Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

ninebeanrows

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's the estimates for today, my formula with the added results from yesterday the number could be between 250-350 today,with about 35 cases in Dublin

:eek:

Any theory behind this or absolute pie in sky?

ACitizenErased

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's the estimates for today, my formula with the added results from yesterday the number could be between 250-350 today,with about 35 cases in Dublin

Can you share your formula?

seamus

owlbethere wrote: »

How long is testing results taking now? Did I read somewhere it's taking 48 hours for test results to come back?

Last Thursday the average was 0.9 days to get a test result. A small number of cases were taking more than 48 hours to come back, but the vast majority were turning around inside a day.

CalamariFritti

I don't understand what the obsession is with this thread is for this and that thread is for that.

I see it as a general guideline but obviously the debate overlaps here and there and threads always go off on small tangents and then they come back. No problem.

big syke

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's the estimates for today, my formula with the added results from yesterday the number could be between 250-350 today,with about 35 cases in Dublin

Similar enough to your prediction yesterday then ye? :rolleyes:

hmmm

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's the estimates for today, my formula with the added results from yesterday the number could be between 250-350 today,with about 35 cases in Dublin

The initial clusters have been identified and mass tested, so I wouldn't expect to see a spike.

If there are large numbers of community transmissions in the midlands as a consequence, I'd expect they won't be appearing in the results just yet.

What will be important will be the trend over the next week or 10 days - if it stabilises we might have got away with it, but if it keeps rising we will have a problem.

GooglePlus

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's the estimates for today, my formula with the added results from yesterday the number could be between 250-350 today,with about 35 cases in Dublin

I think we've seen the initial jump from the meat plants but they'll start to subside for now until gradually increasing again as this outbreak's effects on the community start to show.

I reckon we'll see those figure you're stating but not for another few weeks but who knows..

MerlinSouthDub

Latest test numbers are on the dashboard. Looks like total of 124 positive tests over last 2 days. 68 positives yesterday, so I guess 50 or so today.

wadacrack

Alof of anger now in the thread it seems. Maybe some did not expect a 2nd wave or that Covid would just go away. Its time to just accept that this is the new normal for now. Hopefully by the end of 2021 will be over the worst of it

Benimar

124 positives in last 48 hours.

68 yesterday would suggest 56 or less today.

However, saturdays numbers were 48 short, so who knows!

KrustyUCC

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Latest test numbers are on the dashboard. Looks like total of 124 positive tests over last 2 days. 68 positives yesterday, so I guess 50 or so today.

That would be most welcome

Think it may be higher with private testing added in though

What Username Guidelines

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Latest test numbers are on the dashboard. Looks like total of 124 positive tests over last 2 days. 68 positives yesterday, so I guess 50 or so today.

Was about to post same, good numbers.

caveat emptor wrote: »

Spain is easing off,
Belgium is coming down.

Also for those looking at Ireland and thinking we're more than half way to our peak, remember this is a log chart, so we're at ~17 when the peak was just shy of 200 cases per million.

GooglePlus

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That would be most welcome

Think it may be higher with private testing added in though

I wouldn't say it's welcome, we're over the initial test spike of the meat plants but cases are still on the up and it will probably only go one way.

Piehead

marno21 wrote: »

This lark of Ireland being on par with the UK or Germany is a one dimensional meaningless statistic yet again which provides fodder for unnecessary and unfounded fearmongering. We have an outbreak we are reasonably on top of but because the overall population of the country is small it looks worse. The Aberdeen outbreak would look bad in Ireland also but because the UK population is much bigger and the country is bigger as a whole it's not as much of an issue there.

Ireland is a small country. A comparatively small outbreak in Ireland drives up the national incident rate because the outbreak is a more substantial proportion of the population than bigger countries.

In late March, the US per capita statistics were not strikingly bad but we saw all the coffin burying images from New York, because the cluster was only a small proportion of the overall US population. Same story here.

We need an immediate national lockdown immediately. All primary, secondary Schools and colleges openings should be postpone to Jan 2021 at the EARLIEST.

ACitizenErased

LATEST TESTING UPDATE (48 hours)

Tests conducted last 48 hours: 7971
Tests conducted last 7 days: 28439
Additional positive tests: 124
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.7%

Weekly positivity rate has dropped for the first time in 7 days.

Non solum non ambulabit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE (48 hours)

Tests conducted last 48 hours: 7971
Tests conducted last 7 days: 28439
Additional positive tests: 124
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.7%

Positivity rate has dropped for the first time in 10 days.

Excellent numbers. We should be less than yesterday based on that.

caveat emptor

Why the **** has the room been closed?
Waiting for it to spread isn't clever.
You'd want to be mad to send your kid in in those circumstances.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/three-children-test-positive-for-covid-19-at-meath-creche-39437298.html

Three children test positive for Covid-19 at Meath creche

Three children have now tested positive for Covid-19 at a creche, bringing the total number of cases at the facility to five.

The children were confirmed to have the virus on Sunday night and further tests are now under way on other attendees.

It comes after two members of staff at the Daoine Oga Community Childcare Centre in Navan tested positive last week.

A third room at the creche has now been closed, and all parents of children in the remaining open units have been informed of the situation.

A total of 11 have been tested so far after the two adult cases were diagnosed. Eight results were returned negative.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/three-children-test-positive-for-covid-19-at-meath-creche-39437298.html

owlbethere

seamus wrote: »

Last Thursday the average was 0.9 days to get a test result. A small number of cases were taking more than 48 hours to come back, but the vast majority were turning around inside a day.

Results back within a day is good. The authorities need to continue that. The small number of cases taking more than 48 hours is not so good and they need to work on that.

I would have a worry and that is if there's an increase in people put forward for testing will the system get overwhelmed with result turnaround slowing down some what.

Non solum non ambulabit

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's the estimates for today, my formula with the added results from yesterday the number could be between 250-350 today,with about 35 cases in Dublin

Not likely now based on the 48hr positive test data. Looking at under 60 which is great news.

caveat emptor

owlbethere wrote: »

Results back within a day is good. The authorities need to continue that. The small number of cases taking more than 48 hours is not so good and they need to work on that.

I would have a worry and that is if there's an increase in people put forward for testing will the system get overwhelmed with result turnaround slowing down some what.

Yeah from the same article above the rapid test and trace is not so rapid.
Sure it'll be grand.

“Other parents on this call also mentioned they still hadn't been contacted either (by the HSE).

"Only on Sunday afternoon, did I receive a text from the HSE and a test was arranged for today.

"By the time Ned receives his results, almost seven days will have passed and he was in direct contact with one of the staff members who tested positive.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/three-children-test-positive-for-covid-19-at-meath-creche-39437298.html

drunkmonkey

caveat emptor wrote: »

Why the **** has the room been closed?
Waiting for it to spread isn't clever.
You'd want to be mad to send your kid in in those circumstances.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/three-children-test-positive-for-covid-19-at-meath-creche-39437298.html



https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/three-children-test-positive-for-covid-19-at-meath-creche-39437298.html

Creches are run on a bubble system, I've 2 kids in one in separate bubbles, if one bubble bursts the theory is the other bubbles will be fine. Now the lady who runs that creche's plan was adopted by a lot of other creche's.
In theory it's a good plan and seems to have worked but their may have been some cross bubble action going the staff haven't been truthfully about or the cleaner is spreading it from bubble to bubble. Or in our case the bubbles mix outside of creche.

Bubbaclaus

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Well if you can’t see some of the current restrictions in place are laughable to say the least I don’t know what to say.

Well you seem to find basic common sense of face masks on public transport and in shops to be laughable, so not sure I would value your opinion on what other restrictions you find laughable.

Oranage2

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Not likely now based on the 48hr positive test data. Looking at under 60 which is great news.

Cheers, great news if that happens, I was expecting carnage, but if the majority of those number are from the 3 counties then it's a massive win

drunkmonkey

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Well you seem to find basic common sense of face masks on public transport and in shops to be laughable, so not sure I would value your opinion on what other restrictions you find laughable.

Times article pretty much reflects that, enough of mask though,‘We can be fined how much?’ Shoppers mask up in Dublin city centre (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/we-can-be-fined-how-much-shoppers-mask-up-in-dublin-city-centre-1.4326609

timsey tiger

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Creches are run on a bus bubble system, I've 2 kids in one in separate bubbles, if one bubble bursts the theory is the other bubbles will be fine. Now the lady who runs that creche's plan was adopted by a lot of other creche's.
In theory it's a good plan and seems to have worked but their may have been some cross bubble action going the staff haven't been truthfully about or the cleaner is spreading it from bubble to bubble.

You've two kids in separate bubbles? Bubble system is lipstick on a pig.

drunkmonkey

timsey tiger wrote: »

You've two kids in separate bubbles? Bubble system is lipstick on a pig.

Yea it's nonsense. Only in bubbles part of the day.

Non solum non ambulabit

Oranage2 wrote: »

Cheers, great news if that happens, I was expecting carnage, but if the majority of those number are from the 3 counties then it's a massive win

Sure is. Heres hoping.

BagheeraBlue

pissing against the wind these measures, there is no stopping it getting around just sit and hope your not vulnerable to it

bb1234567

marno21 wrote: »

This lark of Ireland being on par with the UK or Germany is a one dimensional meaningless statistic yet again which provides fodder for unnecessary and unfounded fearmongering. We have an outbreak we are reasonably on top of but because the overall population of the country is small it looks worse. The Aberdeen outbreak would look bad in Ireland also but because the UK population is much bigger and the country is bigger as a whole it's not as much of an issue there.

Ireland is a small country. A comparatively small outbreak in Ireland drives up the national incident rate because the outbreak is a more substantial proportion of the population than bigger countries.

In late March, the US per capita statistics were not strikingly bad but we saw all the coffin burying images from New York, because the cluster was only a small proportion of the overall US population. Same story here.

At what population scale can the excuse that cases are inflated by population size remain valid? Can a country of 10 million also claim their case numbers only looked bad because of their population size, what is the cut off.It's hard to argue this because what is considered a small country is subjective. The metric is cases per capita, doesn't get any more representative than this, so the population size imapact this is pretty irrelevant for the most part, especially in a country like Ireland which has millions of residents and is not particularly small.

The numbers are what they are. I agree though that it is a cause of unnecessary fear mongering not because of that but because the cases have mostly been traced as far as we know. As long as community transmission remains limited then there is no need for most of us to be worrying.

Jim_Hodge

Oranage2 wrote: »

What's the estimates for today, my formula with the added results from yesterday the number could be between 250-350 today,with about 35 cases in Dublin

What formula is given such high numbers?