Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

But, wouldn't that show that the big investors weren't too confident about the future of the residential property market in Ireland even pre-covid?

What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Cairn Homes 134c down to 87c. A serious decline post covid.

9 percent decrease yoy

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?

Just look at the graphs year to date for Cairn and Glenveagh. Both down and heavily.

They are discounting heavy falls in the future price if homes. Seems reasonable to me.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Just look at the graphs year to date for Cairn and Glenveagh. Both down and heavily.

They are discounting heavy falls in the future price if homes. Seems reasonable to me.

Why were they the same price a year ago ?

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

you think cairn and glenveagh are publishing false accounts?

No lets just say they are pushing the boundaries

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Houses in what people on here would call the dodgier parts of the northside are taking a hammering, daily 15-30k drops. I know some places over the southside are doing great price wise but its decent news for myself as a lot of these places are dropping back to half decent value so by the time i buy could grab a good deal.

Worth adding pre-pandemic there was rarely drops >3-5% in the same areas.

Any examples ??

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

Why were they the same price a year ago ?

I am only interested in my boy. He was gazumped early Feb and the market was hot.

Since then, things have headed south. I expect further decay myself.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?

Not a professional investor and can only go by Cairn Homes share price, but i'll give it my best shot.

I would assume investors who bought into Cairn Homes at the IPO price of €1.00 in 2015 did their analysis at that time and regarded €1.00 as fair value with some potential for upside.

Given that they were back at their IPO price in December 2018, two and half years later, would indicate that investors either overvalued Cairn Homes at the IPO stage or their view on the future of the Irish residential market deteriorated significantly in those two years and they then saw little value in the Irish residential market going forward.

Wouldn't a bet on Cairn Homes be a bet on the residential market in Ireland? If the estate agents are right about all the pent-up demand at the moment, wouldn't investors see this as a great buying opportunity for Cairn Homes? Unless the estate agents are not telling us the truth...

Maybe I'm wrong.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

Not a professional investor and can only go by Cairn Homes share price, but i'll give it my best shot.

I would assume investors who bought into Cairn Homes at the IPO price of €1.00 in 2015 did their analysis at that time and regarded €1.00 as fair value with some potential for upside.

Given that they were back at their IPO price in December 2018, two and half years later, would indicate that investors either overvalued Cairn Homes at the IPO stage or their view on the future of the Irish residential market deteriorated significantly in those two years and they then saw little value in the Irish residential market going forward.

Wouldn't a bet on Cairn Homes be a bet on the residential market in Ireland? If the estate agents are right about all the pent-up demand at the moment, wouldn't investors see this as a great buying opportunity for Cairn Homes? Unless the estate agents are not telling us the truth...

Maybe I'm wrong.

The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

It is not good guys. Any potential house buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

It is not good guys. Any potential buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.

Isn’t that what happened in 2007/ 2008? The investors couldn’t bet against our currency as we were in the Euro, so they bet against the stocks that best represented the Irish economy by proxy i.e. the banks.

In todays world, it’s the banks and the local home builders.

And yes, I have my very amateur investor hat on.

JJJackal

Pelezico wrote: »

The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

It is not good guys. Any potential house buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.

Above all else you want the property market to collapse. You have a vested interest in its collapse as your son is buying a property.

Alot of the data you present is selective eg picking out the highest share price of Glenveagh or Cairns and indicating a massive drop

JJJackal

Pelezico wrote: »

The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

It is not good guys. Any potential house buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.

The S&P 500 has its fastest growth of all times and is likely to reach an all time high in the next 6 months! Increased almost 50% in value. Looking good everyone!

(this of course fails to take into account the previous fastest fall of all times and the fact that it will be just about at the same level as the pre-crash peak!)

PropQueries

JJJackal wrote: »

Above all else you want the property market to collapse. You have a vested interest in its collapse as your son is buying a property.

Alot of the data you present is selective eg picking out the highest share price of Glenveagh or Cairns and indicating a massive drop

But Glenveagh and Cairn Homes share prices were falling continuously well before Covid. To me that would signal investors had a dim view of the future of the residential market in Ireland for at least the last two years.

Pelezico

JJJackal wrote: »

Above all else you want the property market to collapse. You have a vested interest in its collapse as your son is buying a property.

Alot of the data you present is selective eg picking out the highest share price of Glenveagh or Cairns and indicating a massive drop

Everybody on this board including the two active mods has a vested interest in the market. Let's not be under any illusion about that.

What price do you want to pick out for AIB or Bank of ireland which fell 5% today?

Tte economy is in dreadful shape and people should exercise caution when making the biggest financial decision of their lives.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?

About 126 - because that's what it was when their investors were at their most bullish, in January 2018. It's been trending downwards since then.

Its dropped 44% in that trend.

JJJackal

PropQueries wrote: »

But Glenveagh and Cairn Homes share prices were falling continuously well before Covid. To me that would signal investors had a dim view of the future of the residential market in Ireland for at least the last two years.

Glenveagh prices have almost doubled since March! thats unreal growth. A great sign of confidence in the building industry

(0.47 in March to 0.73 August) - why is the price of shares doubling?!

JJJackal

Pelezico wrote: »

Everybody on this board including the two active mods has a vested interest in the market. Let's not be under any illusion about that.

What price do you want to pick out for AIB or Bank of ireland which fell 5% today?

Tte economy is in dreadful shape and people should exercise caution when making the biggest financial decision of their lives.

I can pick 2 random dates to prove my point with AIB and BOI shares - I can show a catastrophic fall or a miraculous rise depending on dates in the last 1 year

Pelezico

JJJackal wrote: »

I can pick 2 random dates to prove my point with AIB and BOI shares - I can show a catastrophic fall or a miraculous rise depending on dates in the last 1 year

Then make your own decision. By the way, the credit risks and derating of Irish banks has been big news in the last year. Investors have been creamed.

Cairn and Glenveagh are poor performers.

It all adds up to very poor news in the not too distant future.

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

Then make your own decision. By the way, the credit risks and derating of Irish banks has been big news in the last year. Investors have been creamed.

Cairn and Glenveagh are poor performers.

It all adds up to very poor news in the not too distant future.

so your son needs you to tell him how bad things are going to get? I presume he is an adult so should be able to figure it out himself? If he can't he has no place buying a house.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

Isn’t that what happened in 2007/ 2008? The investors couldn’t bet against our currency as we were in the Euro, so they bet against the stocks that best represented the Irish economy by proxy i.e. the banks.

In todays world, it’s the banks and the local home builders.

And yes, I have my very amateur investor hat on.

Not sure if you were around in the last recession but one of the most criticised decisions, ridiculed internationally was AIB statement that they would adopt a progressive dividend policy, eve as the financial world was collapsing along with house prices.

AIB almost collapsed soon afterwards and house prices plummeted.

smurgen

Hubertj wrote: »

so your son needs you to tell him how bad things are going to get? I presume he is an adult so should be able to figure it out himself? If he can't he has no place buying a house.

So no one can get advice or take advice or else they have no business buying a house? Some mental gymnastics in here.

Pelezico

Hubertj wrote: »

so your son needs you to tell him how bad things are going to get? I presume he is an adult so should be able to figure it out himself? If he can't he has no place buying a house.

Now that is meant to be a personal insult.

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

So no one can get advice or take advice or else they have no business buying a house? Some mental gymnastics in here.

what i am saying is it doesn't take a genius to figure out the economy is not in a good place. With so much uncertainty and such a bad outlook as the poster keeps banging on about, it seems very clear you shouldn't buy. He just makes is such a simple decision.

Pelezico

Hubertj wrote: »

what i am saying is it doesn't take a genius to figure out the economy is not in a good place. With so much uncertainty and such a bad outlook as the poster keeps banging on about, it seems very clear you shouldn't buy. He just makes is such a simple decision.

That is not what you are saying....but you know that.

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

That is not what you are saying....but you know that.

ok

awec

Bank of Ireland share prices have been garbage since the last crash. Even when property values were exploding their share price was rubbish and heading downward. AIB same story.

The BOI share price, and Irish bank shares in general, are a terrible barometer for the state of the economy.

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

Bank of Ireland share prices have been garbage since the last crash. Even when property values were exploding their share price was rubbish and heading downward. AIB same story.

The BOI share price, and Irish bank shares in general, are a terrible barometer for the state of the economy.

I disagree about AIB. Its recent performance strongly suggests credit defaults. Just look at the article today in Indo about Blanchardstown Shopping Centre.

Retail problems are fast becoming banks problems. Personal credit defaults will soon follow if they have not already.

SteelyDanJalapeno

dor843088 wrote: »

Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.

Felt the need to come back to this post, we just got offered accepted at asking price for our dream home, been looking for 2 years.
We went in 10% under, and we were outbid. Went back and forth twice and we eventually offered asking.

Had we have taken the advice above, we would have lost it in the hope of catching out an EA? Not a risk I was willing to take for a few k.

OwlsZat

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Felt the need to come back to this post, we just got offered accepted at asking price for our dream home, been looking for 2 years.
We went in 10% under, and we were outbid. Went back and forth twice and we eventually offered asking.

Had we have taken the advice above, we would have lost it in the hope of catching out an EA? Not a risk I was willing to take for a few k.

Your post will either age really well or really badly. Coming back for an I told you so post before you know which is very premature. Congrats on buying your current idea of a dream house. Fingers crossed in a few years your not stuck there permanently drowning in a hopeless pool of negative equity.

SteelyDanJalapeno

OwlsZat wrote: »

Your post will either age really well or really badly. Coming back for an I told you so post before you know which is very premature. Congrats on buying your current idea of a dream house. Fingers crossed in a few years your not stuck there permanently drowning in a hopeless pool of negative equity.

Wasn't meant as an "I told you so".

The advise is not sound, and not applicable to every scenario.

Cheers!