The UK response - Part II - read OP

robinph

bob mcbob wrote: »

Scotland introduced a partial lockdown on the 9th Oct for the whole of the central belt (3.4 million people). This lockdown is all pubs and restaurants shut. Cafes are allowed to open until 6. No household mixing indoors. This is the Scottish Tier 3.

The 7 days average number of infections peaked at 1450 on the 26th Oct it is currently down at 1187.

But looks like London may be a few days behind in the cases levelling off in a similar way, and I've got my finger crossed that the South West will follow shortly too. Numbers are certainly not still increasing at the same rate as a couple of weeks ago.

The lockdowns now being implemented are not significantly enough different to what we've been doing for the last 8 months to make a difference to cases. Doesn't seem to be any evidence behind what is being done and no proof that shutting pubs and asking people to promise not to visit other people's houses is the reason for any drop in cases.

Is it just burning itself out among the population who are not able to distance themselves from each others and it really doesn't make a whole lot of difference if the pub is shut down or not.

bob mcbob

robinph wrote: »

But looks like London may be a few days behind in the cases levelling off in a similar way, and I've got my finger crossed that the South West will follow shortly too. Numbers are certainly not still increasing at the same rate as a couple of weeks ago.

The lockdowns now being implemented are not significantly enough different to what we've been doing for the last 8 months to make a difference to cases. Doesn't seem to be any evidence behind what is being done and no proof that shutting pubs and asking people to promise not to visit other people's houses is the reason for any drop in cases.

Is it just burning itself out among the population who are not able to distance themselves from each others and it really doesn't make a whole lot of difference if the pub is shut down or not.

Ok can you give me a source on London cases levelling off?

lainey_d_123

robinph wrote: »

Something had to be done, but can't see what the pretend lockdown will achieve. It will ruin all leasure and retail industry businesses and jobs, but other that that not a whole lot will be different next week from what is happening this week. People will still be going to other jobs, schools and colleges will still be open, university students will be stuck in halls.

What is this change meant to achieve? Other than university students not being tested now because they have already been done so that will make the numbers come down due to them not being tested, none of the things they are shutting down are actually responsible for much of the raise in cases.

The lockdowns happening across Europe is just because they are out of ideas and screwed up doing what they needed with tracing during the summer.

I have to agree with you, even though I usually haven't before.

The whole thing is just pathetic now. A 'lockdown' where people can still go to work and schools and colleges are open is not a lockdown. You either go all out, or you don't do it and once again they're taking this wishy washy approach.

The time for lockdowns is long past. At this point it's a question of learning to live with it and keep going, like they've done in most of Asia. It's not feasible to shut everything down and put people out of work. The repercussions of that will be much worse than excess Covid deaths.

Countries like Japan and Korea have shown that behaviour is key here, as well as a proper tracing system. Shutting everything down over and over again isn't the answer. I feel so sorry for those working in hospitality who have done everything asked of them, spent money on making the place 'covid safe' and have now been battered by a silly 10pm curfew and now total closure for at least a month.

I was hopeful at the beginning of the pandemic that after the initial panic, things would quickly go back to something like normal, and the economy would pick up quickly but the gov have made an absolute pigs ear out of everything. It literally couldn't be worse.

igCorcaigh

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I have to agree with you, even though I usually haven't before.

The whole thing is just pathetic now. A 'lockdown' where people can still go to work and schools and colleges are open is not a lockdown. You either go all out, or you don't do it and once again they're taking this wishy washy approach.

It seems to be working here.

I think the big spike in cases is due to people socialising in pubs, restaurants and in each others homes.

Cut that out, cases fall.

S.M.B.

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I have to agree with you, even though I usually haven't before.

The whole thing is just pathetic now. A 'lockdown' where people can still go to work and schools and colleges are open is not a lockdown. You either go all out, or you don't do it and once again they're taking this wishy washy approach.

The time for lockdowns is long past. At this point it's a question of learning to live with it and keep going, like they've done in most of Asia. It's not feasible to shut everything down and put people out of work. The repercussions of that will be much worse than excess Covid deaths.

Countries like Japan and Korea have shown that behaviour is key here, as well as a proper tracing system. Shutting everything down over and over again isn't the answer. I feel so sorry for those working in hospitality who have done everything asked of them, spent money on making the place 'covid safe' and have now been battered by a silly 10pm curfew and now total closure for at least a month.

I was hopeful at the beginning of the pandemic that after the initial panic, things would quickly go back to something like normal, and the economy would pick up quickly but the gov have made an absolute pigs ear out of everything. It literally couldn't be worse.

For months it's been said that countries had the summer to get their house in order to avoid continuous lockdown cycles but so many have missed the opportunity.

I think this round of restrictions is going to be pretty devastating for some but it's the price to pay for lack of action earlier in the year.

There still doesn't seem to be much of an exit strategy for the UK.

robinph

bob mcbob wrote: »

Ok can you give me a source on London cases levelling off?

These charts for one, but shows similar from the Government dashboard page except you have to individually select each region:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/your-contribution?utm_source=App#London

Ignore NI as the data is too noisy. Scotland is showing the most distinct drop in cases, pretty much every other region is showing a slowing down or levelling off of the cases except for Wales which had had restrictions for the last couple of weeks and several weeks before that in their highest incident counties.

If the current types of lockdown, which are barely any different to what we've been doing since June, are having any effect then why are numbers slowing in the non locked down areas?

S.M.B.

That London graph appears to show consistent little dips followed by steep inclines but the bigger trend since the start of September seems to be only going one direction.

S.M.B.

S.M.B. wrote: »

For months it's been said that countries had the summer to get their house in order to avoid continuous lockdown cycles but so many have missed the opportunity.

I think this round of restrictions is going to be pretty devastating for some but it's the price to pay for lack of action earlier in the year.

There still doesn't seem to be much of an exit strategy for the UK.

I don’t think there was ever the possibility of avoiding lockdown cycles, it was always going to happen to some degree.

People keep talking about an exit strategy, but what are they looking for, no one has a magic wand.

partyguinness

I wrote here right at the beginning and even to friends back in Ireland back in May/June. The UK response (or perhaps the response in England) has always been half arsed.

There were so many exemptions etc that personally I was able to carry on as normal.

The Gov really does not have the appetite for a short sharp lockdown. It is almost as if they see the effective measures in Asia for example but being stubborn gits just will not do it. I suppose you could see it as an extension of good old fashioned British Exceptionalism. What makes it worse it that unlike Frane or Germany, Britain is an island so it should have been able to manage it better.

As usual you have a gaggle of back seat drivers within the Tories (Ian Duncan Smith, Graham Brady etc) who just focus on the economics but offer no solutions to the spiralling Covid rates.

nacho libre

Aegir wrote: »

I don’t think there was ever the possibility of avoiding lockdown cycles, it was always going to happen to some degree.

.

Maybe the current UK Government felt they were too good to learn anything from Asian countries who have avoided harsh lockdown cycles.
The hypocrisy of some Tories during this crisis is striking- they are very keen on personal responsibility, resolve/ doing your bit for the nation when it does not inconvenience them, but now its affecting them they are less keen on doing so.

Del Griffith

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930814/Weekly_report_mortality_W44.pdf

All-cause mortality at completely normal levels in the UK last week. C19 cases growing but still represent less than 5% of ICU occupancy nationally and growing at an ever declining rate.

PommieBast

nacho libre wrote: »

Maybe the current UK Government felt they were too good to learn anything from Asian countries who have avoided harsh lockdown cycles.

The rampant corruption doesn't help either. At the moment there are questions in the Lords as to why the (proposed?) appointee to the vaccine board is the wife of a minister who has conflicts of interest.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

Maybe the current UK Government felt they were too good to learn anything from Asian countries who have avoided harsh lockdown cycles.

and the Spanish Government, French Government, Italian, Irish, Dutch, Czech.....................

robinph

Aegir wrote: »

and the Spanish Government, French Government, Italian, Irish, Dutch, Czech.....................

It's all down to British Exceptionalism, keep up.

robinph

robinph wrote: »

It's all down to British Exceptionalism, keep up.

dammit

something something Dominic Cummings is that better?

partyguinness

A fundamental difference between Britain and Europe is that Britain is an island as opposed to mainland Europe with open borders.

In other words as an island nation it should have been able to control the spread easier like Australia, NZ and Taiwan have managed.

S.M.B.

When I said many countries missed out on an opportunity this summer to reduce the need for lockdown cycles they were inevitable.

When someone else says that the UK missed out on an opportunity this summer to reduce the need for lockdown cycles all of a sudden it's so did 'the Spanish Government, French Government, Italian, Irish, Dutch, Czech'.

This thread continues to really be bettered labelled as the 'Attack/Defend the UK response' thread which is a shame.

Maybe it's just incredibly difficult to discuss a government response to COVID without the added weight of political allegiances and general sense of identity. It's possible I'm as guilty as anyone. Or it's possible that living in a country where I have little political allegiance and the country itself is less entwined with my sense of identity means that I have a valid perspective. Who knows?

Joe_ Public

S.M.B. wrote: »

When I said many countries missed out on an opportunity this summer to reduce the need for lockdown cycles they were inevitable.

When someone else says that the UK missed out on an opportunity this summer to reduce the need for lockdown cycles all of a sudden it's so did 'the Spanish Government, French Government, Italian, Irish, Dutch, Czech'.

This thread continues to really be bettered labelled as the 'Attack/Defend the UK response' thread which is a shame.

Maybe it's just incredibly difficult to discuss a government response to COVID without the added weight of political allegiances and general sense of identity. It's possible I'm as guilty as anyone. Or it's possible that living in a country where I have little political allegiance and the country itself is less entwined with my sense of identity means that I have a valid perspective. Who knows?

Fwiw i agree with the thrust of your argument. There is a marked reluctance this side of the globe to take lessons off countries in the east for reasons that are fairly obvious. It's very regrettable and not just specific to uk. I also recall a few hysterical pronouncements about the carnage that would ensue once the virus those poverty stricken countries in africa, blithely ignoring the fact these places have been dealing with deadly infectious diseases for years, even decades, and have a fair idea how best to cope, even with modest resources.

partyguinness

partyguinness wrote: »

A fundamental difference between Britain and Europe is that Britain is an island as opposed to mainland Europe with open borders.

In other words as an island nation it should have been able to control the spread easier like Australia, NZ and Taiwan have managed.

If they’d have closed the borders and prevented all travel then maybe. It would have destroyed the economy though and with the infection rates in countries that were originally considered to have lower rates rising at an alarming rate of knots, it would have been delaying the inevitable

robinph

Closing the borders would have been tricky as I think by the time that could have been argued as being a sensible course of action it was too far along for the UK. No idea, but how did Malta/ Cyprus/ etc get on and what action did they take that was significantly different to the rest of Europe?

The UK screwed up and could have done a lot better by making use of their geography, but likewise Ireland has the same geographical benefits but is also suffering with a similar rise in cases as the rest of the continent. That isn't whataboutary, its why-is-everywhere-in-Euope-being-hit-the-same-ary? There is more to it than just lockdown more and test more and be less British to being successful in dealing with Covid19.

Everyone has screwed up except a very small number of countries.

meeeeh

Uk is not the worst at their response and there are countries who did worse this time however they must be the most entertaining. Maybe with exception of Spain. Never mind our leakers, it is funny when prime minister has to work around Strictly hastily announcing restrictions after they were leaked to Times.

nacho libre

Aegir wrote: »

and the Spanish Government, French Government, Italian, Irish, Dutch, Czech.....................

What thread is this?
At least your consistent with your deflection, Aegir;)

theological

nacho libre wrote: »

What thread is this?
At least your consistent with your deflection, Aegir;)

It isn't deflection. It's about consistency.

Right across Europe this has been handled badly. The question is what went wrong. I think travel has a lot to do with it personally.

BonnieSituation

theological wrote: »

It isn't deflection. It's about consistency.

Right across Europe this has been handled badly. The question is what went wrong. I think travel has a lot to do with it personally.

But this thread is dedicated to the UK's response. I guess we may as well repeat that again...

There are threads on Sweden's response as well, I don't see Aegir and the rest of the Tory apologists hopping in there asking "whaddaboutCZECHIA...". As you say, it's all about consistency right?

theological

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But this thread is dedicated to the UK's response. I guess we may as well repeat that again...

There are threads on Sweden's response as well, I don't see Aegir and the rest of the Tory apologists hopping in there asking "whaddaboutCZECHIA...". As you say, it's all about consistency right?

Sure, admittedly the primary reason why I don't post in the thread about Sweden is firstly because I don't know enough, and secondly I don't live in Sweden.

That still doesn't mean that it is wrong to point out that what is happening in the UK at the moment is pretty typical to what is happening in other countries in Europe at the moment.

RobMc59

theological wrote: »

Sure, admittedly the primary reason why I don't post in the thread about Sweden is firstly because I don't know enough, and secondly I don't live in Sweden.

That still doesn't mean that it is wrong to point out that what is happening in the UK at the moment is pretty typical to what is happening in other countries in Europe at the moment.

The majority of Irish people who post here usually post on the myriad of anti UK/echo chamber threads on boards so it`s to be expected they will trot out the usual same old chestnuts.The worst of them live and work in the UK and don`t have a good word to say about the place.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But this thread is dedicated to the UK's response. I guess we may as well repeat that again...

There are threads on Sweden's response as well, I don't see Aegir and the rest of the Tory apologists hopping in there asking "whaddaboutCZECHIA...". As you say, it's all about consistency right?

I don’t post on the Sweden thread as I neither live there or am from there. Therefore I know very little about the place and posting and criticising about things I know nothing about and don’t affect me would be pointless.

ancapailldorcha

Thank goodness these cretins have no more pull over the Tory party:

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1323356602112581633

nacho libre

theological wrote: »

It isn't deflection. It's about consistency.

Right across Europe this has been handled badly. The question is what went wrong. I think travel has a lot to do with it personally.

The poster in question has a phobia about criticising the current UK Government's response to this pandemic, he has consistently pointed to other countries to deflect any criticism of the UK Government. The idea that anyone criticising the UK response must have an agenda is just a childish ruse to deflect valid criticism of its response.
I agree with you about travel, but then the airline industry has powerful influence, so they would not have allowed it to happen.
If a blanket had been implemented on non essential travel for months, it may have caused civil strife too
So overall the cost of doing so was seen as too great.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

The poster in question has a phobia about criticising the current UK Government's response to this pandemic, he has consistently pointed to other countries to deflect any criticism of the UK Government. The idea that anyone criticising the UK response must have an agenda is just a childish ruse to deflect valid criticism of its response.
I agree with you about travel, but then the airline industry has powerful influence, so they would not have allowed it to happen.
If a blanket had been implemented on non essential travel for months, it may have caused civil strife too
So overall the cost of doing so was seen as too great.

Some posters just have a phobia of the British government and are all over several threads spewing hatred, yet ignore the incompetence in their own country.

It does make one question people’s agenda.