Dairy Chitchat 4, an udder new thread.

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015186#Comment_118015186

You're assuming that there's no slurry going into his tanks during those 270 days of grazing and no dairy washings and zero rainfall on concrete going in making up that 2,500 g spread.

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015186#Comment_118015186

You do know I wouldn’t be stocked at 3.8 if I wasn’t growing the grass?

we we’re able to drop of the silage on 18th March and went grass with 4kg meal, got out all summer with no silage in but put it in for 12 days in September to build grass cover after the heat in August killed grass growth

can’t say I know any other farm in my area that’s been able to do the same and the spring this year was dreadful but that’s standard for us for the last couple of years

you’re assuming I’m landing it on and it not being used

I’m on about spreading more slurry on MP to reduce chemical N

all our dairy washings go into slurry tanks, one tank is unroofed also

built a new one this year that has us at 18 weeks storage for current stock numbers inc dairy washings

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015692#Comment_118015692

The thing to remember is that high production doesnt tend to result in high nitrogen or phosphorus use efficiencies.

Low input does however. Do the sums if you dont believe it.

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015712#Comment_118015712

Yes correct but we don’t spread slurry or N unless conditions are there for uptake

this farm not so long ago had a ph of 5.5and no p or k registering on soil tests

and could barely feed 40% of current herd plus followers at time

we still wouldn’t be at index 4 either

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015774#Comment_118015774

Only 20ish% of the n that comes in your gate is leaving in milk or beef even with you spreading in good conditions for uptake. The only way to boost that figure is spread less and reduce output

GrasstoMilk

reducing output isn’t gonna happen

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016130#Comment_118016130

Try it out for yourself and come back to us I'm all for looking at the results of your trials

straight

Grass tetany weather. Had a case today.

whelan2

Very cold out there now

mf240

New grass for tommorow . Spoiled with the weather this year

green daries

Fair play looks mighty

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016169#Comment_118016169

That's what your up against. The powers that be want efficiency to go up and losses down. They can make it happen but it will only be possible to bury ones head in the sand or go below the radar for so long and then what do you do?

kevthegaff

I was talking to a friend last night, himself and his brother have reduced numbers in the last year or two. The workload was just too much he said

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017336#Comment_118017336

We all know farms that might be only 5-6 years into mortgages taken out against the farm to ramp up numbers/facilities etc, all based on x amount of cows on x amount of acres and x amount of milk sales each year to pay for it....

It's a catch 22 if you comply cut numbers your at risk of defaulting on your mortgage repayments, if you stay the same your just hoping you don't get a inspection that could close you down into the future if they do craic down, the second option is the default position most lads will take unless the government want to subsidise these farms that they can meet their financial obligations and cut down on numbers but that's la la land stuff to be fair

Injuryprone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017846#Comment_118017846

Whatever mortgage anyone took out is entirely their own business and responsibility. Everyone's a big boy/girl. The environment doesn't owe anyone a certain level of income.

What about someone that decided to be responsible not to push their land to 102%? Shouldn't they also be topped up to compensate them for the shortfall in the potential income they missed out on over the last few years?

Injuryprone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016169#Comment_118016169

Shur why don't you add another 50 cows while you're at it? You'll probably be ok if you spread another 100 units and feed another half tonne. You'll be growing 20 ton of grass then, think of the income you'll have!

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017846#Comment_118017846

They could all be thrown under the bus no problem with our current gov. So whatever about wanting to hold onto max production, a realisation that some innovation and change is needed seems to be lacking.

Solutions are dismissed without being tried and adapted to make them work. It's either a very ballsy thing to be doing or very stupid. Only time will tell but I would not be leaving it up to either teagasc or gov/dafm to be a major factor in the survival of my own business in the long-term

cjpm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017846#Comment_118017846

Well if milk price remains steady or drops 10-20%…..

Diesel and Elec up 30%

Contractor up 20%

Feed up 30%

Fert up 40%.

All those business plans prepared to back up loan applications would be out the window.

Imagine if interest rates went up 2% as well

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018267#Comment_118018267

Cash flow regardless of increasing costs, is what keeps the wheels turning on highly leveraged farms, in alot of instances lads will just use merchant credit, leave the contractor hanging etc etc....

Re milk price future contracts for skim/butter combined in Europe are returning 40 cent a litre after shipping and processing costs, milk price needs to be in the 40's next year, especially with spiraling fertilizer costs, if the co-ops don't want to pay this well and good but expecing a large % of your supplier base to keep the milk flowing at a loss making price only works for so long

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018149#Comment_118018149

It was a government and processor lead push to ramp up milk supplies to be fair remember harvest 2020, personal responsibility of course comes into it, but if a farm has say debt/interest repayments of 400 euro a cow yearly on a 300 cow herd and he's made go back to 200 cows his debt/interest repayment now climb to 600 euro a cow, combine this with loss of income due to less milk sales, and you go from having a viable operation to a loss making farm....

The point about paying lads off to cover their projected losses in the above scenario means they wouldn't try and just keep going as is and forgo their sfp

cjpm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018311#Comment_118018311

If there was a perfect storm as regards dairy inputs, the first thing that would happen is that any merchants and contractors with any business brain would put the brakes on the credit. Pay on the day or take your business else where.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018416#Comment_118018416

Merchants can but contractors unless the kit is paid for and not on the drip can't afford to lose any big customers by opting for the above approach, they like the dairy man need to turning x amount of revenue to meet financial commitments if a contractor say dropped two big clients that they where doing all slurry/silage etc, for fear of non-payment that could leave a 80-90k hole in their projected revenue for the year

Injuryprone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018366#Comment_118018366

Can you run the numbers for me for an example of how a farmer currently legally stocking 300 cows will have to get rid of 33% of his herd under the proposed regulations?

I have to laugh every time I hear someone say "shur I just won't claim the sfp, I can do what I like then". People are very nieve.

The only thing that's saving you at the minute is that you're in a miniscule minority. The minute that changes, even a little bit, there'll be a clampdown. And my bet will be that qa will be used.

It's very bad for the image of farming to have lots of farmers openly ignoring the industry's best efforts to improve water quality and reduce environmental damage by reducing overstocking.

It's quite easy for dafm to monitor the amount of land with no entitlements being claimed. If anything, if land goes from having a consistent sfp drawn down on it to zero, it'll probably raise a big red flag in dafm.

Gawddawggonnit

If N prices continue to rise or even stay as they are, it’s almost certain to influence spring planting strategies in the US. They will switch from corn to beans…immediately corn will track the price of N.

Higher corn prices would suit me just fine, but Joe dairy farmer will be hit hard with rocketing meal prices. Then there’s a double whammy.

Maybe lads should be having a conversation with their friendly tillage farmer??

Just saying.

Pinsnbushings

I think the the coops are confident lads will keep the milk flowing in regardless, after all many farmers have been supplying beef and lamb to factories at a loss for 25 years.

At the end of the day I think alot of farmers just want to milk more cows than the lad up the road. Maybe unfair and maybe dairy will be different to the other enterprises.

jaymla627

Their is 50 cows gone if at the highest band straight of the bat, the 250kgs/n derogation limit isn't even guaranteed for 2022, eu has to sign off on it yet, and you can bet what the department has served up to them won't be enough to get it over the line without Brussels adding on a few things....

On bord bia shutting down farms, will you give over, the messing and bollocking they have been turning a blind eye to wholesale over the years is well known, we all know of farms if the letter of the law had been followed according to bord bia rules and regulations should of had their status revoked after the prime time show that never got to be seen thanks to covid 19, its a non-issue now two years later and normal service has resumed on that front

Mooooo

Unfortunately part of the reason some beef/ sheep may have kept supplying at a loss is they have been able to get off farm work. Wouldnt be suitable with dairy. The other difference is the capital investment required has been higher

Any I know off that have grown is generally for a few reasons,

To increase income for themselves,

To increase the farm size to provide an income for farmer and successor

To make the best use of the assest they have the best way they know how

Generally the talk of wanting more cows than the lad up the road comes from someone looking in over the ditch imo.

Always come back to the fact that for whatever reason farmers in Ireland actually acting like a business in being able to grow, pay a wage or pay down debt is near looked down upon. Any other small business be it a shop, pharmacy builder etc are told fairplay

They want us to work for nothing, not get a return to make life easier, and be happy with our lot. Wouldnt surprise me they are so far detached from it they would prefer to see us on the 3 legged stool in our 60s with a couple of cows for the house

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018649#Comment_118018649

Maize silage balanced with soya bean meal is my thinking for autumn 2022 into 2023 as a good wedge of the diet, provided soya bean drops down in price given increased acres going in worldwide

mf240

Playing devils advocate.

If i was glanbia or kerry or any of the creameries looking at farmers.

Meal heading up

Fert heading up

Milk price only gone up a **** one cent and farmers are still willing to increase production and work harder some are even willing to turn down support payments so they can milk more cows.

Id say to myself these fooking farmers will suppy us regarless of how badly we treat them.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118019008#Comment_118019008

They also know alot of their suppliers have trading accounts run-up that never seem to get cleared and heading into the spring they are going to have to extend out credit in the tens of millions for expensive fertilizer our leave lads deemed a risk without it, the 270 odd farmers that took retirement from glanbia with alot of other suppliers refused it as it was over-subscribed doesn't paint a rosy picture