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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #2582
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    schmittel wrote: »
    Skehan's point is that the 37 year old version of you is unlikely to want to buy it or something similiar.

    Or if as you point out, even if they do want to buy it, they will be in the minority.

    I think the main impact will be the very real options, that weren't previously available, that will drive the market price over the next few years.

    Before WFH, living in a city, while also preferable, was really the only option, unless you wanted to spend hours commuting every day.

    Now, even if they can afford the mortgage or have mortgage approval for a home near the city, some buyers may decide the extra €200k in borrowings isn't worth it and may decide to look much further afield.

    This may lower the number of potential bidders on each home that comes up for sale in the city or surrounding suburbs.


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    #2583
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I think the main impact will be the very real options, that weren't previously available, that will drive the market price over the next few years.

    Before WFH, living in a city, while also preferable, was really the only option, unless you wanted to spend hours commuting every day.

    Now, even if they can afford the mortgage or have mortgage approval for a home near the city, some buyers may decide the extra €200k in borrowings isn't worth it and may decide to look much further afield.

    This may lower the number of potential bidders on each home that comes up for sale in the city or surrounding suburbs.

    Careful now. Any alternative thinking will have you set upon here.


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    #2584
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Cyrus wrote: »
    so what do they want a house in the country?

    Better value. Wherever they might find it. It might well indeed be your house relative to what you paid for it.


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    #2585
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,823 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    smurgen wrote: »
    Rural Ireland isn't bustling,you drew that inference yourself. The point is that the main advantage of living in Dublin like the bustling lifestyle and the access to higher paying jobs has now changed dramatically. So is it still worth the premium on housing?

    Has it?

    I think you’re getting a little ahead of yourself.


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    #2586
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    I can work remotely no problem but give me the roughest part of Dublin over anywhere rural any day of the week.


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    #2587
    King Cantona
    Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭King Cantona


    awec wrote: »
    Yea, they're going to leave "deserted Dublin" ( :pac: ) for bustling rural Ireland. We are lucky that Covid came along so that people in Dublin could leave the city for the first time ever, and learn what rural Ireland looks like, and realise that they can all trade their 3 bed semi for a half acre in the sticks.

    There is some absolute rubbish posted on here sometimes.
    .

    Dublin will never be deserted, for sure. But do consider that there's been a huge difference in viability of living in rural ireland, or even outside Dublin for a lot of people since the previous times they visited. For the majority, WFH was not a viable option for many people previously and as much as rural ireland may have appealed, a 2-3 commute everyday wouldn't. In my own experience, both myself and my wife can WFH. I'm from Dublin, she isn't. So now rural ireland is a real, viable option (broadband dependent).


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    #2588
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    I can work remotely no problem but give me the roughest part of Dublin over anywhere rural any day of the week.

    So in this thread we're constantly told that people's situations are different and some need to buy now,can't wait. However this logic doesn't extend to prefences? Can people not accept that maybe those that were forced to live in cities now might finally try make the move?
    I have to say I find the shutting down of any sort of debate here to be extremely frustrating.it seems as if it's the status quo or nothing.


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    #2589
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,823 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    King Cantona wrote: »
    .

    Dublin will never be deserted, for sure. But do consider that there's been a huge difference in viability of living in rural ireland, or even outside Dublin for a lot of people since the previous times they visited. For the majority, WFH was not a viable option for many people previously and as much as rural ireland may have appealed, a 2-3 commute everyday wouldn't. In my own experience, both myself and my wife can WFH. I'm from Dublin, she isn't. So now rural ireland is a real, viable option (broadband dependent).

    Yes, it has.

    But the idea of a mass exodus of workers from the city to the country is pure wishful thinking. I am sure some people will move, but I am sure that many more won’t.

    People are talking here as if there’ll be queues out the M7, the great migration.

    Sure when the government tried to decentralise the public sector it was of limited success as they couldn’t get people to relocate.


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    #2590
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    awec wrote: »
    Yes, it has.

    But the idea of a mass exodus of workers from the city to the country is pure wishful thinking. I am sure some people will move, but I am sure that many more won’t.

    Sure when the government tried to decentralise the public sector it was of limited success as they couldn’t get people to relocate.

    City living isn't what it used to be.


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    #2591
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    smurgen wrote: »
    Rural Ireland isn't bustling,you drew that inference yourself. The point is that the main advantage of living in Dublin like the bustling lifestyle and the access to higher paying jobs has now changed dramatically. So is it still worth the premium on housing?

    OK now you are just making things up.............


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    #2592
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,823 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    smurgen wrote: »
    City living isn't what it used to be.

    It isn’t?

    Is rural Ireland unaffected by covid or something?


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    #2593
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    Commuting/Work is just one of the reasons why people live in Dublin. There are many other conveniences associated with living in an area local amenities within walking distance.

    What might happen (and maybe this is wishful thinking) is a revival of larger towns across the country. Particularly those that are well connected to road/rail/public transport infrastructure already. I live in a South Dublin suburb and to be honest I rarely get in my car to do anything. I love having shops, restaurants, parks nearby. Plenty of nice towns in Ireland that would meet the same criteria if the commuting to work is only occasional.


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    #2594
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    awec wrote: »
    It isn’t?

    Is rural Ireland unaffected by covid or something?

    Towns aren't as effected as say Dublin. All those concerts, matches events are gone. Towns and rural areas didn't have much public transport in the first place either.


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    #2595
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Cyrus wrote: »
    i actually agree with you on this, and i think this is the factor that will have the bigger impact as i dont think wfh en masse will actually materialise in the long term.

    no whether its 10-15 or 25-30 years away who knows, but it will be a game changer.

    It may be sooner than many of us think.

    You may be interested in this article from the Guardian this week, "Self-driving cars could be allowed on UK motorways next year".

    If this happened in a reasonable timeframe in Ireland, it could potentially open up every town and village in Ireland that is within a 10 minute drive of our motorway network.

    Guardian article link here: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/aug/18/self-driving-cars-allowed-motorways-industry-risk


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    #2596
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,823 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    smurgen wrote: »
    Towns aren't as effected as say Dublin. All those concerts, matches events are gone. Towns and rural areas didn't have much public transport in the first place either.

    They aren’t?

    Sure the pubs are closed, and you can’t go watch matches. Isn’t that what rural dwellers are complaining about? They’ve nothing to do, since the only things they are able to do are currently locked down?

    I live in a small town, and I wouldn’t claim we are less affected than Dublin. There is still vastly more choice of things to do in Dublin. The concerts will be back, the matches, events etc will be back. It would be silly to think they’re gone forever.

    City living isn’t what it used to be, but neither is living anywhere else.


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    #2597
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    Yes, it has.

    But the idea of a mass exodus of workers from the city to the country is pure wishful thinking. I am sure some people will move, but I am sure that many more won’t.

    People are talking here as if there’ll be queues out the M7, the great migration.

    Sure when the government tried to decentralise the public sector it was of limited success as they couldn’t get people to relocate.

    I don't think anybody is talking about a mass exodus out of Dublin, leavng tumbleweed in their wake.

    The whole point about a shift to WFH is that it won't take very many would be Dublin buyers to decide to move further afield to have a meaningful impact on Dublin prices.


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    #2598
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    OK now you are just making things up.............

    What I'm saying is that anyone with a high speed broadband can access a good well paying job. I've personally hired people working in West Cork. Before that person might have had to move to our Dublin office.


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    #2599
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,823 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    schmittel wrote: »
    I don't think anybody is talking about a mass exodus out of Dublin, leavng tumbleweed in their wake.

    The whole point about a shift to WFH is that it won't take very many would be Dublin buyers to decide to move further afield to have a meaningful impact on Dublin prices.

    He literally said deserted Dublin..


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    #2600
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    awec wrote: »
    It isn’t?

    Is rural Ireland unaffected by covid or something?

    Presumably the poster is implying some people will see living in a 2 bed apartment in Dublin with no access to greenspace isn't as attractive as it once was (cultural events, sports, concerts, pubs etc).

    On the other side, living 5 to 10 miles outside an urban centre in the country side may now have some upsides - a garden to sit in, more space in a property etc - and the sacrifices of doing this aren't what they once were (as the activity that was keeping them in Dublin isn't what it was) and work from home being extended makes this a more viable prospect. Covid is continuing to wreak havoc with peoples lives (creches for instance) so a lot can and will happen over the next 12 months.

    At no stage could it be interpreted that people were saying there would be tailbacks down the M7 and M4 to waterville, skibbereen, clifden and belmullet and widespread abandonment of Dublin


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    #2601
    smurgen
    Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    awec wrote: »
    They aren’t?

    Sure the pubs are closed, and you can’t go watch matches. Isn’t that what rural dwellers are complaining about? They’ve nothing to do, since the only things they are able to do are currently locked down?

    I live in a small town, and I wouldn’t claim we are less affected than Dublin. There is still vastly more choice of things to do in Dublin. The concerts will be back, the matches, events etc will be back. It would be silly to think they’re gone forever.

    City living isn’t what it used to be, but neither is living anywhere else.

    Access to beaches, forests, hiking,trails all greater in the country. People have more appreciation for the great outdoors now. Many smaller towns have amenities like cinemas and gyms etc. Plus larger towns like Midleton still have restaurants.


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    #2602
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,823 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    smurgen wrote: »
    Access to beaches, forests, hiking,trails all greater in the country. People have more appreciation for the great outdoors now. Many smaller towns have amenities like cinemas and gyms etc. Plus larger towns like Midleton still have restaurants.

    Dublin has all of this?

    Have you ever been to Dublin?


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    #2603
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    I assume the point is, a number of people won't be willing to pay the Dublin premium in the face of other less expensive alternatives.


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    #2604
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,823 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Graham wrote: »
    I assume the point is, a number of people won't be willing to pay the Dublin premium in the face of other less expensive alternatives.

    Yes, I don’t think anyone is disputing this.

    I am disputing how many people will make this trade off. I do not think it will be as significant as people believe.


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    #2605
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    I don't think it will take huge number for it to be significant.


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    #2606
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    Dublin has all of this?

    Have you ever been to Dublin?

    You're 100% correct. Dublin is a great city and it is probably the preference for most people.

    However, I do think that it will come down to a couple deciding if they wish to have an extra €200k in borrowings and if this is really worth it to live near a city given that WFH is now a very real possibility.

    Overall, I think the WFH and city vs rural living options, gives potential buyers very real options that they didn't think were available this time last year. This places city sellers and potential buyers on a more equal footing during potential negotiations on price.


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    #2607
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    smurgen wrote: »
    Access to beaches, forests, hiking,trails all greater in the country.

    This really isn't true!
    There are beaches, forests, lots of hiking routes, plenty of parks etc in the Dublin area.
    If I am in my home town, there is literally one walk that is possible to do, I still have to travel in my car to get to any hiking trails, beaches or even any possible walks in the local mountain/hill.


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    #2608
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    He literally said deserted Dublin..

    I thought he meant Dublin right now, it's quiet thanks to COVID, rather than some dystopian future.

    But the point stands even if smurgen is suggesting that Dublin will be deserted in the decades to come. It's not a widely held view amongst those who are saying WFH will have a significant impact.

    Certainly I have always maintained Dublin will be full. In fact I have never consider the impact will be an exodus.

    I just think it will mean a lot less people will choose to move/settle in Dublin now that they have additional options to consider.


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    #2609
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    Yes, I don’t think anyone is disputing this.

    I am disputing how many people will make this trade off. I do not think it will be as significant as people believe.

    I must have misunderstood you. What was the foresight you were suggesting in the post below:
    awec wrote: »
    Don’t think there were too many saying that prices would be driven up rurally! Half price houses everywhere was the message on here!

    I did suggest this but of course there were those saying it couldn’t possibly happen.


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    #2610
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 20,057 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    schmittel wrote: »
    Better value. Wherever they might find it. It might well indeed be your house relative to what you paid for it.

    well that depends on who is the arbiter of value,

    up to now people obviously saw value as they are buying the houses


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    #2611
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 20,057 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    smurgen wrote: »
    Access to beaches, forests, hiking,trails all greater in the country. People have more appreciation for the great outdoors now.

    depends on where you live, where i am in dublin i have all of the above a 5 minute walk away, and there is even a footpath so i wont get run over ;)


This discussion has been closed.
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