The UK response - Part II - read OP

It's starting to look like the UK may have to slow reopening, cases over 4000 for the first time since early April and R number over 1, hopefully vaccines will keep most out of hospital but probably a bit more caution required for a little while.

brickster69

Peregrinus wrote: »

Interesting. It suggests that 10% of those who are hospitalised with coronavirus have been fully vaccinated. (Presumably, of the remaining 90%, a fair chunk have had one shot of vaccine, but caught the virus anyway.)

Which is just an illustration of what we knew already - the vaccine provides a high degree of protection, but not total protection. A fully vaccinated person can not only contract Covid, but can contract it badly enough to need hospitalisation.

Not really. 70% of the 10% only had one dose. Seen as 95% of those who go to hospital are over 65 suggests most people who refused a vaccine have been admitted to hospital.

Wolf359f

brickster69 wrote: »

Not really. 70% of the 10% only had one dose. Seen as 95% of those who go to hospital are over 65 suggests most people who refused a vaccine have been admitted to hospital.

So only 5% of those hospitalised in the UK have been under 65? Or is that the updated figures with the vaccination in full swing?

bilston

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

It's starting to look like the UK may have to slow reopening, cases over 4000 for the first time since early April and R number over 1, hopefully vaccines will keep most out of hospital but probably a bit more caution required for a little while.

I think the June 21st date will have to be delayed until all adults have had at least one jab...probably end of July/Early August, the question is whether they have to roll back on the easements. Hospitalisations will be the key and they are probably a week away from knowing what the story is there.

It does increasingly look like two vaccine doses will deal with this Indian Variant and will hopefully get things back to normal, but it will be the Autumn before all adults have had two doses in the UK. Will be even later in Ireland.

PommieBast

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

It's starting to look like the UK may have to slow reopening, cases over 4000 for the first time since early April and R number over 1, hopefully vaccines will keep most out of hospital but probably a bit more caution required for a little while.

Mother went into London today and she remarked about how lots of under-30s (i.e. unvaccinated) were close together on the tube without masks. :mad:

PopePalpatine

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

It's starting to look like the UK may have to slow reopening, cases over 4000 for the first time since early April and R number over 1, hopefully vaccines will keep most out of hospital but probably a bit more caution required for a little while.

I think it's been a couple of months since I last came across that term.

If you look at the map on the government site, the vast majority of areas sti have a very low number of cases, but a few have very high numbers.

It really looks like a case of needing to lock down a few areas, in particular around Bolton, but it’s whether or not the government want to go down the Andy Burnham rabbit hole of “why are you locking down the north and not London.

robinph

The map is currently showing a total of 89 active cases for the whole of the city I'm in with a population of just shy of half a million. Zoom into the next level of the map to see the more localised data, and it's all blanked out as the numbers are so low for privacy reasons.

And this is despite my city being one of the ones that had some of the Indian variant cases at the same time as Bolton and other places, and where the track and trace people were not provided with the follow up details for those cases. We seem to have dodged that bullet though and numbers keep on falling locally.

robinph

robinph wrote: »

The map is currently showing a total of 89 active cases for the whole of the city I'm in with a population of just shy of half a million. Zoom into the next level of the map to see the more localised data, and it's all blanked out as the numbers are so low for privacy reasons.

And this is despite my city being one of the ones that had some of the Indian variant cases at the same time as Bolton and other places, and where the track and trace people were not provided with the follow up details for those cases. We seem to have dodged that bullet though and numbers keep on falling locally.

Where my parents are has a seven day rate of less than 13/100,000 people. I think Bolton, or parts of it, are over 800.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

JP Liz V1

The Indian variant is "taking over" as the dominant COVID strain in the UK as cases rise across the country, a clinical epidemiologist has warned.

"There's no doubt about the Indian variant taking over, the proportion of sequences in many places in the UK show the Indian variant is 60% of cases," Dr Deepti Gurdasani, also a senior lecturer in machine learning at Queen Mary University of London, told Sky News.

"We've been hearing it's quite localised but it isn't, it's been rising rapidly in all regions - at different levels, but we'll end up in the same place, it's not dropping anywhere."

Peregrinus

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

The Indian variant is "taking over" as the dominant COVID strain in the UK as cases rise across the country, a clinical epidemiologist has warned.

"There's no doubt about the Indian variant taking over, the proportion of sequences in many places in the UK show the Indian variant is 60% of cases," Dr Deepti Gurdasani, also a senior lecturer in machine learning at Queen Mary University of London, told Sky News.

"We've been hearing it's quite localised but it isn't, it's been rising rapidly in all regions - at different levels, but we'll end up in the same place, it's not dropping anywhere."

That's pretty much as expected, though. The more infectious variant of any virus will tend to crowd out the less infectious. And it will happen everywhere - not just in the UK. And it will happen whether overall numbers of infected people are rising, stable or declining.

What you have to hope is that the more infectious variant is not also the more lethal.

Whatsisname

It's literally dropping in Bolton, the apparent epicentre of this variant. Some of these "experts" need to take a day off.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton

brickster69

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

The Indian variant is "taking over" as the dominant COVID strain in the UK as cases rise across the country, a clinical epidemiologist has warned.

"There's no doubt about the Indian variant taking over, the proportion of sequences in many places in the UK show the Indian variant is 60% of cases," Dr Deepti Gurdasani, also a senior lecturer in machine learning at Queen Mary University of London, told Sky News.

"We've been hearing it's quite localised but it isn't, it's been rising rapidly in all regions - at different levels, but we'll end up in the same place, it's not dropping anywhere."

Good job that those most at risk of death or going to hospital are fully vaccinated now. Got my second dose this morning, appointment at 11.30 got there at 11.15 all done by 11.25 and in the pub for Sunday lunch at midday.

afatbollix

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

The Indian variant is "taking over" as the dominant COVID strain in the UK as cases rise across the country, a clinical epidemiologist has warned.

"There's no doubt about the Indian variant taking over, the proportion of sequences in many places in the UK show the Indian variant is 60% of cases," Dr Deepti Gurdasani, also a senior lecturer in machine learning at Queen Mary University of London, told Sky News.

"We've been hearing it's quite localised but it isn't, it's been rising rapidly in all regions - at different levels, but we'll end up in the same place, it's not dropping anywhere."

Last summer it was a variant from a farm in Spain. Then the Kent one came about in time for Christmas and now you have the Indian.

They come out each time as say it's more transmissionable but each time you can see it's a social transmission.

Spanish in the summer - holidays and pubs were open.
Kent - Christmas where everyone went and met their grannys regardless of the rules.
Indian - Eid and other religious holidays.

Guess what the vaccinations work for them all.

Wolf359f

afatbollix wrote: »

Last summer it was a variant from a farm in Spain. Then the Kent one came about in time for Christmas and now you have the Indian.

They come out each time as say it's more transmissionable but each time you can see it's a social transmission.

Spanish in the summer - holidays and pubs were open.
Kent - Christmas where everyone went and met their grannys regardless of the rules.
Indian - Eid and other religious holidays.

Guess what the vaccinations work for them all.

I'm sure if we had adequate testing back in March/April 2019, the original strain would be just as transmissible or very comparable.

Mr.Wemmick

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Storm in a teacup?! I know many lying rags in the UK and Byline is not one of them.

The new appointment of Simon Bolton as interim CEO of NHS digital is rather eye raising. Bolton will join digital NHS in June straight from his role at Test and Trace. Yet again a senior appointment of someone with no expertise in health and coming from an area that failed spectacularly in the UK and was known for being secretive and non-transparent.

Under the current government, the mistrust people have for the planned changes in the NHS is quite valid.

Well, the storm in the teacup gets bigger and another rag speaks out. :rolleyes:

"Royal College of GPs wrote to NHS Digital urging it to better communicate with the public about the plans and their options for opting out.

Critics have voiced concerns over the NHS Digital plans, which would put the medical histories of more than 55 million patients into a database available to academic and commercial third parties for research and planning purposes."

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/30/gps-warn-plans-share-patient-data-third-parties-england

Peregrinus

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm sure if we had adequate testing back in March/April 2019, the original strain would be just as transmissible or very comparable.

The newer variants - or, at least, the ones we're paying particular attention to - are more transmissible (as in, they transmit more readily to other people, or they transmit faster, or both). That's why they represent a larger and larger proportion of new cases, and that's why we're paying particular attention to them.

There are other variants which are less transmissible, but - duh - they tend not to get transmitted, so we don't hear so much about them.

brickster69

Third wave starting. Indian variant going crazy. Shut the pubs for god's sake

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1399381414580297738

afatbollix

1 death tho.

Why close everything for something that's not killing anymore?

The NHS is not overwelmed. Turns out these young people can deal with Covid.

Theboinkmaster

letigofrozen wrote: »

Exactly, they can let it rip now

1 death and only 800 in hospital, 80% with one dose, do your best covid.

But deaths lag hospital admissions that lag daily cases...

I’d be more interested in the hospital admission details - what is the profile of being going into hospital

brickster69

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

But deaths lag hospital admissions that lag daily cases...

I’d be more interested in the hospital admission details - what is the profile of being going into hospital

Don't worry about that. Be more concerned about all the nutcases who headed off to Spain without needing to be vaccinated or a have a test to enter. :eek:

northy_north

brickster69 wrote: »

Third wave starting. Indian variant going crazy. Shut the pubs for god's sake

But... why? Around my parts, the vaccine is old news. I'm 35 and getting my second does next week. The oldies have been done for yonks. A 20 year old neighbour got it the week before last. The age rates vary by region, pretty much all adults here are eligible.

Now we've been told the vaccine works. And the past few months certainly bare that out. So why shut the pubs or lock up? The local hospital covid ward is empty. It doesn't matter if it's spreading and not causing an issue. We don't do so when the seasonal flu comes around, which is what covid pretty much is now.

brickster69

Sky News going into meltdown

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1399743551664164868

Peregrinus

northy_north wrote: »

But... why? Around my parts, the vaccine is old news. I'm 35 and getting my second does next week. The oldies have been done for yonks. A 20 year old neighbour got it the week before last. The age rates vary by region, pretty much all adults here are eligible.

Now we've been told the vaccine works. And the past few months certainly bare that out. So why shut the pubs or lock up? The local hospital covid ward is empty. It doesn't matter if it's spreading and not causing an issue. We don't do so when the seasonal flu comes around, which is what covid pretty much is now.

Roughly 48% of the UK population have had two doses; some of those would not yet be considered fully protected, because the second dose was less than two weeks ago. A further 25% have had one dose but not yet the second.

That's not thought to be sufficient coverage for herd immunity so, yes, there's still room for a further wave of infections, though it should be considerably smaller than the last wave. In about 12 weeks, 70%+ of the population should be fully vaccinated; the epidemiologists will feel a lot more comfortable then than they do now.

BonnieSituation

Will there be a bank holiday delay?

What was it like in May?

JP Liz V1

No deaths since start of pandemic in UK

NIMAN

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

No deaths since start of pandemic in UK

If only!

Lumen

Peregrinus wrote: »

Roughly 48% of the UK population have had two doses; some of those would not yet be considered fully protected, because the second dose was less than two weeks ago. A further 25% have had one dose but not yet the second.

That's not thought to be sufficient coverage for herd immunity so, yes, there's still room for a further wave of infections, though it should be considerably smaller than the last wave. In about 12 weeks, 70%+ of the population should be fully vaccinated; the epidemiologists will feel a lot more comfortable then than they do now.

Crude maths and weak assumptions warning....

If the R0 is 2.4, and half the population is immune, then with no restrictions and normal behaviour (no masks or social distancing) the R will drop to 1.2.

That's barely over the rate required to sustain infection. Add on the people with naturally acquired immunity and you see the epidemic collapse. This is what we saw in Israel - first doses over 55% plus a few basic restrictions was enough to crush it, because "it" was original Covid.

If the Indian variant is 50% more transmissible then it raises R0 to 3.6, and 50% immunity only gets you down to around R=2. This is why the UK is so tightly balanced - they need restrictions (or equivalent personal responsibility) on indoor activity to keep infection under control.

70% coverage with Indian variant plus basic precautions gets you back below R=1 and the thing peters out, albeit slowly. Without local lockdowns they would focus on pushing vaccinations hard in the hotspots, but even without those fear does some of the work and the spikes tend to die out as they run out of high-risk susceptible bodies.

Outside of the hotspots I expect what we'll see is cases continuing to drop towards zero. The thing with exponential growth is that it takes ages to get going, so I don't think there's much risk to the areas which currently have low case numbers, even if the Indian variant is seeded there. By the time the numbers are up to concerning levels the vaccination rollout should squash them back down again.

12 weeks is a long time though.

S.M.B.

I'm not quite in the "the Indian variant is running rampant, let's close the pubs" camp but I am more in the "the Indian variant is concerning, let's not lift all restrictions in three weeks" camp.

Chris_5339762

There was a post on here somewhere yesterday that says that the R0 of the original was, I think, 3, Kent was 4, and the Indian was as high as 6. Big error bars. Possibly the Vietnam is higher, they don't know yet.

But the vaccines work on all of them.