The UK response - Part II - read OP

theological

It's not an assumption. It actually happened probably more than once.

On travel I've been saying that for months.

Peregrinus

theological wrote: »

It's not an assumption. It actually happened probably more than once.

On travel I've been saying that for months.

Oh, I'm sure it does happen. The question is whether that is what is driving the current rise in infections, or whether other factors are more signficant.

S.M.B.

I believe they are attributing a large portion of the blame for what's happened in Bolton to someone going overseas, coming back and not self isolating for 14 days, instead going on a pub crawl with their mates, getting symptoms a few days later and then testing positive for the virus.

The reality is that a combination of policy, comms, public behaviour and effectiveness of track and trace that is having an effect on the rising levels.

4068ac1elhodqr

Interesting story circulating this morning (mainly in the tabloids) that Boris took a jolly/trip weekend to Italy recently:

Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported on the alleged trip last night, saying he was thought to have flown into Perugia on around September 10.
The airport put out a press release saying he had landed there in recent days, alongside others including ex-PM Tony Blair.
The paper cites a source saying he arrived “on Friday 11 September at 2pm and left on Monday 14 September 14th at 7.45am”.
Could be just a rumour, not ideal under the covidy-circumstances:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/21/where-perugia-italy-did-boris-johnson-secretly-visit-13301115/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8753857/Downing-Street-forced-deny-Italian-newspapers-claims-Boris-Johnson-enjoyed-jaunt-Perugia.html
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-spent-long-weekend-in-perugia-to-baptise-his-son-7m5t2g36t

Meanwhile a London council tells it's already soon to be locked down, and panicking residents 'not to forget their whistle':
https://twitter.com/wandbc/status/1307645934021554177
Another tweeter suggests having an old fashioned mechanical clock (perhaps as nuc fallout could render iWatches redundant).

robinph

S.M.B. wrote: »

I believe they are attributing a large portion of the blame for what's happened in Bolton to someone going overseas, coming back and not self isolating for 14 days, instead going on a pub crawl with their mates, getting symptoms a few days later and then testing positive for the virus.

The reality is that a combination of policy, comms, public behaviour and effectiveness of track and trace that is having an effect on the rising levels.

Undoubtedly whoever went out on a pub crawl rather than isolating caused problems, but they are not solely responsible for the whole city becoming infected. They may have infected a couple of their drunken mates in a couple of pubs, but everyone else could still have stopped the spread at that point if they were all practicing their social distancing after receiving a drunken hug from the covid pub crawler. Still needed the rest of Bolton to be acting like idiots for it to spread, not like that one person directly infected all of them. If you've been out on the beers and can't quite remember what you got up to then it's probably not a good idea to go visit granny the following week.

That one person is just unlucky to have been identified as having not isolated, but there will have been other idiots out in Bolton that week doing exactly the same idiotic things.

Enzokk

Interesting question and answer here,

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1308394044771512323?s=20

If I have it right, the UK isn't doing as well with Test and Trace as Germany and Italy not because those countries are locally run but because the UK people are freedom loving and you cannot expect them to follow the guidelines, but it is important that people follow the guidelines.

I am paraphrasing here.

S.M.B.

My wife went back to work yesterday after the past 8 months of maternity leave and I've been WFH for the same period.

The tube and overground is just full of people not wearing masks. It's so disappointing. If you look at the TFL twitter account these days, what used be an endless list of replies to angry tweets about disruption has been replaced with an endless list of replies to angry tweets about people not wearing masks.

Enzokk

Enzokk wrote: »

Interesting question and answer here,

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1308394044771512323?s=20

If I have it right, the UK isn't doing as well with Test and Trace as Germany and Italy not because those countries are locally run but because the UK people are freedom loving and you cannot expect them to follow the guidelines, but it is important that people follow the guidelines.

I am paraphrasing here.

Boris really does manage to come up with a complete load of Sh1te. It’s incredible really.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

If I have it right, the UK isn't doing as well with Test and Trace as Germany and Italy not because those countries are locally run but because the UK people are freedom loving and you cannot expect them to follow the guidelines, but it is important that people follow the guidelines.

Ah, yes. Italy is doing better than the UK because its people are so famously docile and rule-bound, as against the notoriously anarchist and unpredictable Englishmen, known throughout the world as the Children of the Wind.

political analyst

When I watched Newsnight on Monday this week, I heard 1922 Committee vice-chairperson Sir Charles Walker say continuation of draconian restrictions would reduce the Exchequer's income and thus deprive the NHS of money. Did that thought not occur to Boris when he made the threat of another national lockdown in England?

Distancing, mask-wearing and hand sanitising mean it would be possible to protect the vulnerable (including the elderly) while making an effort to achieve herd immunity in the rest of the population by permitting controlled spreading of the virus.

S.M.B.

political analyst wrote: »

Distancing, mask-wearing and hand sanitising mean it would be possible to protect the vulnerable (including the elderly) while making an effort to achieve herd immunity in the rest of the population by permitting controlled spreading of the virus.

He explicitly said that wasn't possible.

I thought it was odd that there wasn't a single mention of Track & Trace or testing while addressing the nation.

is_that_so

A BMJ summary of the state of testing in the UK.

Is it the increase in demand, “ineligible” applicants, or a lack of laboratory capacity hampering coronavirus testing? Jacqui Wise examines the key questions around the current lack of access to tests in the community

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3678

trixi001

theological wrote: »

I question this logic for one reason. Namely that the UK infection level was the lowest it had ever been in the middle of August during the eased restrictions.

The question then becomes what happened between then and now? People were still going to the pub but people were behaving responsibly it seems at least based on the data.

A lot of the recent level of infection has come from 20 - 30s demographic meeting in large gatherings and overseas travel.

I guess it is possible that pubs can be a source of infection after people come back from a large gathering or overseas travel with asymptomatic coronavirus. Or I guess if pubs are disregarding the guidance.

Or maybe - schools went back
As you says pubs and restaurants have been open since July, figures spiked in September, the schools are now back - and the 20 - 30's infected are parents too!
People have also been encouraged back to work.

Stop blaming it on increased socialising - which in England has been happening for most of the summer!

theological

trixi001 wrote: »

Or maybe - schools went back
As you says pubs and restaurants have been open since July, figures spiked in September, the schools are now back - and the 20 - 30's infected are parents too!
People have also been encouraged back to work.

Stop blaming it on increased socialising - which in England has been happening for most of the summer!

The figures show that most of the infections are in the 20 - 30 demographic. That's why I'm saying that. It is similar in Ireland.

The reality is that most of the new infections are not from school environments. Feel free to disprove this with data.

trixi001

theological wrote: »

The figures show that most of the infections are in the 20 - 30 demographic. That's why I'm saying that. It is similar in Ireland.

The reality is that most of the new infections are not from school environments. Feel free to disprove this with data.

The age group being infected are the ages of people that are parents too,kids are taking it home from school, parents are going to work ,to see siblings etc, and yes possibly socialising,but that doesn't mean the spike in caused by socialising.

The pubs and restaurants have been opened for months and there has been no spike, the spike has corresponded with schools opening, both in Ireland and the uk

Not saying the schools should close but neither should pubs and restaurants

GT89

This video sums up the truth about BoJo. He's no Winston Churchill

https://youtu.be/NyCfKiQVO9c

CelticRambler

theological wrote: »

The figures show that most of the infections are in the 20 - 30 demographic. That's why I'm saying that. It is similar in Ireland.

The reality is that most of the new infections are not from school environments. Feel free to disprove this with data.

There's an awful lot of unverified data swilling around, some of which indicates that children (especially teenage) are spreading it to teachers and parents.

But that's by-the-by. The 20-30 age group happens to be the one that's least likely to be able to work from home. In my circle, everyone I know who's working from home, with the exception of my own son, is in their 40s and well able to shelter themselves from contagion. On the other hand, everyone in their 20s and 30s who still has a job (about 60% of them don't any more) is working in a role that requires them to get to work, and to interact with other people while they're working.

The one group that I can be 100% certain did not catch or spread the virus was the 20-somethings who travelled abroad and safely socialised in a virus-free environment. If any of them are going to get infected in the near future, it will not be because of their socialising or their foreign travel: it'll be because they were required to show up at an office somewhere to prove their existence.

S.M.B.

is_that_so wrote: »

A BMJ summary of the state of testing in the UK.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3678

"The government chose to centralise the system, working with private companies and universities, rather than existing NHS laboratories. Wilson believes this was a mistake. “The Lighthouse lab model isn’t sustainable in the long term, and we need an exit strategy,” he says."

Still refusing to move away from the centralised and privatised system.

GT89

GT89 wrote: »

This video sums up the truth about BoJo. He's no Winston Churchill

https://youtu.be/NyCfKiQVO9c

I thought the video (I couldn’t cope with all of it) was as big a load of Sh1te as Boris himself.

But that’s just me

beggars_bush

S.M.B. wrote: »

"The government chose to centralise the system, working with private companies and universities, rather than existing NHS laboratories. Wilson believes this was a mistake. “The Lighthouse lab model isn’t sustainable in the long term, and we need an exit strategy,” he says."

Still refusing to move away from the centralised and privatised system.

Lots of Tory donors making a lot of money no doubt

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought the video (I couldn’t cope with all of it) was as big a load of Sh1te as Boris himself.

But that’s just me

Same for me, I got 2 minutes in a chucked it

GT89

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought the video (I couldn’t cope with all of it) was as big a load of Sh1te as Boris himself.

But that’s just me

How's it sh1te the man speaks bare facts

robinph

trixi001 wrote: »

The pubs and restaurants have been opened for months and there has been no spike, the spike has corresponded with schools opening, both in Ireland and the uk

The increase in cases was happening at the same time as the schools reopened, so can't have been due to the schools. There was no time for it to have happened. Maybe the further increase in cases is happening via schools, but it was turning before they went back.

But as schools are now back more people are back in their offices as well because they can. Whilst a school might cause a local outbreak, it is the people working in offices who then spread it to more far flung areas.

GT89

GT89 wrote: »

How's it sh1te the man speaks bare facts

It’s a foul mouthed monotonous rant with nothing to endear it to me, basically

Zubeneschamali

Is the new NHS Covid app based on the Irish one? I took a look at their website and can't make out.

I know the NI and Scottish apps are.

theological

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Is the new NHS Covid app based on the Irish one? I took a look at their website and can't make out.

I know the NI and Scottish apps are.

It's based on the Google / Apple algorithm but the source code is on the NHSX GitHub so probably not.

The source code for the apps and the Java backend is there.

S.M.B.

The app has finally been released today! Huzzah!

S.M.B.

S.M.B. wrote: »

"The government chose to centralise the system, working with private companies and universities, rather than existing NHS laboratories. Wilson believes this was a mistake. “The Lighthouse lab model isn’t sustainable in the long term, and we need an exit strategy,” he says."

Still refusing to move away from the centralised and privatised system.

Isn't Pillar one testing carried out in NHS labs? My understanding was that NHS labs are being used as much as possible, but capacity being left for other medical tests?

They still have a day job to do after all.

Joe_ Public

Aegir wrote: »

Isn't Pillar one testing carried out in NHS labs? My understanding was that NHS labs are being used as much as possible, but capacity being left for other medical tests?

They still have a day job to do after all.

There is no issue i have read about with NHS labs. The problem is with the lighthouse labs being unable to cope with community testing so 1000s of samples are being sent abroad and turnaround targets are not being met. I dont believe nhs labs can deal with the community testing because it is not the same procedure and uses different kit. One system is designed and initiated by experienced and dedicated experts, the other is manned by Deloitte.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There is no issue i have read about with NHS labs. The problem is with the lighthouse labs being unable to cope with community testing so 1000s of samples are being sent abroad and turnaround targets are not being met. I dont believe nhs labs can deal with the community testing because it is not the same procedure and uses different kit. One system is designed and initiated by experienced and dedicated experts, the other is manned by Deloitte.

nothing is manned by Deloitte and it has nothing to do with capability, it is about capacity.

Lighthouse is a consortium of various labs from different backgrounds. the consortium was put together as part of a project in April, which Deloitte managed. https://www.lighthouselabs.org.uk/