Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Referendum was held by him as a cheap and cynical political stunt : he wasn't remotely interested in the British public's opinion on anything. Problem was, once the result came in, he couldn't admit the referendum was a cynical stunt. He had to pretend it was real and 'democratic'.

It was an attempt to shut the "bastards" Eurosceptics up for once and for all. Unfortunately, he didn't foresee the lies from the "bastards" Eurosceptics and the latent nationalism in the population. Plus he completely mishandled the Remain campaign. One simple political misjudgement can have dire consequences.

20silkcut

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was an attempt to shut the "bastards" Eurosceptics up for once and for all. Unfortunately, he didn't foresee the lies from the "bastards" Eurosceptics and the latent nationalism in the population. Plus he completely mishandled the Remain campaign. One simple political misjudgement can have dire consequences.

Was it in campaigning for the 2015 election that he announced an in/out referendum by 2017?

I remember looking on with disbelief at the time.
I don’t think english nationalism was latent it was very obvious it was beamed into our living rooms every second summer in soccer tournaments etc and the hostility to all things EU was obvious for years.
I worked in the U.K. in the early 2000’s,in a red wall area ,and it was blatantly obvious in those days the sense of lost identity and xenophobia.
No other British prime minister would have touched this issue. Absolutely none.
It’s up there with holding a referendum on whether to abolish taxation.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was an attempt to shut the "bastards" Eurosceptics up for once and for all. Unfortunately, he didn't foresee the lies from the "bastards" Eurosceptics and the latent nationalism in the population. Plus he completely mishandled the Remain campaign. One simple political misjudgement can have dire consequences.

Cameron's big mistake was to go to the EU before the vote looking for more exceptions to add to the ones hey already had. The EU gave him little or nothing, and it looked like he got a flea in his ear. Not a good start for a pro EU campaign.

This of course got the reaction - 'Is that all?' If the EU was that good, why ask for more? Well, it worked in Scotland, where he offered extra devolution, which was not delivered, and even what they had has since been further reduced.

He was a chancer of the worst type - privileged and insulated from his gambles.

Professor Moriarty

20silkcut wrote: »

Was it in campaigning for the 2015 election that he announced an in/out referendum by 2017?

I remember looking on with disbelief at the time.
I don’t think english nationalism was latent it was very obvious it was beamed into our living rooms every second summer in soccer tournaments etc and the hostility to all things EU was obvious for years.
I worked in the U.K. in the early 2000’s,in a red wall area ,and it was blatantly obvious in those days the sense of lost identity and xenophobia.
No other British prime minister would have touched this issue. Absolutely none.
It’s up there with holding a referendum on whether to abolish taxation.

Yes it was apparent in soccer but it could be argued that was just sport. I don't think very many commentators and politicians thought nationalism would see Brexit over the line. Even Farage and Johnson assumed they would lose. Such was Cameron's ineptitude.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Cameron's big mistake was to go to the EU before the vote looking for more exceptions to add to the ones hey already had. The EU gave him little or nothing, and it looked like he got a flea in his ear. Not a good start for a pro EU campaign.

This of course got the reaction - 'Is that all?' If the EU was that good, why ask for more? Well, it worked in Scotland, where he offered extra devolution, which was not delivered, and even what they had has since been further reduced.

He was a chancer of the worst type - privileged and insulated from his gambles.

He was trying to mollify the anti-European right-wingers by asking the EU for derogations. But they were never going to be satisfied. In that respect I have a little sympathy for him as Major had the same problem. The bastards won, of course, and here we are with a very right-wing populist Tory government with a thumping majority.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He was trying to mollify the anti-European right-wingers by asking the EU for derogations. But they were never going to be satisfied. In that respect I have a little sympathy for him as Major had the same problem. The bastards won, of course, and here we are with a very right-wing populist Tory government with a thumping majority.

That can lead to civil unrest as seen in previous Governments - like the poll tax, miners strike, and the riots in London and Croydon.

Given the expected downturn in economy , employment, FOM, immigration for cheap labour, etc. etc., One cannot expect anything else if the current Gov does not mitigate the forthcoming tsunami of despair.

I doubt they will.

Jizique

20silkcut wrote: »

Was it in campaigning for the 2015 election that he announced an in/out referendum by 2017?

I remember looking on with disbelief at the time.
I don’t think english nationalism was latent it was very obvious it was beamed into our living rooms every second summer in soccer tournaments etc and the hostility to all things EU was obvious for years.
I worked in the U.K. in the early 2000’s,in a red wall area ,and it was blatantly obvious in those days the sense of lost identity and xenophobia.
No other British prime minister would have touched this issue. Absolutely none.
It’s up there with holding a referendum on whether to abolish taxation.

He never expected to win a majority - he expected to need the LibDems again, and a ref would never have been in the agreed policy document, so he felt safe putting it in the manifesto; once the won the surprise majority it was game over

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was an attempt to shut the "bastards" Eurosceptics up for once and for all. Unfortunately, he didn't foresee the lies from the "bastards" Eurosceptics and the latent nationalism in the population. Plus he completely mishandled the Remain campaign. One simple political misjudgement can have dire consequences.

It should be added he led the 'Remain' campaign as a strong Eurosceptic, maybe even a Europhobe. He was in no position to defend the EU once his blasted referendum campaign was underway. He didn't like the EU and wasn't a fan of it.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

It should be added he led the 'Remain' campaign as a strong Eurosceptic, maybe even a Europhobe. He was in no position to defend the EU once his blasted referendum campaign was underway. He didn't like the EU and wasn't a fan of it.

Corbyn was even worse. On reflection, Remain hadn't a hope

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

It should be added he led the 'Remain' campaign as a strong Eurosceptic, maybe even a Europhobe. He was in no position to defend the EU once his blasted referendum campaign was underway. He didn't like the EU and wasn't a fan of it.

And May was on the Remain side only because she wanted to Remain Home Sec. She was no fan of FOM which was a cornerstone of he EU. Also she could not campaign for toffees.

Peregrinus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Interestingly, 59% of people in NI would prefer a border in the Irish Sea. 41% would prefer a border with the Republic.

Although that question presupposes that they must have at least one border. But this is not a law of nature; NI must have at least one border because, and only because, the ERG insists on it.

I'm pretty confident that if a third option, neither a sea border nor a land border, were added it would vastly more popular than either of the two options actually offered.

CelticRambler

Speaking of borders, there's an opinion piece in the Guardian today that reflects what I've been hearing from my (limited, non-random :pac: ) Welsh contacts:

Though I always saw Wales as a distinct nation, I have never spent so much time thinking about the border before. For most of my life it has felt porous: now it is not so.

Covid-19 has given Wales a glimpse of what self-determination and autonomy could look like, and it’s inspiring. In times of great fear and uncertainty, having politicians that you feel you can trust is no small thing, and is not easily forgotten.

While Covid-19 may be the "patient zero" that introduced the independence infection, an economically catastrophic Brexit could well be the super spreader event that elevates it to an epidemic.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Although that question presupposes that they must have at least one border. But this is not a law of nature; NI must have at least one border because, and only because, the ERG insists on it.

I'm pretty confident that if a third option, neither a sea border nor a land border, were added it would vastly more popular than either of the two options actually offered.

Well, NI did have a say on having no borders in 2016 and 44% voted to impose a border. Plus the DUP are adamant that there can be no border on the Irish Sea. So, it depends on what you mean by "vastly more popular". No doubt, in a UK wide poll, a large majority would be happy to see NI do its own thing. However, within NI, there isn't any such large majority.

Peregrinus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, NI did have a say on having no borders in 2016 and 44% voted to impose a border.

We can't say that. Some or most of the 44% may well have believed the Leaver line that talk of Brexit leading to a hard border was "Project Fear".

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Plus the DUP are adamant that there can be no border on the Irish Sea. So, it depends on what you mean by "vastly more popular".

This would be the same DUP that secured 28% of the vote at the most recent assembly election? If so, I don't think we can take their policy stance as being representative of the "vast majority" of NI voters. Besides, their policy stance is to oppose a sea border, not to advocate a land border. The UK government has always had "no hard border in Ireland" as one of its red lines, and the DUP has never opposed that. You could oppose both borders and still vote for the DUP (though you would be a little unrealistic in doing so, I think.)

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No doubt, in a UK wide poll, a large majority would be happy to see NI do its own thing. However, within NI, there isn't any such large majority.

Within NI, a majority oppose Brexit on any terms, and I would be reasonably confident that a larger majority would take the view that, if Brexit is to happen, it should happen on terms that do not involve a a hardening either of NI's sea border or of its land border.

But nobody in England gives a stuff about what NI wants. The ERG insists that at least one of NI's borders must be hardened. Since not hardening the land border is a UK government red line and a primary objective of the EU, it's the sea border that gets hardened.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

Speaking of borders, there's an opinion piece in the Guardian today that reflects what I've been hearing from my (limited, non-random :pac: ) Welsh contacts:

While Covid-19 may be the "patient zero" that introduced the independence infection, an economically catastrophic Brexit could well be the super spreader event that elevates it to an epidemic.

I just don't see it to be honest. Scotland and NI both voted Remain by 62% and 55% respectively. Wales was happy to vote Leave with England so there isn't the impetus of being ridden roughshod by the English there.

There's definitely a Welsh cultural identity and ethnic group along with their ancient Celtic tongue but Welsh nationalists never seem to make sufficient inroads to suggest that they're a force to be reckoned with.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

We can't say that. Some or most of the 44% may well have believed the Leaver line that talk of Brexit leading to a hard border was "Project Fear".

We can say that. The most NI recent poll asking how you would vote in a second referendum showed that 38% would vote leave. In fact, 35% would be happy to crash out.

This would be the same DUP that secured 28% of the vote at the most recent assembly election? If so, I don't think we can take their policy stance as being representative of the "vast majority" of NI voters. Besides, their policy stance is to oppose a sea border, not to advocate a land border. The UK government has always had "no hard border in Ireland" as one of its red lines, and the DUP has never opposed that. You could oppose both borders and still vote for the DUP (though you would be a little unrealistic in doing so, I think.)

I think you're mixed up there. I never suggested that the DUP had a "vast majority". Quite the opposite in fact. However, the DUP does represent a significant minority which means that an Irish Sea border cannot be "vastly popular". Also, wrt to the Assembley elections - and people's reasons for voting in those differ frome GEs, you must factor in that the UUP and TUV got 16% between them. So Unionist parties got 44% of that vote. Which again indicates that any border that threatens NI's place in the UK will have a large minority vehemently opposed.

Within NI, a majority oppose Brexit on any terms, and I would be reasonably confident that a larger majority would take the view that, if Brexit is to happen, it should happen on terms that do not involve a a hardening either of NI's sea border or of its land border.

Yes but, from a Unionist perspective, it's more nuanced. They have many choices. They predominantly voted Leave. Now they may have to decide to relinquish some ties with the mainland in order to protect their economy. Or close the border with the Republic to maintain existing ties with the mainland. Or hope the UK crashes out and dumps the GFA. Or the UK decides on a BRINO. Or some hybrid version of these options. In all of this, they have very little power. But that doesn't mean they want to diminish any current connection with the UK.

But nobody in England gives a stuff about what NI wants. The ERG insists that at least one of NI's borders must be hardened. Since not hardening the land border is a UK government red line and a primary objective of the EU, it's the sea border that gets hardened

NI is a pawn. It depends on how this populist, nationalist, right wing Tory government chooses to play the game. Based on evidence to date, anything at all could happen.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Scotland and NI both voted Remain by 62% and 55% respectively. Wales was happy to vote Leave with England so there isn't the impetus of being ridden roughshod by the English there.

After-the-fact analysis indicated that it was the English in Wales (quite a sizeable demographic) who voted with England - somewhat like the English expats in Spain who, from the comfort of their EU lifestyle, also voted for Brexit.

What I find interesting is that up until the triggering of Art.50, I had never, ever, heard the topic of Welsh independence - or even significant autonomy - raised as as a talking point on any platform anywhere. The hard-core Welsh "nationalists" were content to exercise their nationalism in the local eisteddfod and by speaking Welsh in front of English tourists.

Now, though, I'm seeing and hearing more and more younger people with no particular nationalist tradition asking "WTF are the English in Westminster doing telling us how to run our country?"

To me, this is a parallel development to the growth of the non-sectarian vote in NI; and in both cases, I'd explain it as both groups having grown up in society where the EU did, in fact, have a greater - and beneficial - influence over their lives than the old Etonians in Westminster. However limited, both groups have also sipped from the cup of proportional representation and multi-party consensual governance, giving them a perspective on the Westminster tribal warfare not shared with the English.

On the old Etonian/ERG side of the fence, I would argue that they were (still are) so wrapped up in their Glorious Days of the Empire that they have failed to appreciate how the EU's "soft" influence on the regional populations was so much more of a threat than the much hyped curved banana regulations and fishing quotas.

For all kinds of reasons, I don't expect to see a fully independent Wales this side of the year 2100, but once Scotland and NI are gone from the Kingdom, I would expect to see the Principality demand, and be granted, a level of autonomy substantially more than the devolution the currently enjoy.

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

After-the-fact analysis indicated that it was the English in Wales (quite a sizeable demographic) who voted with England - somewhat like the English expats in Spain who, from the comfort of their EU lifestyle, also voted for Brexit.

What I find interesting is that up until the triggering of Art.50, I had never, ever, heard the topic of Welsh independence - or even significant autonomy - raised as as a talking point on any platform anywhere. The hard-core Welsh "nationalists" were content to exercise their nationalism in the local eisteddfod and by speaking Welsh in front of English tourists.

Now, though, I'm seeing and hearing more and more younger people with no particular nationalist tradition asking "WTF are the English in Westminster doing telling us how to run our country?"

To me, this is a parallel development to the growth of the non-sectarian vote in NI; and in both cases, I'd explain it as both groups having grown up in society where the EU did, in fact, have a greater - and beneficial - influence over their lives than the old Etonians in Westminster. However limited, both groups have also sipped from the cup of proportional representation and multi-party consensual governance, giving them a perspective on the Westminster tribal warfare not shared with the English.

On the old Etonian/ERG side of the fence, I would argue that they were (still are) so wrapped up in their Glorious Days of the Empire that they have failed to appreciate how the EU's "soft" influence on the regional populations was so much more of a threat than the much hyped curved banana regulations and fishing quotas.

For all kinds of reasons, I don't expect to see a fully independent Wales this side of the year 2100, but once Scotland and NI are gone from the Kingdom, I would expect to see the Principality demand, and be granted, a level of autonomy substantially more than the devolution the currently enjoy.

You would be surprised at how quickly things can change. Independance is polling at around the 30% range in Wales, which is where it was in Scotland 10 years ago.

You now even have the Welsh FM calling for the UK to become a voluntary association of sovereign nations.

we need radical reform of the UK, making it authentically a voluntary association of nations where sovereignty is held by each nation and then pooled for common purposes.

Wales still has a long way to go, and a solidly nationalist party would need to come to the fore in their national politcs to drive things forward, but Wales today is in a very similar position to where Scotland was 10-15 years ago. I can't really imagine Wales wanting to stick it out long term with England in an rUK if Scotland leaves.

Professor Moriarty

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You would be surprised at how quickly things can change. Independance is polling at around the 30% range in Wales, which is where it was in Scotland 10 years ago.

You now even have the Welsh FM calling for the UK to become a voluntary association of sovereign nations.



Wales still has a long way to go, and a solidly nationalist party would need to come to the fore in their national politcs to drive things forward, but Wales today is in a very similar position to where Scotland was 10-15 years ago. I can't really imagine Wales wanting to stick it out long term with England in an rUK if Scotland leaves.

I think it is a mixture of nationalism and economic practicalities. For Wales, and more especially Scotland, there is a definitive sense of national identity. A significant portion of that is being 'not English'. Welsh and Scottish nationalism is much less belligerent that English nationalism and so has a more benign view of a union of European nations. Factor in the perspective that, in the long term, their socioeconomic needs would be better served by not being under the thumb of an English government and there may well be a surge for independence in Wales.

View

Peregrinus wrote: »

Although that question presupposes that they must have at least one border. But this is not a law of nature; NI must have at least one border because, and only because, the ERG insists on it.

I'm pretty confident that if a third option, neither a sea border nor a land border, were added it would vastly more popular than either of the two options actually offered.

There is no such third option available to NI.

At this stage, the only way it might happen would be if the Oireachtas were stupid enough to vote us out of the EU and then, in the short few weeks remaining before the end of the year, negotiate and ratify a “mini-EU”/British Isles only Customs Union arrangement with the Brexiters, most of whom would go out of their way to be as awkward as possible about any request from Ireland for such an arrangement.

As such this is a political non-runner, even if weren’t utter economic and political stupidity for us to contemplate leaving the EU in favour of such an arrangement with the U.K.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

After-the-fact analysis indicated that it was the English in Wales (quite a sizeable demographic) who voted with England - somewhat like the English expats in Spain who, from the comfort of their EU lifestyle, also voted for Brexit.

What I find interesting is that up until the triggering of Art.50, I had never, ever, heard the topic of Welsh independence - or even significant autonomy - raised as as a talking point on any platform anywhere. The hard-core Welsh "nationalists" were content to exercise their nationalism in the local eisteddfod and by speaking Welsh in front of English tourists.

Now, though, I'm seeing and hearing more and more younger people with no particular nationalist tradition asking "WTF are the English in Westminster doing telling us how to run our country?"

To me, this is a parallel development to the growth of the non-sectarian vote in NI; and in both cases, I'd explain it as both groups having grown up in society where the EU did, in fact, have a greater - and beneficial - influence over their lives than the old Etonians in Westminster. However limited, both groups have also sipped from the cup of proportional representation and multi-party consensual governance, giving them a perspective on the Westminster tribal warfare not shared with the English.

On the old Etonian/ERG side of the fence, I would argue that they were (still are) so wrapped up in their Glorious Days of the Empire that they have failed to appreciate how the EU's "soft" influence on the regional populations was so much more of a threat than the much hyped curved banana regulations and fishing quotas.

For all kinds of reasons, I don't expect to see a fully independent Wales this side of the year 2100, but once Scotland and NI are gone from the Kingdom, I would expect to see the Principality demand, and be granted, a level of autonomy substantially more than the devolution the currently enjoy.

Would you have a link to that analysis? I didn't know that.

Plaid Cymru have been knocking about for some time. They have 10 seats in the assembly and the Welsh Nationalist party have 1. They have a way to go before Welsh independence is talked about with the same frequency as Scottish or Northern Irish independence/Irish reunification.

I've heard, anecdotally of course that similar levels of resentment towards London and Etonian elites very much exists in the North of England as well.

For Celtic nationalists, Brexit could be the gift that keeps on giving but only time will tell.

Panrich

View wrote: »

There is no such third option available to NI.

At this stage, the only way it might happen would be if the Oireachtas were stupid enough to vote us out of the EU and then, in the short few weeks remaining before the end of the year, negotiate and ratify a “mini-EU”/British Isles only Customs Union arrangement with the Brexiters, most of whom would go out of their way to be as awkward as possible about any request from Ireland for such an arrangement.

As such this is a political non-runner, even if weren’t utter economic and political stupidity for us to contemplate leaving the EU in favour of such an arrangement with the U.K.

Looking at this, the best hope for the 'third option' remains the UK at some point coming to it's senses and rejoining the CU/SM. I know that this does not look likely at present but the best interim step towards that would be a border in the Irish sea.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've heard, anecdotally of course that similar levels of resentment towards London and Etonian elites very much exists in the North of England as well.

There has always been a North/South divide in England.

The problem has always to decide where the division should be. Some in London think the Watford Gap should be the division, others put it further north.

Even England has built in divisions built into it as great as that exhibited with Wales.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

There has always been a North/South divide in England.

The problem has always to decide where the division should be. Some in London think the Watford Gap should be the division, others put it further north.

Even England has built in divisions built into it as great as that exhibited with Wales.

Game Of Thrones could come true.

kowloon

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There's definitely a Welsh cultural identity and ethnic group along with their ancient Celtic tongue but Welsh nationalists never seem to make sufficient inroads to suggest that they're a force to be reckoned with.

Talking to a Welsh guy I know it seems that some of that nationalism had been directed against the EU. The EU was some sort of cultural threat to them that would see them all replaced by dirty foreigners.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Would you have a link to that analysis? I didn't know that.

Not immediately available, sorry. But you can try to track down the analysis done by Oxford's Danny Dorling that was reported on in The Times (paywall) subsequently re-reported by other news sites (e.g. The Guardian).

That study is referenced and partially backed up by this LSE opinion on the topic of Welsh independence, citing colleagues' work in other establishments (interesting side note: they attribute the Leave to people who identify as English, rather than those who are ethnically English).

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Plaid Cymru have been knocking about for some time. They have 10 seats in the assembly and the Welsh Nationalist party have 1. They have a way to go before Welsh independence is talked about with the same frequency as Scottish or Northern Irish independence/Irish reunification.

This is what I mean, though. The noise I'm hearing is not coming from Plaid Cymru supporters - it's across the political spectrum; again, somewhat analogous to NI support for a United Ireland coming from people who are not and were never Sinn Féiners.

Watching how this unfolds over the coming decade, both politically and socially in the high-percentage-of-English border areas will be quite fascinating.

dogbert27

kowloon wrote: »

Talking to a Welsh guy I know it seems that some of that nationalism had been directed against the EU. The EU was some sort of cultural threat to them that would see them all replaced by dirty foreigners.

Yeah cos it was the EU who conquered them 500 years or so ago and forced English as the main language for law. :rolleyes:

Saying that you'll find similar Irish views to the EU though!

54and56

It's interesting that this discussion is primarily focused on the motivations for Brexit, Scottish independence and other issues broadly associated with Brexit recently right at the time when the negotiators have (actually) intensified their work to get a deal done with Michel Barnier staying in London over the weekend to keep on working, the teams agreeing to work directly every day going forward including weekends, legal texts being worked through etc etc.

It looks like a landing zone has been identified by both sides and they are now setting aside the megaphone/press/theatrics and are focused on closing a deal.

What does that mean for the key outstanding issues? Where are the compromises being made? What are the surprises likely to be?

This interview with Philip Lamberts yesterday is quite insightful in how it deals with getting a deal the EU wants while allowing BoJo to sell it to the ERG types as a success.

He states that "we have entered the final stretch of the negotiations".

An Ciarraioch

CelticRambler wrote: »

Not immediately available, sorry. But you can try to track down the analysis done by Oxford's Danny Dorling that was reported on in The Times (paywall) subsequently re-reported by other news sites (e.g. The Guardian).

That study is referenced and partially backed up by this LSE opinion on the topic of Welsh independence, citing colleagues' work in other establishments (interesting side note: they attribute the Leave to people who identify as English, rather than those who are ethnically English).




This is what I mean, though. The noise I'm hearing is not coming from Plaid Cymru supporters - it's across the political spectrum; again, somewhat analogous to NI support for a United Ireland coming from people who are not and were never Sinn Féiners.

Watching how this unfolds over the coming decade, both politically and socially in the high-percentage-of-English border areas will be quite fascinating.

Indeed, most of that momentum has been generated by a non-party grouping called Yes Cymru, that aims to expand beyond the Plaid core vote, and appeal to Welsh Labour and Liberal Democrat voters:

https://nation.cymru/news/1000-new-members-join-yescymru-in-a-month/

Strazdas

kowloon wrote: »

Talking to a Welsh guy I know it seems that some of that nationalism had been directed against the EU. The EU was some sort of cultural threat to them that would see them all replaced by dirty foreigners.

Bizarrely though, Wales has very low numbers of EU migrant workers (people naturally don't want to move to an impoverished region).