The UK response - Part II - read OP

VinLieger

Aegir wrote: »

that was never a strategy though, no matter how many times people say it was. The talk of herd immunity was just someone with very little experience of talking to the press, talking to the most rabid press in the world and getting thoroughly burned.

anyway, interesting article from the Beeb on the logic behind this

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57678942

Yourself and the tories can rewrite history all you want, we know that Vallance was advocating for the herd immunity strategy and it was only in response to his disastrous kite flying interviews the UK didn't pursue it.

I get a herd immunity strategy makes some sense now but the way they are going about it is just irresponsible and populist. Quite simply Boris doesn't want to be in charge of covid strategy anymore or the results of it, so hes passing the buck off to the English citizens so he cant be lumbered with the very real potential catastrophic results.

robinph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He also said that they could go as high as 100,000 a day.

For context, that 50,000 number would equate to 3,800 cases per day here. A sevenfold increase on current figures. Considering 1 in 20 people infected by Covid develop Long Covid, It might not turn out so well for the UK.

When was the 1 in 20 developing long covid stat from? Is that same ratio apply since vaccines were done in large numbers.

I saw mentions previously of people with long covid since wave 1 who then recovered from it post vaccination. Don't hear much about long covid at the moment though, mostly quiet on that front.

VinLieger

robinph wrote: »

When was the 1 in 20 developing long covid stat from? Is that same ratio apply since vaccines were done in large numbers.

I saw mentions previously of people with long covid since wave 1 who then recovered from it post vaccination. Don't hear much about long covid at the moment though, mostly quiet on that front.

ISAG and independent SAGE have been claiming its 1 in 7 for long covid

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

When was the 1 in 20 developing long covid stat from? Is that same ratio apply since vaccines were done in large numbers.

I saw mentions previously of people with long covid since wave 1 who then recovered from it post vaccination. Don't hear much about long covid at the moment though, mostly quiet on that front.

It's from this article here written two weeks ago. The study was done between September 2020-February 2021. Some pertinent quotes:

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the REACT programme from Imperial’s School of Public Health, said: “Our findings do paint a concerning picture of the longer-term health consequences of COVID-19, which need to be accounted for in policy and planning.

Helen Ward, Professor of Public Health at the School of Public Health, said: “Our research shows that many people who have had COVID-19 will have lasting symptoms and for some these may have a big impact on their quality of life. Given the number of infections in England this represents a significant public health issue that needs to be urgently addressed through appropriate support and treatment.”

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

Yourself and the tories can rewrite history all you want, we know that Vallance was advocating for the herd immunity strategy and it was only in response to his disastrous kite flying interviews the UK didn't pursue it.

I get a herd immunity strategy makes some sense now but the way they are going about it is just irresponsible and populist. Quite simply Boris doesn't want to be in charge of covid strategy anymore or the results of it, so hes passing the buck off to the English citizens so he cant be lumbered with the very real potential catastrophic results.

rewrite history?

no, I am just able to read things without running around screaming outrage.

a good summary of what actually happened here https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/04/real-reason-uk-government-pursued-herd-immunity-and-why-it-was-abandoned

brickster69

Boggles wrote: »

50,000 infections a day by "Freedom Day" according to Javid this morning.

Let's go toe to toe Delta you big bad mother fu##er

HalfAndHalf

TonyMaloney wrote: »

You all lost months of life just this year due to a variant made in England.

They're soon opening up fully despite only being partially vaccinated. It's the ****ing perfect environment for a variant to emerge that further evades the vaccines.

I really can't get my head around why you'd cheer them on. You literally all just suffered due to Boris Johnson's mishandling of covid.

Jesus Christ!! Maybe if you took of your Brit hating tinted specs you’d start talking sense!

Variant made in England, Jaysus that’s some class A shinner spin right there.

Mehapoy

Dont really care what the tories do to their own population but concetning that are giving up on trying to contain covid and potentially giving a virus resistant variant the chance to circulate in a partially vaccinated population like a lab experiment. if a virus resistant strain does emerge, that plunges the rest of the world right back to Feb 2020.

HalfAndHalf

Mehapoy wrote: »

Dont really care what the tories do to their own population but concetning that are giving up on trying to contain covid and potentially giving a virus resistant variant the chance to circulate in a partially vaccinated population like a lab experiment. if a virus resistant strain does emerge, that plunges the rest of the world right back to Feb 2020.

Here have some actual facts.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-dangerous-is-the-new-delta-plus-variant--heres-what-we-know

For a start you’re probably trying to say vaccine resistant strain, of which the delta is not. All there is so far is a ‘study’ in Israel that says the vaccine’s efficacy against delta is lower, not zero. I’ll wait for some more substantiated proof from elsewhere on that.

Additionally, when do YOU think we should re-open based on these vaccine resistant strains you mentioned? Never, just in case?

The majority of the U.K. are fully vaccinated providing an immunity to all known strains, of which there are many unknown strains.

We will have the majority fully vaccinated soon so why shouldn’t we try and recover people’s livelihoods, mental health, liberties etc.

robinph

VinLieger wrote: »

ISAG and independent SAGE have been claiming its 1 in 7 for long covid

1 in 7 feels like way too high a number. With 5M positive tests in the UK so far, which will be under reported due to no testing early on, I'd have thought it would be more obvious if 1M people currently had long covid. Possibly I did my sums wrong there, but 1 in 7 doesn't sound right.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's from this article here written two weeks ago. The study was done between September 2020-February 2021. Some pertinent quotes:

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the REACT programme from Imperial’s School of Public Health, said: “Our findings do paint a concerning picture of the longer-term health consequences of COVID-19, which need to be accounted for in policy and planning.

Helen Ward, Professor of Public Health at the School of Public Health, said: “Our research shows that many people who have had COVID-19 will have lasting symptoms and for some these may have a big impact on their quality of life. Given the number of infections in England this represents a significant public health issue that needs to be urgently addressed through appropriate support and treatment.”

If it was only up until Feb 21 then it won't include any effects from vaccination. Could really do with seeing the same thing done again now with the vaccinated population.

VinLieger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Jesus Christ!! Maybe if you took of your Brit hating tinted specs you’d start talking sense!

Variant made in England, Jaysus that’s some class A shinner spin right there.

The Alpha Variant originated in Kent.... spin that

VinLieger

robinph wrote: »

1 in 7 feels like way too high a number. With 5M positive tests in the UK so far, which will be under reported due to no testing early on, I'd have thought it would be more obvious if 1M people currently had long covid. Possibly I did my sums wrong there, but 1 in 7 doesn't sound right.



If it was only up until Feb 21 then it won't include any effects from vaccination. Could really do with seeing the same thing done again now with the vaccinated population.

Ohh it absolutely is too high, ISAG et al have been spewing garbage skewed statistics for months now

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

The Alpha Variant originated in Kent.... spin that

And it isn’t vaccine resistant.

New strains appear regularly, nothing will prevent that.

HalfAndHalf

VinLieger wrote: »

The Alpha Variant originated in Kent.... spin that

No, the Alpha variant was first seen in Kent, based on U.K. scientists isolating the strain and stating the first case was from someone in Kent.

How do you know where it originated, could have started in France or any continental country based on the amount of Channel
Hoppers arriving daily. Unless of course you’ve hard proof that it originated there.

But yeah, bloody Brits creating virus variants and letting them loose on the world. Bad Brits, evil Brits! LOL.

VinLieger

Aegir wrote: »

And it isn’t vaccine resistant.

New strains appear regularly, nothing will prevent that.

I don't think the claim was made that it was resistant I was simply pointing out its not spin to point out that the Alpha Variant originated in England.

But also a vaccine resistant strain absolutely has more chance of developing in a higher vaccinated country like England that suddenly lets the virus run rampant as they are choosing to do.

Im not saying it will but its entirely possible.

HalfAndHalf

VinLieger wrote: »

I don't think the claim was made that it was resistant I was simply pointing out its not spin to point out that the Alpha Variant originated in England.

But also a vaccine resistant strain absolutely has more chance of developing in a higher vaccinated country like England that suddenly lets the virus run rampant as they are choosing to do.

Im not saying it will but its entirely possible.

And I’ve dubunked your ‘it started in England’ non theory born out of Brit hate.

Your just posting random thoughts from your head, every country will open once the majority of citizens are vaccinated, so based on your ‘theory’, everywhere is going to create its own vaccine resistant strain.

Ridiculous posting.

VinLieger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

No, the Alpha variant was first seen in Kent, based on U.K. scientists isolating the strain and stating the first case was from someone in Kent.

How do you know where it originated, could have started in France or any continental country based on the amount of Channel
Hoppers arriving daily. Unless of course you’ve hard proof that it originated there.

But yeah, bloody Brits creating virus variants and letting them loose on the world. Bad Brits, evil Brits! LOL.

The overriding consensus is it originated in the UK, do you have evidence showing otherwise? Probably should let the WHO know in that case.

Also whats the obsession with rewriting history with regards to the UK? I know its what kids are taught to do in schools there by ignoring all the bad stuff the empire did but seriously stop only reading the express or the telegraph expand your horizons a bit more.

VinLieger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

And I’ve dubunked your ‘it started in England’ non theory born out of Brit hate.

Your just posting random thoughts from your head, every country will open once the majority of citizens are vaccinated, so based on your ‘theory’, everywhere is going to create its own vaccine resistant strain.

Ridiculous posting.

LOL currently the UK is the highest vaccinated country that will be rolling back restrictions so completely and in one fell swoop.


Get over yourself FFS.

HalfAndHalf

VinLieger wrote: »

The overriding consensus is it originated in the UK, do you have evidence showing otherwise? Probably should let the WHO know in that case.

Also whats the obsession with rewriting history with regards to the UK? I know its what kids are taught to do in schools there by ignoring all the bad stuff the empire did but seriously stop only reading the express or the telegraph expand your horizons a bit more.

This is the consensus:

Where did the UK variant come from?

No one knows. The data suggests it arose fully formed in a single person. That could happen in a patient with a chronic Covid-19 infection, because the virus has time to mutate into many variants within one body. One possibility is that it arose in a patient with an impaired immune system who was treated over weeks or months with antibodies from a recovered patient. In this situation, the antibodies wipe out some variants of the virus, leaving others at least partially resistant to the treatment. Another hypothesis is that the variant was imported from another country. The origins of the South Africa variant are similarly unclear.


What are you even on about rewriting history, you’re just trying to turn this topic into Brit hating drivel, why don’t you go find a thread dedicated to Brit hating and stop posting incorrect ‘theories’ here. The Empire, Jaysus what are you even about!

HalfAndHalf

VinLieger wrote: »

LOL currently the UK is the highest vaccinated country that will be rolling back restrictions so completely and in one fell swoop.


Get over yourself FFS.

Wow! Can I have this Friday’s euromillions numbers please? LOL! Your jealousy and hatred cannot be doing you any good!

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

But also a vaccine resistant strain absolutely has more chance of developing in a higher vaccinated country like England that suddenly lets the virus run rampant as they are choosing to do.

Does it?

The virus isn't going away. at some point, we will all be vaccinated and the virus will be running around more or less unnoticed. it is either that. or we remain under constant states of lockdowns for ever.

VinLieger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Wow! Can I have this Friday’s euromillions numbers please? LOL! Your jealousy and hatred cannot be doing you any good!

Jealous of what? Of having almost twice the death rate per 1 million as Ireland? Yeah im suuuuuper jealous.....

brickster69

Should be 90% of 1st doses & 75% of second by the 19th.

https://twitter.com/BarryCPearson/status/1412391044671488009

VinLieger

Aegir wrote: »

Does it?

The virus isn't going away. at some point, we will all be vaccinated and the virus will be running around more or less unnoticed. it is either that. or we remain under constant states of lockdowns for ever.

I agree its not going away which is why we should keep wearing masks for a good while longer while also reopening and getting economies going again. Masks cause no harm to anyone, are not restrictive in anyway despite what some morons claim and really do help prevent infections. They should absolutely be part of the living with covid strategy that helps us get back to living our lives like we used to. They are a tiny infinitesimal price to pay imo.

HalfAndHalf

VinLieger wrote: »

Jealous of what? Of having almost twice the death rate per 1 million as Ireland? Yeah im suuuuuper jealous.....

LOL, yeah just ignore everything else showing all your posts are born out of your hate for the Brits.

So you’re one of those treating all of this as big competition. Christ I’ve no more time for ya, surely you’re either trolling or spoofing!

igCorcaigh

Aegir wrote: »

Does it?

The virus isn't going away. at some point, we will all be vaccinated and the virus will be running around more or less unnoticed. it is either that. or we remain under constant states of lockdowns for ever.

I guess the idea is that allowing the virus to thrive in a half vaccinated population will increase the selective pressure on any novel vaccine-resistant virus.
That selection pressure would be far less if either very few people were vaccinated, or very few unvaccinated.
(Hope that makes sense!)

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

Jealous of what? Of having almost twice the death rate per 1 million as Ireland? Yeah im suuuuuper jealous.....

well, we don't know that for certain, after the HSE failed to renew it's McAfee licence.

VinLieger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

LOL, yeah just ignore everything else showing all your posts are born out of your hate for the Brits.

So you’re one of those treating all of this as big competition. Christ I’ve no more time for ya, surely you’re either trolling or spoofing!

Your claiming I think of this as a competition while also being the one who accused me of being jealous of the UK.....


Cognitive dissonance is a beautiful thing.

VinLieger

Aegir wrote: »

well, we don't know that for certain, after the HSE failed to renew it's McAfee licence.

LOL and apparently im the one turning it into a tit for tat competition.... if you want we can all play this game, wannacry much?

robinph

The last few pages are exactly why they came up with the Alpha, Beta... variant names rather than sticking with geographical identification. People use the geographical terms to blame different locations they want to have a dig at and try and blame a country for something they had zero control over.

Whichever variant could have emerged in absolutely any location and nobody has any control over that. There is things you can do to prevent it gaining entry to your country, for which Johnson is due criticism for Delta. But absolutely nothing that anyone could do to prevent Alpha or Delta existing wherever it was that they happened to first emerge and then be detected.

VinLieger

robinph wrote: »

The last few pages are exactly why they came up with the Alpha, Beta... variant names rather than sticking with geographical identification. People use the geographical terms to blame different locations they want to have a dig at and try and blame a country for something they had zero control over.

Whichever variant could have emerged in absolutely any location and nobody has any control over that. There is things you can do to prevent it gaining entry to your country, for which Johnson is due criticism for Delta. But absolutely nothing that anyone could do to prevent Alpha or Delta existing wherever it was that they happened to first emerge and then be detected.

Indeed and i agree the change to Alpha Delta etc is good but it also needs to be pointed out when others are unwilling to accept reality like certain posters on here are when any criticism at all is leveled towards the UK

AllForIt

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think the messaging around this is very important. It's one thing to say "We're removing the legal prohibitions - you now need to take responsiblity for your own behaviour, and think carefully about the impact on others of what you do, and what you can do to minimise the risk to them". It's quite another to say "We're removing the legal prohibitions - you can all party like it's New Year's Eve to celebrate your liberation from medico-fascism!"

From this point of view the language of "Freedom Day!" is most unfortunate. It frames pandemic control measures primarily as a constraint that burdens people, not as a protection that benefits them, and that's precisely the opposite of the frame of mind you want them to be in. Letting people be responsible for their own decisions about this does really depend on people being, well, responsible in the decisions they make.

Pandemic control measures are for most people a burden and most people didn't have to take the vaccine. Most people took it for the benefit of others including those who take no personal responsibility for their own health.

There is a limit to how long people can reasonably be expected to curtail their lives for other people and my opinion is that in the UK that limit has been reached. And Long Covid makes no difference. To prevent death yes, but for an illness that will pass? No.

If it were the case in this country that the government lifted restrictions than that's good enough for me. I am not going to continue to behave as though I hadn't had the vaccine or that no one else has had it, as if that didn't happen, because that's exactly what some are saying in the UK should be how people should continue to behave.

It's alright for the likes of Piers Morgan with no doubt mansion of a house where he can invite his elite friends over for an outdoor gathering.

I on the other hand according to him would be expected to wear a mask on public transport which would mean wearing one for 3.5 hours on the train if I wanted a getaway to Dublin. There is no way I can wear a mask that long so no travelling for me for a while yet. But as I say if our gov lifted that restriction then it's no mask for me and anyone who would dare to challenge me on it would regret it.

VinLieger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Like your post ‘the Alpha variant originated in the U.K. spin that!’

And then argued when provided with the facts that nobody has determined where it originates.

Instead of praising the countries that bother to isolate new variants and share the news worldwide your just interested in being able point score against the U.K. it’s embarrassing.

There’s a new variant been found in Peru, will you bash them too?

Flip like the weather! LOL!

Aww im sad to see you didn't take that break, also I thought you said you were done with me? Again if you have evidence showing it didn't originate in the UK id love to see it but again most agree it probably did.

I don't see why you think i'm trying to bash the UK here i'm just stating a fact and pointing out how your original post that had a problem with someone claiming that was a bit petty.

Much like Delta has been overwhelmingly agreed upon to have originated in India. Would you have as much of a problem with me making that claim?

I dont see anywhere I was trying to point score before you claimed I was for some reason jealous of the UK which is in itself a pretty pathetic way to score points.

Again id suggest getting over yourself and taking a break it might do you some good.

HalfAndHalf

VinLieger wrote: »

Aww im sad to see you didn't take that break, also I thought you said you were done with me? Again if you have evidence showing it didn't originate in the UK id love to see it but again most agree it probably did.

I don't see why you think i'm trying to bash the UK here i'm just stating a fact and pointing out how your original post that had a problem with someone claiming that was a bit petty.

Much like Delta has been overwhelmingly agreed upon to have originated in India. Would you have as much of a problem with me making that claim?

I dont see anywhere I was trying to point score before you claimed I was for some reason jealous of the UK which is in itself a pretty pathetic way to score points.

Again id suggest getting over yourself and taking a break it might do you some good.

You can’t prove a negative, feel free to provide evidence that it did though.

Again, just because something was first identified somewhere (in this case India) it doesn’t mean it originated there. There’s no evidence to say that it did.

As I say, you seem to be against countries who go to the effort of isolating variants to help fight them.

You ask for facts yet are happy to believe something when none exist.

If you can’t accept how your posts come across that’s on you.

VinLieger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

As I say, you seem to be against countries who go to the effort of isolating variants to help fight them.

Im really not, ive been pretty critical of the Irish government throughout all this if it makes you happier.

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

You ask for facts yet are happy to believe something when none exist.

No I accept scientific consensus as being the best and most accurate answer in the absence of complete 100% verifiable evidence.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I guess the idea is that allowing the virus to thrive in a half vaccinated population will increase the selective pressure on any novel vaccine-resistant virus.
That selection pressure would be far less if either very few people were vaccinated, or very few unvaccinated.
(Hope that makes sense!)

It does to an extent, but surely it would follow that the more pressure applied by vaccines, the more chance there is of a super variant that wipes us all out.

We will never get 100% of people vaccinated, so will the few percent that aren’t basically become super bio weapon?

HalfAndHalf

VinLieger wrote: »

Im really not, ive been pretty critical of the Irish government throughout all this if it makes you happier.



No I accept scientific consensus as being the best and most accurate answer in the absence of complete 100% verifiable evidence.

Where is this scientific consensus that just because a country identifies a variant it’s scientifically conceded that it originated there?

I think you’re confused.

is_that_so

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Where is this scientific consensus that just because a country identifies a variant it’s scientifically conceded that it originated there?

I think you’re confused.

It gets uploaded into a whopping database of over 1m genomes so there's no problem matching them. They generally say where a genome or variant was first reported so that's the country identification for you. Our first versions were identified in Austria I believe, midlands UK too.

Same goes for Wuhan. First identified in a massive transport hub of a city.

HalfAndHalf

is_that_so wrote: »

It gets uploaded into a whopping database of over 1m genomes so there's no problem matching them. They generally say where a genome or variant was first reported so that's the country identification for you. Our first versions were identified in Austria I believe, midlands UK too.

Variants that are isolated by that country and then published are uploaded into a DB maybe, but that doesn’t mean that’s where it originated, travel has been open throughout the pandemic for example.

Case in point the ‘Kent’ virus, the landbridge Mecca of Europe as a prime example.

TonyMaloney

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

You can’t prove a negative, feel free to provide evidence that it did though.

Again, just because something was first identified somewhere (in this case India) it doesn’t mean it originated there. There’s no evidence to say that it did.

As I say, you seem to be against countries who go to the effort of isolating variants to help fight them.

You ask for facts yet are happy to believe something when none exist.

If you can’t accept how your posts come across that’s on you.

They know the exact person the alpha variant originated in in Kent.

igCorcaigh

Aegir wrote: »

It does to an extent, but surely it would follow that the more pressure applied by vaccines, the more chance there is of a super variant that wipes us all out.

We will never get 100% of people vaccinated, so will the few percent that aren’t basically become super bio weapon?

It's a probabilities question.
The less virus in circulation, the less opportunity for mutation.
The fact that vaccines still work gives me hope that resistance will not arise.

ACitizenErased

The chances of a 'super variant' are slim/impossible at best. Any mutation of the spike protein (which the vaccines target) will lead to SARS-COVI-2 losing it's advantage over other viruses. This spike protein is the reason it is so successful.

is_that_so

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Variants that are isolated by that country and then published are uploaded into a DB maybe, but that doesn’t mean that’s where it originated, travel has been open throughout the pandemic for example.

Case in point the ‘Kent’ virus, the landbridge Mecca of Europe as a prime example.

It's the first time it was reported but there's a fairly good chance that it did in the majority of cases.

HalfAndHalf

TonyMaloney wrote: »

They know the exact person the alpha variant originated in in Kent.

They know the exact person who first presented symptoms and went to be tested with that variant, could have been any amount of asymptomatic carriers or symptomatic passers through that brought it in.

Therein lays the issue with pointing at a location as ground zero.

HalfAndHalf

is_that_so wrote: »

It's the first time it was reported but there's a fairly good chance that it did in the majority of cases.

If you’re happy living life under the pretence of ‘fairly good chance’ then that’s your prerogative.

What about all the countries in Europe who aren’t testing for variants, they never know what variants they’ve got at any given time!

TonyMaloney

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

They know the exact person who first presented symptoms and went to be tested with that variant, could have been any amount of asymptomatic carriers or symptomatic passers through that brought it in.

Therein lays the issue with pointing at a location as ground zero.

Nope

They know the exact immunocompromised individual that harbored the mutating virus.

Please, continue though

Not sure what Boris and the UK gov are playing at really. Hospitalisations hit 400 today, they'll be easily at 1000+ by the end of the month, if I worked for the NHS I'd be handing in my notice. Putting them through another wave of sh*t, when a small bit more patience is required.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not sure what Boris and the UK gov are playing at really. Hospitalisations hit 400 today, they'll be easily at 1000+ by the end of the month, if I worked for the NHS I'd be handing in my notice. Putting them through another wave of sh*t, when a small bit more patience is required.

In December countries all over the world closed off their borders to the UK. Looks like many will have to do that again.

Not a fan of the Guardian but it tells how that came to pass ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/worlds-media-ask-how-it-went-so-wrong-for-plague-island-britain-covid

Plague Island indeed.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not sure what Boris and the UK gov are playing at really. Hospitalisations hit 400 today, they'll be easily at 1000+ by the end of the month, if I worked for the NHS I'd be handing in my notice. Putting them through another wave of sh*t, when a small bit more patience is required.

At the peak of the last wave, there were over 4000 hospitalizations per day. During the winter, there are likely to be 1000 flu patients admitted per day.