Opening of "No-Food" pubs pushed out again

dominatinMC

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

What are you basing the success criteria on?

Since they don’t even know if the vaccination stops the spread of the virus, or how many new strains there will be or how transmissible they will be or whether they’ll all be conveyed by the current vaccines, or how long the vaccines give immunity for, then I don’t know how you could set criteria for success or failure. Are they randomly created criteria?

At this stage they can just rollout the vaccine as effectively as possible and hope for the best.

Criteria? Surely there is only one criterion - and that is hospital admissions/illnesses/deaths. If, come winter, these are negligible then we can assume the vaccine program has been successful. If, however, we are still wearing masks and distancing, then that can only mean the general population at large is still at risk and that the vaccine program hasn't been successful in providing herd immunity. Otherwise why would we still need masks and distancing?

Dickie10

it looks as though the entire population has been broken by this, there spirit , brendan o conner summed up well in sundays indo. people are afraid to even let themselves believe in any lifting of restrictions, they are just putting one foot in front of the other now, grinding down days/weeks/months. even news media seems to not even mention were in level 5 anymore its surreal. if the government said actually its level 6 tomorrow and you cant go further than 2 km people wouldnt even blink, just say yea whatever......... people are broken now, may as well stay locked down til may 1 get number right down, then open up unrestricted for good.

PommieBast

Dickie10 wrote: »

it looks as though the entire population has been broken by this, there spirit , brendan o conner summed up well in sundays indo. people are afraid to even let themselves believe in any lifting of restrictions, they are just putting one foot in front of the other now, grinding down days/weeks/months.

For me it was that chief-wotzit in the HSE stating "restrictions in some form are likely for the rest of 2021". On that time-scale rather than living in hope that my old haunts have not gone bust, I want to start a new life in a different city/country.

Pintman Paddy Losty

PommieBast wrote: »

For me it was that chief-wotzit in the HSE stating "restrictions in some form are likely for the rest of 2021". On that time-scale rather than living in hope that my old haunts have not gone bust, I want to start a new life in a different city/country.

Emigrating because you can't go to your favourite pub :rolleyes:

opinionated3

It's amazing to think that it feels like only yesterday mental health was a huge priority issue in this country. Now that the authorities have "broken" people as the poster above put it, it's completely forgotten about. I'm certainly noticing changes in my mood, not to mention my friends and work colleagues. "Broken" is absolutely the appropriate word.

Tazz T

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Emigrating because you can't go to your favourite pub :rolleyes:

I read that as emigrating because they are greater freedoms elsewhere. No one wants to stay locked down in their house for the next year because the government are are afraid of an improbable fourth wave (no precedent in human history with or without a vax) while, in the meantime, just about everyone is vaxxed and infections are low.

El_Duderino 09

Coybig_ wrote: »

Utterly irrelevant if the vulnerable are vaccinated.



Currently completely irrelevant, until a new strain is discovered that the vaccine does not protect against then we should not be twiddling our thumbs waiting for a mutation to occur. 6 weeks is the time it would take to adjust an mRNA vaccine.



Once again, irrelevant once the vulnerable are vaccinated.



This is the same point as above.



It's likely to be at least a year so worse case scenario, it can be administered yearly like the flu jab, if it comes to it.



At this stage they can acnowledge that the virus is lethal to a tiny, tiny minority of the population, and once those people are safe from the effects of Covid, then the remainder - the majority of the population who are most affected by lockdown and least affected by the virus - can get back on with their lives as they were before.

Obviously there are still a few like yourself who get their kicks off lockdown and want to remain in it permanently. The rest of us want and expect normality to resume rapidly.

All those questions are relevant to the question I asked which was about how you evaluate the criteria for successful vaccine rollout.

The fact that you didn't want to even consider some of those questions is very telling. The hopeless optimism that we can vaccinate the vulnerable and then let the virus rip through the community, is understandable, but it's also silly. It's fine as a fantasy about what you would like opt happen, but the fact that it won't happen should lead to more realistic expectations.

The question of what would constitute a successful vaccine rollout, remains unanswered. I think they have to rollout the vaccine as thoroughly and effectively as possible and hope for the best regarding the other factors such as new strains being more transmissible, more dangerous or not covered by the current vaccine. Those things would lead to delayed reopening but wouldn't mean the vaccine rollout wasn't done well.

El_Duderino 09

dominatinMC wrote: »

Criteria? Surely there is only one criterion - and that is hospital admissions/illnesses/deaths. If, come winter, these are negligible then we can assume the vaccine program has been successful. If, however, we are still wearing masks and distancing, then that can only mean the general population at large is still at risk and that the vaccine program hasn't been successful in providing herd immunity. Otherwise why would we still need masks and distancing?

I think we're talking at cross purposes. I'm referring to the process of building a vaccine and then procurement and rollout of the vaccine. If a new strain comes along which isn't covered by the vaccine, then we have to deal with that reality, but it just means the new goal is to come up with a broader vaccine. Likewise, if the new strains are more dangerous or more transmissible, then that changes the calculations on distancing and masks and other measures.

I think all we can ask is for people to do their best and if things happen beyond our control (virus mutations etc.), then we need to deal with those things.

Failing to rollout the vaccine effectively, would be a failure.
Failing to precure the vaccine, would be a failure.

Getting the vaccine rolled out and given to most of the community before the numbers go up again towards the end of the year, and allow all businesses to reopen without having to lockdown again, would be a realistic and conservative success. Better than that would be a bigger success.

PommieBast

Tazz T wrote: »

I read that as emigrating because they are greater freedoms elsewhere. No one wants to stay locked down in their house for the next year because the government are are afraid of an improbable fourth wave (no precedent in human history with or without a vax) while, in the meantime, just about everyone is vaxxed and infections are low.

Certainly a large part of it is frustration of how Ireland has just left people waiting far longer than anywhere else, and this applies to more than just pubs reopening. For instance INIS have basically just said I will need to wait another 3+ months for my Irish passport whereas HMPO took 5 days for my British one.

For two years of misery I don't want to wait for if/when things to go back to the way they were. I want to look forward to better things. Dublin's dysfunctional accommodation and punitive personal taxation levels spring to mind.

PommieBast

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Emigrating because you can't go to your favourite pub :rolleyes:

This is a thread on pubs

doublejobbing 2

PTH2009 wrote: »

'Senior figures in the industry are understood to have recently asked Government if a reopening would be possible after the end of March when the most vulnerable people in the country have been vaccinated against Covid 19 but were told this was not likely'

What kind of science can they possibly base this nonsense on?

I did the maths in an earlier post about how many people died with Covid in their system in the months that the pubs were open on a previous post.

If we count deaths starting from two weeks after June 29th, 83 deaths are logged up until early October. 104 are logged for the rest of October, attributable to community spread caused primarily by the reopening of schools and colleges, whose attendees all largely caught the virus due to it being reimported from the UK, Spain, the US and Eastern Europe, due to a complete and deliberate failure of the government and NPHET to enforce any sort of restrictions.

These of course are not even mostly Covid deaths. They are deaths where Covid was in the system. They are deaths of people who by and large were on death's door anyway. Over half of these people were over 83 years old from memory. NPHET won't give you the number of how many relatively fit and reasonably healthy and active OAP's died directly from Covid between July and late October because it wouldn't fit their narrative. Of keeping the public, particularly the elderly, afraid of their own shadow.

In four months, three of which the pubs were open, 187 people died with Covid in their system. By the end of March, everyone over 70 is scheduled to be vaccinated if they consent, along with the health staff they interact with.

187 people died with Covid in their system in the months that the pubs were open. The vast, vast majority of them over 70. Many of these people didn't die of Covid, they died with it. Many more were on death's door when they caught it and would have died in the coming days and weeks.

By the end of March every person over 70 who wants a Covid vaccine will have gotten one.

What can possibly justify a further delay?

It will be food pubs with time limits and €9 meal again for the summer. The worse thing about it im starting to accept that

In July I accepted the food thing, grudgingly. Better than nothing after all.

When the outside Dublin pubs were allowed the two weeks of no food rules, I slipped across the border. It was eye opening. I hadn't realised it but there was just a buzz about the atmosphere that seemed to have been repressed by the food rule.

The three weeks of pints allowed at Christmas just didn't feel the same as before.

doublejobbing 2

Dickie10 wrote: »

if the government said actually its level 6 tomorrow and you cant go further than 2 km people wouldnt even blink, just say yea whatever......... people are broken now, may as well stay locked down til may 1 get number right down, then open up unrestricted for good.

Mind games.

Holohan came back in early October and advocated a full, nationwide lockdown. Government "stood up" to him, said we will shut the pubs and nothing else before going after retail and imposing inter county limits later on.

People were inclined to think "it could be worse" because we avoided a hard lockdown.

El_Duderino 09

Dickie10 wrote: »

it looks as though the entire population has been broken by this, there spirit , brendan o conner summed up well in sundays indo. people are afraid to even let themselves believe in any lifting of restrictions, they are just putting one foot in front of the other now, grinding down days/weeks/months. even news media seems to not even mention were in level 5 anymore its surreal. if the government said actually its level 6 tomorrow and you cant go further than 2 km people wouldnt even blink, just say yea whatever......... people are broken now, may as well stay locked down til may 1 get number right down, then open up unrestricted for good.

The situation is changing all the time so how cold you decide when to lift restrictions at this point? There are so many factors which aren't understood, and some are unknowable at this stage. So what else can we do except put one foot in front of the other and keep moving?

The worst thing you could do is set an arbitrary set of criteria, ignore all the rest of the facts, and then get disappointed when your arbitrary prediction doesn't happen. You see loads of posters falling into this lazy thinking.

The truth is we don't know when things will reopen. Some people are really uncomfortable with not knowing so they make up facts or ignore facts. Neither is sensible. Admitting that we don't know, and doing our best, is sensible.

Tenzor07

doublejobbing 2 wrote: »

Mind games.
Holohan came back in early October and advocated a full, nationwide lockdown. Government "stood up" to him, said we will shut the pubs and nothing else before going after retail and imposing inter county limits later on..

Holoham has an agenda against the Pubs...and the consumption of Alcohol in Ireland...Never waste a good opportunity! And if he can break the Irish "love of the drink" then he will...and bring in a European Cafe style Pub where people come in have a few drinks and food and leave within a couple of hours rather than the traditional day long session then he'll be very happy!

And it's a great distraction for the "Rabble" citizens to squabble about and distract attention from where Covid is really being transmitted in...

IAMAMORON

I must admit as much as I miss the pub I do find some of these Paddy Holohan conspiracies completely nauseating and downright garbage.

Anyone believing that there is some sort of private cabal within the enshrines of the HSE power vacuum have to far too much time on their hands.

Power certainly corrupts and right now Dr Holohan is the biggest dick in the room, but that does not mean he is winking at the non-drinking plebs for a high five. He is just doing his job.

Yes there is a considerable anti - booze lobby in Ireland by the looks off things ... and he might be a middle class wino, but he is not spending his time running around trying to shut pubs.

Tenzor07

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I must admit as much as I miss the pub I do find some of these Paddy Holohan conspiracies completely nauseating and downright garbage. Anyone believing that there is some sort of private cabal within the enshrines of the HSE power vacuum have to far too much time on their hands.Power certainly corrupts and right now Dr Holohan is the biggest dick in the room, but that does not mean he is winking at the non-drinking plebs for a high five. He is just doing his job. Yes there is a considerable anti - booze lobby in Ireland by the looks off things ... and he might be a middle class wino, but he is not spending his time running around trying to shut pubs.

His job is to manage the committee who are dealing with the Health response to the Covid Crisis...
He's kept the pubs closed since last March even when the rest of Europe kept their pubs open all through the summer... why keep them closed when everywhere else had them open? Why the focus on keeping them closed where they didn't contribute to the case numbers last Summer?

El_Duderino 09

Tenzor07 wrote: »

His job is to manage the committee who are dealing with the Health response to the Covid Crisis...
He's kept the pubs closed since last March even when the rest of Europe kept their pubs open all through the summer... why keep them closed when everywhere else had them open? Why the focus on keeping them closed where they didn't contribute to the case numbers last Summer?

You could answer that question if you wanted to. The Irish pub is different to other pubs. It's been mentioned loads of times in this thread that the Irish pub is great and that's why it has been exported around the world. It's more intimate than continental bars, it's got a better atmosphere than bars in other countries. It's so much better than other bars the people will commonly spend 4,6,7,8 hours in the pub on a session.

So comparing Irish pubs to a French pub, is silly for the obvious reasons. It suggests there should be a one size fits all approach to lockdown and ignore national or regional differences. That's the lengths people need to go to to make the "open the pubs" case.

If we're keeping essential businesses and schools open (which will cause transmissions), then we need to be extra careful with non-essential businesses which would also be good places to spread the virus - including pubs.

But you know all this yourself. Pretending not to understand these things is in important part of the "open the pubs" argument

PommieBast

Tenzor07 wrote: »

He's kept the pubs closed since last March even when the rest of Europe kept their pubs open all through the summer... why keep them closed when everywhere else had them open? Why the focus on keeping them closed where they didn't contribute to the case numbers last Summer?

After seeing his latests outburst over even more international travel restrictions I am convinced he has something like OCD. Already need a PCT test (yes the one that costs something like £120-180 a pop) to enter Ireland and he is already whingeing how the supposed gold standard of Covid tests (one that is sensitive enough to give false-positives months after infection is over) might theoretically let in a few infected people.

Tenzor07

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You cold answer that question if you wanted to. The Irish pub is different to other pubs. It's been mentioned loads of times in this thread that the Irish pub is great and that's why it has been exported around the world. It's more intimate than continental bars, it's got a better atmosphere than bars in other countries. It's so much better than other bars the people will commonly spend 4,6,7,8 hours in the pub on a session.So comparing Irish pubs to a French pub, is silly for the obvious reasons. It suggests there should be a one size fits all approach to lockdown and ignore national or regional differences. That's the lengths people need to go to to make the "open the pubs" case.
If we're keeping essential businesses and schools open (which will cause transmissions), then we need to be extra careful with non-essential businesses which would also be good places to spread the virus - including pubs. But you know all this yourself. Pretending not to understand these things is in important part of the "open the pubs" argument

Keeping a pub and a school open isn't mutually exclusive, across Europe people went for dinner and drinks or just drinks all the way into November whereas in Ireland the hospitality industry always seems to be the first to be shut down...and was closed down anytime an increase in cases occured, meanwhile you could still work with 100's of others in close quarters on a building site... No logic at all to the pub closures, a hygienic, safe and well managed place to go...

Russman

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Keeping a pub and a school open isn't mutually exclusive, across Europe people went for dinner and drinks or just drinks all the way into November whereas in Ireland the hospitality industry always seems to be the first to be shut down...and was closed down anytime an increase in cases occured, meanwhile you could still work with 100's of others in close quarters on a building site... No logic at all to the pub closures, a hygienic, safe and well managed place to go...

You can't honestly believe that surely ?

El_Duderino 09

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Keeping a pub and a school open isn't mutually exclusive, across Europe people went for dinner and drinks or just drinks all the way into November whereas in Ireland the hospitality industry always seems to be the first to be shut down...and was closed down anytime an increase in cases occured, meanwhile you could still work with 100's of others in close quarters on a building site... No logic at all to the pub closures, a hygienic, safe and well managed place to go...

If we're keeping essential businesses and schools open (which will cause transmissions, obviously), then we need to clamp down on transmissions in other areas. So they closed non-essential businesses, which would also be good places to spread the virus, including pubs. So pubs and hospitality are quick to close and slow to reopen. Keeping schools open allows lots of 9-5 working parents to go to work to keep the economy going.

But you know all this yourself. Pretending not to understand these things is in important part of the "open the pubs" argument

ShooterSF

opinionated3 wrote: »

It's amazing to think that it feels like only yesterday mental health was a huge priority issue in this country. Now that the authorities have "broken" people as the poster above put it, it's completely forgotten about. I'm certainly noticing changes in my mood, not to mention my friends and work colleagues. "Broken" is absolutely the appropriate word.

Mental health has only been a big thing recently because of societal pressures to make it so. It was never a priority for the government and with the rapidly changed landscape it is naive to think it can keep up. But it definitely is still an issue I just think people have to look to others for ideas on how to mind yourself during these times. I also think even in normal times mental health is an area we can all try and help one another in. I highly recommend cgp grey's Spaceship You video it really helped me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snAhsXyO3Ck

The tl;dr is try and use different spaces for different chores and be conscious of what you are doing. Even still I had to make adjustments as I live at home with my folks as I have gone back to college and don't have the room to do things in different spaces all the time. One trick I found really useful from my days doing split shifts in the pub was to change outfits to fit the moment (e.g I used to force myself to change out of my work clothes on my breaks), so I put on a shirt and jeans to sit at my pc during the day while "at college" and only change into my track bottoms and tee in the evening. I haven't moved location but it helps psychologically. Maybe we should be in a tips to help your mental health thread though and not one discussing pub re-openings

Tenzor07

Russman wrote: »

You can't honestly believe that surely ?

What makes the Virus in Ireland different to the rest of Europe who managed to keep their bars open?

Any bars I've been to in Ireland and Europe in 2020 (and there were a lot) also were all well managed, clean, temperature checks, social distancing, limited numbers...

Tenzor07

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

If we're keeping essential businesses and schools open (which will cause transmissions, obviously), then we need to clamp down on transmissions in other areas. So they closed non-essential businesses, which would also be good places to spread the virus, including pubs. So pubs and hospitality are quick to close and slow to reopen. Keeping schools open allows lots of 9-5 working parents to go to work to keep the economy going.

But you know all this yourself. Pretending not to understand these things is in important part of the "open the pubs" argument

Why do you keep going on about schools? The topic here is Pubs, nothing to do with each other...

PTH2009

'The virus loves alcohol' that's Dr Tony's answer. The smile on his face that night when the alcohol question was brought it

El_Duderino 09

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Why do you keep going on about schools? The topic here is Pubs, nothing to do with each other...

Yeah it's probably important to you to pretend they're not related. If you considered the whole issue then you'd likely conclude, as most people do, that closing the non-essential businesses like pubs and opening schools and essential businesses, is the right approach.

So you're right to argue the totally untrue point that they're unrelated.

Tazz T

PTH2009 wrote: »

'The virus loves alcohol' that's Dr Tony's answer. The smile on his face that night when the alcohol question was brought it

He got that wrong. The virus hates alcohol. That's why we use alcohol hand sanitiser.

El_Duderino 09

Tenzor07 wrote: »

What makes the Virus in Ireland different to the rest of Europe who managed to keep their bars open?

...

The virus isn't different, the people, culture and behaviour can be different from region to region and country to country. This is another thing you need to ignore to maintain your position. you quoted the following text, but you clearly didn't read it.

"You cold answer that question if you wanted to. The Irish pub is different to other pubs. It's been mentioned loads of times in this thread that the Irish pub is great and that's why it has been exported around the world. It's more intimate than continental bars, it's got a better atmosphere than bars in other countries. It's so much better than other bars the people will commonly spend 4,6,7,8 hours in the pub on a session. So comparing Irish pubs to a French pub, is silly for the obvious reasons. It suggests there should be a one size fits all approach to lockdown and ignore national or regional differences. That's the lengths people need to go to to make the "open the pubs" case."

IAMAMORON

Tenzor07 wrote: »

His job is to manage the committee who are dealing with the Health response to the Covid Crisis...
He's kept the pubs closed since last March even when the rest of Europe kept their pubs open all through the summer... why keep them closed when everywhere else had them open? Why the focus on keeping them closed where they didn't contribute to the case numbers last Summer?

He is just trying to do the tight thing.

Pubs are closed on mainland Europe and in the UK for months now also.

At the end of the day why take the risk? I get that pubs have taking a beating, possibly unfairly. But at the end of the day I doubt he is rubbing his hands over his advice to shut them down. As much as they have been used as a blame hound for outbreaks it cannot be refuted that they would not be an issue if allowed to stay open.

I miss them too.

hynesie08

Tazz T wrote: »

He got that wrong. The virus hates alcohol. That's why we use alcohol hand sanitiser.

Genius, let's open pubs and drink hand sanitizer....... What could go wrong....