The UK response - Part II - read OP

bilston

Christy42 wrote: »

Their death rate is nearly double Ireland's. A quick glance on worldometer shows them as 13th out of 47 for death rate. A few either side are smaller countries that should be excluded but you get the point.

The issue was at the beginning death rates seem to have been higher (I guess we learned to treat it better). The UK was the one encouraging people to shake hands and talking about herd immunity saving the day. They were the main mistakes made. You talk about the deadly Kent variant but their death rate has been consistently higher than our own.

Europe has not dealt with this perfectly. A lot of Eastern European countries, especially Hungary were ill equipped for it. Italy never had a shot imo, it got hit too early. I have no idea what went wrong in Belgium.

To be fair the various death tolls for countries make little sense.

I'm still not entirely sure how France has 1 million extra confirmed cases that the UK, yet 25,000 fewer deaths.

Bear in mind the UK has completed 150 million tests and France 75 million. Either France has understated its death toll or the UK has overstated.

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Occams Razor

France handled Covid better, the response in UK was disastrous, seeing how there’s political reasons in UK to sweep 70000 extra deaths under carpet i wouldn’t be surprised if there’s more as statistics were probably fiddled with there

Same for blood clotting issues with AZ notice how much longer it took for uk to come clean with stats despite having more people vaccinated with AZ faster, with attacks on other countries such as Norway in media until they could no longer cover up the issue

is the pandemic over then?

you might want to ask the relatives of the 400 people in France who died yesterday what they think.

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You predicting that French rate would remain at 400 for next 6 months? because that’s how long it have to be to reach UK abysmal death rate

In meantime Tories pretty much proclaiming victory over Covid yet there are signs AZ doesn’t work well against the emerging Indian variant, I suspect in 6 months time there be tears.

Aside it was 145 deaths yesterday there

398 according to, errr, the French https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA

but the only real indication is excess deaths, which vary enormously between countries.

But you're not really interested in a sensible discussion, so there isn't much point in engaging with you.

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Go wave the flag a little faster and clap a little harder might distract from Boris’s pile of bones

you are very angry. Very angry.

Have you ever tried meditation or other relaxation techniques?

El Vino

I have spent a fair bit of time in Ireland and the UK during the pandemic. I have travelled more than I should but I'm lucky enough that I have a house I can isolate completely for 2 weeks in both countries. I lost 2 close relations during the year one to covid so this was why I needed to travel so much. Antibody tests show I never had covid. I think I'm pretty well qualified to assess what both countries response has been and in reality mostly it has been pretty similar until we started rolling out the vaccines. I suspect Demographics including age profiles of the populations and population density explain most of the differences in outcomes.

The UK made a massive error in failing to lock down 5-10 days earlier at the begining of the pandemic and again they were slow before Christmas. And while Boris is a lying turd I certainly don't think we have underreported deaths here. Not all the the British Press are jingoistic flag wavers. The Times have an excellent investigative podcast series called "Stories of our Times" if you are really interested in Britain's response listen to the 3 episodes called Failure of State from March 8th on.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/podcasts/stories-of-our-times

Necro

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Go wave the flag a little faster and clap a little harder might distract from Boris’s pile of bones

Aegir wrote: »

you are very angry. Very angry.

Have you ever tried meditation or other relaxation techniques?

Both of you cop on and post in a civil manner, or don't post in this thread

serfboard

S.M.B. wrote: »

Not sure how they're getting through the bands so quickly n Wales as they are only opening up to 42+ here in England now.

Not quite as impressive as Wales, but vaccination is now open for 35-39 year olds in NI.

brickster69

25% of adults have now had 2 doses in the UK

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-records-17-covid-deaths-as-quarter-of-adults-have-now-had-both-vaccine-doses-12288609

expectationlost

anyone know what percent of the uk has confirmed had covid and what is science's best estimates beyond that to how many probably had it?

expectationlost

expectationlost wrote: »

anyone know percent of the uk has confirmed had covid and what sciences best estimates beyond that to how many probably had it?

4.4m people have tested positive.

The office of national statistics do surveys but I don’t think they have a total number, just the probable number each week. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23april2021

S.M.B.

Aegir wrote: »

but the only real indication is excess deaths, which vary enormously between countries.

Is there any good source for this comparison right now?

I am definitely more concerned that the UK numbers are if anything inflated right now. The exact opposite to the situation we were in ~11 months ago.

S.M.B.

S.M.B. wrote: »

Is there any good source for this comparison right now?

I am definitely more concerned that the UK numbers are if anything inflated right now. The exact opposite to the situation we were in ~11 months ago.

the ONS and ourworldindata.org do some comparisons, it is hard work trawling through it all though.

forgot to add, the economist did a summary https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

S.M.B.

Had a quick scan of that economist article and it's really interesting. Will have a proper read later.

It's so difficult to find a single useful signal to measure the effects of the last year.

brickster69

The 50 Million doses barrier has been breached today.

https://twitter.com/WorldCOVID19/status/1389239358415323141

El Vino

One thing that they have got right is the testing regime in schools, 2 of my kids in secondary school here are tested twice a week with the lateral flow tests. On top of that anyone can request a box of tests for home. I do think that has an impact on how low the numbers are now on top of the vaccine success.

robinph

Kid was sent home from school this week due to coughing, whilst walking to fetch them I booked a test and was offered any time that day, including about 10 minutes later. Had a test booked for 40 minutes later though to give me time to drive us there before I'd got to the school reception. Straight off to the test center, test done for kid and me (couldn't ask the kid to do what I wasn't prepared to do myself) and out of the test centre about 10 minutes before the appointment was even booked for.

Text messages and emails at 7am the next morning, emailed copies to the school and kid straight back in.

Then discovered that the teachers had not told each other where they had put the asthma inhaler so they couldn't find it when the coughing started.

brickster69

Serum Institute of India to set up in the UK among others.

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/adar-poonawallas-serum-institute-to-invest-240-million-pounds-in-uk-7301283/

brickster69

Indian variant taking off. Good job all the over 65's have had 2 doses.

https://twitter.com/DiazHub/status/1391755308498923524

afatbollix

They have entered endemic level officially today. (Level 3)

2 deaths yesterday, only 1000 people in hospital but the numbers of infections is high at 2k+ a day.

Just shows the vulnerable are now protected.

robinph

brickster69 wrote: »

Indian variant taking off. Good job all the over 65's have had 2 doses.

https://twitter.com/DiazHub/status/1391755308498923524

That is missing a large part of the data. It's half the cases, but the number of cases still remains very low and nothing like what was happening in October with the Kent variant. Saw a bunch of comparison charts last week between Kent in April and India now and the only bit that matched was the percentage of cases of each. Didn't seem to be anything much to be overly concerned over and case numbers continue to fall despite massively more testing.

bilston

brickster69 wrote: »

Indian variant taking off. Good job all the over 65's have had 2 doses.

https://twitter.com/DiazHub/status/1391755308498923524

Cases are going to start rising in the UK again, and possibly quite sharply, probably by early June.

But that shouldn't be a surprise. The question is what impact will this have on the hospitals. The vaccines appear to be pretty effective against this new variant so the issue may be more around the under 40s who aren't yet vaccinated but are obviously much less likely to get seriously ill. But there is bound to be some concern about this in the UK and Ireland and beyond.

Personally I dont expect anything like we've seen in the 1st and 2nd wave, but it could knock us back a bit whether in the UK or Ireland as if it spreads in the UK it will spread in Ireland.

robinph

bilston wrote: »

Cases are going to start rising in the UK again, and possibly quite sharply, probably by early June.

But that shouldn't be a surprise. The question is what impact will this have on the hospitals. The vaccines appear to be pretty effective against this new variant so the issue may be more around the under 40s who aren't yet vaccinated but are obviously much less likely to get seriously ill. But there is bound to be some concern about this in the UK and Ireland and beyond.

Personally I dont expect anything like we've seen in the 1st and 2nd wave, but it could knock us back a bit whether in the UK or Ireland as if it spreads in the UK it will spread in Ireland.

The number of people who this rise in cases can happen among is reducing by half a million a day, not exact science as the 1st/ 2nd doses are currently still mostly 2nds but it's still a massive number. There are less people to be infected, less people who will get ill and less people who will end up in hospital or die.

Yes, as restrictions are lifted and the population which is least vaccinated gets out more and does more mingling than other sectors anyway its potentially a bit of a problem, but don't see much sign of cases rising nationally. There are localised problems with lower vaccination rates and compliance with existing restrictions. Don't think there is anything to indicate that is wide spread across the country though. Cases continue to be too low across most of the country.

FarmerBrowne

A handful of deaths reported in the UK as a result of the Indian variant, real question is were these people vaccinated, if so then that is a huge problem.

bilston

FarmerBrowne wrote: »

A handful of deaths reported in the UK as a result of the Indian variant, real question is were these people vaccinated, if so then that is a huge problem.

Not sure, but I did read that 15 residents in a care home were infected with this variant last week, and 4 ended up in hospital and were all discharged in a day or so and did not develop severe disease. They had all received their second vaccine dose the week before. So given they would likely all have weak immune systems that is potentially encouraging.

brickster69

Indian variant to take over in the UK shortly. The good thing is with the amount of surge testing and sequencing going on they have caught it early. The problem will be for other countries where it is already going to be circulating without the same amounts of testing, which means it will spread undetected quicker.

brickster69

Patients in hospital 991 first time below 1000 since 14 Sep 2020. Hopefully we see no uptick in that.

ongarite

Indian variant is prevalent in certain UK cities due to demographics & vaccine hesitancy.
Vaccine take-up among non-white population is at worrying low levels IMO.

Its important to find out why take-up is so low & get them vaccinated ASAP.

JP Liz V1

Has the UK not closed off flights to and from India, any restrictions?

bilston

Oddly while the number of cases of Indian variant cases rise, the overall number of cases is holding stable or even going down in the UK. Almost as though the Indian variant is replacing the existing variants rather than adding to them. Early days though.

There is also a potential debate coming down the line. If the people who are being admitted to hospital are mainly those who for whatever reason haven't been vaccinated ven though they are eligible, then the majority of the population who have taken up the vaccine may rightly get upset if restrictions are reimposed on them and unfortunately given the disparity in vaccine take up within various communities in the UK, that debate could have quite dark undertones.

Enzokk

Cummings before a Select Committee about the response. So who do we believe? The person who weaponised lies for Brexit, or the current government who is, well liars as well.

Johnson didn't take the pandemic seriously apparently, was joking about getting injected with the virus because it was nothing to worry about. Makes sense when you remember him shaking hands with people in hospital. Guess he changed his mind while lying in ICU.


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