The UK response - Part II - read OP

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mmm. You've only proved half your thesis here. You've pointed to populist leaders appealing to international comparisons, but you haven't pointed to other leaders not doing so.

My suggestion is that any government will highlight international comparisons that reflect well on them, or appear to do so, and will try not to draw attention to international comparisons which don't.

Not sure what I would need to proof this. Anytime there is a chart with international comparisons it could be said this is exactly like what Trump and Johnson did. I guess the context is important, has any of those leaders admitted their shortcomings? Maybe that is a better way to look at it, has there been some sort of recognition that they have to be better for the next spike or pandemic or are they too busy congratulating themselves on the job they are doing?

theological wrote: »

A perfect example of this is above. A poster makes a perfectly rational point that the UK seems to be doing a better job at managing the spread of new cases and testing more of the population, and we have Enzokk claim that this is somehow not notable.

Why is it not notable? Because Enzokk doesn't want to accept the conclusion because it doesn't fit with their agenda.

The reality is that the UK has managed to contain the spread of the virus. New daily cases on the KCL tracker are at the same level as they were at the start of July. I would hope for a further decline. The UK R is at 0.9 which means hopefully it will continue to decline.

The fact is that the UK is doing better than most other European countries at this stage in the pandemic.

@Joe_Public: You live in Ireland however, where's your concern about what is happening at home? Look at your posts on this forum for posterity.

Grow up. I didn't say it wasn't notable so not sure why you are saying this. Taking a snapshot of what is happening right now and trying to claim one side is doing better at this particular moment is really childish. The point I was making is that we have had a spike in cases recently that lead to the lockdown, so logically you will see a spike in the amount of cases per 1 million. You don't need a degree to figure this out.

theological

Enzokk wrote: »

Grow up. I didn't say it wasn't notable so not sure why you are saying this. Taking a snapshot of what is happening right now and trying to claim one side is doing better at this particular moment is really childish. The point I was making is that we have had a spike in cases recently that lead to the lockdown, so logically you will see a spike in the amount of cases per 1 million. You don't need a degree to figure this out.

It is only childish when it doesn't suit your argument. This thread is about the UK response to coronavirus, therefore it is notable to look at how the UK is doing at the moment.

Are there things that could be done better? Sure. The UK shouldn't be where it was at the start of July, but comparatively it is doing better than many other countries at the moment. That is the balanced conclusion.

robinph

robinph wrote: »

I don't think it was care home deaths, but there was a change they made to the counting relatively early on around about the peak when they started adding in some new count that hadn't been included beforet.

I think it was back in May that they started adding in care homes and the community. There was a jump of around two thousand deaths iirc that brought the numbers up to date.

Dave0301

theological wrote: »

It is only childish when it doesn't suit your argument. This thread is about the UK response to coronavirus, therefore it is notable to look at how the UK is doing at the moment.

Are there things that could be done better? Sure. The UK shouldn't be where it was at the start of July, but comparatively it is doing better than many other countries at the moment. That is the balanced conclusion.

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1293922261729148930

You can't do worse comparatively, if you don't post updates about new cases.

I am just being facetious :pac:

It does make me wonder if the large cluster in Northampton may have something to do with it.

theological

Dave0301 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1293922261729148930

You can't do worse comparatively, if you don't post updates about new cases.

I am just being facetious :pac:

It does make me wonder if the large cluster in Northampton may have something to do with it.

I rely on the KCL data because it is more complete, and probably more accurate.

There is a of 200 case reduction in the daily infection rate according to their data since last week. The number of symptomatic cases is lower than it was this time last month. I suspect the increase in the government figures is down to more people getting tested.

Let's hope it continues.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

Not sure what I would need to proof this. Anytime there is a chart with international comparisons it could be said this is exactly like what Trump and Johnson did. I guess the context is important, has any of those leaders admitted their shortcomings? Maybe that is a better way to look at it, has there been some sort of recognition that they have to be better for the next spike or pandemic or are they too busy congratulating themselves on the job they are doing?

If you're arguing that populist leaders are doing X while other leaders are not, you can't prove your case simply by pointing to populist leaders doing X; you also have to point to other leaders not doing it.

So you need to produce examples of non-populist leaders who would come well out of international comparisons but who eschew or downplay those international comparisons.

Dave0301

Just a few Covid-19 tests were double counted in the testing figures...to the tune of 1.3 million or so.

Taken off late last night which is rather sneaky. Haven't read much about it, but assume it is to do with trying to hit the early testing targets they set, as well as including posted testing kits.

theological

theological wrote: »

Just received the letter for the ONS survey to take a sample. Will be interesting to find out what's involved.

In case anyone was wondering how this is progressing. It took me a week of trying to get through to them to get registered the lines were so busy. That isn't exactly great optics for trying to get research done and trying to get willing participants.

Registered today, a healthcare worker will call to schedule in the first bookings. They want 4 samples over 4 weeks.

They apparently will give us vouchers £50 each for the first sample, and £25 each for the subsequent. It isn't clear what the vouchers are going to be for and there's no detail so it could be anything

Enzokk

Dave0301 wrote: »

Just a few Covid-19 tests were double counted in the testing figures...to the tune of 1.3 million or so.

Taken off late last night which is rather sneaky. Haven't read much about it, but assume it is to do with trying to hit the early testing targets they set, as well as including posted testing kits.

Here is a story to confirm this,

Government quietly drops 1.3m Covid tests from England tally


What grates with me, we would have been discussing testing numbers and others would have been telling us how great a job they are doing because at the time they had lots of tests done and look at other countries not testing that much. When you calculate it, that is about 14 000 tests per day that they have taken off the statistics. We have not even hit that mark in tests per day.

The revised test count comes after up to 750,000 unused coronavirus testing kits manufactured by the diagnostics company Randox were recalled from care homes and individuals because of concerns about safety standards.

The recall was ordered by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) and the UK government instructed care homes and members of the public to immediately stop using Randox testing kits in mid-July amid concerns over their sterility.

Add these 1.3m to the 750 000 unusable tests and that is 2m tests not done or kits not fit for purpose. But the UK is doing better than us in infections per 1m people, 14 to 16 so there is that.

Bit cynical

Enzokk wrote: »

But the UK is doing better than us in infections per 1m people, 14 to 16 so there is that.

Lower infections is not necessarily "better" since, if you can protect the older and vulnerable, immunity is built up in the healthy population and the majority don't get a serious illness.

nacho libre

Bit cynical wrote: »

Lower infections is not necessarily "better" since, if you can protect the older and vulnerable, immunity is built up in the healthy population and the majority don't get a serious illness.

It is better for the vulnerable who get longer to live as a consequence of the containment policy. The other strategy is far too risky. With the vast majority of the UK population not having had covid19, containment until a vaccine is found is the better strategy than going with herd immunity in the healthy. Johnson realised this back in March.

Dave0301

Enzokk wrote: »

What grates with me, we would have been discussing testing numbers and others would have been telling us how great a job they are doing because at the time they had lots of tests done and look at other countries not testing that much. When you calculate it, that is about 14 000 tests per day that they have taken off the statistics. We have not even hit that mark in tests per day.



Add these 1.3m to the 750 000 unusable tests and that is 2m tests not done or kits not fit for purpose. But the UK is doing better than us in infections per 1m people, 14 to 16 so there is that.

I am surprised that so little has been made of this in the UK media. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough, but it seems to have slipped under the radar due to A Level results and quarantine from France.

In the grand scheme of things, it is clear that they have testing capacity to handle the situation, but it is the duplicitous nature of the Tories that gets me. It would be great to think it was just an honest mistake, but 1.3 million isn't just a simple error.

Dave0301

Seems to be a growing consensus that Covid-19 cases are stable across the UK at the moment - link.

That is shown in ONS figures as well as the the Covid Symptom Study app run by company ZOE and researchers at King's College London. Increases in Govt figures is due to increased testing in virus hotspots. Long may it last, but i have my doubts about it holding as seen in other countries.

I would be interested to know why France & Spain have seen a quicker return to higher cases than some other EU countries. Is it to due with them having more tourists traveling there?

bob mcbob

Dave0301 wrote: »

Seems to be a growing consensus that Covid-19 cases are stable across the UK at the moment - link.

That is shown in ONS figures as well as the the Covid Symptom Study app run by company ZOE and researchers at King's College London. Increases in Govt figures is due to increased testing in virus hotspots. Long may it last, but i have my doubts about it holding as seen in other countries.

I would be interested to know why France & Spain have seen a quicker return to higher cases than some other EU countries. Is it to due with them having more tourists traveling there?

It could just be a matter of timing.

France re-opened bars and restaurants at the beginning of June whereas England did it on the 4th of July. So in terms of easing of lockdown France is roughly a month ahead. If you look at the figures for France 6 weeks after lifting the lockdown, they were averaging 600 cases per day and were stable but that is the point that cases started to take off.

Six weeks after the lifting of lockdown in early July, in the UK numbers are over 1000 average.

bob mcbob

bob mcbob wrote: »

It could just be a matter of timing.

France re-opened bars and restaurants at the beginning of June whereas England did it on the 4th of July. So in terms of easing of lockdown France is roughly a month ahead. If you look at the figures for France 6 weeks after lifting the lockdown, they were averaging 600 cases per day and were stable but that is the point that cases started to take off.

Six weeks after the lifting of lockdown in early July, in the UK numbers are over 1000 average.

This pretty much falls in line with what every government has been saying I believe. That easing restrictions will mean an increase in cases, but if the cases get too high, local restrictions will be enforced.

This is pretty much our way of life now until a vaccine is effectively rolled out.

S.M.B.

Dave0301 wrote: »

I am surprised that so little has been made of this in the UK media. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough, but it seems to have slipped under the radar due to A Level results and quarantine from France.

In the grand scheme of things, it is clear that they have testing capacity to handle the situation, but it is the duplicitous nature of the Tories that gets me. It would be great to think it was just an honest mistake, but 1.3 million isn't just a simple error.

I assume the lack of surprise is due to the fact that anyone who cared knew the numbers were always going to be incorrect from when they started ramping up to hit the big target.

gmisk

The uk press seem to be making a massive deal of this deadline with regards people coming back from France?
There estimating 500k holiday makers coming back?
I am guessing the 14 day quarantine isn't going to be policed or enforced when they are back in the UK so what's the big deal?

Dave0301

So it is beginning to look like PHE is on the way out if tomorrow's exclusive in the Telegraph is to be believed.

Some info below, and link to the article here. It is fairly critical of PHE and its chief executive.

Public Health England (PHE) is to be scrapped and replaced by a new body specifically designed to protect the country against a pandemic by early next month, the Telegraph can disclose.

It comes weeks after Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, complained that the country's response to the pandemic had been sluggish, in remarks which were interpreted as a swipe at PHE.

A senior minister told the Telegraph: "We want to bring together the science and the scale in one new body so we can do all we can to stop a second coronavirus spike this autumn.

"The National Institute for Health Protection’s goal will be simple: to ensure that Britain is one of the best equipped countries in the world to fight the pandemic."

The institute’s new chief executive will report both to ministers at the Department of Health and Social Care, and to Professor Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer, giving ministers direct control over its response to pandemics.

Mr Hancock is seeking someone with experience of both health policy and the private sector to run it. Baroness Harding, the former chief executive of TalkTalk who heads up NHS Test and Trace, is tipped for the role.

The change will be "effective" within the next month but it will take until the spring to formally complete the organisational change of breaking up a large organisation.

A source said: "It will be in place by September."

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former Tory Cabinet minister, welcomed the news, saying: "The one thing consistent about Public Health England is that almost everything it has touched has failed."

Someone had to take the blame for a poor initial response to the outbreak, and you can be sure it wasn't going to be anyone in the sitting cabinet.

The potential appointment of Dido Harding is beyond me. I still don't see what expertise she has that warranted her role in Test & Trace, let alone this.

theological

bob mcbob wrote: »

It could just be a matter of timing.

France re-opened bars and restaurants at the beginning of June whereas England did it on the 4th of July. So in terms of easing of lockdown France is roughly a month ahead. If you look at the figures for France 6 weeks after lifting the lockdown, they were averaging 600 cases per day and were stable but that is the point that cases started to take off.

Six weeks after the lifting of lockdown in early July, in the UK numbers are over 1000 average.

Not fully accurate. The incidence of the virus is in decline according to the KCL data. It dropped by 200 cases a day between the last value.

It is possible that the higher number of positive test results are because more people are being tested.

You'd need to do more work to explain that Britain will follow France. The lockdown easing in France was done in phases like in Britain. It would also require analysis of what was eased when in both places and behavioural analysis of what happened since. Lockdown easing in the UK took place gradually from May, not from July.

Professor Moriarty

Dave0301 wrote: »

So it is beginning to look like PHE is on the way out if tomorrow's exclusive in the Telegraph is to be believed.

Some info below, and link to the article here. It is fairly critical of PHE and its chief executive.



Someone had to take the blame for a poor initial response to the outbreak, and you can be sure it wasn't going to be anyone in the sitting cabinet.

The potential appointment of Dido Harding is beyond me. I still don't see what expertise she has that warranted her role in Test & Trace, let alone this.

She's a businesswoman and a Tory so what's your problem? Also, her husband, MP John Penrose, was a prime mover in scrapping the PHE. He also wants to scrap the NHS . Not seeing your issue here.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

She's a businesswoman and a Tory so what's your problem? Also, her husband, MP John Penrose, was a prime mover in scrapping the PHE. He also wants to scrap the NHS . Not seeing your issue here.

She’s also been the chair of the NHS Improvement board since 2017.

Joe_ Public

There was a poll appeared last week or week before, not sure you gov or survation but one of them anyway, that suggested the government would not be blamed in the event of a second wave. So their constant blame shifting and gaslighting, while palpably cynical and transparent on the surface, does appear to be working somewhat. And as we know, there are those who will defend this chronically useless government no matter what depths it sinks to. There are thousands of people losing their jobs at the moment, including in civil service and administration, yet the architects of the uks failed pandemic response sail blithely along, umtroubled by conscience or thorny questions of accountability for their actions. Find it quite astonishing and bizarre but it is what it is.

Professor Moriarty

Aegir wrote: »

She’s also been the chair of the NHS Improvement board since 2017.

She got the job now because hubby helped dump the PHE and now she can get to work on helping him dump the NHS. Just another elitist Tory right winger.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

She got the job now because hubby helped dump the PHE and now she can get to work on helping him dump the NHS. Just another elitist Tory right winger.

Could you provide any evidence to back up your claim?

Professor Moriarty

Aegir wrote: »

Could you provide any evidence to back up your claim?

Which claim? That her husband wanted the NHE gone and wants the NHS disbanded? Fact. That she's a Tory? Fact. That she's from a privileged elite background? Fact. That she sat on the boards of various companies sucking up big fat wages? Fact. But look, she might be appointed by Cummings Johnson to enhance the NHS and to ensure that the poor have as equal access to health services as Tory elitists. Maybe she's a secret Marxist. That's probably it.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which claim? That her husband wanted the NHE gone and wants the NHS disbanded? Fact. That she's a Tory? Fact. That she's from a privileged elite background? Fact. That she sat on the boards of various companies sucking up big fat wages? Fact. But look, she might be appointed by Cummings Johnson to enhance the NHS and to ensure that the poor have as equal access to health services as Tory elitists. Maybe she's a secret Marxist. That's probably it.

My apologies, I took it that you were going to provide some form of debate.

I see now that You just wanted to rant

Professor Moriarty

Aegir wrote: »

My apologies, I took it that you were going to provide some form of debate.

I see now that You just wanted to rant

Feel free to argue my facts and my argument. Or ignore me. I don't care either way.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Feel free to argue my facts and my argument. Or ignore me. I don't care either way.

Yiu haven’t provided any facts, nor have you given an argument. You just went on a rant.

O'Neill

https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1294885867321004032

Pretty reckless no? He could have at least added 'safely' in there.

Professor Moriarty

Aegir wrote: »

Yiu haven’t provided any facts, nor have you given an argument. You just went on a rant.

Nothing at all to say so? Grand.