Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

smurgen

awec wrote: »

Nope, because everyone's circumstances are different.

The original neighbour could be living in their dream house, comfortably paying the mortgage off. Why would I feel sorry for them?

Personally, I would never suggest anyone buy a house if they are not comfortable on the mortgage (no stretching to pay it or forking out 40/50% of your income) and they do not want to live there for a long time, because this is when it genuinely becomes a real issue.

But all other things being equal you agree there's an optimal decision right?

Mic 1972

schmittel wrote: »

We also thanks to COVID have a clear trend towards accelerated implementation of WFH, giving many of the potential buyers of these houses now the option of looking far beyond the suburbs.

That WFH thing is urban legend. House prices in Dublin aren't showing the impact of WFH

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

So your advice would be to not buy now if you plan on remortgaging in the near future? I'd agree with that - but that's a very peculiar position to be in. The interest rates don't have a much lower than 2.2/2.3% to go - particularly if banks are saddled with a load of bad debt.

You say its madness to buy, but you won't directly address any of the very valid reasons why it might be important for someone to buy now.

My advice to my dearest is ..wait. if you want to buy soon, more than likely you will overpay.

Here is one other factor. The spouse who overpays will be blamed for the bad decision.

Negative equity really is that corrosive.

awec

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I agree with the negative outlook on our economy, but all the signals have been out for long enough now. And still no signs of decline in house prices. Whatever it is that is driving the prices up it doesn't seem affected by any of these factors.
Bear in mind that in the last few months alone rents have dropped quite significantly and also there aren't many jobs out there left compared to last year. Why would this not impact the property market?

Nah not really, it's still way too early. You need to wait at least another year to see what happens, property really does move very slow.

So far, prices haven't collapsed and aren't spiraling downward, but there is a negative trend creeping in to some sectors, while others are just holding steady.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

In 2008 yes. There won't be ghost estates in Dublin, nobody is suggesting that.

Well you are suggesting demand will be outside the suburbs and builders haven’t provided for it ,

You can understand why

awec

smurgen wrote: »

But all other things being equal you agree there's an optimal decision right?

An optimal decision to buy at the bottom or close to it? Yes, I agree 100%. But the overwhelming majority do not get to make this decision.

If everyone waits for the bottom, there will be no bottom. By definition it cannot happen. Such a scenario is an oxymoron.

Assetbacked

The soft landing talk is 12% price drops in the next 18 months.

https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-housing-ireland-economy-coronavirus-covid-buy-mortgage-5103632-May2020/

"[The ESRI] suggests that the drop in prices is “due to the decline in household disposable income and the sharp fall-off in mortgage market activity which will inevitably result from the administrative closedown implemented by the Irish authorities”."

Mic 1972

awec wrote: »

Nah not really, it's still way too early. You need to wait at least another year to see what happens, property really does move very slow.

So far, prices haven't collapsed and aren't spiraling downward, but there is a negative trend creeping in to some sectors, while others are just holding steady.

There is no negative trend. 2019 = 2020. No difference

A wise investor wouldn't touch a market at its peak while the economy is on the verge of collapse and while return of investment is affected by drop in rents. But somehow people are still bidding over asking prices.


Different story for people who need a house to live in, but they are not the only players in the property market. Investors play a big role too.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Well you are suggesting demand will be outside the suburbs and builders haven’t provided for it ,

You can understand why

A lot has changed in 12 years but I still think Leitrim will display the lowest demand.

And if there is insatiable demand in the suburbs why are builders left with unsold stock?

Springy Turf

Pelezico wrote: »

My advice to my dearest is ..wait. if you want to buy soon, more than likely you will overpay.

Here is one other factor. The spouse who overpays will be blamed for the bad decision.

Negative equity really is that corrosive.

Many will have 20% equity in their homes from the get go - so that means a 20% plus drop is needed to go into negative equity. Anyway, for the most part, even negative equity doesn't matter unless you need to move.

Mic 1972

schmittel wrote: »

A lot has changed in 12 years but I still think Leitrim will display the lowest demand.

And if there is insatiable demand in the suburbs why are builders left with unsold stock?

are there unsold stocks?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

A lot has changed in 12 years but I still think Leitrim will display the lowest demand.

And if there is insatiable demand in the suburbs why are builders left with unsold stock?

Because we hit affordability limits in Dublin a few years ago at most levels from 500k to 1m. Stuff was/is still selling but more slowly as developers have been slow to reduce prices on new builds which are selling at decent premium to old stock.

I know of estates with houses ranging from 900k to 1.1m they all sold but it took 18 months.

hometruths

Mic 1972 wrote: »

are there unsold stocks?

Yes, see IT article linked earlier by PropQueries

Perhaps the most notable part of the latest Goodbody report on housing is its conclusion that the stock of unsold properties are firmly on the rise. There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out, but Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093.

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

Many will have 20% equity in their homes from the get go - so that means a 20% plus drop is needed to go into negative equity. Anyway, for the most part, even negative equity doesn't matter unless you need to move.

You seem desperate to buy.

If you were mine, I would caution you.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Because we hit affordability limits in Dublin a few years ago at most levels from 500k to 1m. Stuff was/is still selling but more slowly as developers have been slow to reduce prices on new builds which are selling at decent premium to old stock.

I know of estates with houses ranging from 900k to 1.1m they all sold but it took 18 months.

And do you think any of what Conor Skehan said 5 years ago rings true?

Pelezico

Pelezico wrote: »

That is a nonsense. Why bother expecting any value for money in any transaction?

What the poster is doing is rationalising a decision which went badly wrong.

That is ok too. We all rationalise every single day.

My decision didn't go badly wrong, don't know Why you would think it did?

OwlsZat

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, see IT article linked earlier by PropQueries

Thanks for this. Heard anecdotal evidence of same so nice to see it backed up!

Bass Reeves

Pelezico wrote: »

Well if he bought in 2005, he is still under water. In my world, that is bad.

Rationalising the decision...he is still living there and deriving a utility value from the house but he has paid over the years.

He may still be paying if he does not have any equity and cannot avail of good mortgage deals.

If he bought in 2005 and is on a tracker he on the best sure fire winner in history. His tracker would be in the 0.5-0.75% range. He had 2-3 bad years from 2009-2011 after that he was home free. He probably got a 110% @ 4-5 times earnings mortgage. If he borrowed 350K over 25 years his repayments at present are sub 1300/month and he pay a bit with 400K back over the 25 years and that is including the 2-3 years he was paying back at 3-4%

Mic 1972 wrote: »

There is no negative trend. 2019 = 2020. No difference

A wise investor wouldn't touch a market at its peak while the economy is on the verge of collapse and while return of investment is affected by drop in rents. But somehow people are still bidding over asking prices.


Different story for people who need a house to live in, but they are not the only players in the property market. Investors play a big role too.

Investors have not been buying houses or apartments in Dublin to any great extent since 2016. The exceptions is REITS

Mic 1972

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Investors have not been buying houses or apartments in Dublin to any great extent since 2016. The exceptions is REITS

dont wanna sound smart but what's your source for such statement?
1beds being rented in cc are evidence of how many people buys them to let

bdmc5

Pelezico wrote: »

Good value for money is when the house that went for x last year is x minus 15% this year. Boy, do you feel good knowing you got value for money and your neighbour overpaid.

Oh...and he is better at golf than you....but he overpaid.

Not everyone harbours this resentment of neighbours who paid less or more for homes or is so obsessed about buying at the lowest possible price. Some of neighbours paid 20k more than us for their homes and they are over the moon to have a place to finally call their own and move on a with life in a area they love.

I’m relieved to not have to pay more for same type of home but this vindictive pleasure you seem to relish are spending less is far from many first time buyer thoughts

smellyoldboot

Your buy to let investment isn't going to work out lads. Drop the act. When Angela grabs snivelling Micky by the balls the game is up. Down down we go.

Springy Turf

Pelezico wrote: »

My advice to my dearest is ..wait. if you want to buy soon, more than likely you will overpay.

Here is one other factor. The spouse who overpays will be blamed for the bad decision.

Negative equity really is that corrosive.

And you still haven't addressed some of the reasons why buying now is right for some people.

Here's a scenario for you:

- A Couple with a 2 almost school age children and a deposit saved of 100,000.
- They are currently renting a 2 bedroom apartment at 1900 euros p/m outside their preferred schools catchment area
- They are both working from home for the foreseeable future due to CoViD
- There are currently no suitable rental properties inside the catchment area. If one comes up, they would be committed to a new 12 month lease, and likely have to pay additional rent.
- They have found a 3 bed house at €350,000 that suits them, with a mortgage of 1100 per month, near the school they want their kids to go to.
- They know that houses near this school in their price range come on the market 2-3 times a year.
- The house will suit their needs for at least 10 years.


So I can see 3 options:

1: Stay in the current place, deal with the stress of the lack of space and garden for a 12-15 months and risk missing out on getting their kids into their preferred school.
2: Hope that a rental comes up in their school area, and then commit to a 12 month lease at higher rent then they are currently paying.
3: Buy the house that suits them with the mortgage they can afford, accepting that the market will likely drop by some unknown amount, over some unknown timeframe

Which do they go for?

I'd be interested to see what other posters think as well.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

The soft landing talk is 12% price drops in the next 18 months.

https://www.thejournal.ie/house-prices-housing-ireland-economy-coronavirus-covid-buy-mortgage-5103632-May2020/

"[The ESRI] suggests that the drop in prices is “due to the decline in household disposable income and the sharp fall-off in mortgage market activity which will inevitably result from the administrative closedown implemented by the Irish authorities”."

That’s from May though? Interesting to see if their opinion has changed now..more or less severe decreases over a shorter or longer period.

cubatahavana

Springy Turf wrote: »

And you still haven't addressed some of the reasons why buying now is right for some people.

Here's a scenario for you:

- A Couple with a 2 almost school age children and a deposit saved of 100,000.
- They are currently renting a 2 bedroom apartment at 1900 euros p/m outside their preferred schools catchment area
- They are both working from home for the foreseeable future due to CoViD
- There are currently no suitable rental properties inside the catchment area. If one comes up, they would be committed to a new 12 month lease, and likely have to pay additional rent.
- They have found a 3 bed house at €350,000 that suits them, with a mortgage of 1100 per month, near the school they want their kids to go to.
- They know that houses near this school in their price range come on the market 2-3 times a year.
- The house will suit their needs for at least 10 years.


So I can see 3 options:

1: Stay in the current place, deal with the stress of the lack of space and garden for a 12-15 months and risk missing out on getting their kids into their preferred school.
2: Hope that a rental comes up in their school area, and then commit to a 12 month lease at higher rent then they are currently paying.
3: Buy the house that suits them with the mortgage they can afford, accepting that the market will likely drop by some unknown amount, over some unknown timeframe

Which do they go for?

I'd be interested to see what other posters think as well.

Of course no.3, having said that, someone that can save 100k with a 2 year old probably can afford more than a 350k

I would still buy. Once you can afford it, go for it

Bass Reeves

cubatahavana wrote: »

Of course no.3, having said that, someone that can save 100k with a 2 year old probably can afford more than a 350k

I would still buy. Once you can afford it, go for it

350k requires 100k in joint incomes to achieve the multiplier for a mortgage. Would a bank give an exemption to a couple with two young kids even at 4 times salary it s 87k joint income. They may have income not included such as OT or bonus. For that matter maybe part of the deposit may have come from an inheritance or they could be in there thirties.

PropQueries

FYI. Article today in Irish Independent: “Blanchardstown Shopping Centre owner Blackstone is prepared to agree a consensual surrender of control of the asset if lenders including AIB don’t cut it a debt deal, sources have confirmed to the Irish Independent. Case shows how Covid losses are shifting rapidly from retailers, through landlords and onto the banks”

Irish Independent article here:https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/blackstone-and-aib-in-standoff-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-debt-39463682.html

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

FYI. Article today in Irish Independent: “Blanchardstown Shopping Centre owner Blackstone is prepared to agree a consensual surrender of control of the asset if lenders including AIB don’t cut it a debt deal, sources have confirmed to the Irish Independent. Case shows how Covid losses are shifting rapidly from retailers, through landlords and onto the banks”

Irish Independent article here:https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/blackstone-and-aib-in-standoff-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-debt-39463682.html

Nothing to worry about here, this time it's a health crisis, not a financial crisis. Sure the banks are grand now.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

FYI. Article today in Irish Independent: “Blanchardstown Shopping Centre owner Blackstone is prepared to agree a consensual surrender of control of the asset if lenders including AIB don’t cut it a debt deal, sources have confirmed to the Irish Independent. Case shows how Covid losses are shifting rapidly from retailers, through landlords and onto the banks”

Irish Independent article here:https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/blackstone-and-aib-in-standoff-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-debt-39463682.html

Blackstone is a private equity firm(vulture fund to some) from the souls of it there are multiple lenders to it. I presume they bought the center between2010-2014.

A lot of these are like high stake poker games. The banks want Blackstone to pay it borrowings Blackstone is seeing if it can get a discount on the loan

Lolle06

bdmc5 wrote: »

Not everyone harbours this resentment of neighbours who paid less or more for homes or is so obsessed about buying at the lowest possible price. Some of neighbours paid 20k more than us for their homes and they are over the moon to have a place to finally call their own and move on a with life in a area they love.

I’m relieved to not have to pay more for same type of home but this vindictive pleasure you seem to relish are spending less is far from many first time buyer thoughts

I agree. If people think like that - where would they stop? How would they feel if one neighbour gets his house for pittance b/c they are SW tenants, another pays half of his house with his windfall from an personal injury claim, while another one pays his mortgage off within 3 years, b/c he works abroad and earns tax free money. Every persons circumstance is different. In the majority of cases, they just want to live somewhere where they are not constantly risking to get a notice by their LL for numerous reasons. They just want to settle. If they can afford the price, they pay it - no matter if the value will fall or rise in future.

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Blackstone is a private equity firm(vulture fund to some) from the souls of it there are multiple lenders to it. I presume they bought the center between2010-2014.

A lot of these are like high stake poker games. The banks want Blackstone to pay it borrowings Blackstone is seeing if it can get a discount on the loan

Looks like they bought Blanchardstown Shopping Centre in 2016 for €950m with most of it funded through borrowings (AIG and investment bank Morgan Stanley, alongside AIB, are owed €580m and Goldman Sachs owed €150m of less well secured mezzanine debt according to the article).

I'd assume they just want out and if they can easily pass the cost onto their lenders, I don't blame them.