is a 10% drop, most people who bought now won't give it a second thought - they will have moved on with their lives while others sit around trying to time a completely unpredictable housing market.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

how do you calculate that?

per the latest CSO report:

Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low

That house was sold 2 and a bit years later.

You're right on the 2012 v 2013 low point.

From looking at the property price index, May 2014 is at 87 and September 2019 is at 125. The seller of this property has an asking price that is only 8% above the selling price in May 2014.

I'm obviously no maths genius, but if the CSO index is right, shouldn't the seller be seeking c. €630k instead of €475k?

Springy Turf

PropQueries wrote: »

You're right on the 2012 v 2013 low point.

From looking at the property price index, May 2014 is at 87 and September 2019 is at 125. The seller of this property has an asking price that is only 8% above the selling price in May 2014.

I'm obviously no maths genius, but if the CSO index is right, shouldn't the seller be seeking c. €630k instead of €475k?

From my experience of the market in South Dublin, all a low asking price does it draw in a load of viewers who can't afford the place.

Any house that I think looks undervalued on asking hits the limits (and beyond) of what I would think its worth when the final bids are in.

PropQueries

Springy Turf wrote: »

From my experience of the market in South Dublin, all a low asking price does it draw in a load of viewers who can't afford the place.

Any house that I think looks undervalued on asking hits the limits (and beyond) of what I would think its worth when the final bids are in.

Maybe you're right.

It's just I don't see how bidding wars etc. can increase prices over the next few years when the builders own lobby group has stated we're already building more than enough homes each year to meet local demand and the banks can't have any money to lend.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe you're right.

It's just I don't see how bidding wars etc. can increase prices over the next few years when the builders own lobby group has stated we're already building more than enough homes each year to meet local demand and the banks can't have any money to lend.

where did you get this?

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

where did you get this?

From the Irish Times today "Claim that 47,000 new homes needed a year isn’t credible": https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/claim-that-47-000-new-homes-needed-a-year-isn-t-credible-1.4333525

It seems the 47,000 figure per year comes from:

1. Natural increase in population: 18,500
2. Reduction in household size: 12,500
3. Inward Migration: 8,000
4. Obsolescence: 8,000

Since we were building over 20,000 units pre-covid and the builders own lobby group state that the demand for new units from the natural increase in the population is 18,500, we're more than covering local demand.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

From the Irish Times today "Claim that 47,000 new homes needed a year isn’t credible": https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/claim-that-47-000-new-homes-needed-a-year-isn-t-credible-1.4333525

It seems the 47,000 figure per year comes from:

1. Natural increase in population: 18,500
2. Reduction in household size: 12,500
3. Inward Migration: 8,000
4. Obsolescence: 8,000

Since we were building over 20,000 units pre-covid and the builders own lobby group state that the demand for new units from the natural increase in the population is 18,500, we're more than covering local demand.

What about 2, 3 and 4?

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

What about 2, 3 and 4?

The rest appear to be based on forecasts that the author states are probably unrealistic e.g. reduction in household size (household size increased in last Census) and obsolescence, which he also seems to debunk. Inward migration may actually reverse over the coming years due to the changes in the international tax regime.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

The rest appear to be based on forecasts that the author states are probably unrealistic e.g. reduction in household size (household size increased in last Census) and obsolescence, which he also seems to debunk. Inward migration may actually reverse over the coming years due to the changes in the international tax regime.

Wow that is a serious assumption you are making but to be expected.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

From the Irish Times today "Claim that 47,000 new homes needed a year isn’t credible": https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/claim-that-47-000-new-homes-needed-a-year-isn-t-credible-1.4333525

It seems the 47,000 figure per year comes from:

1. Natural increase in population: 18,500
2. Reduction in household size: 12,500
3. Inward Migration: 8,000
4. Obsolescence: 8,000

Since we were building over 20,000 units pre-covid and the builders own lobby group state that the demand for new units from the natural increase in the population is 18,500, we're more than covering local demand.

You got 18,500 numbers purely on your own assumptions that 2,3,4 has no impact, nobody states this.
It say's that 47,000 seems to high number. (by other analysis its estimated 35,000)
But where did you see this:
"builders own lobby group has stated we're already building more than enough homes each year"
It appears it's a made up story.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

You got 18,500 numbers purely on your own assumptions that 2,3,4 has no impact, nobody states this.
It say's that 47,000 seems to high number. (by other analysis its estimated 35,000)
But where did you see this:
"builders own lobby group has stated we're already building more than enough homes each year"
It appears it's a made up story.

It's not a made up story. The Irish Times author is real and the report it's based on is real and actually from the lobby group that represents most property interests in Ireland.

The report the article is based on is here: https://irp-cdn.multiscreensite.com/4065c16c/files/uploaded/Identify%20Consulting%20Full%20Report%20FINAL.pdf

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

You got 18,500 numbers purely on your own assumptions that 2,3,4 has no impact, nobody states this.
It say's that 47,000 seems to high number. (by other analysis its estimated 35,000)
But where did you see this:
"builders own lobby group has stated we're already building more than enough homes each year"
It appears it's a made up story.

You're 100% correct on the assumption I made.

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

It might be pure madness for your son to buy now (in your opinion), but there are lots of reasons, put forward by me and others now about why now might be the right time to buy, depending on circumstances.

For example, Would a 10% drop on 12-15 months be worth:
- Having kids miss out on the school you want them to attend
- 12-15 months of rent. A family home in Dublin to rent would easily come to 24k in a year
- Risking credit availability collapsing to the point where only cash buyers have a look in
- Passing over a house in an area where you know opportunities only come up a couple of times a year
- A year working in some ****ty rental situation where you are stuck all day working from home
- Living with the possibility of your Landlord getting spooked by the market and wanting to sell up.

The truth is, if there is a 10% drop, most people who bought now won't give it a second thought - they will have moved on with their lives while others sit around trying to time a completely unpredictable housing market.

They will when they try to remortgage. That is when a while new bunch of threads will start on boards.ie bemoaning risk based mortgages.

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

From my experience of the market in South Dublin, all a low asking price does it draw in a load of viewers who can't afford the place.

Any house that I think looks undervalued on asking hits the limits (and beyond) of what I would think its worth when the final bids are in.

The market in Dublin is falling. The CSO states bear that out.

Maybe people buying now represent the last bunch able to get mortgages before the drawbridge goes up.

In that case the falls will be greater than ten percent.

Mic 1972

the latest 1bed Apts being added to Daft have higher asking prices then ever,

this apt just went sales agreed with asking of 220K https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/124-the-richmond-north-brunswick-street-smithfield/4448430
similar aprt, very same size and layout, is on sale for 250K https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/124-the-richmond-north-brunswick-street-smithfield/4448430

Where do people get this notion that prices are going to drop 10%? Prices are still increasing

Mic 1972

Pelezico wrote: »

The market in Dublin is falling. The CSO states bear that out.

Maybe people buying now represent the last bunch able to get mortgages before the drawbridge goes up.

In that case the falls will be greater than ten percent.

I wish you were right but where is the evidence?
Asking prices are through the roof and have gone up already since last month.

I called a few AEs, they aren't interested in offers below asking price

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I wish you were right but where is the evidence?
Asking prices are through the roof and have gone up already since last month.

I called a few AEs, they aren't interested in offers below asking price

Last February (Pre-Covid), developers in Dublin were openly admitting there was no demand for their units.

Irish Times Article Here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

Taylor365

PropQueries wrote: »

Last February (Pre-Covid), developers in Dublin were openly admitting there was no demand for their units.

Irish Times Article Here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

No demand for a 1.1 million 2 bed apartment?


Are you having a laugh!

PropQueries

Taylor365 wrote: »

No demand for a 1.1 million 2 bed apartment?


Are you having a laugh!

Actually at every price level.

Here is the report from Goodbody's Stockbrokers last year where they "crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin"

Irish Times Article Here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

nerrad01

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the latest 1bed Apts being added to Daft have higher asking prices then ever,

this apt just went sales agreed with asking of 220K https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/124-the-richmond-north-brunswick-street-smithfield/4448430
similar aprt, very same size and layout, is on sale for 250K https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/124-the-richmond-north-brunswick-street-smithfield/4448430

Where do people get this notion that prices are going to drop 10%? Prices are still increasing

well its not unrealistic that they could drop by 10%, the entire economy is being artificially propped up and we are realistically facing a major recession, the questions is will this effect the massive under supply of properties that we have. No one knows, i personally think a drop of between 10% is a fairly realistic outcome