Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

cnocbui

This will upset the easily upset:

The cost of lockdown on Britain's economy 'has not been worth the lives saved', study claims

Lockdown 'has not been worth the lives saved in economic terms', study says
NHS formula says damage is £70billion greater than value of years of life saved
A study urges the Government to ditch blanket lockdown policies

This is ignoring further losses caused by lower economic output in successive years, the disruption to education and vital non-Covid medical procedures being delayed. By contrast the 'value' of lives saved is a comparatively small £132billion, the study claims.

Even by the most conservative estimates, the study's authors argue, lockdown has cost at least £200billion

It calculates that 440,000 lives have been saved by lockdown and the average person who has died from Covid-19 would have lived for another ten years, according to life expectancies.

So lockdown saved 4.4million quality years of life – each valued at £30,000 by NHS guidelines – that the pandemic would otherwise have erased.

This means the value of the years of life saved is £132billion, according to the study.

But public sector debt is at nearly £2trillion, ballooning larger than the size of the economy in May for the first time in more than 50 years.

The authors will argue that although lockdown was effective in slowing the rate of infection and deaths from Covid-19, it is 'very far from clear' whether tight restrictions should have been kept in place until the end of June, given the economic cost.

The study will be published next Wednesday by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8555171/The-cost-lockdown-Britains-economy-not-worth-lives-saved-study-claims.html

What has the world come to when I agree with something Tony Blair says? This is the worst tragedy to come out of this pandemic - aaaarrrrggggghhhh!

Tony Blair warns that coronavirus cannot be eliminated and the UK must prepare for 'living with it'

What Username Guidelines

Had to bring kiddo to optician this morning in Dundrum, the centre was quiet enough, but I'd put mask usage at about 98%. Only saw one person without one, and one other using it as a chin strap. On the flip side of that positive, I do wonder how retailers and centres like it will survive medium to long term given the heavily decreased footfall.

Boggles

Sure if we euthanized all terminally sick children we would save a fortune too.

I'm going to start a blog.

eigrod

ICU cases now down to 5

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

the corpo

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Had to bring kiddo to optician this morning in Dundrum, the centre was quiet enough, but I'd put mask usage at about 98%. Only saw one person without one, and one other using it as a chin strap. On the flip side of that positive, I do wonder how retailers and centres like it will survive medium to long term given the heavily decreased footfall.

I've been in and out of Dundrum a few times this week, and in general have been really surprised how busy it's been, certainly a lot more than I was expecting.

And I'd agree on the mask usage, it's been brilliant to see the uptake there.

ACitizenErased

Reckon mask compliance is high almost everywhere now. Was in the local shop last night and everybody had one on.

schmoo2k

Dante7 wrote: »

The Chinese Army.

Is that true or humour?

darjeeling

Dante7 wrote: »

The Chinese Army.

I don't think that hundreds of thousands PLA members have already been given a vaccine.

No vaccine candidate has yet passed a phase 3 clinical trial, and so there is no approved vaccine anywhere.

The Chinese government has put CanSino's non-approved recombinant AD5 vaccine candidate on an emergency use list for the military, it was announced at the end of June (link).
However, I've not seen any information on the scale of any planned PLA inoculation program, or any reports that such a program has already begun.

The candidate vaccine passed phase 1 and 2 trials earlier this year, but has not begun a phase 3 trial, though negotiations are ongoing with countries with large active outbreaks (link).
This puts CanSino behind other Chinese, European and American vaccine candidates in the development race.

It has been speculated that the Chinese government is actually seeking to use its military to conduct a phase 3 trial of CanSino's vaccine candidate, though I'm sceptical of that because incidence is so low in China that it wouldn't be a good place to carry out such a trial right now.

fritzelly

Watching Euronews last night with an Irish doctor - premature births since March have all but disappeared, think he said just one

shinzon

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Reckon mask compliance is high almost everywhere now. Was in the local shop last night and everybody had one on.

Generally yes but then you get the 5g crowd or tin foil hat conspiracy theorists. Was in my local Lidl today and an auld lad noticed a fella at the check out not wearing a mask, he asked the security guard about it and asked was there fines for not wearing one, the security guard said its not the law yet probably will be next week wherein the lad who wasnt wearing a mask piped up to the auld lad and said "Those masks will cause you more issues then covid". The auld lad shut him down beautifully though he said "youd be better off doing what youve been told to ****ing do".

Shin

schmoo2k

fritzelly wrote: »

Watching Euronews last night with an Irish doctor - premature births since March have all but disappeared, think he said just one

...interesting - assuming there was no upswing with complications, it potentially shines a bad light on our obstetricians.

fritzelly

shinzon wrote: »

Generally yes but then you get the 5g crowd or tin foil hat conspiracy theorists. Was in my local Lidl today and an auld lad noticed a fella at the check out not wearing a mask, he asked the security guard about it and asked was there fines for not wearing one, the security guard said its not the law yet probably will be next week wherein the lad who wasnt wearing a mask piped up to the auld lad and said "Those masks will cause you more issues then covid". The auld lad shut him down beautifully though he said "youd be better off doing what youve been told to ****ing do".

Shin

Guess you had to be there

fritzelly

schmoo2k wrote: »

...interesting - assuming there was no upswing with complications, it potentially shines a bad light on our obstetricians.

The assumption was less stress and other way of life issues removed

podgeandrodge

Donnelly on news saying there will be a "second surge"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/coronavirus-donnelly-says-r-rate-has-fallen-but-warns-ireland-will-see-second-surge-1.4312682?mode=amp

Arghus

cnocbui wrote: »

At least 75%, based on this thread. And if you don't die you will have one or more limbs amputated.

Pointless.

stephenjmcd

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Donnelly on news saying there will be a "second surge"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/coronavirus-donnelly-says-r-rate-has-fallen-but-warns-ireland-will-see-second-surge-1.4312682?mode=amp

He's some clown.

For as much as I wasn't a big fan of Harris he was miles better than Donnelly

is_that_so

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Donnelly on news saying there will be a "second surge"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/coronavirus-donnelly-says-r-rate-has-fallen-but-warns-ireland-will-see-second-surge-1.4312682?mode=amp

Tony would not have let him get away with that language! Recurrence!:P

caveat emptor

I see the optimism bias out in force.

Yesterday health minister says R number is low.

||
\ /
'

"Hooray! Isn't that great"


Same guy in same exchange says there will be a "second surge"

||
\ /
'
"How dare they use such negative language.





https://www.researchworld.com/bias-in-the-spotlight-optimism-bias/

AdamD

Boggles wrote: »

Link?

Some people would be more accurate, correct?

If "most people" are educating themselves from a headline than that is a separate issue.

Either way what tangible difference does it make?

Look I would agree with you if we weren't 4 or 5 months into daily articles, at what point is it okay to just read the headline?

The articles are literally copy and paste at this point. Of course people will stop reading them. Discrepancies should be included in the headline.

cnocbui

darjeeling wrote: »

I don't think that hundreds of thousands PLA members have already been given a vaccine.

No vaccine candidate has yet passed a phase 3 clinical trial, and so there is no approved vaccine anywhere.

The Chinese government has put CanSino's non-approved recombinant AD5 vaccine candidate on an emergency use list for the military, it was announced at the end of June (link).
However, I've not seen any information on the scale of any planned PLA inoculation program, or any reports that such a program has already begun.

The candidate vaccine passed phase 1 and 2 trials earlier this year, but has not begun a phase 3 trial, though negotiations are ongoing with countries with large active outbreaks (link).
This puts CanSino behind other Chinese, European and American vaccine candidates in the development race.

It has been speculated that the Chinese government is actually seeking to use its military to conduct a phase 3 trial of CanSino's vaccine candidate, though I'm sceptical of that because incidence is so low in China that it wouldn't be a good place to carry out such a trial right now.

China approved the use of a vaccine for their military, skipping phase 3 trials.

China approves COVID-19 vaccine for military use, skips final phase of testing

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-vaccine-approved-military-use-china-1.5630947

To speed up the process, China allowed Sinopharm and Sinovac to combine Phase I and Phase II trials for their vaccine candidates.
...

China must also address concerns over its vaccine quality and safety issues following several here scandals here over substandard vaccines in recent years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine-anal-idUSKBN2481NO

That is so reassuring. I won't be granting any Chinese vaccine entry to my veins!

ChelseaRentBoy

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Donnelly on news saying there will be a "second surge"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/coronavirus-donnelly-says-r-rate-has-fallen-but-warns-ireland-will-see-second-surge-1.4312682?mode=amp

A lot still in denial over that fact. At least he's come out and told it like it is.

Boggles

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He's some clown.

For as much as I wasn't a big fan of Harris he was miles better than Donnelly

For speaking truthfully?

He said public health officials were saying, based on how the disease is working around the world that “we are going to have a second surge”.

“We’re hoping it will be low. We’re hoping it might be localised geographically but we have to be prepared within particular communities, particular counties, particular cities, for the prevalence rate to go up.”

cnocbui

If Australia couldn't avoid a second wave, there's absolutely no chance Ireland will.

Boggles

AdamD wrote: »

Look I would agree with you if we weren't 4 or 5 months into daily articles, at what point is it okay to just read the headline?

The articles are literally copy and paste at this point. Of course people will stop reading them. Discrepancies should be included in the headline.

There isn't one person I have talked to that thinks 9 people died in the past 24 hours.

No one on here either.

Level 42

They died months ago no one said they died yesterday

What Username Guidelines

cnocbui wrote: »

If Australia couldn't avoid a second wave, there's absolutely no chance Ireland will.

Interesting analysis here on latitude:
(The smaller black& white embedded chart is an old chart that tracked flu incidence over 4 or 5 seasons in different areas of the world)

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1286546120563400704?s=20


Disclaimer: I know it's not the flu nor am I comparing severity, but it is interesting that it may share similar seasonal patterns based on latitude

robbiezero

Boggles wrote: »

There isn't one person I have talked to that thinks 9 people died in the past 24 hours.

No one on here either.

Its poor communication. Simple as that, regardless if people figured it out in 5 minutes, 5 hours or 5 days.

Yes, its the fault of click bait media scum, but more care should be taken not to hand them the bullets, especially with a startling figure for the day like 9 deaths.

Hmmzis

Well, good news everyone, I guess:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159178v1

Also, if you care to look at the PDF, there are two nice sets of images showing the GGOs healing over time (Figure 1D).

D.Q

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He's some clown.

For as much as I wasn't a big fan of Harris he was miles better than Donnelly

Combination of bad choice of language and the usual Irish Times click bait.

"Surge" is way too dramatic a term, it's a term that has been thrown around since the start, and really hasn't happened. It conjures up images of Italy in March etc

In fairness he does say he hopes it will be localised, and hopes it will be small.

I think the message they're trying to get out is that even though the curve is technically now flattened, there will be rises and falls, hopefully localised.

Irish Times are actually a disgrace. Some good journalists, some good pieces, well written, but they can't help lowering themselves to deliberately provocative, clcikbait headlines.

FishOnABike

YellowBucket wrote: »

I’m just wondering why so they give a R0 number of between 0.7 and 1.4
Just seems a very wide band.

It's to do with how it us calculated and confidence levels, similar to a survey or marketing poll.

There is noise in all data and as the numbers reduce the noise is a greater proportion of the value, similar to how a smaller sample size can give less accurate data.

They can calculate with a certain degree of certainty (e.g. 98% certain) that R is between a lower and upper bound e.g. 0.7 and 1.4

Using different models they can calculate different ranges for R and combine to give a consensus range for R.