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The UK response - Part II - read OP
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There are a few underlying ideological issues dictating the Tory response.
1. The Tories really do not want to 'lockdown' or impose restrictions. They regard themselves as free market freewheeling libertarians. More than happy to let nature run its course. In fact it is seen as an opportunity to clear out some dead wood.
2. Boris Johnson is lazy as he is shamefully opportunistic. He is fine playing the happy clappy English chap with the funny quips but when it comes to hard decisions he does not like it. He wants to be Mr Nice Guy and Mr Popular with everyone. Distracts from his laziness and sheer lack of depth or substance.
3. Complete shortage of competent politicians with genuine ability. Most of the cabinet is full of BJ’s buddies who will tow the line.
4. The response as I said yesterday has been completely half arsed due to combination of the above.
As Michael O’Leary said on BBC4 radio yesterday, they need to test 5m a week not 500k. It is a country of close to 70m people. 500k is nothing. There are 6m people alone in a 30-mile radius of where I am sitting and I am nowhere near London.0 -
Some posters just have a phobia of the British government and are all over several threads spewing hatred, yet ignore the incompetence in their own country.
It does make one question people’s agenda.
I have no agenda.
I have criticised the Irish government in other covid threads. I have not seen you once criticise the UK Government in a thread dedicated to discussing their response to this pandemic, but do keep pointing at others to deflect from your own unwillingness to criticise the British Government for their failures.0 -
partyguinness wrote: »There are a few underlying ideological issues dictating the Tory response.
1. The Tories really do not want to 'lockdown' or impose restrictions. They regard themselves as free market freewheeling libertarians. More than happy to let nature run its course. In fact it is seen as an opportunity to clear out some dead wood.
2. Boris Johnson is lazy as he is shamefully opportunistic. He is fine playing the happy clappy English chap with the funny quips but when it comes to hard decisions he does not like it. He wants to be Mr Nice Guy and Mr Popular with everyone. Distracts from his laziness and sheer lack of depth or substance.
3. Complete shortage of competent politicians with genuine ability. Most of the cabinet is full of BJ’s buddies who will tow the line.
4. The response as I said yesterday has been completely half arsed due to combination of the above.
As Michael O’Leary said on BBC4 radio yesterday, they need to test 5m a week not 500k. It is a country of close to 70m people. 500k is nothing. There are 6m people alone in a 30-mile radius of where I am sitting and I am nowhere near London.
There is a lot of truth to what you say, but your last paragraph is indicative in itself of the challenge the British faced. The U.K. is highly densely populated and, whatever about ideology, it would have been an incredibly tough task to contain the virus — particularly in a country where the measures that would have been needed are highly unprecedented. Would Jeremy Corbyn really have done a significantly better job? Would a left-wing ideology have spurred Labour to adopt full military measures, and would people have complied?
I have many times written on the Brexit threads criticising the British government — and I have no reservations in saying that Boris Johnson really should not be where he is today. But I do think there has been a little bit of a sneering attitude in Ireland towards the struggles of the Brits and, furthermore, a determined drive to make this all a Left vs Right question — where Tory right-leaning ideology is to blame for something which a left leaning government might equally have struggled to deal with.0 -
Interestingly the UK R is at 1.0 today even before the lockdown begins according to the KCL Zoe data.
Are the measures we had before beginning to work? Of course if the country locks down completely for a month it'll decrease even further.0 -
Johnson is not ideological Tory, he likes to spend money and his government programme was a spending spree with loads of goodies for North. He is a populist and a libertarian. The lockdown is everything he hates but for different reasons than the right wing Tories who see everything through fiscal arithmetic. Corbyn is gone and irrelevant but I think it's likely a more responsible politician who is prepared to look into detail would do better.ArthurDayne wrote: »I have many times written on the Brexit threads criticising the British government — and I have no reservations in saying that Boris Johnson really should not be where he is today. But I do think there has been a little bit of a sneering attitude in Ireland towards the struggles of the Brits and, furthermore, a determined drive to make this all a Left vs Right question — where Tory right-leaning ideology is to blame for something which a left leaning government might equally have struggled to deal with.
The Times had a very good article on Tory reaction yesterday.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-scramble-for-lockdown-left-tory-mps-in-turmoil-fwn7769pv
Two quotes from the article:
On the back benches the atmosphere was sulphurous. Some Tory MPs suggested the prime minister should go. “He’s on borrowed time, totally inept,” said one. While nobody realistically expects a prime minister with a majority of 80 to go, it is a measure of the discontent. “I think it could be his Suez,” said a former cabinet minister under Cameron and May. This parallel with the 1950s conflict that led to Anthony Eden’s resignation was cited by many.
Serving ministers, even one-time allies, were shocked too. “He’s been overrun by the virus and by his ‘advisers’,” one minister said. “They are nasty, they misunderstand the parliamentary party, and above all are totally, totally ****. Over the last week — with the row over free school meals and this — I think we’ve lost the next election.”0 -
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Johnson is not ideological Tory, he likes to spend money and his government programme was a spending spree with loads of goodies for North. He is a populist and a libertarian. The lockdown is everything he hates but for different reasons than the right wing Tories who see everything through fiscal arithmetic. Corbyn is gone and irrelevant but I think it's likely a more responsible politician who is prepared to look into detail would do better.
The Times had a very good article on Tory reaction yesterday.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-scramble-for-lockdown-left-tory-mps-in-turmoil-fwn7769pv
Two quotes from the article:
On the back benches the atmosphere was sulphurous. Some Tory MPs suggested the prime minister should go. “He’s on borrowed time, totally inept,” said one. While nobody realistically expects a prime minister with a majority of 80 to go, it is a measure of the discontent. “I think it could be his Suez,” said a former cabinet minister under Cameron and May. This parallel with the 1950s conflict that led to Anthony Eden’s resignation was cited by many.
Serving ministers, even one-time allies, were shocked too. “He’s been overrun by the virus and by his ‘advisers’,” one minister said. “They are nasty, they misunderstand the parliamentary party, and above all are totally, totally ****. Over the last week — with the row over free school meals and this — I think we’ve lost the next election.”
All very reasonable, but I’m still not sure what in practice a leftist government would actually have done differently and how they would have greatly lowered the death toll. One thing I do think Boris slipped on, that another politician might not have, was the attitude of kind-of-dismissing the severity of the virus when a more sombre line of messaging might just have spurred people to be more careful.
But honestly, aside from the messaging I really don’t see what the likes of Labour would have done differently in terms of implementing lockdown measures. Ireland is essentially a great big open field compared to the U.K., with London alone having more than double our population squeezed into a relatively small area. A really effective lockdown there would have required absolutely tremendously draconian measures from a really early stage.
Indeed, many of the countries touched by the Blue Banana belt of high population density in Western Europe have struggled with numbers, regardless of ideologies in place. I’m all for hammering the Tories for the damage they have done since 2016, but I think some of the criticism as regards the UK’s Covid numbers reeks mor of inevitable political opportunism than entirely fair criticism.0 -
German population density is a bit over 230, UK is around 270. Even if you take that into account it hardly explains almost 5 times higher death rate. Higher population density is definitely a factor but even now UK have a lot higher incidence going into restrictions than Germany (admittedly less severe restrictions).
There is no big science what measures work, it's important not to go into them too late. Also UK as Ireland messed up testing in spring.0 -
German population density is a bit over 230, UK is around 270. Even if you take that into account it hardly explains almost 5 times higher death rate. Higher population density is definitely a factor but even now UK have a lot higher incidence going into restrictions than Germany (admittedly less severe restrictions).
There is no big science what measures work, it's important not to go into them too late. Also UK as Ireland messed up testing in spring.
I think you need to compare urban density rather than population density. Although I’m not sure how Germany compares in that regard. You could also just put it down to the Germans being Germans and doing things efficiently and orderly I guess.
Population density in Spain, for example is fairly low, but large parts of the country are empty and cities like Madrid and Barcelona have high urban densities and that is where Covid has been rampant. Again, when you look at where Covid had hit in Italy, the Puglia region was more or less untouched, but Lombardy decimated.0 -
What sort lag is there between the Zoe estimated R and that of the ONS? And has it consistently being a good indicator to date? There appears to be a significant enough difference between the two right now.theological wrote: »Interestingly the UK R is at 1.0 today even before the lockdown begins according to the KCL Zoe data.
Are the measures we had before beginning to work? Of course if the country locks down completely for a month it'll decrease even further.0 -
ArthurDayne wrote: »All very reasonable, but I’m still not sure what in practice a leftist government would actually have done differently and how they would have greatly lowered the death toll. One thing I do think Boris slipped on, that another politician might not have, was the attitude of kind-of-dismissing the severity of the virus when a more sombre line of messaging might just have spurred people to be more careful.
But honestly, aside from the messaging I really don’t see what the likes of Labour would have done differently in terms of implementing lockdown measures. Ireland is essentially a great big open field compared to the U.K., with London alone having more than double our population squeezed into a relatively small area. A really effective lockdown there would have required absolutely tremendously draconian measures from a really early stage.
Indeed, many of the countries touched by the Blue Banana belt of high population density in Western Europe have struggled with numbers, regardless of ideologies in place. I’m all for hammering the Tories for the damage they have done since 2016, but I think some of the criticism as regards the UK’s Covid numbers reeks mor of inevitable political opportunism than entirely fair criticism.
And yet they managed very well in Seoul, Tokyo and Taipei. Other countries have proven that it is absolutely possible to get a handle on the virus but that does require taking it seriously.
Boris was making light of it all the way into late March, trying to be all jolly about it, as if you can make a virus go away with positive thinking and bluster. Going into hospitals and shaking hands with covid patients, as if it was all one big joke. Of course this affected public perception of how dangerous the virus was. People really didn't think it was anything to worry about.0 -
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Edit: this is a response to Aegir's post.
Spain had mass marches in March (8th and some far right stuff) and Italy Atalanta CL match caused huge damage, Lombardy also closed a lot slower and less strict than Veneto for example.. Both countries have high number of generations mixing inside households. I think some excuses can be made for Italy and Covid didn't overly spread south to Rome and further. Spain in my opinion is neck and neck with UK for the poorest response in Europe during first wave.
Johnson over-promised and underperformed throughout the year and his fiercest critics are actilly on the right. Just scanning titles in Telegraph tells you it's far from just Labour who are critical of his performance.0 -
Incidence per 100k for Scotland shown in this tweet, mainly going down. I live in South Lanarkshire council area
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/13237279243616460850 -
lainey_d_123 wrote: »And yet they managed very well in Seoul, Tokyo and Taipei. Other countries have proven that it is absolutely possible to get a handle on the virus but that does require taking it seriously.
Boris was making light of it all the way into late March, trying to be all jolly about it, as if you can make a virus go away with positive thinking and bluster. Going into hospitals and shaking hands with covid patients, as if it was all one big joke. Of course this affected public perception of how dangerous the virus was. People really didn't think it was anything to worry about.
Yeah, though those cities you mention have previous experience of epidemics like SARS which led them to have more developed methods for responding to this one. The fact that we in Europe were not prepared is a collective criticism which is not exclusive to the U.K.
Again, I completely agree with the argument that Boris downplayed the severity of the virus and that the messaging was poor — as I mentioned in my post. But even with good messaging, the UK still would have needed stringent lockdown measures from an early stage.
My point is not as much defending Boris as it is questioning the idea that the UKs failures on Covid can be blamed on Tory ideology.0 -
He only took it seriously when he caught it himself. I would also add not sacking Cummings for breaking lockdown as a major mistake.ArthurDayne wrote: »One thing I do think Boris slipped on, that another politician might not have, was the attitude of kind-of-dismissing the severity of the virus when a more sombre line of messaging might just have spurred people to be more careful.0 -
What sort lag is there between the Zoe estimated R and that of the ONS? And has it consistently being a good indicator to date? There appears to be a significant enough difference between the two right now.
ONS probably has a greater lag judging by how quickly I got my test results from the survey when I was participating (2 weeks later in most cases).
KCL's data is based on contributors in their app and data that I linked to yesterday is from October 30th. The sample size of the study is also probably greater.0 -
Edit: this is a response to Aegir's post.
Spain had mass marches in March (8th and some far right stuff) and Italy Atalanta CL match caused huge damage, Lombardy also closed a lot slower and less strict than Veneto for example.. Both countries have high number of generations mixing inside households. I think some excuses can be made for Italy and Covid didn't overly spread south to Rome and further. Spain in my opinion is neck and neck with UK for the poorest response in Europe during first wave.
Lombardy also has the second largest city in Italy and the UK also has a large number of multi generational households.
It is irrelevant though, you could apply the same logic to Belgium, France or the Netherlands. There appears to be a very solid link to the spread of covid and urban density. There is a reason the Blue Banana of europe is said to spread from Manchester to Milan and encompasses the worst hit countries.Johnson over-promised and underperformed throughout the year and his fiercest critics are actilly on the right. Just scanning titles in Telegraph tells you it's far from just Labour who are critical of his performance.
Yeah, whatever you do, don't just rely on the newspapers to tell you what is going on, they are all looking to shift copies or increase clicks. That seems to be one of the issues on this thread, that people read the Guardian and take every word they say as gospel.
yes, he over promised, but what benchmark are you using to say he has under performed? Are you comparing it to his promises, or other countries?0 -
Lombardy also has the second largest city in Italy and the UK also has a large n
Yeah, whatever you do, don't just rely on the newspapers to tell you what is going on, they are all looking to shift copies or increase clicks. That seems to be one of the issues on this thread, that people read the Guardian and take every word they say as gospel.
yes, he over promised, but what benchmark are you using to say he has under performed? Are you comparing it to his promises, or other countries?
Firstly I quoted Murdoch's The Times earlier and mentioned article titles in Telegraf, I did not mention Guardian. For Covid and UK response coverage I find The Times (I'm subscribed to) the best but it's hardly left leaning newspaper. So you can stop dismissing criticism as Guardian nonsense, Johnson's response is criticised by his own side.
As for overpromising, where do I start:
- world beating app in spring
- world beating testing in spring
- 5 minute antibody tests supplied by Amazon or Boots or whomever in spring
- saying things will be back to normal for Christmas in summer
- no lockdown 2, 3 weeks ago.
There is a mountain of bluster and **** all of achievement unless you count record numbers of dead in Europe as an achievement.0 -
I don't think we can be too critical of anyone using his promises as a performance benchmark. It might not tell the complete picture of what's happened over the past few months but it's certainly one lens to look at it from.0
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The problem is big promises were made to paper over the underperformance. They became a joke because the moment a mishap happened another promise was made.I don't think we can be too critical of anyone using his promises as a performance benchmark. It might not tell the complete picture of what's happened over the past few months but it's certainly one lens to look at it from.0 -
Firstly I quoted Murdoch's The Times earlier and mentioned article titles in Telegraf, I did not mention Guardian. For Covid and UK response coverage I find The Times (I'm subscribed to) the best but it's hardly left leaning newspaper. So you can stop dismissing criticism as Guardian nonsense, Johnson's response is criticised by his own side.
I didn't though, I said this "whatever you do, don't just rely on the newspapers to tell you what is going on, they are all looking to shift copies or increase clicks"As for overpromising, where do I start:
- world beating app in spring
- world beating testing in spring
- 5 minute antibody tests supplied by Amazon or Boots or whomever in spring
- saying things will be back to normal for Christmas in summer
- no lockdown 2, 3 weeks ago.
There is a mountain of bluster and **** all of achievement unless you count record numbers of dead in Europe as an achievement.
I said he over promised, i asked what benchmark are you using to say he has under performed? Are you comparing it to his promises, or other countries?0 -
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I don't think we can be too critical of anyone using his promises as a performance benchmark. It might not tell the complete picture of what's happened over the past few months but it's certainly one lens to look at it from.
It is, but as always, you need to look at it from more than one angle. If you promise to fly to Saturn, but only make it to Mars, is it a failure or an achievement?
you can only really gauge that if you look at how many other people have flown to Saturn previously. If no one has made it past the moon than getting to Mars is a great achievement, but still a failed promise.0 -
I didn't though, I said this "whatever you do, don't just rely on the newspapers to tell you what is going on, they are all looking to shift copies or increase clicks"
I said he over promised, i asked what benchmark are you using to say he has under performed? Are you comparing it to his promises, or other countries?
I think it's clear it's both.
You can dismiss anything as click gathering. Where should we get news? Facebook? Twitter? You can count the dead or economic deficit but in both UK is among worst performers. There aren't too many planets they managed to fly to.0 -
I think it's clear it's both.
You can dismiss anything as click gathering. Where should we get news? Facebook? Twitter? You can count the dead or economic deficit but in both UK is among worst performers. There aren't too many planets they managed to fly to.
So on the basis that zero deaths was unrealistic, what was the correct number and what data are you using to support this?0 -
Absolute and relative comparison in Europe is fine enough by me. What data are you using to rebuff that UK handled it badly? Is there something that says UK did well except allegories about travel to Saturn?So on the basis that zero deaths was unrealistic, what was the correct number and what data are you using to support this?
You offered absolutely no actual argument that rebuffs criticism of how UK handled the crisis except accusing media of click baits.0 -
Absolute and relative comparison in Europe is fine enough by me. What data are you using to rebuff that UK handled it badly? Is there something that says UK did well except allegories about travel to Saturn?
You offered absolutely no actual argument that rebuffs criticism of how UK handled the crisis except accusing media of click baits.
I'm not making any claims, I am asking what do you base your claims that they handled it badly on.
There are many variables at play with this virus, such as demographics, urban density and the level at which a population travels. These will all vary from country to country which makes absolute comparison impossible, other than to say it appears that Germany has handled this a lot better than anyone else in europe.
Some of the eastern EU states seemed to do well initially, but their population don't travel a great deal, which probably meant a lower instance in the countries to begin with, but unfortunately they all seem to be getting a hard time now.
This is going to be a long hard winter for europe.0 -
It depends what you define as travel. If it's cross border travel central Europe would do a good bit, just not as much air travel. And it will be hard winter for Europe it just doesn't make uk response any better.I'm not making any claims, I am asking what do you base your claims that they handled it badly on.
There are many variables at play with this virus, such as demographics, urban density and the level at which a population travels. These will all vary from country to country which makes absolute comparison impossible, other than to say it appears that Germany has handled this a lot better than anyone else in europe.
Some of the eastern EU states seemed to do well initially, but their population don't travel a great deal, which probably meant a lower instance in the countries to begin with, but unfortunately they all seem to be getting a hard time now.
This is going to be a long hard winter for europe.0 -
theological wrote: »ONS probably has a greater lag judging by how quickly I got my test results from the survey when I was participating (2 weeks later in most cases).
KCL's data is based on contributors in their app and data that I linked to yesterday is from October 30th. The sample size of the study is also probably greater.
Yes but it is just one model and the estimate is based on that.
The official NHS R rate is 1.1 to 1,3
Latest by NHS England regions
These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions.
Region R Growth rate % per day
England 1.1-1.3 +3 to +5
East of England 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
London 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5
Midlands 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
North East and Yorkshire 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5
North West 1.0-1.2 +1 to +3
South East 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
South West 1.2-1.5 +4 to +70 -
Yes but it is just one model and the estimate is based on that.
The official NHS R rate is 1.1 to 1,3
Latest by NHS England regions
These are the latest R and growth rate estimates by NHS England regions.
Region R Growth rate % per day
England 1.1-1.3 +3 to +5
East of England 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
London 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5
Midlands 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
North East and Yorkshire 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5
North West 1.0-1.2 +1 to +3
South East 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
South West 1.2-1.5 +4 to +7
I'm aware it is just one model. It is a model with a very good sample size however.
The lockdown won't hurt in terms of the number of cases, I'm just wondering out loud if it is actually necessary given that it looks like the numbers are stabilising without one.0 -
UK is doing a speedrun on COVID with partial herd immunity.
He admitted yesterday that 1 in 90 people in UK have COVID right now, not in total since March.Mr Johnson: “On London and other areas where the gradient is being held down this is no accident. This is because of the collective efforts of the people of London and other areas because people are following the guidance.
“Yet overall the virus is still doubling in this county. About 1 in 90 people now have the virus. That’s a lot of people alas. We will see these cases sadly feeding through to our hospitals as we are now.
“What we need to do now is follow this guidance so we can have as normal a Christmas as possible.”0 -
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UK is doing a speedrun on COVID with partial herd immunity.
He admitted yesterday that 1 in 90 people in UK have COVID right now, not in total since March.
The UK office for national statistics is carrying out sample tests to try and understand how many people actually have it, rather than have tested positive.
This is nothing new and has been happening for months. The 1 in 90 figure is a statistical assumption not an official figure.0
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