Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

GreeBo

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If he bought in 2005 and is on a tracker he on the best sure fire winner in history. His tracker would be in the 0.5-0.75% range. He had 2-3 bad years from 2009-2011 after that he was home free. He probably got a 110% @ 4-5 times earnings mortgage. If he borrowed 350K over 25 years his repayments at present are sub 1300/month and he pay a bit with 400K back over the 25 years and that is including the 2-3 years he was paying back at 3-4%

He would be much better off renting the same house and paying 2500/month for the last 15 years and pleading with the banks to give him a mortgage at 3.5% so he can finally own his own house (he would also have interesting repayments considering he probably wont get another 25 years to repay...)

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

So 2 people in the same company doing exactly the same job and one gets paid less
Good luck to the company if the one getting paid less is a woman

as another poster said there will be an in the office salary and a wfh salary, wfh can be anywhere, but there wont be the same salary for both doesnt make sense.

Graham

Mod Note

feel free to take the WFH salary debate to the Work & Jobs forum.

PropQueries

brisan wrote: »

Bigger availability of cheaper building land in rural areas.
Do you not think councils would fast track planning and builders build quickly if they thought there was a market

Even if significant demand for rural properties does materialise, there are tens of thousands of them available and ready to be marketed and sold.

Many of these properties probably haven't been marketed to date as the owners assumed there would be little demand.

If that now changes and the owners believe there may be demand for these homes, the owners of these properties may spend a small sum refurbishing them and placing them on the market. Increased supply should then lead to lower prices.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Even if significant demand for rural properties does materialise, there are tens of thousands of them available and ready to be marketed and sold.

I don't think so but open to evidence to the contrary.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I don't think so but open to evidence to the contrary.

I'm just going by the 90,000 vacant homes that the latest Geodirectory stated were in Ireland.

I'm not bringing this in to open that can of worms but many of the posters here seemed to believe they were all located in rural Ireland and not in the cities.

Stands to reason many of these are currently available and with a relatively small investment in refurbishment etc. would be available to enter the market in a relatively short period of time i.e. no planning permission, time to build etc.

I could be wrong.

MacronvFrugals

Houses in what people on here would call the dodgier parts of the northside are taking a hammering, daily 15-30k drops. I know some places over the southside are doing great price wise but its decent news for myself as a lot of these places are dropping back to half decent value so by the time i buy could grab a good deal.

Worth adding pre-pandemic there was rarely drops >3-5% in the same areas.

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

you think cairn and glenveagh are publishing false accounts?

Cairn and Glenveagh share prices have fallen significantly. They are discounting falls of over 10% in future sales.

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

This isn't my situation specifically to be clear. But in my view, the very obvious choice in this case is to go ahead and buy rather than spending 24000+ a year in rent to be in a precarious rental situation.

I think you will be very much in the minority if you think this couple shouldn't go ahead with their 350k deal.

I dont care about the consensus. The consensus...at least on this board is probably wrong.

You pay a lot of money to support the consensus, be it share trading or house purchase.

Keep an eye on Glenveagh and Cairn share prices.

The market says house prices are falling if their share price is anything to go on.

cnocbui

I think the currently buying/selling thread is a far better indication of how the market is going than the share market.

Pelezico

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Houses in what people on here would call the dodgier parts of the northside are taking a hammering, daily 15-30k drops. I know some places over the southside are doing great price wise but its decent news for myself as a lot of these places are dropping back to half decent value so by the time i buy could grab a good deal.

Worth adding pre-pandemic there was rarely drops >3-5% in the same areas.

Hold your nerve. The deals will get better.

brisan

Vikings wrote: »

Can everyone agree that WFH will not have any impact on 2020 property prices, kick it to touch and discuss it elsewhere and get back to talking about the current property market?

Viewed a house today asking 450k commuter town just outside Dublin. Sold for 410k 3 years ago and received significant work. EA reckons it'll go for 500k. I think in the present market it'll certainly fetch over asking probably 475-480.

Well I would not believe an EA if he told me his name without showing me his passport.
That said a lot of EAs are putting low asking prices on houses to garner interest

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

5 out of the 6 or 5 out of 11?

depends on your definition of prime as well, some locations are more prime than others, whatever it is, houses at that price on the northside dont tend to shift as well as similar on the southside.

5 out of 6
killester -clontarf border ,considered a prime location

MacronvFrugals

Pelezico wrote: »

Hold your nerve. The deals will get better.

Want to buy around June 2021 so hopefully they dont start going back up by then

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

If legit those margins are astonishing

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/belltree-belltree-clongriffin-dublin-13/3295777

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/wexford/new-homes/property-for-sale?maxprice=250000

Pelezico

brisan wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/belltree-belltree-clongriffin-dublin-13/3295777

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/wexford/new-homes/property-for-sale?maxprice=250000

Labour rates are lower outside Dublin.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

5 out of 6
killester -clontarf border ,considered a prime location

So they are selling albeit it’s taking time .

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Cairn and Glenveagh share prices have fallen significantly. They are discounting falls of over 10% in future sales.

Why are you quoting me I was asking a different poster a different question .

And their share prices have risen over the past 3 months oddly enough

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

Why are you quoting me I was asking a different poster a different question .

And their share prices have risen over the past 3 months oddly enough

Since February they are down heavily. The market, which is a fabulous discounting mechanism is anticipating falls in future prices.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Since February they are down heavily. The market, which is a fabulous discounting mechanism is anticipating falls in future prices.

Not only that. Cairn Homes had their IPO in 2015 at €1.00. Today, they are at €0.85. They hit €2.00 in January 2018. In December 2018, they were at €1.05.

The big investors, including the founders, have been selling their shareholdings (i.e. getting out) strongly for the past 18 months, long before Covid.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

Not only that. Cairn Homes had their IPO in 2015 at €1.00. Today, they are at €0.85. They hit €2.00 in January 2018. In December 2018, they were at €1.05.

The big investors, including the founders, have been selling their shareholdings (i.e. getting out) strongly for the past 18 months, long before Covid.

One can only assume the insiders do not have faith in the market.

Actually Glenveagh is selling apartments in Greystones for 500k. I would not touch them for 300k.

cnocbui

Pelezico wrote: »

Hold your nerve. The deals will get better.

Deals can get better if the market declines significantly, but the quality and choice will also decline as owners of quality properties will not list.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Since February they are down heavily. The market, which is a fabulous discounting mechanism is anticipating falls in future prices.

On 27 feb glenveagh was 75c and on 12 August they were 73 cent

You are just making stuff up

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Not only that. Cairn Homes had their IPO in 2015 at €1.00. Today, they are at €0.85. They hit €2.00 in January 2018. In December 2018, they were at €1.05.

The big investors, including the founders, have been selling their shareholdings (i.e. getting out) strongly for the past 18 months, long before Covid.

The founders wealth was tied in to their founder shares of course they were going to sell some of them that’s why they went ipo in the first place .

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

On 27 feb glenveagh was 75c and on 12 August they were 73 cent

You are just making stuff up

Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.

47c on 1 April now 68c serious growth over the period

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

On 27 feb glenveagh was 75c and on 12 August they were 73 cent

You are just making stuff up

Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.

They were the exact same share price a year ago as they are now

But go on and selectively pick a period that supports whatever it is you are trying to say

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

They were the exact same share price a year ago as they are now

But go on and selectively pick a period that supports whatever it is you are trying to say

But, wouldn't that show that the big investors weren't too confident about the future of the residential property market in Ireland even pre-covid?

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

But, wouldn't that show that the big investors weren't too confident about the future of the residential property market in Ireland even pre-covid?

Cairn Homes 134c down to 87c. A serious decline post covid.