Green List (Who will be on it?)

Donald Trump

RoryMac wrote: »

You can see the last 14 day totals at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

The population of Ireland is around 4.9m so take Ireland's number(259) and divide by 49 to get the per 100k number. Gives us a number of 5.3(rounding up)

Malta have a 14 day total of 112 at present and with a population of 510k they have a number of 112÷5.1 = 21.9

The thing to add might be that if there was a genuine single blip on a single day, that day disappears from the calculations 14 days later.

Of course though, if the list is updated every 2 weeks, it could happen that there is up to another 2 weeks until that is updated after the spike disappears from that country's number

RoryMac

Donald Trump wrote: »

The thing to add might be that if there was a genuine single blip on a single day, that day disappears from the calculations 14 days later.

Of course though, if the list is updated every 2 weeks, it could happen that there is up to another 2 weeks until that is updated after the spike disappears from that country's number

Absolutely, Malta for instance has added over 100 cases in the last 2 days which has completely changed their figures.

Also as an indication of how quickly things change the Malta figure is now showing as 140 for the last 14 days but when I checked 20 mins ago to work it out it was 112.

Donald Trump

RoryMac wrote: »

Absolutely, Malta for instance has added over 100 cases in the last 2 days which has completely changed their figures.

Also as an indication of how quickly things change the Malta figure is now showing as 140 for the last 14 days but when I checked 20 mins ago to work it out it was 112.

The worry is that that trend stays up there.



The day-on-day change will be the difference between the figure 14 days ago, which is falling off the end of the calculation list, and today's figure which is being added on, divided by the number of 100k's population.


If they have say 500k people, then 100 cases today will add 20 to the stat. And if, at the same time, there were 20 cases 14 days ago which are falling off the list today, those will subtract only 4 from the stat.

RoryMac

Donald Trump wrote: »

The worry is that that trend stays up there.



The day-on-day change will be the difference between the figure 14 days ago, which is falling off the end of the calculation list, and today's figure which is being added on, divided by the number of 100k's population.


If they have say 500k people, then 100 cases today will add 20 to the stat. And if, at the same time, there were 20 cases 14 days ago which are falling off the list today, those will subtract only 4 from the stat.

The additional cases in Malta in the last few days have been way off anything seen in the last 60 days in terms of numbers due in the main to a migrant ship containing 90+ people who were nearly all found to be positive for Covid.

With the numbers they've had previously its going to be a massive blip in their stats that will take the 14 days to fall off.

Limpy

Will the gov give green list travellers a head's up if they are to be removed from the list, in order to return home.

Donald Trump

RoryMac wrote: »

The additional cases in Malta in the last few days have been way off anything seen in the last 60 days in terms of numbers due in the main to a migrant ship containing 90+ people who were nearly all found to be positive for Covid.

With the numbers they've had previously its going to be a massive blip in their stats that will take the 14 days to fall off.

That is what I am sure they are hoping. The danger though is that those 100 imported cases seeded some more "random" cases about the place.



It is probably less likely if they were taken in as a migrant ship than if they had stepped off a plane, but it is also not impossible that there will be some local clusters seeded from it that take a while to die down.


The above is also the argument I have against people taking non essential travel. Too many people going and coming and at least a few of them will seed new clusters here. Then we find ourselves in what would have been a preventable situation where we are back in lockdown with more severe restrictions.

Feria40

RoryMac wrote: »

The additional cases in Malta in the last few days have been way off anything seen in the last 60 days in terms of numbers due in the main to a migrant ship containing 90+ people who were nearly all found to be positive for Covid.

With the numbers they've had previously its going to be a massive blip in their stats that will take the 14 days to fall off.

All the more reason why the decision makers on the green list need to get behind the numbers. IMO it would be unfair to remove Malta given that the spike was driven by the Maltese authorities rescuing a heavily infected migrant boat.

Limpy

Donald Trump wrote: »

That is what I am sure they are hoping. The danger though is that those 100 imported cases seeded some more "random" cases about the place.



It is probably less likely if they were taken in as a migrant ship than if they had stepped off a plane, but it is also not impossible that there will be some local clusters seeded from it that take a while to die down.


The above is also the argument I have against people taking non essential travel. Too many people going and coming and at least a few of them will seed new clusters here. Then we find ourselves in what would have been a preventable situation where we are back in lockdown with more severe restrictions.

Sure let's close down all meat factories while were at it. We'll keep the numbers down, pat ourselves on the back and end up destroying the economy.

bladespin

Limpy wrote: »

Sure let's close down all meat factories while were at it. We'll keep the numbers down, pat ourselves on the back and end up destroying the economy.

With the vast majority of recent outbreaks being work related, ewe'd be safer on the planes.

Limpy

bladespin wrote: »

With the vast majority of recent outbreaks being work related, ewe'd be safer on the planes.

Definitely, sure just tell Covid your going for an essential reason and he won't go near you.

Donald Trump

Limpy wrote: »

Sure let's close down all meat factories while were at it. We'll keep the numbers down, pat ourselves on the back and end up destroying the economy.

Well I suppose it comes down to choices then doesn't it?


They'll have to decide which is more important? Keeping a factory open or letting Limpy go off on his 19.99 holiday to Santa Ponsa.

bladespin

Limpy wrote: »

Definitely, sure just tell Covid your going for an essential reason and he won't go near you.

eat a €9 meal on the plane (yuk) and you'll be immune.

un5byh7sqpd2x0

Limpy wrote: »

What's the math formula for getting the number. I want to forecast some countries for my next holiday.

You can get the number of cases from each country's public site - you may have to go back 14 days to get the number then too, but some (Spain for example) publish the 14 day cumulative also. Each source used by the ECDC is here - https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID19_EU.EEA_.UK_Subnational_Sources.xlsx

Firstly, get the number of cases over the past 14 days and then divide by the population divided by 100,000.

So for example, fantasy country...

1000 cases over the past 14 days
Population of 10 million divided by 100,000 gives 100.
1000 / 100 = 10 which is the number published.

MickeyLeari

Or just use this link which is updated daily and does all the calculations for you.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

un5byh7sqpd2x0

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Or just use this link which is updated daily and does all the calculations for you.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

I should have mentioned that that data is out of date by 24 hours depending on the country. For example, you can work out what Spain & Portugal will be on that list tomorrow by my method.

Limpy

Limpy wrote: »

Sure let's close down all meat factories while were at it. We'll keep the numbers down, pat ourselves on the back and end up destroying the economy.

Despite the carry on from the meat factory operators in Germany they just had to keep them open as the animals need to be slaughtered otherwise the farmers have to continue feeding them or else the animals starve.
It really is a case of the factories brazenly saying we didn't abide, won't abide and there is nothing you can do about it.

Limpy

Paul Murphy was calling for factory inspections early on and I guess nobody bothered to inspect them. Heather will send people to the airport but the government won't send them to Dodgy workplaces.

MickeyLeari

Zelda Creamy Gym wrote: »

I should have mentioned that that data is out of date by 24 hours depending on the country. For example, you can work out what Spain & Portugal will be on that list tomorrow by my method.

I understand that the Govt are basing the calculation on this list.

Donald Trump

Limpy wrote: »

Paul Murphy was calling for factory inspections early on and I guess nobody bothered to inspect them. Heather will send people to the airport but the government won't send them to Dodgy workplaces.

Paul Murphy me bollix.

All he does is moan and throw tantrums.

I'd say there is nothing he hasn't given out about.

Wallander

If Kildare were treated as an independent country, it would be on course to have the second highest infection rate in Europe by my calculation:

-Population a little over 200,000
-44 cases in Kildare last two days, so around 20 per 100,000
-List is based in two week data, so 20x7 would give Kildare 140 per 100,000 over two weeks, should current trends continue, second worst in Europe behind Luxembourg

Obviously Kildare isn't an independent state, but Ireland's green list does include four territories with a smaller population than Kildare and two non-independent entities (Greenland & Gibraltar)

Donald Trump

Wallander wrote: »

If Kildare were treated as an independent country, it would be on course to have the second highest infection rate in Europe by my calculation:

-Population a little over 200,000
-44 cases in Kildare last two days, so around 20 per 100,000
-List is based in two week data, so 20x7 would give Kildare 140 per 100,000 over two weeks, should current trends continue, second worst in Europe behind Luxembourg

Obviously Kildare isn't an independent state, but Ireland's green list does include four territories with a smaller population than Kildare and two non-independent entities (Greenland & Gibraltar)

I have long been a strong proponent of having a strong lockdown for Kildare. A proper one - nobody in or out. "Build that wall" so to speak.


And that was long before corona - it was mainly to get Darcy off the radio.

Feria40

Donald Trump wrote: »

I have long been a strong proponent of having a strong lockdown for Kildare. A proper one - nobody in or out. "Build that wall" so to speak.


And that was long before corona - it was mainly to get Darcy off the radio.

:D

Cork Lass

Is the list due to be updated this weekend?

RoryMac

Cork Lass wrote: »

Is the list due to be updated this weekend?

Supposed to be updated on Tuesday

un5byh7sqpd2x0

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I understand that the Govt are basing the calculation on this list.

That’s my understanding too, though I’m not sure where they are getting the numbers for Gibraltar, San Marino, Monaco and Greenland from.

faceman

Wallander wrote: »

If Kildare were treated as an independent country, it would be on course to have the second highest infection rate in Europe by my calculation:

-Population a little over 200,000
-44 cases in Kildare last two days, so around 20 per 100,000
-List is based in two week data, so 20x7 would give Kildare 140 per 100,000 over two weeks, should current trends continue, second worst in Europe behind Luxembourg

Obviously Kildare isn't an independent state, but Ireland's green list does include four territories with a smaller population than Kildare and two non-independent entities (Greenland & Gibraltar)

Very interesting and one worth sharing

Incidentally none of those cases in Kildare resulted in hospital cases

Wallander

faceman wrote: »

Very interesting and one worth sharing

Incidentally none of those cases in Kildare resulted in hospital cases

faceman wrote: »

Very interesting and one worth sharing

Incidentally none of those cases in Kildare resulted in hospital cases

Another 14 cases in Kildare last two days, so 58 in four days. It's pretty straightforward to do a calculation and see its current trend would still be the second highest in Europe.



58/2.2 = 26.1 cases per 100,000 last four days (population of Kildare is 220,000)
26.1/4 x 14 = 91.4 incidence per 100,000 over 14 days at current rate


So, if Kildare were independent, you'd have:


Luxembourg - 209.5
Kildare - 91.4
Romania - 79.4
Spain - 60.2
Sweden - 30.7
UK - 13.1

taegukgi

Any idea When are they going to announce new update about Green List?

Batesout

taegukgi wrote: »

Any idea When are they going to announce new update about Green List?

I think its tomorrow.
i'd say Kildare won't be on the list.:)

LilyShame

Kildare definitely off the green list, along with Maltas misfortune with the migrants and a few hotel parties. Italy and Greece hanging in there, Cyprus borderline I think altho losing track of ecdc.

As we look back on this conversation....

What's the actual evidence that flying is unsafe? I've read nothing in the media and I'm sure they would be only happy to jump on a story.

The prices for accommodation in Ireland are just ridiculous... But I guess it feels poor value for money due to the crap weather.

Irelands numbers are catching up with UK so our Minister should not be too smug.

Has the travel shaming settled, have you noticed?