Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

ImAHappyCamper

Why would Limerick start showing a fairly steady rise in cases folks?

ACitizenErased

ImAHappyCamper wrote: »

Why would Limerick start showing a fairly steady rise in cases folks?

Traveller funeral apparently

niallo27

ImAHappyCamper wrote: »

Why would Limerick start showing a fairly steady rise in cases folks?

They all headed back to Kilkee for the weekend.

Ineedaname

niallo27 wrote: »

Any truth in American hospitals getting a lot more money if they list a death as covid of if they put a patient on a ventilator.

When I read your post I thought it sounded crazy after looking into it turns out it's partly true. Doctors can claim reimbursement for treating Medicare patients and get considerably more if a patient ends up on a ventilator and dies.

That said though it's important to point out that there is no evidence of deliberate misreporting for financial gain. In fact many hospitals are losing money hand over fist.

niallo27

expectationlost wrote: »

you think they have ventilators to spare?

Thats not what I asked and yes I think you will find many states have plenty of spare ventilators.

eagle eye

Any news about n the primary and secondary schools? Are they still be going ahead with this stupid plan?

Strumms

normanoffside wrote: »

Varadkar himself said it

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1278995351169613824

Exactly, a corporate massage monkey.. a money boy... precisely the fûcking absolute wankbag clown whose slow out of the blocks fearful inaction meant that from word go we were fighting this from a back foot stance... fearful of stepping on the toes of the corporates, exactly a FG moneyboy type reaction.... you didn’t need to script it.

caveat emptor

normanoffside wrote: »

Varadkar himself said it

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1278995351169613824

Now why would a politician potentially point to something that may absolve him of consequences of his decisions. In particular nursing homes?
I wonder why.

caveat emptor

So Finland are doing testing at airports for people arriving from countries with greater than 10 per 100K infection rates.
Germany is doing similar?

Quiz question. When will paddy do it?
Oh yeah last.

ACitizenErased

eagle eye wrote: »

Any news about n the primary and secondary schools? Are they still be going ahead with this stupid plan?

Full steam ahead.
I was talking to a secondary vice-principal yesterday and the word he used to describe the schools starting is '****show'.

COVID-19 - Underlying conditions in confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland
Publication Date: 04/08/2020, Note: The data in this report are provisional Page 2 of 2
Data on underlying medical conditions were available for 1,459 confirmed cases who died;
 43.7% (n=637) had chronic heart disease
 34.1% (n=498) had chronic neurological disease
 17.6% (n=257) had chronic respiratory disease
 16.1% (n=235) had hypertension and
 15.4% (n=225) had cancer/malignancy.

so on the second one, 34.1%, the risk factor is age, meaning you are old and have any one of the following Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, dystonia, motor neuron disease Huntington’s disease, neuromuscular disease, multiple sclerosis and epilepsy,.

seanb85

ACitizenErased wrote: »

COVID deaths in Ireland = people who died with covid, not necessarily just of COVID.



https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/

Sadly 20-25% of nursing home patients die within any given year, many of the patients in these homes that did die during this period died with Covid but some would have died in any event. This explains why our excess mortality is less than the Covid death figure.

That doesn't mean they shouldn't be counted as Covid deaths and it doesn't mean our current Covid death toll is overestimated.

fritzelly

Did the loony bin give everyone a day pass today?

DevilsHaircut

normanoffside wrote: »

Varadkar himself said it

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1278995351169613824

The HIQA report on excess deaths that Varadkar was itching to publicise used RIP.ie postings.

A private-sector website with a very Christian-centric name is not a scientific basis for determining excess deaths.

We record deaths in the correct way, based on WHO guidance. Other countries may not (hence Leo's intervention regarding our position in the 'league tables').

Covid measures likely reduced deaths from other causes - road traffic accidents, sporting accidents, other infectious diseases, work-related stress, premature babies.

Hence a lower 'excess death' rate than the Covid death number.

ACitizenErased

seanb85 wrote: »

Sadly 20-25% of nursing home patients die within any given year, many of the patients in these homes that did die during this period died with Covid but some would have died in any event. This explains why our excess mortality is less than the Covid death figure.

That doesn't mean they shouldn't be counted as Covid deaths and it doesn't mean our current Covid death toll is overestimated.

But technically if they didn't die from COVID then they shouldn't really be counted as COVID deaths, in my opinion.

normanoffside

Strumms wrote: »

Exactly, a corporate massage monkey.. a money boy... precisely the fûcking absolute wankbag clown whose slow out of the blocks fearful inaction meant that from word go we were fighting this from a back foot stance... fearful of stepping on the toes of the corporates, exactly a FG moneyboy type reaction.... you didn’t need to script it.

caveat emptor wrote: »

Now why would a politician potentially point to something that may absolve him of consequences of his decisions. In particular nursing homes?
I wonder why.

Tony Holohan always stressed that we counted suspected covid deaths, people who died with and not from the virus etc.
If you read the replies to that tweet, loads of people Irate that their relatives were counted as Covid deaths when they weren't. Some even saying they died in a car crash but were counted as a Covid deaths.

Apparently when you go into Hospital with anything you are suspected as a covid patient, and if you die before being tested you were automatically added to the Covid death toll as a 'suspected' death.

Clearly we over-counted our deaths.

niallo27

Strumms wrote: »

Exactly, a corporate massage monkey.. a money boy... precisely the fûcking absolute wankbag clown whose slow out of the blocks fearful inaction meant that from word go we were fighting this from a back foot stance... fearful of stepping on the toes of the corporates, exactly a FG moneyboy type reaction.... you didn’t need to script it.

caveat emptor wrote: »

Now why would a politician potentially point to something that may absolve him of consequences of his decisions. In particular nursing homes?
I wonder why.

"HIQA says this could be due to the inclusion within official figures of people who were infected with coronavirus but whose cause of death may have been predominantly due to other factors"

How can you argue with this. Excess deaths were no where near the covid numbers. The numbers are there.

niallo27

seanb85 wrote: »

Sadly 20-25% of nursing home patients die within any given year, many of the patients in these homes that did die during this period died with Covid but some would have died in any event. This explains why our excess mortality is less than the Covid death figure.

That doesn't mean they shouldn't be counted as Covid deaths and it doesn't mean our current Covid death toll is overestimated.

So did they die of covid or not, I think its pretty important

Loafing Oaf

niallo27 wrote: »

So did they die of covid or not, I think its pretty important

Probably impossible to say definitively in a lot of cases. The 'excess deaths' count can only be a blunt instrument, even if it's the best measure we have.

JP Liz V1

ImAHappyCamper wrote: »

Why would Limerick start showing a fairly steady rise in cases folks?

niallo27 wrote: »

They all headed back to Kilkee for the weekend.

Kilkee Beach Rave Party, those young ones no cares at all

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

But technically if they didn't die from COVID then they shouldn't really be counted as COVID deaths, in my opinion.

The only way to determine this is through a costly and dangerous post-mortem for every single death, and even then the results would be debatable given the huge range of effects of the virus.

Utterly pointless.

We are right to continue following WHO guidance.

Doctors room ghost

Numbers going to skyrocket tomorrow and Wednesday I’d say.
It’s some fcukin disaster of a year.

Strumms

niallo27 wrote: »

"HIQA says this could be due to the inclusion within official figures of people who were infected with coronavirus but whose cause of death may have been predominantly due to other factors"

How can you argue with this. Excess deaths were no where near the covid numbers. The numbers are there.

‘MAY’ , you are crutching at straws.

caveat emptor

More Neurological effects . This time an autoimmune condition.

https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1292913402117931008?s=21

DevilsHaircut

normanoffside wrote: »

...
If you read the replies to that tweet, loads of people Irate that their relatives were counted as Covid deaths when they weren't. Some even saying they died in a car crash but were counted as a Covid deaths.

Clearly we over-counted our deaths.

Should we base it on tweets instead :rolleyes:

GooglePlus

rusty cole wrote: »

COVID-19 - Underlying conditions in confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland
Publication Date: 04/08/2020, Note: The data in this report are provisional Page 2 of 2
Data on underlying medical conditions were available for 1,459 confirmed cases who died;
 43.7% (n=637) had chronic heart disease
 34.1% (n=498) had chronic neurological disease
 17.6% (n=257) had chronic respiratory disease
 16.1% (n=235) had hypertension and
 15.4% (n=225) had cancer/malignancy.

so on the second one, 34.1%, the risk factor is age, meaning you are old and have any one of the following Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, dystonia, motor neuron disease Huntington’s disease, neuromuscular disease, multiple sclerosis and epilepsy,.

The risk factor for all of those ailments is age. Older age increases the risk for all of the above, so understandable that the likes of cardio disease is high too.

I wonder what the stats were for those under 50, can you get those anywhere?

seanb85

niallo27 wrote: »

So did they die of covid or not, I think its pretty important

You're asking a question with no definitive answer. A 90 year old with pre-existing conditions might not have much time left. If they caught Covid I don't see why it shouldn't be counted as a Covid death if it accelerated their demise.

ACitizenErased

Our reporting system for cases and deaths is a disaster anyway so it doesn't really matter what any of us would prefer.

Onesea

They lockedown Leicester due to high detection. A big panic follows,but no extra deaths or spikes in admission.
In Ireland you have 3 counties in a half baked lockdown of some sort.

How come the deaths are dropping to near zero yet when teating increases so does detection rates followed by media followed by panic.. It's like many here are stuck in a mouse wheel feeding on the nonsense from daily broadcasts from "journalists"

Patd6

We likely have 100 cases tops that died of corona. And all in the older susceptible age group. X amount that died in car crashs that were labelled corona. X amount that died of other illness but labelled corona. All to bulk up the figures and vindicate the lockdown. These meat factories clusters are not actually happening. It's media spin. Pubs should open right away, I'm furious

niallo27

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Probably impossible to say definitively in a lot of cases. The 'excess deaths' count can only be a blunt instrument, even if it's the best measure we have.

I understand its pretty blunt but the fact there is such a huge discrepancy in the numbers can't be ignored, if it was 50 or 100 then maybe but its 500 plus. This is good news though, why do people want this to be even more deadly, its bad enough as it is.

Ha Long Bay

Patd6 wrote: »

We likely have 100 cases tops that died of corona. And all in the older susceptible age group. X amount that died in car crashs that were labelled corona. X amount that died of other illness but labelled corona. All to bulk up the figures and vindicate the lockdown. These meat factories clusters are not actually happening. It's media spin. Pubs should open right away, I'm furious

Are you going to serve food when you open your fictional pub? If so you should have opened it back in June like the rest of them.

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Our reporting system for cases and deaths is a disaster anyway so it doesn't really matter what any of us would prefer.

Are you talking about the daily positives that you post here every day vs announced cases the day/s after?

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Are you talking about the daily positives that you post here every day vs announced cases the day/s after?

Deaths being reported weeks/months after they happened, cases being reported despite positive tests saying otherwise, etc.

ExMachina1000

The 7 day moving average of daily new cases in the United states is really starting to turn down.
Finally

seanb85

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Our reporting system for cases and deaths is a disaster anyway so it doesn't really matter what any of us would prefer.

You categorically stated our death toll was overestimated.

It might be, but the report you based that on was a very basic look at excess mortality with figures taken from a private website and was in no way a conclusive study.

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Deaths being reported weeks/months after they happened, cases being reported despite positive tests saying otherwise, etc.

(1) Deaths reported up to three months afterwards is down to our legislation (not the public health authorities).

(2) 'cases being reported despite positive tests saying otherwise'

JP Liz V1

Poorside wrote: »

couple of confirmed cases from lads living in Clare and playing for Cratloe GAA club that were at the Killkee thing last week, this could run rampant.

Toodles_27 wrote: »

7 new cases in Limerick today.

Any idea what is driving these new cases? Has there been a cluster/outbreak identified?

Poorside wrote: »

Confirmed case in Claughan GAA club, no idea if it's a player

Arthur Dead Gypsum wrote: »

Shannon RFC too. Both club activities suspended

Limerick and Clare cases could be from the Kilkee Party

Polar101

Polar101 wrote: »

Finland did a second full Covid-19 testing of incoming plane passengers. This time they targeted a flight that arrived in Turku from Skopje, North Macedonia. Unlike the previous test, this time all 157 passengers accepted to take the free test at the airport.

24 out of the 157 passengers tested positive
https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/paper_covid-19_cases_confirmed_among_passengers_from_skopje/11487038

So far Finland have been doing the Irish style "please, could you self isolate for 14 days?" pseudo-quarantine, but they are now considering changing that to "self isolate for 14 days, or else".

Those numbers strike me as rather unusual. Macedonia has had a similar enough number of cases and deaths as us, and although they are going through their peak now it’s still only 150 per day in a country of 2million. If you assume average 2 weeks from Infection to resolution, that’s about 2,000 active cases or current rate idled 1/1000. Yet 24 people out 157 tested positive on that flight. Unless there was a sports team or tour group it would be statistically very unlikely for 24 cases to make it on to that flight at the same time even if they are only detecting 10% of cases in the country.

DevilsHaircut

Patd6 wrote: »

We likely have 100 cases tops that died of corona...All to bulk up the figures and vindicate the lockdown. These meat factories clusters are not actually happening. It's media spin. Pubs should open right away, I'm furious

Pat does or does not own or work in a pub, depending on which posts of his you read.

But he's angry...

rusty cole

rusty cole wrote: »

Of 1772, Almost 50% of them had chronic hear disease! Guess how many die in Ireland of chronic heart disease 5000. there's tons of stats one can play with.
Bottom line How many are now in hospital and how many are in ICU today? that's what needs to be shown. showing median and mean ages for young offenders is just finger pointing. we we always told to flatten the curve and it's flat according to martin himself in his speech. So now we;re closing counties for single figure digits n hospitals? last I looked it went from 6 up to 14 and then back to 9.

What's it at present?

Any idea how many people live for multiple years with chronic heart disease?

Fr_Dougal

Patd6 wrote: »

We likely have 100 cases tops that died of corona. And all in the older susceptible age group. X amount that died in car crashs that were labelled corona. X amount that died of other illness but labelled corona. All to bulk up the figures and vindicate the lockdown. These meat factories clusters are not actually happening. It's media spin. Pubs should open right away, I'm furious

Looking forward to you backing up some of those wild claims.

niallo27

seanb85 wrote: »

You categorically stated our death toll was overestimated.

It might be, but the report you based that on was a very basic look at excess mortality with figures taken from a private website and was in no way a conclusive study.

Can you agree with the way deaths are reported there is a strong possibility that there have been cases of deaths that have been reported as covid when it wasn't the cause of death.

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

Varadkar himself said it

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1278995351169613824

Lockdown was a bigger success than we thought

Non solum non ambulabit

seanb85 wrote: »

You categorically stated our death toll was overestimated.

It might be, but the report you based that on was a very basic look at excess mortality with figures taken from a private website and was in no way a conclusive study.

By definition reporting suspected deaths with no positive test for Covid can only lead to over counting.

ACitizenErased

seanb85 wrote: »

You categorically stated our death toll was overestimated.

It might be, but the report you based that on was a very basic look at excess mortality with figures taken from a private website and was in no way a conclusive study.

I think I'm going to trust our health standards organisation

seanb85

niallo27 wrote: »

Can you agree with the way deaths are reported there is a strong possibility that there have been cases of deaths that have been reported as covid when it wasn't the cause of death.

Cause of death in elderly people is not always clear cut when a range of factors may be at play, it is very possible a number of Covid deaths would have occurred in any event. The disease being present however almost certainly accelerated the inevitable.

I'm worried this discussion has become quite callous though so I'll leave it there.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Those numbers strike me as rather unusual. Macedonia has had a similar enough number of cases and deaths as us, and although they are going through their peak now it’s still only 150 per day in a country of 2million. If you assume average 2 weeks from Infection to resolution, that’s about 2,000 active cases or current rate idled 1/1000. Yet 24 people out 157 tested positive on that flight. Unless there was a sports team or tour group it would be statistically very unlikely for 24 cases to make it on to that flight at the same time even if they are only detecting 10% of cases in the country.

You are assuming homogeneity in the sample size and the population.
You are also assuming they are testing everyone that has it and the rate reflects
the true prevalence in the population.
BERGAMO VS ITALY
Kildare vs Donegal for example.

Have we carried out any "random" PCR testing at airports or of the population in general and controlled for various factors?

I think this is really needed to get a grip on this before it gets out of control.

Beasty

Here endeth the 20th edition

No 21 here